Thorin's threads: 10 post-Copenhagen Games CS:GO conclusions

This article was originally published on GameSpot's sister site onGamers.com, which was dedicated to esports coverage.

As exciting as matches and tournaments are on their own, I always find the context surrounding matches to be a key factor in enhancing the experience of watching the matches unfold. Knowing the historical component of the impact, a win or loss can have on a player's or team's career heightens the excitement. Seeing how individual performances can shape the way we think of players, make the big pressure moment they rise to or fall from only more intense. Thorin's threads picks out key story-lines to follow, with their historical and cultural context explained.

Here are 10 conclusions following Copenhagen Games.

NiP are the best team in the world

NiP's loss in the EMS One Katowice final left the top end of the CS:GO world in a very confusing place. NiP had been the most consistent team over the previous months, yet had won no significant tournaments and thus couldn't be declared the best team by default. Virtus.pro had shot to first place, but with no previous resume of good placings to cement their claim to being the best. fnatic had won Dreamhack Winter, but then never placed top two again. Titan had won the Dreamhack Invitational, but then flunked out in the group stage of Katowice. Just who was the best team in the world and on what basis?

At the time, I gave NiP the title by default, but knowing that Copenhagen Games would very likely decide who was truly number one. What's great about how the event played out is that it left us with two teams in final who could each reasonably be crowned the world's best team if they emerged the victor. With NiP taking the title, they secured the significant offline tournament win they needed to, added to their incredibly stable repeated top two placings, ensure they are now considered the world's best CS:GO team. The question was never if NiP were an elite team, they have been in the final of every tournament they've played over the last five months, but more if they were capable of winning titles again. That question was answered in Copenhagen.

That NiP got to win over the only team to ever truly humiliate them offline was significant too. With the way NiP were bum-rushed out of the EMS final, looking tentative and scared, bleeding rounds to a Polish team who looked unstoppable, it would have been too easy to label Virtus.pro as the NiP killers and imagine pasha and the gang would continue to haunt GeT_RiGhT's dreams. In fact, if we look back at that final now we can see the seeds of NiP at the very least having parity with the Poles.

Despite the atmosphere seeming to be NiP getting completely rolled over, and make no mistake they were never in that final, they still managed to get 9 and 10 rounds on the two maps they lost, including the dreaded mirage. That's with fifflaren making it seem like NiP were playing 4v5 for much of the series. Consider that their gamble to even allow mirage to get through the ban phase was a huge risk and one could easily see a scenario in which they'd banned mirage and then delivered a much more significant series, either winning a map or having a much better chance on train.

Let's not forget either, it was only in that final that NiP had struggled, during the rest of Katowice they had looked imperious. In Copenhagen they faced more resistence early on, as Dignitas really put it to them in the first map. NiP survived and then showed their superior class, returning from a deficit and then smashing the overtime session. Upon reaching the final, they correctly banned out mirage and thus we had a more competitive series. For what a CT sided game CS:GO usually is, this final was all about the T side performances. On train NiP almost managed a monster comeback as T, barring GeT_RiGhT's knife mishap. On inferno they looked to be in serious danger after only securing 9 CT rounds, only to win without losing a round on the T side.

The decider, dust2, was a close affair, but NiP came up with the big rounds and clutches that they'd been unable to get in Poland. GeT_RiGhT was back in peak form, where he had been one of the players, relative to his role, who had struggled at EMS. NiP are rightfully back in place as the world's best team, which isn't to say they won't lose against Virtus.pro or Titan, but that they are the best team against the entire field of top teams. It took them more than six months, but NiP won a significant CS:GO title again. Welcome back Ninjas.

GeT_RiGhT is still the best player in the world

When Titan ascended to the position of world's best team, it was off the back of shox transforming into a monster in the CS:GO servers, seemingly never putting in a sub-par performance. GeT_RiGhT was still right there neck and neck with him for the title of the best individual player, but now he had legitimate competition. With Titan dropping off and NiP continuining to hold steady in top two finishes, GeT_RiGhT once again found his claim to the throne strengthening. A poor overall series in the EMS One final was one of the first times we've ever seen him vulnerable in a big game.

