PS4 launches in Japan tomorrow. Make your sales predictions.

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#1 Posted by S0lidSnake (29001 posts) -

PS4 has sold 1 million on Day 1 in both NA and European territories so it's going to fun to estimate what it ends up selling in its motherland. The console market in Japan isnt what it used to be, but PS4 preorders have been sold out for months.

I think 300-500K will be a safe bet, but looking at the limited supply in both Europe and NA I have a feeling Sony is saving up for the Japanese launch. My wild prediction is that it ends up selling 1 million either launch day or launch week.

What does everyone else think?

#2 Edited by CarnageHeart (18316 posts) -

The Wii U sold a little over 300K systems launch week in Japan, so I figure the PS4 will sell at least 500K in the same period of time.

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2012-12-11-wii-u-sells-307-471-consoles-in-japan-launch-week-report

#3 Posted by Randolph (10344 posts) -

Well with the console market not really being where the business is anymore over there, I couldn't really say I think they'll hit one million sold launch day. Launch week though, that's doable depending on what their launch lineup is. If they have the same lineup we did, it would seem they don't have a whole lot that would really appeal directly to Japanese gamers just yet.

#4 Edited by S0lidSnake (29001 posts) -

@Randolph: they have yakuza, son!

but yeah they dont have a lot of Japanese games at launch. they shouldve tried to get MGSV or Dark Souls read for launch.

#5 Posted by Metamania (11955 posts) -

@Randolph: they have yakuza, son!

but yeah they dont have a lot of Japanese games at launch. they shouldve tried to get MGSV or Dark Souls read for launch.

What are they getting for launch titles? Just a lot of ports?

#6 Posted by S0lidSnake (29001 posts) -

@S0lidSnake said:

@Randolph: they have yakuza, son!

but yeah they dont have a lot of Japanese games at launch. they shouldve tried to get MGSV or Dark Souls read for launch.

What are they getting for launch titles? Just a lot of ports?

Nope. Even worse. Ports of Western games. Looks like the NA Launch line up with a couple of lame japanese games.

  • - Assassin’s Creed IV: Flag
  • - Battlefield 4
  • - Call of Duty: Ghosts
  • - Dynasty Warriors 8
  • - FIFA 14
  • - Killzone: Shadow Fall
  • - Knack
  • - NBA 2K14
  • - Need for Speed: Rivals
  • - Nobunaga’s Ambition: Creation
  • - Strider
  • - Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition
  • - Tottemo E Mahjong Plus
  • - Yakuza: Ishin!

Available only on PSN:

  • - Contrast [PSN]
  • - Don’t Starve [PSN]
  • - Dream Club: Host Girl On Stage [PSN]
  • - Nikoli no Puzzle 4: Sudoku [PSN]
  • - Resogun [PSN]
#7 Posted by bezza2011 (2200 posts) -

will see i think it may sell pretty well, good price, good piece of kit, they love there tech at the right price, but who knows that line up is quite shocking for japan, i want a review of yakuza i enjoyed the third game i think it was, just want it a little bit less arcadey

#8 Edited by Areez (6278 posts) -

1 million!!! Muuuuuaaaahhhhhh

#9 Posted by tempura13 (406 posts) -

Won't be surprising if it actually hits a million though. They've been anticipating for this, but it would really help if there were more Japanese launch titles to encourage more sales.

#10 Edited by CarnageHeart (18316 posts) -
#11 Posted by The_Last_Ride (68841 posts) -

i think we can expect at least 500-750k if not more

#12 Edited by ZZoMBiE13 (22911 posts) -

I predict they will sell at least 4. Or more.

#13 Edited by The_Last_Ride (68841 posts) -

I predict they will sell at least 4. Or more.

I think you're going to hit your mark man

#14 Posted by ZZoMBiE13 (22911 posts) -

@ZZoMBiE13 said:

I predict they will sell at least 4. Or more.

I think you're going to hit your mark man

You may refer to me as "ORACLE" from now on.

#15 Posted by dvader654 (44752 posts) -

i think we can expect at least 500-750k if not more

I predict less, there is nothing the japanese want on the PS4 that they cant get on PS3.

#16 Posted by ShepardCommandr (2114 posts) -

i dunno maybe 500k?

#17 Posted by The_Last_Ride (68841 posts) -

@The_Last_Ride said:

@ZZoMBiE13 said:

I predict they will sell at least 4. Or more.

I think you're going to hit your mark man

You may refer to me as "ORACLE" from now on.

