Software sales rebound in September, PS3 may top hardware - Analysts

Wedbush Morgan's Pachter, EEDAR's Divnich project double-digit game growth last month, say Sony has most to gain from price cut.

It has been six full months since the so-called "recession-resistant" gaming industry has posted anything other than double-digit year-over-year software sales declines in the US at retail. However, the industry may finally be ready to emerge from its funk, as a pair of prominent game-industry analysts both project double-digit sales growth during September.

Has the PS3's day come?

The NPD Group is expected to release its monthly US retail sales recap next Thursday, and Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter issued an industry note to investors today forecasting $750 million in software revenue for the month. That figure is a solid 21 percent above September 2008, which saw software sales of $618 million.

With Microsoft pegging Halo 3: ODST's September sales at 2.5 million, Pachter said The Beatles: Rock Band sold 1.3 million units in the US, outpacing Guitar Hero 5's 700,000 units. US retail sales of Madden NFL 10 hit 600,000 for the month, Pachter believes, with other projections including Marvel: Ultimate Alliance 2 at 450,000 and Need for Speed: Shift selling 250,000.

Pachter believes that the recent hardware price cuts for the Xbox 360, PlayStation 3, and Wii will sustain sales growth through the end of the year. Namely, the prolific analyst said that Sony has the most to gain from its introduction of the $299 PS3 Slim.

"We believe that the recent round of price cuts may benefit the PS3 the most in coming months, given that unit sales last year were only 1.5 million for the September-December 2008 period," Pachter wrote. "The Xbox 360 has outsold the PS3 for the past 13 months, likely due to a higher perceived value proposition. … We think that the PS3 will outsell the Xbox 360 in September, and may continue to do so for the rest of the year."

Laying out those figures, Pachter projected that PS3 sales would spike 76 percent year-over-year to 410,000, with Wii sales slipping 45 percent to 390,000. Microsoft's system, he believes, will see sales grow a marginal 1 percent to 350,000 units, though Pachter believes the publisher has a number of options to regain ground, should Sony's system begin to pull away.

"Microsoft has the ability to lower price yet again, but we anticipate the introduction of a more feature-packed Xbox 360 in early 2010 (likely with a 250GB hard drive) at the same $299 price point; we think that Microsoft will cut price only if it begins to lose significant market share to Sony," he said.

Electronic Entertainment Design and Research analyst Jesse Divnich offered a more cautious take on September software sales, projecting a 16 percent year-over-year climb to $715 million. However, Divnich noted that the double-digit growth isn't likely to continue through the remainder of the year. October software, he said, should creep up by a high single-digit margin, with low double-digits and single-digit growth following in November and December.

Offering an anticipated breakdown of results, Divnich forecast Halo 3: ODST sales to be 1.8 million, some 700,000 units below Microsoft's aforementioned count. Wii Sports Resort followed with 500,000 units, Divnich projected, with The Beatles: Rock Band on the Wii and Xbox 360 combining for 675,000 units. Divnich's other top-sellers included Marvel: Ultimate Alliance 2 (X360 - 300,000), Madden NFL 10 (X360 - 275,000), and Batman: Arkham Asylum (X360, PS3 - 250,000, 250,000).

Divnich also took a crack at hardware sales, projecting, like Pachter, that Sony's system will top the chart with 400,000 units. Wii sales were estimated to be 375,000 units, holding a slight lead over the Xbox 360's projected 370,000 units.

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Discussion

361 comments
Babywarrior5
Babywarrior5

Finally, the it's the PS3's time to shine. It's shaping up to be an excellent year for Sony; lots of great new games (Uncharted 2, Ratchet and Clank, anybody?), a price drop, confimed 350gb model, and Blu-Ray keeps picking up power. It's an excellent time to be a PS3 owner, if I may say so myself. :)

GOAT_DUDE
GOAT_DUDE

For some reason the new PS3 $299 price doesn't look as scary as the previous $399 price.

hi-buzz
hi-buzz

PS3 will b KING !!!!

Somebody89
Somebody89

Nice to see The Beatles do so well. I thought GH 5 would outsell but I guess not. Then again the overall quality and feel of The Beatles is amazing.

steg41
steg41

PS3 Rules. No doubt about it.