Any worries about the Swede's form can be put to rest now, as he dominated the Copenhagen Games final and can rightfully be considered the MVP of the event. When Dignitas was mounting their big lead in the opening map of the semi-final, it came with GeT_RiGhT barely having any impact on the game. When Alesund turned up, NiP began winning rounds and eventually the map and series. Against Virtus he was a man possessed and would not let his team lose, even on the opening map. What makes GeT_RiGhT so special is not just the heights of his peak performances, which are incredibly high, but the sheer consistency of good performances he can put out. His team are the best in the world and he is the best player, seems like a year ago again.

Virtus.Pro are a legitimately elite team

Had Virtus failed to reach the final here, then questions could very reasonably have been asked about the legitimacy of their win in Poland. I've never bought into all that "the home crowd cheered them on and helped them take the title" nonsense, being as I don't believe in players magically being better inside a virtual server on a computer, on the basis of someone of their nationality clapping very loudly and shouting the right words. Back in the real world, I think such environments create high pressure situations and in those kind of tense moments, some players crack.

While Snax probably did have the series of his life in Katowice, it was the failure of key NiP players, from fifflaren to their two stars (GeT_RiGhT and f0rest) that had more of an impact on Virtus taking the title. What's key is that that didn't happen in Copenhagen, and thus you saw a much more competitive series. Looking on the Virtus side of things, they showed they are are one of the world's elite sides, seemingly unlikely to lose to anyone other than NiP and perhaps Titan, with the latter yet to be tested in an offline Bo3. Had Virtus won CPH Games, I would have given them the title of world number ones, but NiP were the better team in that tournament.

Virtus have had easier brackets than one might expect, at least based on what we know now, as they've managed to avoid playing Titan and fnatic, despite being on the same side as them. Perhaps those teams are falling off, but for right now it seemed like LGB and LDLC were potentially easier match-ups for byali and company. Virtus handled those teams when they needed to, so for now they've done almost everything that could be asked of them. For me, they are the second best team in the world.

NEO's days as a star are long gone

NEO is the greatest CS 1.6 player of all time in my opinion and I would pick him first of any player in that game's history were I hypothetically starting a team. CS:GO has been a very different beast for NEO though, and remains one is far from taming. Where players like shox and GeT_RiGhT look at ease in the game, NEO still seems to be searching for his identity within the game, no longer the player with immense talents who merely needed to control his emotional state in order to triumph.

NEO has improved over the life of the game, with his last two tournaments seeing him produce a few good individual performances, but he is far from the superstar status he enjoyed in 1.6. A look at the past two big finals he has played in, in particular, highlights that he isn't even one of the stars of his team, nevermind the world. NEO doesn't need to be a star for Virtus.pro to win, but when a name of this magnitude wins and isn't a star, then it's worth mentioning as I've seen numerous commentators and pundits act as if "well, no surprise to see NEO back on top, of course", as if his impact or role within the game were comparable to 1.6, which neither is.

Over the last two big tournaments, NEO has managed a good performance once against LDLC and once against LGB, hardly the world's elite competition. Until he is showing up in the big games against the world's best team, I can't consider him a star. Right now he's battling with Snax to be the third best player in his own team.

pasha is the best Polish player and one of the world's best players

Look at who was topping the scoreboard for Virtus.pro over the last two events and you could be forgiven for thinking Snax or byali, the two new players, were their stars. Snax had the series of his life in the EMS One final, playing at an insane level, but came back down to Earth for Copenhagen Games. byali was impressive in the EMS final and continued to be a force in the Copenahgen final. Neither is the best player in Virtus.pro though, as pasha has been completely smashing it in terms of frag contribution and consistency. If you're the second best performer in almost every game for your team and nobody is consistently the best, then that makes you the best player, by virtue of consistency.

