Xbox One, PS4 attach rate will be 3.25, says analyst

Cowen & Company's Doug Creutz estimates software attach rate for next-generation systems, believes Battlefield 4 will attach at 30 percent.

The Xbox One and PlayStation 4 will have roughly a 3.25 software attach rate--that is, how many games are sold for every hardware unit purchased--during their initial launch periods, Cowen & Company analyst Doug Creutz said today in a note to investors.

With 18 retail launch-day titles available for Xbox One and 14 for the PS4, the 3.25 aggregate attach rate suggests an average 20 percent launch window attach rate across all titles. Battlefield 4 will perform slightly better, Creutz said, attaching to Xbox One and PS4 at a rate of around 30 percent at launch. Madden NFL 25 and NBA 2K14 are also expected to attach at higher rates.

Games like Zumba Fitness, Zoo Tycoon, Fighter Within, and Injustice: Gods Among Us will have lower attach rates than the 20 percent average, Creutz noted.

By comparison, the Xbox 360's attach rate was 4.2 during its initial November-December launch window in 2005, while the PlayStation 3's was 1.9 in 2006, Creutz said. The Xbox 360 retailed for $299/$299 at launch, while the PS3 went for $499/$599, meaning the total hardware/software spend for each platform was roughly consistent in the mid-$600 range.

The 3.25 attach rate for Xbox One and PS3 models a more conservative average total spend, even before the 7-8 years of inflation are factored in, Creutz said. The PS4 launched last Friday and sold 1 million units in North America during its first 24 hours. The Xbox One goes on sale this Friday, November 22.

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Discussion

102 comments
AzureBonds76
AzureBonds76

I think the numbers are more like this: 33% of gamers buy Kinect Sports 33% buy CoD and /or Madden  33% buy the rest

devilzzzwin
devilzzzwin

I am only buying .25 games for the console I choose.

roganth
roganth

I'm not getting a PS4 until the June or September at the earliest.  I don't see any games I like coming soon, and even by Sep 2014 the games I have my eye on also come out on current gen consoles or PC.  There doesn't seem any clear incentive for me to upgrade.  Even the graphics on the new consoles don't seem that much better (AC4 PS3/4)

Sitting on my PC and 360 for now

GoldenElementXL
GoldenElementXL

I have Killzone, COD, NBA 2K14 and Madden for PS 4. I already have Battlefield for Xbox One and will purchase DR3, Ryse and Forza on Friday. Other than those I don't know what I would buy. Oh and Wii U owners need to buy Mario 3D World from the looks of it.

da_chub
da_chub

I bought a wii u in launch window and 5 games day 1. That counts. I won't be getting a ps4 til its 1st price drop. Even 3 games +system +taxs put it over 650. A lot to spend on a pretty game.

beansbeans
beansbeans

I am buying exactly 3.25 games for the  XBONE:

1)BF4

2)Dead Rising 3

3)NBA2K14

3.25) Killer Instinct


MooncalfReviews
MooncalfReviews

Judging by current games linups for both consoles, my "attach rate" would be 0.01.

Hurvl
Hurvl

3,25 sounds quite low, but that's just the initial launch period. Many are also saying that the launch titles of a new console often aren't very desirable and that devs need a year or two to figure the consoles out. Once that time has passed, you can expect better games, because the devs can then focus on creating a great game rather than simply getting it to work at all on new hardware.

nyran125tk
nyran125tk

Attach rate....


Sometimes i just hate science studies. especially sales science studies, i dont like feeling like a animal in a study cage. I dont want to be attached to anything. Accept my BALLS!!!


that goes for you to fecal matter studies. I don't want to know theres crap on my toothbrush.!!!

ThePowerOfHAT
ThePowerOfHAT

I think my main question is whether this is supposed to be the number of hard copy game sold or if this also includes downloadable titles.

bzrigger
bzrigger

So someone please explain this "attach rate" number.  Does it mean the average number of games purchased with the console?  Or during the launch window?  Per year?  Or for the life of the console?

wexorian
wexorian

Those analysts getting payed for being mister obvious ye?

Dannystaples14
Dannystaples14

Attach rate, what a stupid term. A bunch of hacks are trying to sound smart again!

lostn
lostn

I want to know how an analayst manages to get their attach rate prediction accurate to two decimal places.

hoscba
hoscba

Wow here in Australia the Xbox 360 back in '07 was around $600 AUD and the PS3 was $999...

wolfyrabbit
wolfyrabbit

my ps3 attach rate is like 50 or more (not during launch period of course :p)

dreamcastdre
dreamcastdre

For sure, zzgamerzz. There are some heavy hitters coming early next year so we should be in for some good times!

hadlee73
hadlee73

The 0.25 is made up of the single player campaigns of COD Ghosts and Battlefield 4 combined :P

AzureBonds76
AzureBonds76

@roganth It's hard to tell, but games look much better on the PS4 than 360 or ps4. I wasn't so sure either untill I played them.  It's very nice to play BF4 at 60 fps. Also AC4, being the game that I thought looked the most similar to it's 360/ps3 version totally blew me away last night. The scene where Edward comandeers the Jackdaw and flees with it in a hurricane was amazing. 

