Report: PS4 will top Xbox One globally, selling 51 million units by 2016

International Data Corporation report also says if Microsoft unbundles Kinect, then the Xbox One will outsell the PS4 in North America.

According to a new report from research firm International Data Corporation (IDC), the PlayStation 4 will sell 51 million units globally by 2016, outpacing Microsoft's Xbox One. A preview of the report was shared with GamesIndustry International, and it has many other interesting takeaways.

Though the PS4 will have the greatest global market share by 2016, according to the report, the Xbox One will actually be the market leader in North America if Microsoft decides to offer a version of the console without Kinect, thereby lowering the price.

"The presumed unbundling of Kinect and Xbox One, which should facilitate rough price parity between it and the PS4, should lead to a spike in Xbox One sales," the firm said. "Assuming the console and sensor are unbundled in 2015, IDC expects Xbox One to recover and emerge with the largest installed base of any console in North America by the end of 2016."

Right now, the PS4 is the top next-generation console. It has sold more than 7 million units. Meanwhile, Nintendo's Wii U has sold 6.17 million consoles globally, while the only sold-through figure Microsoft has shared to date for the Xbox One is 3 million, though the company has shipped 5 million systems overall.

The IDC report goes on to say that Nintendo's struggling Wii U will get "the equivalent of a $50 price cut worldwide in late 2014 or early 2015." However, the IDC says this price cut will not be enough to help the Wii U catch up to competing consoles.

Finally, the IDC concluded that the traditional disc-based retail sector is expected to continue to decline, which you might expect as digital purchasing becomes more and more popular. To that end, the IDC also expects that by 2019, more than 50 percent of total game spending across all consoles will come through digital channels. "Rising digital revenue is forecast to nearly offset the fall in disc-based revenue," the group said.

Eddie Makuch is a news editor at GameSpot, and you can follow him on Twitter @EddieMakuch
Got a news tip or want to contact us directly? Email news@gamespot.com

Written By

Eddie Makuch is a news editor at GameSpot, and would like to see the Whalers return to Hartford.

Discussion

1185 comments
binbin90
binbin90

my that's quite a lot in just two years, assuming that Sony can consistently keep attracting potential ps4 owners....But I'm sure they'll find a way to do it, as well as Microsoft and Nintendo

moesuir
moesuir

By 2016, Direct X12 will be fully in use on the Xbox One, and there will be lots of usage of cloud computing on the Xbox One. So this "PS4 outselling" sales prediction is pretty much a useless piece of sh..t, just like how the PS4 will become a useless piece of sh..t by 2016.

gregdavidson727
gregdavidson727

Here are the 4 things Microsoft needs to do to convince me to buy one:


1.) Drop the price to $399 or $349

2.) Create a slimmer version

3.) Come up with limited edition painted consoles

4.) Make their systems backwards compatible

Dieknochenblume
Dieknochenblume

Unbundling Kinect is the last thing M$ will do. They can go 180 all they want, but sticking to Kinect is their last trench to save their generation gamble. They invested so much on it, they can't just back down, even it means losing platform momentum. Like Nintendo, they believe they can always catch up later and build momentum at any time. 

Let's see how far they take it, and what will happen once the secure-investment vs swallow-loses balance flips out of control.

roguedev
roguedev

Ugh predictions... Look at the people making them and check out their past successes r_r

Daian
Daian

And the Titanic could have reached New York if it hadn't hit an iceberg. Same thing.

bmart970
bmart970

I will buy an Xbox One if they unbundle the Kinect. A lower price and less useless hardware would be welcomed by me, but I'm on the fence at the moment.

ziggyww
ziggyww

For me I have a PS4 as it stands I like the exclusives that it has and also I decided on that console because multiplatform games are also showing a trending of preforming better on Sony's machine.

I had both consoles last gen but as it stands at the moment for me to consider buying a X1 I will need to see the Kinect dropped, the price cheaper then that of the PS4 (I don't want to pay more for a console which I see as weaker) and as I will only buy it for the exclusives I will need to see some...and not console exclusive like Titanfall I mean proper exclusive games. Because of that last point I don't expect I will be picking up a X1 for a couple of years anyway at best until a solid library of exclusives games have been released and only if I see some worthwhile exclusives come out.

