One logical progression for the "Used Games War" is this:
1. More and more gaming companies adopt a partial unlock system. Some gamers protest, but the prevelence of the system railroads them into either accepting it or choosing from a dwindling selection of games that have no restrictions.
2. Used game sales and game rentals decline drastically over time as more companies restrict features in used games. Companies like Gamestop encounter sales losses to the point where less profitable locations are forced to close. Rental stores downsize their game selection or even remove their game sections entirely due to reduced revenue. Some game publishers adopt a special system that allows rentals to bypass the used game restrictions, but this only slows the game rental industry's slow death (especially since big name companies will use this system to gouge the rental industry, since they now have the power to kill revenue from any given game).
3. Without competition from used and rental copies of their own games, game publishers realize they can increase game prices with less backlash than before. The days of affordable, big budget games comes to a quick end.
4. In a final attempt to end used game sales and trading, game publishers restrict the entire game instead of just multiplayer and further increase the cost of unlocking it. The used game market moves to the internet and is relegated to old games and to releases from companies that actually care about their fanbase (ie. they did not adopt the used game restrictions). The game rental industry finally dies, and companies that rely heavily on used game sales experience massive revenue losses and eventually bankruptcy.
And the end result of this? Without access to used and rental games, your options are "new", "pirated", "old games" (essentially games made around now and in the past), and used games made by companies that actually care about their fanbase (which I'm curious as to just how large a percentage that will be...). Stores that specialize in video games largely die out or diversify as retailers like Best Buy, Wal-Mart, Sears, etc. take over the lion's share of game sales.
I'm sure people will pick this "timeline" apart, but I'd like to see what people's opinions are of the future of used games.
jadaski1
There's no correlation between rentals and game pricing. Game pricing is driven by game budgets (and in the medium and long terms, demand) more than anything (Black Ops still sells for full price because lots of people still buy it, Child of Eden's price has fallen 40% because no one is buying it). Also, there's more price flexibility online (Steam and even PSN) than at retail, and given your thesis that used game prices drag down retail game prices, the opposite should be true.
Also, the notion that companies are inclined to drive up prices (which has a negative effect on sales)ignores the entirety of videogame history. I've been gaming for 34 years and most of that time $50 was the price one paid for games (N64 carts were $65 and in the 16 bit era bigger games cost from 70-90 dollars). 2600 games tended to be developed by one guy and over the course of several months (vs development by teams of up to 200 over the couple of a couple years and sometimes several years) but we pay only 10 bucks more now than we did then. I remember the price of candy bars and books (two other things I was into back then) and they are over 50% more expensive in terms of non-inflation adjusted pricing.
*Shrugs* But if you labour under the delusion an industry that has done a good job of not passing on increasing costs to consumers will choose to push prices through the stratosphere just because game rentals are no longer a factor, I don't know how I can make you see sense.
If a store's business model doesn't allow it to survive by selling games new (each of which costs retailers $48 dollars, translating into a 12 dollar profit per new game sold) then they are doing something very, very, very wrong.
http://www.forbes.com/2006/12/19/ps3-xbox360-costs-tech-cx_rr_game06_1219expensivegames.html?partner=rss
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