At this point it's pretty clear that despite what a lot of people originally thought, console sales (particularly the PS3's) aren't going to determine the victor of the next video format. As it should be. Frankly I don't want people who buy a system just to play Final Fantasy or Halo determining how I'll be watching my movies 5 years from now. If I'm going to put my guess out there though, I'd say HD is going to win based off of what I've seen recently.
For the past couple weeks I've been seeing a lot of those HD-DVD commercials with Michael Imperioli. I got to say that's really blowing away any commercial I've seen for Blu-ray. There's a clear message, a sharp look in the commercial, and a noted professional that will grab people's attention. That commercial really puts out a compelling message. Even based on what I know of the strengths and weaknesses of the formats it's almost convinced me to go out and buy one. To a more uneducated consumer I could see how easily they could be sold on it.
Blu-ray still seems to be relying on commercials for special edition DVDs, like the Pirates of the Caribbean movies to get the message out. But those commercials are still first and foremost for a movie, and don't get into what makes Blu-ray special. As it is, unless they're able to show the difference (which they cannot accurately do) I don't think that's the way try to get people to buy the player.
According to a couple sources HD-DVD sales topped Blu-ray for the first time last month, so something's working. And prospects are looking good for the rest of the summer too. Nothing's really going to be decided for about 4 more years, but I got to say I think we'll be watching our movies on HD-DVD when it's all over and done with.
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