TheExxorcist
TheExxorcist

What's MS gonna do when Sony sells the PS4 at $349.99 Bundled with the Last of Us and a year of PS+ ???

metallinatus
metallinatus

Unfortunately for the Xponies, Microsoft insisted on including that expensive gimmicky Kinect controller instead of investing more on the hardware....

It's so sad.

homey_d_clown
homey_d_clown

I find predictions funny because they can easily be changed, for example:

Google will be releasing a console in the next 2-3 years and it supposedly will double ALL current specs, so if your current console runs 1080p 60fps today, their console will run at 2160 and 120 fps, etc.

If this is true then all current predictions are false.

georgepalmer89
georgepalmer89

The ps4 has a 6 speed blu-ray drive that is supposedly meant to work with the new 4k blu-ray discs that sony and the BDA (Blu-ray Disc Association)are releasing at the end of the year.so I'm guessing that the xbone will have to upgrade the console soon or be left out on the media side which apparently Microsoft marketed heavily as a "all in one media device for your home"

justerthought
justerthought

Think back at all the fools saying the console is dead and PS4 will be the last. A projection of 51 million units in two years is on a totally different level. PS3 and 360 only sold 70 million each in 7 years. That's I0 million per year or 20 million in 2 years. Going on the new prediction, the PS4 could sell 178.5 million in 7 years (25.5 million per year) because sales growth tends to speed up, not slow down. Most people delay purchase and are late arrivals. They even complained about whether the PS4 was really needed because they had only just bought the PS3 last year.

70 million in 7 years may be the fate for the XB1 if it's lucky, but I think it will even struggle to reach that target. XB1 has initially sold well in the early stage but those are the early adopting fanboys. From here on we've just got players with no allegiance to either particular platform. They will just buy the best gaming console and that's PS4. Let's face it, the XB1's unique selling point is the multimedia TV box functionality, but you can get that from many different platforms. Everything the XB1 offers can be got from elsewhere and most people already have some of those features anyway. The PS4 is different. If you want the best quality next gen cutting edge games console, you can only get that from a PS4.

People are buying PS4 not just because it is cheaper. It's a far superior next gen gaming machine and Sony have a proven track record for delivering great games to their consoles. There is no gamble getting a PS4. You know it is going to deliver the games and do it in high quality with all the eye candy. If PS4 and XB1 were close in terms of graphical power, players would be able to choose based on personal taste. But they are not even close. The PS4 is far more powerful, so there is only one correct choice if you'r a hardcore gamer and want the best cutting edge next gen gaming on the market, without resorting to an expensive PC and all the hassle that goes with it.

So I think a projection of 51 million unit sold in two years is realistic.

Shinobi120
Shinobi120

Finally, the IDC concluded that the traditional disc-based retail sector is expected to continue to decline, which you might expect as digital purchasing becomes more and more popular. To that end, the IDC also expects that by 2019, more than 50 percent of total game spending across all consoles will come through digital channels. "Rising digital revenue is forecast to nearly offset the fall in disc-based revenue," the group said.

Sorry to burst their bubbles, but many people like myself still prefers physical media for gaming on consoles. Not only that, but the internet is still not top notch in America.


And if anyone honestly thinks that Sony, Microsoft, or 3rd party publishers are ever gonna offer Steam like prices on closed gaming platforms, then they're as gullible as they come. They're gonna want the most profit that they can get off of.


If physical media ever goes away from consoles, Nintendo, Microsoft, Sony, & 3rd party publishers will start going overboard on higher prices of games along with a lot of restrictions. You'll have no choice but to abide by what either Nintendo, Microsoft, Sony, & 3rd party publishers do, due to consoles being closed platforms.

Look at the prices of Games on Demand for Xbox 360 for example: Very high prices on old titles.

With PC gaming, you're offered a lot of freedom & always granted lower prices, because it's an open platform & that you don't have to deal with  being tied down to a specific company like you do on consoles.