In 1.6 pasha was a streaky player, due to his super aggressive AWPing style and zero fucks given decision-making. In CS:GO he has toned that down a bit and established himself as a consistent performer for his team, repeatedly giving them chances to win big games. For now pasha is not only the best player in their team but deserves a spot among the best players in the entire world. I think byali comes in second on Virtus, with NEO and Snax battling for the third spot. Back in 1.6 it was pasha who was the third best player, now he is the man carrying the load for players like NEO and TaZ, something one would never have imagined saying.

Titan are in big trouble

Titan came into Copenhagen Games still in the top three of the world rankings, by virtue of their strong final third of 2013 and there not having been enough events so far in 2014 to knock them down. Their win at the Dreamhack Stockholm Invitational suggested they would still be a favourite if they faced NiP, so all eyes looked to how far they would go in Denmark. When Titan flunked the group stage of EMS One there was a logic to it that made it not seem as bad: they'd lost to Virtus.pro on mirage, a map everyone now knows to ban, and then they'd been eliminated by HellRaisers, a stacked skill-based line-up who can upset any elite team over a single map.

Copenhagen Games was an entirely different kind of failure though, as Titan should have been clear to run right through to the semi-final at the very least. I had been interested to see how Virtus.pro would match-up against the French-Belgian sides' tactical approach, instead I never got to see such a match. Titan losing out to domestic rivals LDLC isn't entirely shocking, as domestic match-ups always tend to be closer than international ones, but the nature of it was disappointing for those who considered Titan an elite side.

Firstly they played train and lost it, a map they are known for simply not playing. In fact, the last time they had played it in an offline tournament was in February of 2013, at Mad Catz Vienna. I think a team like Titan definitely could be good on train, or at least good enough to have a full rotation of maps to use against others in the pick/ban phase, but their narrow low here on the opening map might have been avoided if they'd gone with another map for now. The second map, mirage, is one which they used to be excellent on, back when it was the special edition version, and still looked decent on until recently.

Losing to LDLC by itself is not unforgivable, two of the players in that line-up also defeated them in the ESWC final, again on mirage. What's a problem is that Titan has now failed to even reach the top four of the last two big events and has racked up a series of losses to supposedly lesser teams (iBUYPOWER, HellRaisers and LDLC) over what's been of 2014 so far. Their win at the Dreamhack Invitational was impressive, but it's not enough to hold them in place in the top two anymore. I think it's even debateable that they've dropped below dignitas and into fourth in the overall rankings now. Another poor performance at an offline event will see them plummet out of the top four entirely.

Titan badly need to get their shit together before they become just another good team in an increasingly wide pool of sides that occupy such a title. They still seem capable of beating the elite team, which means that the Starladder event next week will still be a good chance to take an offline title, but their form against the lesser teams has gotten far too shaky. For a team who have been living together and bootcamping, one would have expected better performances than the ones we've seen so far.

Welcome Dignitas to the top four teams in the world

dignitas is a team that is filled with Denmark's best aimers and has a line-up which is identical, barring Xyp9x, from the one they had in early 2013. With that level of talent, one would expect them to be competitive at the big offline tournaments and that has thusfar been the case in 2014. After a poor showing at the Dreamhack Invitational, they've delivered back-to-back top four finishes at EMS One Katowice and Copenhagen Games. To get to the semi-final in Poland, they handled HellRaisers. In that semi-final they found themselves completely annihilated by NiP, getting only 11 rounds over the two maps.

In Denmark, the native team were able to defeat fnatic over two overtime maps to reach the semi-finals of another tournament. Again they faced NiP and again the maps would be inferno and then nuke. There-in lay the problem for dignitas, as they don't play train and thus the series against NiP will always be contested over inferno, nuke and dust2, which plays to NiP's favour. This time around, though, dignitas looked to be in position to win the opening map, winning 11:4 as CT and then going up 14:8 at one point. Then everything fell apart for them, NiP brought the game to over and then the Swedes rolled them completely in the extra session.