AzureBonds76
AzureBonds76

@GoldenElementXL Wish I could get to play DR3. Reviwer on Kotaku said the campaign is 16 + hrs long. Plus it would be nice to take your time and explore without the time restraint. 

Aletunda
Aletunda

@MooncalfReviews Australian attach rate would be much higher if we payed an equal amount for the consoles and games, the Xbone costs $600 here in australia = $565 USD for the unit and $85 USD per game

jimbothef
jimbothef

@Hurvl I'd say that 3.25 sounds pretty good, considering that the people buying these consoles are already dropping $400-$500 minimum (more if they were forced to buy them in a bundle with some other crap they didn't really want) and as you mentioned, the lack of really intriguing launch titles.

Aletunda
Aletunda

@bzrigger I think its games purchased at the time you pickup/purchase the console

rokketdawg
rokketdawg

That is term that has been around for longer than you've probably been alive. Nothing to do with anyone "trying" to sound smart.

rokketdawg
rokketdawg

Probably an estimate base on pre-sales. They could probably get fairly accurate numbers for future sales by basing the numbers off of sales of previous installments of the games and how much difference there was between those installments. 30% sounds like a fair assessment when you look back at the previous generation consoles.

tightwad34
tightwad34

@lostn They are analyists. Doesn't matter how they came up with their BS. Only thing that matters to them is they get paid for all the nonsense.

lostn
lostn

@wolfyrabbit That's not an attach rate. That's just how many games you own. Attach rate is an average, and one person can never be an average. You're an outlier.

Hurvl
Hurvl

@hadlee73 I'd rather wait until the price is 0.25 of what it used to be, but I often wait until it's like 0.10, hehe. That's because of my backlog. Time is money and the more time you spend waiting, the less money you spend.

charlieholmes
charlieholmes

@jimdove2 Normally we don't entertain you idiots since you are so narrow minded that you can't see your toes past your belly.  But, most console gamers are very likely to have a gaming PC too, or to have come from that platform previous to a console.  So, if you really want to believe whatever is superior, keep smoking whatever it is you have and enjoy yourself.  Most everybody else is out just to have a good time regardless of how or where they get it from as opposed to worrying about how everyone else gets their fun.

loudroom
loudroom

Who cares about PC gaming, every one does it. but who wants to spend hours at a desk getting a hunch back and a sore wrist when you can sit back in front of a big screen with surround sound and plays some decent games.

PC only offers shooters,  whos cares. No one cares about PC gaming except a few dorks who need to get out and find a girl.

crownedeagle
crownedeagle

@jimdove2 The system plus the games equals the amount of a gaming rig?? Ok even if the were true what is a gaming rig without games? you probably would need to add 3 games to the total as well... so your point fails to see the light. by the way I have a PC gaming rig. i5 3570k OC, Asrock z77 Extreme MOBO, 5570 1 GB OC GPU, and 12 GB RAM . yeah its fun, but there is a different quality in console play. This quality beats PC gaming any day.

bzrigger
bzrigger

@Aletunda @bzrigger Thanks for the info.  Makes me wonder though, if they don't just look at game sales around the same time. I purchased my PS4 from Amazon, but walked into a Gamestop to pick up my 2 games. Just wondering how would they make the connection outside of looking at the proximity of dates?

Dannystaples14
Dannystaples14

@rokketdawg What I meant was a bunch of VERY boring people, probably in suits, probably pulling six figure bonuses, sit down and think up this shit, assigning arbitrary labels to the most mundane crap ever.

It is the same when you go to one of those stupid training days for random working class jobs. Like someone who works as a cashier having to go to discrimination seminars or some shit.

Where they just have to sit there and listen to some ass spouting stupid phrases that are obviously conjured up to force the session to last more than three seconds by making it harder for people to understand what the hell they are talking about to start with.

At least in something like science the terms you use are logical in some way. Named after a person, or is Latin or something.

You know what is a proper skill? Being able to communicate ANYTHING to ANYONE. 

lostn
lostn

@rokketdawg I just don't know what 3+ games people are planning on buying this holiday season.

Hurvl
Hurvl

@lostn @wolfyrabbit Lol, everyone here is probably an outlier, because the majority of console owners don't read or comment on internet gaming articles.

hadlee73
hadlee73

@Tubatica @jimdove2 To be fair (comparison-wise), building a decent PC gaming rig (one of my favourite hobbies) and buying 3 new release games from Steam at the same time adds up to quite a bit more than the cost of a PS4 and 3 games. In the long term however PC gaming becomes much cheaper due to game costs coming down faster than console games, as well as the upgrade-ability of a rig (without the need to buy/build a new one).

conphot100
conphot100

Forza 5 only has half the tracks and cars of Forza 4 so I refuse to call that's full game either. Forza 5 prologue more like!