That's one of the reasons physical media must stay on consoles, because it's competition, & it keeps console manufactures & 3rd party publishers in check.

wallacom
wallacom

Why not both? I play Xbone for FPS. And PS4 for games like MMO/RPG. It always was like that, Xbox competitive multiplayer is stronger than PS, where PS feels more Single player oriented.


It's not always about looks, but experience.

poopoohed
poopoohed

Sorry but the only way the Brobox will outsell the Playstation is if MS spins off the brand and a competent company actually designs a better machine lol.

WhiteTulip1
WhiteTulip1

its still an underpowered device compared to the ps4

Sandpark
Sandpark

No console is going to sell 100 million anytime soon. The economy is lukewarm and there is alot more competition now. The Wii-U sales will increase alot when price drops come and the holidays. A parent don't care which is more powerful. They look at price.


If this is a ten year race for xb1 and ps4. I feel regardless of who wins, it's going to be close in the ten year span. If they drop kinect they may close the gap with price and sell more in the short term. But then after that all that matters is who has the best games, most games, and which system runs games better.


As long as a system meets the numbers of the previous systems numbers. It's a success in my eyes, no matter who is first.


PS4 offers alot more value games wise/ price wise. If this keeps up like so, ps4 is the leader. I'll buy the system that has the most rpgs and co-op rpgs.

hardrockr79
hardrockr79

"Microsoft's own Xbox director of development, Boyd Multerer, admitted that 1080p would be hard to achieve on the Xbox One due to the way the system utilizes its limited 32mb of eSRAM. The inclusion of DirectX 12 tools and “the power of the cloud” won't make 1080p anymore possible than it currently is, but there is a deep and desperate hope in the fanboy community of the black and green brand that perhaps... just maybe the “Banana Surprise” will finally help bring the system up to par with outputting 1080p games like the PS4."

There's your guy:)

hardrockr79
hardrockr79

Yay for you. Only a year and a half until X1 catches up......in theory.

Blazen702
Blazen702

Cross platform games look better on X1.

Idontremember
Idontremember

@homey_d_clown  Double?  1080p x4 = 2160p and 30fpsX2=120fps, so that's 8 times more pixels per second.

That would NOT rival current console in price.

Still, where did you hear about a google console? If you mean one of those mini Android console, then it's just you making stuff up.

justerthought
justerthought

@Shinobi120

I agree. The idea of totally digital media is a myth. Like you, I prefer to have the physical disc. Even with music in the world of mp3, I still buy the actual CD for full quality and make my own mp3's off that for use on my PS3.

justerthought
justerthought

@wallacom

Here's why not. Most people cannot afford both consoles. They have to buy the best for their needs. The real question is why XB1 for FPS. PS4 will do FPS and do it better. The only reason the 360 got the FPS crown was because MS bribed COD and had the smoothest joysticks on the controller. All that has changed with PS4.

You say it is not all about looks and stress the merits of the gaming experience. I say why choose to have one or the other. Buy a PS4 and have both. No need for an XB1 unless you want kinect controlled multimedia. Most gamers don't.

Tiwill44
Tiwill44

@wallacom Because why get both when you can get a powerful gaming PC instead?

I don't mean to sound like an "elitist" or whatever, but you could play pretty much all the games you want on Steam. Of course, you'd still need a Wii U and a 3DS for all the Nintendo exclusives, but other than that, Steam covers mostly everything. And the free online is always cool.

repetitious
repetitious

@poopoohed  funny how the whole spin off idea hasn't come around until that bill gates article, that keeps being reworded to conveniently assist your stupid claims.

glad you can think for yourself. 

jeremiah06
jeremiah06

@Sandpark  I highly doubt it will be a 10 year race... Ps3 and 360 launched above pc specs... ps4 and xbone did not... They're already dated if you own a $1000 machine and they'll be eclipsed by $400-500 machines in the next 1-2 years...

justerthought
justerthought

@Sandpark

Open your eyes. The economy is luke warm, but PS4 sales are red hot. Why is that. Go do some research before spouting have baked theories.