KillerWabbit23
KillerWabbit23

I own a PS3 and a Wii. I want a 360. The only reason I don't have one is, as a young teenager, I don't have the finances for XBL. Nor do I have the ability to get Halo/GOW/other M games. Which, admittedly, sucks. But that doesn't mean I hate my PS3, or my Wii (which I haven't played in a while). These flame wars are just pointless. I bet that most of the 360/PS3 fanboys out there only have the one system, and don't have anything else to do. If I get thumbs-downed for this, it only further proves my point.

DiscGuru101
DiscGuru101

The late bloomer rises. I am for the first time tempted to buy a PS3. But I will wait, for at least another year.

rockutd
rockutd

Fans boys pls get out off here

Zerosumgame
Zerosumgame

Told you loooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooong tme ago PS3 is the king of console, l got the eye camera today, it blew the xbox cam right out of the door, keep watching and learn Micro$oft. I got all 3 console at home, but my tv only got 2 input, guess what, I pluged in PS3 ad Wii, xbox was left out and I am ok with that.

rexCo
rexCo

These analysts never know what they're talking about. Sony's price drop will probably increase sales drastically, but I don't know about outselling both the 460 and Wii... If people had half a brain though, they'd start getting the PS3 instead of a normal Bluray player and we'd see a lot higher numbers. I'll be getting mine soon, completing my trio for this generation of consoles. Either way, hopefully they're right and the gaming industry picks up a bit towards the winter/holidays.

max-Emadness
max-Emadness

can someone please explain to why fanboys of different consoles hate each other and their consoles so much. i own an xbox 360 and i love it to death but i really want a ps3 as well.in my opinion xbox live is better than ps3s online network but i want someone who isn't a fanboy to tell me which is better Xbox or ps3.

CamiKitten
CamiKitten

Good going Sony, now please fix my poor broken phatty for free ;_; I've played it for 2 loyal years ;_;

justhat1
justhat1

lets look at the facts every system has thier pros and cons as such at this point in time to still be arguing over which console is better is pointless whatever console u own enjoy it bottom line 360(halo/xboxlive/)wii(mario/familyfun)ps3(gow3/uncharted2/killzone2)the ps3 slim price drop was much needed,the wii price drop wasnt deep enough and the 360 will drop again in the near future so whatever u own enjoy and lets hope the make good games because in the end its about the games!

Bashers79
Bashers79

I'm with sluffmochildeater, I own an Xbox and I've recently bought a PS3 Slim (which I'm very pleased with). I'll probably only be buying exclusive games for my PS3 because thats what i bought it for, that and its blu-ray player. All multi-format games like CoD and Batman etc. I will get for my Xbox as I prefer the controller and most of my mates own and play online with their 360's. I think after the surge in PS3 Slim sales dies down a bit you'll find that Xbox will still be there selling consoles and chugging out quality games, and all the Sony Fan boys who are shouting about the death of the 360 will be proven wrong. Long live gaming and games consoles, down with Fan boys!

Bevmo
Bevmo

I got a ps3..and umm..I WANT VOICE CONFERENCES AND VOICE MESSAGES NOW!!

gilligan156
gilligan156

[quote="TevoxZi"] GT5 being longer in development gives it more time to get better [/quote] Just like Duke Nukem Forever!

gilligan156
gilligan156

I own a 360 and a PS3. They are both wonderful, but I play non-exlusives on my 360 - XBox Live is just a better system than PSN. No contest. I sold my Wii to a 55-year old man off of craigslist who was really excited about Wii Golf.

ymladdych
ymladdych

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

sluffmochildeater
sluffmochildeater

I can't believe people are still arguing over which console is better. I own all three consoles and the only reason I play non exclusives on my 360 is because I like the controller and my friends have 360s. I'm sure other people play their PS3 more for the same reason. Outside of that the games are basically the same experience. They all have their small benefits and flaws.

yeastori
yeastori

TevoxZi I agree with yours views man cause like Xbox really has bad graphics and the detail mask it but if you stare at a multi platform game you'll see that the ps3 version has actual 3D detail and clarity while xbox version uses lots of flat art on character models and background to make it look next gen.