On nuke they again managed to make the game competitive, but again NiP took the win and the series 2:0. dig's problem is that their CT sides are very strong, but they rely entirely too much on them. Facing the elite teams, they struggle to be competitive on their terrorist sides. With CT rounds being easier to win on many maps, due to the inherent map biases, the best teams in the world will always be those who can win T rounds, as NiP showed in the final. dig's win in Denmark shows that they are now a solid third or fourth best in the world, displacing an ailing fnatic side from the top four, but they still have a ways to go before they can truly contest the likes of NiP and Virtus.pro.

It also doesn't help that their aim-based style means they play right into the hands of GeT_RiGhT and f0rest, who without fail go ham on them when their teams face each other.

fnatic are not an elite team

When fnatic won the Dreamhack Winter final it was a fluke, an unlikely event which will probably never be replicated. They ran through an easy bracket draw and then produced an incredible final series performance, one they've never come close to the level of again, to beat NiP, the game's greatest ever team. Since then, they got convincingly beaten by NiP and Titan at the Dreamhack Invitational, fell to LGB in the quarter-final of EMS One and lost at Copenhagen Games in the same stage to dignitas. Failing to even finish top four at the two big tournaments following their Dreamhack win simply isn't good enough to keep them in the top four of the world rankings. fnatic have shown that they are not an elite team, they're merely one of the best of the next bunch.

Their losses to LGB and dignitas were by no means stomps, they were in both series and close to winning them, but those are not elite teams they were facing. They still have time and tournaments ahead to prove themselves, but for now fnatic look like they are destined to remain in the 5th-8th realm of CS:GO teams. The initial problem I would identify is a lack of star firepower. The players who are considered the stars of the team are fairly inconsistent, some good performances from flusha aside. With LGB boasting so much aim talent, one wonders if roster moves will really not be considered by the two teams, being as each has what the other needs.

Read up on the history of this fnatic team in this article I wrote after Dreamhack Winter.

LGB aren't going to win any big tournaments

LGB are the hot new team everyone wants to fuck, I mean see play. Their roster is packed with aim talent who is confident and they play an exciting up-tempo brand of CS:GO. Colour commentator and pundit lurppis gave a pretty apt analogue for the Swedish side, comparing them to his 69N-28E Finnish teams, which fit the same bill of skills and strengths. Much like that team, though, this LGB team is a million miles from actually winning a big tournament, despite their recent finishes. Their problem is that for all their aim talent and explosiveness, they would need a miracle streak of series to win a big tournament, which just isn't realistic. This team is not going to beat three good teams in a row in series to win a big tournament.

LGB will always be a team who suffer from inconsistency as long as they have this line-up and this approach to the game, it's simply the case for these kinds of line-ups: great for upsets and exciting matches but pretty poor for winning titles. Winning titles comes from being consistent and able to grind out wins, which itself is an approach which means a team must be able to execute strategies and retake sites even when its stars are not delivering big performances. That comes down to reading the game, execution on the T side and teamplay on the CT side. LGB are a lot of fun to watch, but they're no elite team in CS:GO.

Read more about their history in this article by lurppis.

LDLC significantly improved their stock

LDLC are sometimes portrayed as a laughing stock amongst the top teams, since they have seemed so incredibly online over the first portion of the year. When you can smash anyone online but can't even crack top four offline, other top teams won't take you seriously. Their finish in Copenhagen finally put some legitimacy behind LDLC's online performances. In Katowice they lost the eventual champions, but they were crushed so hard that they can barely use that as an excuse.

In Denmark they plyed the same team and the same maps again, this time playing inferno competitively, winning dust2 and only losing heavily on mirage. Being as they had beaten Titan on mirage, one cannot blame for them being willing to play it against Virtus, who have lost on it before, to LGB in Katowice. I think LDLC had a good run, but they are still stuck in that 5th-8th bracket, but with a possibility for some solid top four finishes, when they get the right bracket. They still have problems, but they look somewhat like a French LGB in as much as they are exciting and capable of upsetting bigger teams, even if they won't be winning the tournament any time soon.

Photo credit: fragbite