eternal_napalm
eternal_napalm

@Sandpark  In case you haven't heard, as GameSpot is the only gaming site not to mention it as they bow down and worship Phil Spencer's Twitter, you gotta go read up on Project Beast. If you like to praise the sun. Because there is a (likely intentional) leak of a new PS4 Exclusive Souls game/ rpg IP with heavy Souls elements. 

repetitious
repetitious

@Sandpark  when u say value games wise, i guess you mean free games...too me its not exactly a value. because its usually a game ive already bought, i dont wait around and hope its on ps+. if i want it, i buy it when released...my opinion of course.

i respect yours as well.

Blazen702
Blazen702

And bf4 and tomb raider both looked better on the X1.

Warlord_Irochi
Warlord_Irochi

@Tiwill44 "Because why get both when you can get a powerful gaming PC instead?"
Because by having the three of them you don't miss a single exclusive tittle
. As simple as that.

ziggyww
ziggyww

@Warlord_Irochi @WhiteTulip1 True but this isn't the same generation of the PS1 and PS2. Both consoles today are pretty much the same in how they are designed apart from one is currently playing multiplatform games at a better quality for less money but using more powerful components! Why would I want to buy a console which is currently playing all multiplatform games at a lower quality but cost me more!

I say the power of the machine this generation has a lot to do with it.

grenadehh
grenadehh

@repetitious @Sandpark  Then clearly you are neither the target audience for PS+ nor PS in general as it seems most of the PS fanbase refuses to pay for games. Also, drop the fallacious indie crusade nonsense. Everyone knows MS has been more than accommodating for indies and Xbox is second only to PC when it comes to the availability of and support for indie games.

Sandpark
Sandpark

@repetitious @Sandpark  By value I mean free, discounts, larger library due to how ps4 is integrating their handheld and previous generation games onto ps4. As well as their openess with indies. And the option of morpheus at a later time.


While xbox one has a better apps for most part but all hidden behind a paywall. They get criticized on the games they discount. They put clauses in the indie program. I do not know if it is still true but they wouldn't even let you play mmos without gold.


Value for the buck. Right now that is playstation. Analysts can come up with excuses or what ifs till they'blue in the face. Gamers go where the value is. Units sold don't lie. If xb1 changes perception maybe things will change. But right now doesn't look good.

metallinatus
metallinatus

@jeremiah06 @Warlord_Irochi@Tiwill44  Also, Super Mario 3D World, Super Mario Galaxy and Super Mario Galaxy 2 were all rated higher than The Last of Us.... and Galaxy 2 was rated higher than MGS4 (quick searches here at Gamespot shows that), so, yeah, Nintendo is still King of the Hill when it comes at exclusives.... and I guess you can now call that a "fact".

metallinatus
metallinatus

@Warlord_Irochi @Tiwill44 If you are rich enough to get all the four of them to don't miss a single title, so go ahead.... if you're not, stay with Steam and Nintendo.

jeremiah06
jeremiah06

@grenadehh  Not really they just force you do go xbox first or not at all... The only way to launch on Sony is to go exclusive... 

opticstrike
opticstrike

@grenadehh  Ps4 suppoert Indie Third-part developers a lot more then Microsoft, since Third-party developers can add games to the PsN as much as they want, wherever they want, and when they want, by themselves, and doesn't need a green light to do so. and they can charge it if they want to. and Ps4 will have a bigger libary in the end of this year.

Sandpark
Sandpark

@grenadehh  I am willing to pay for games, and subscriptions if the value is right. I like the option to pick and choose what I want. We are the consumer and our wallets dictate what happens. Hence the 180 on drm,etc.


I am neither target audience. I go where the games I like are which are rpgs and co-op rpgs. Neither next gen console has many games to warrant my purchase yet.


So do not presume I am pro Sony. I could care less who wins this war. We win as long as the competition exist. The wallets have spoken so far and so far it is Sony's world. All this political spin means nothing. The numbers will tell the story at the end of this cycle.