HAIL TO YOU Oracle! You wise playstation 4 predictor!

#18 Edited by ZZoMBiE13 (22911 posts) -

@ZZoMBiE13 said:

@The_Last_Ride said:

@ZZoMBiE13 said:

I predict they will sell at least 4. Or more.

I think you're going to hit your mark man

You may refer to me as "ORACLE" from now on.

HAIL TO YOU Oracle! You wise playstation 4 predictor!

Peace be with you, my child.

#19 Posted by The_Last_Ride (68841 posts) -

@The_Last_Ride said:

@ZZoMBiE13 said:

@The_Last_Ride said:

@ZZoMBiE13 said:

I predict they will sell at least 4. Or more.

I think you're going to hit your mark man

You may refer to me as "ORACLE" from now on.

HAIL TO YOU Oracle! You wise playstation 4 predictor!

Peace be with you, my child.

All hail you!

#20 Edited by CarnageHeart (18316 posts) -
#21 Posted by S0lidSnake (29001 posts) -

Looks like the PS4 is readily available on store shelves. Sounds like the Xbone in NA. It might be selling well, but the demand is not there.

#22 Posted by Mesomorphin (694 posts) -

A damn hell of alot! Although I dont really see any games avaialble at the moment on the PS4 that would appeal to a japanese audience.

#23 Posted by Randolph (10344 posts) -

Looks like the PS4 is readily available on store shelves. Sounds like the Xbone in NA. It might be selling well, but the demand is not there.

Between a lack of games that really appeal to their tastes, and the fact that overall the Japanese gaming audience is on the go and prefers something they can take with them, it's understandable. They seem to be slower to adopt to new hardware in general. Western gamers are more prone to buying right away on the promise of awesome games to come.

#24 Posted by CarnageHeart (18316 posts) -

Interesting article in the Guardian which talks in part about the weak launch of the PS4 (in terms of Japanese games and consumer interest) but mostly focused on the fact that the Japanese market has shrunk and the developers have aged and lost touch with the increasingly Western market.

I think smaller Japanese publishers (nods towards Atlus) will continue to do okay and maybe even improve, but the big guys who have lost the ability to do anything but a handful of big franchises (and often they do those badly) will continue to decline.

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/feb/22/playstation-4-muted-japanese-launch-shows-how-industry-has-changed?fs=1&source=atom#all/14460cec8108446c

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=774110

In 2002, Japan accounted for 50% of the global video game market. By 2010, it was at 10%. If you go back to the era of PlayStation 1 and 2, you will see it was dominated by Japanese giants like Nintendo, Sony, Capcom, Konami and Namco. The biggest games were arcade conversions – the likes of Tekken, Ridge Racer and Street Fighter – but the biggest console originals came from Japanese studios too: Super Mario, Resident Evil, Final Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid... These were the games everyone was excited by. The top ten best selling games of the nineties were all developed in Japan.

-----------

At the same time economic factors were working against the Japanese industry. An economic recession shrank the domestic market for console games, and hit publisher’s ability to compete in terms of development costs. The Dreamcast title Shenmue, an incredibly prescient, ambitiously sprawling adventure required a reported $70m to develop, almost ruining its publisher Sega – but in the West, among companies like Electronic Arts, Activision and Ubisoft, this would soon be a pretty standard budget. And on the other side of the financial spectrum, a very strong indie scene has developed in the US and Europe, often with the financial backing of larger publishers (there is a thriving indie scene developing in Japan, but it has largely been contained in hobbyist groups). It also seems easier for younger talent to rise into positions of prominence within larger developers whereas in Japan, a rigidly hierarchical management structure can keep fresh talent from blossoming.

#25 Edited by CTR360 (6851 posts) -

500.000 for me

#26 Posted by CarnageHeart (18316 posts) -

@Randolph said:

@S0lidSnake said:

Looks like the PS4 is readily available on store shelves. Sounds like the Xbone in NA. It might be selling well, but the demand is not there.

Between a lack of games that really appeal to their tastes, and the fact that overall the Japanese gaming audience is on the go and prefers something they can take with them, it's understandable. They seem to be slower to adopt to new hardware in general. Western gamers are more prone to buying right away on the promise of awesome games to come.

Yeah, its nutty Sony Japan didn't have anything new ready for the Japanese launch of the PS4. Japan is largely post-console, but still, a good jrpg (or the perpetually in development The Last Guardian) would have helped sales.

#27 Posted by crazyguy111 (151 posts) -

A lot