TevoxZi
TevoxZi

@darklight4 Well, I personally don't have anything against Xbox 360 nor it's owners, seeing my cousin owns one and they're just consoles to keep people entertained. I just don't like Microsoft, because of the way they act all greedy, which is why I'll never buy a Microsoft product again, seeing I once bought a webcam from them and pretty much instantly changed it for a Logitech webcam. Their Windows OS is pretty good though, but even that's flawed in it's own many ways. Specs are specs, they won't change no matter what fanboys say. PS3 is stronger than Xbox 360, but the advantage of the specs is up to the gamedevelopers.. Thanks for agreeing with me, take care. :)

darklight4
darklight4

@TevoxZi well said i agree with you 100% PS3 is more powerful than the 360 but i own both consoles and well you can clearly tell the difference in performance but i enjoy both consoles equally but unfortunatly fanboys just wont listen to facts

TevoxZi
TevoxZi

@MagicOneUp [quote="MagicOneUp"]@TevoxZi ok dude, how can you explain why most 360 ports to the ps3 are running at lower resolution, slower frame rates ect... when IF the ps3 is much powerful in term of hardware structures? shouldn't it be done with ease? blu ray has more capability, arent most of the data are compressed? i mean by your explanations, games on the ps3 should be 3 times longer, audio should be all dts 7.1? so far i have not seen on the ps3, maybe sony is keeping it for its 'future proof' console.... by that time i will be playing 720.[/quote] Because, it's harder to develop for PS3's architecture, isn't it obvious? If it's harder, then it's harder to advantage. Synergistic Processing Elements aren't often used elsewhere than on PS3, like CPU cores those are very often (actually pretty much always the ones most used in PC gaming.) Don't believe me? Then see for yourself that Uncharted: Drake's Fortune (2007) -game for example used only 25-30% of PS3's CPU specs and it's still one visually awesome looking game. Besides, making multiplatform games too different from each others, would cost a lot of time and money for the game developers to do, besides making them too different would get some fanboy whines too. :p Which is why the only games truly trying to advantage BD and PS3's specs are the exclusive -games and when game porting turns from PS3 to Xbox 360. There's no IF. - Parts 2006 are better than Parts 2005. - The more the parts cost the better they are. Uncharted 2, MGS4, Killzone 2, LittleBigPlanet are few examples of games that wouldn't be able to be run on Xbox 360, because of the disc-capacity. Uncharted 2 is also specwise impossible for 360. Maybe you'll be playing 720, but I know for sure that I'll never be touching a Microsoft console seeing how crappy they've been. [quote="MagicOneUp"]Natal is the future, the 'wand' thing is the past. i can see sony made a last minute attachment attempt like their 'sixaxis' with their wand. more exclusives for ps3? i pre ordered forza3, GT5 for you? is that game has a released date yet, i mean its be announced back in 2006! Allen Wake just has more action than Heavy Rain.... i'm playing Star Ocean for a second time now, oh, it'll be release on the ps3... next... year... i clocked Gears2 about 4 time now.... playing Halo odst and cant wait for Reach....[/quote] PS2 EyeToy wasn't revolutionary in the prev. gen, so what makes you think Natal will be in this generation? Besides M$'s webcams have sucked so far, so what makes you think their motion controller, which is a camera will be much better as quality? You can only play casual games and racing on Natal, so if you're a casual gamer, you'll probably have fun, but it's pretty much impossible to play FPS -type games on Natal, because you can't turn 180 degrees, change weapons properly, someone can bypass the room and f--- the game up with. You can't even move with the camera, light adjustments can f--- it up with. Trust me, Natal won't be revolutionary. Besides most gamers rather stick with controllers than switch to motion controls. GT5 being longer in development gives it more time to get better, besides GT5 itself has more than Forza 2 and 3's cars combined. Also, Halo is one milked franchise. :) [quote="MagicOneUp"] why is the ps3 is the most expensive console on earth? wifi built in[/quote] Because better parts cost more money to make. You obviously haven't bought PC parts. [quote="MagicOneUp"] i dont want/need blu ray movies [/quote] Why don't people realize BluRay is also used for gaming, thanks to it's capacity. Get some facts straight, before you start talking rubbish. Oh and; [quote="MagicOneUp"]i'm playing Star Ocean for a second time now, oh, it'll be release on the ps3... next... year.. [/quote] Only shows that 360's exclusives are timed. Conviction will probably end up coming out on PS3 as well, just like how Splinter Cell: Double Agent did.

shinchy
shinchy

"xbox360 hdd is puny even at 250gb, mine was filled with less than 8 games..." - Hmmm... can someone smell bullsh*t.

mark_unix
mark_unix

it's not big enough and never will be, unless users are allowed to upgrade it themselves just like on the PS3 (where u could upgrade to whatever u want, always cheaper than on the xbox360 without voiding warranty.)

mark_unix
mark_unix

my 120GB drives was full within 4hours...

mark_unix
mark_unix

@MagicOneUp the xbox360 hdd is puny even at 250gb, mine was filled with less than 8 games... and it isn't memory it's a HDD, which is not user upgradeable with a non-Microsoft part (without voiding warrenty) for the price of 1 xbox360's 120GB drive i can buy 3x250GB laptop drives for the PS3, also go back-up save-games to an external hdd on the xbox360 (something which can easily be done on the PS3).. 50GB blu-ray storage for games is important, unless u like discs-swaps which is going to happen ALLOT, and yes i also own an xbox360 because i am not such a poor bastard as others here. all the things i can do standard and free on the PS3, cost money on the xbox360 and that's ridicules.

MagicOneUp
MagicOneUp

@mark_unix why paid for things you don't need? the 360 hdd is a huge memory card and plus if you want, you can install the 'whole' game on it. bet you cant with the ps3. plus its not mandatory to pre install like mgs4.... blu ray is standard i heard and dosnt cost a dime? why is the ps3 is the most expensive console on earth? wifi built in? same story.... i connect my 360 to my laptop which dosnt cost me a cent. i dont want/need blu ray movies, i say its the same as dvds when you sit 8 meters away to enjoy a movie from the tv. @Flint247 you dont go for any team, you dosnt have a fave game, you listen to all kinds of rubbish.... when you go to a basketball match, you dosnt cheer for any team, you dosnt belongs to anything. you have no intrest, no hobby and probably dosnt have a fav net girl....

MagicOneUp
MagicOneUp

@ AlfaxD_Centauro Natal is the future, the 'wand' thing is the past. i can see sony made a last minute attachment attempt like their 'sixaxis' with their wand. more exclusives for ps3? i pre ordered forza3, GT5 for you? is that game has a released date yet, i mean its be announced back in 2006! Allen Wake just has more action than Heavy Rain.... i'm playing Star Ocean for a second time now, oh, it'll be release on the ps3... next... year... i clocked Gears2 about 4 time now.... playing Halo odst and cant wait for Reach....

MagicOneUp
MagicOneUp

@TevoxZi ok dude, how can you explain why most 360 ports to the ps3 are running at lower resolution, slower frame rates ect... when IF the ps3 is much powerful in term of hardware structures? shouldn't it be done with ease? blu ray has more capability, arent most of the data are compressed? i mean by your explanations, games on the ps3 should be 3 times longer, audio should be all dts 7.1? so far i have not seen on the ps3, maybe sony is keeping it for its 'future proof' console.... by that time i will be playing 720.

Flint247
Flint247

*sigh* I am probably one of the few people that actually enjoys PS3, Wii, and 360, instead of being a "one-system Fanboy".

phinch1
phinch1

Joshua250 Posted Oct 10, 2009 6:55 pm GMT I completely agree that the pricing is broken on the Xbox. But you're focusing on the wrong issue; anyone can easily see that the peripherals are overpriced. Even though Microsoft sells rather inexpensive parts for royalty rates, the Xbox still sells far more than the Playstation. It has to do with better business and better software. I'm you really havent checked sales lately have you? go on vg chartz and you will find the ps3 has been outselling the 360 everywhere since the price drop and this week in software sales ps3 has outsold the 360 too, don't post bulll poo mate cause i can smell it all over you

TevoxZi
TevoxZi

@rolla020980 [quote="rolla020980"] They do not perform very well in random scenarios such as physics calculations [/quote] Then explain and why IBM Supercomputers use CBE. eDRAM only being 10MB is a bottleneck. [quote="rolla020980"]and DDR2 available for the CPU.[/quote] Says where? It uses shared 512MB of GDDR3 700MHz VRAM on both CPU & GPU. 1080p [1920x1080 -resolution in progressive] is upscaled on both PS3 and Xbox 360 no further discussion about that. Parts 2006 vs. 2005. I really don't believe in the older parts being better than the newer ones, as technology goes further and better parts cost more money to make. The biggest difference between PS3 and Xbox 360 is BluRay with it's 50GB Capacity, while DVD-DL only has 8.5GB. When that runs out, you have to start compressing games which kills A/V -quality.

rolla020980
rolla020980

OK, to resolve the CPU argument: PS3 has 1 hose with water going through 7 tubes, then back to 1 hose. XBOX 360 has 3 hoses that go into 3 tubes, then back into 6 hoses. Where would you think the bottleneck would be? Besides, Cell processors were invented for predictable programming in servers. They do not perform very well in random scenarios such as physics calculations. 3 general purpose cores with 6 hardware threads is much better at random processing. As far as the GPUs are concerned, there is no"3D-Mark-Like" application for the consoles that can give an apples to apples comparison, so I am staying out of that. As far as RAM, the PS3 has XDR, which is great at 16GB/s bandwidth (the GDDR3 for video is 22.4GB/s). However, the XBOX 360's EDRAM for video buffering is 256GB/s. Remember, XDR in the PS3 runs at 3.2GHz and the EDRAM in the 360 runs at 3.2GHz, the EDRAM has a much wider path, so more data can be sent per clock cycle. Plus, on the PS3, the XDR is connected to the CPU, which gives the CPU fast RAM speed, but it is unavailable directly to the GPU, which uses GDDR3. The 360 has the EDRAM dedicated to the video, and DDR2 available for the CPU. For those of you who think more is always better, 1080P, or 1920x1080 resolution uses slightly over 2 MB/frame. So, in order to max the XBOXs 10 MB of RAM at 256GB/s, you would have to be running at about 1,049,000 frames per second (do the math).

AlfaxD_Centauro
AlfaxD_Centauro

@MagicOneUp. Perhaps you are the most ignorant in this comments =(.

AlfaxD_Centauro
AlfaxD_Centauro

Also PS3 have more exclusives than Xbox 360 for 2009 and 2010. And more projects for Hardware and interaction. Xbox 360 only Project Natal. But yeah, is not even a surprise. Xbox 360 still failing with RROD with new chip Jasper and loosing millions $$$ with Non original Games =(.

Joshua250
Joshua250

Every news article about the Playstation everyone argues that the developers will start taking better advantage of the hardware which will inevitably lead to a sales spike. Every. News. Update. So, it's been three years. Where's the sales spike? It's not about the graphics, it's about the experience. Sure, Playstation has some pretty excellent exclusives. Judging from the videos I've seen and reviews I've read both Uncharted games easily look like the best gaming experience offered on any of the three consoles. However, those are only two games. As a whole, the Playstation suffers compared to both the 360 and the Wii. And that's why, it's in last place.

Rikuide_Furame
Rikuide_Furame

The price was the main stopping point for a lot of folk so when Sony dropped the price, many people including myself got a PS3.

darklight4
darklight4

the PS3 is the more powerful console but XBOX 360 is still good i dont know why people just quit complaining and enjoy playing them does it really matter which is better

kavadias1981
kavadias1981

The PS3 may top hardware... then again it may not. Who knows ay?

izmickey
izmickey

@MagicOneUp your comments are so dumb, im sorry. You keep on commenting with false information and keep on getting corrected by people who know what they are talking about. Give it up, and stop acting like you got a magiconeup your.....you know. @Thatguysawesome Or play it with your girlfriend. My girlfriend cant get enough of killzone 2.

Joshua250
Joshua250

I completely agree that the pricing is broken on the Xbox. But you're focusing on the wrong issue; anyone can easily see that the peripherals are overpriced. Even though Microsoft sells rather inexpensive parts for royalty rates, the Xbox still sells far more than the Playstation. It has to do with better business and better software.

zombie_killah
zombie_killah

The ps3 will never overtake the wii, but will beat the 360. Shme because the wii is a really bad system.

beardmoen
beardmoen

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Thatguysawesome
Thatguysawesome

All consoles are great ya fools! I'm on my 2nd Wii, 4th xbox360, and soon to be 2nd PS3! And i still consider myself a casual gamer.....with a problem lol! Enjoy them all for what they have, I do and I'm loving it! Either that, or you could get a girlfriend!

kamizuka
kamizuka

gamesw being cheaply ported to the Ps3? that might be in the most of multiplat games because they dont care about the consumer, great games that look the same( 5% difference you cant tell that one is better than the other) Look BETTER ON THE ps3. saying that xbox have better color is really stupid stupid, because you can change Them from the FREAKING TV!

British32
British32

I own both the PS3 and XBOX 360, I like them both as much.