NBA lockout could cost Take-Two $40 million - Analyst

Sterne Agee analyst Arvind Bhatia says if ongoing labor dispute continues, softer sales of NBA 2K12 could result, costing publisher millions.

EA Sports planned to ship Madden NFL 12 regardless of whether or not the NFL and its Players Association reached a deal to end its months-long lockout. Luckily for EA, such a deal was inked, and the season will play out as usual. However, the upcoming 2011-2012 NBA season is also stuck in a lockout, and one analyst believes if a solution is not reached, Take-Two stands to lose as much as $40 million.

Not even Magic can save 2K12, says Bhatia.

Sterne Agee analyst Arvind Bhatia issued an investor note this morning that stated if the NBA lockout does not end, sales of NBA 2K12 will be softer than predicted.

Just yesterday, Take-Two reported its latest quarterly earnings, saying NBA 2K11 has sold 5.5 million copies. However, Bhatia's firm is currently projecting that sales of NBA 2K12 could fall off by 1 million units over last year. Sales at this level would diminish Take-Two's earnings by $40 million, he projected.

However, Bhatia also stated that the "uniqueness" of NBA 2K12 might be enough to make the game a top-performer, regardless of a lockout scenario.

"We are conservatively modeling 4.5M units for the title in FY12," he said. "The company’s viewpoint, however, is that the uniqueness of its upcoming NBA title could conceivably protect it from historically negative trends during a lockout."

The "uniqueness" of NBA 2K12 is likely related to the game's NBA's Greatest component. This mode has gamers playing as 15 of the greatest NBA teams in history and re-creating some of the sport's greatest matches.

For more on the upcoming hardwood sim, check out GameSpot's latest hands-on preview with NBA 2K12.

Written By

Eddie Makuch is a news editor at GameSpot, and would like to see the Whalers return to Hartford.

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Discussion

33 comments
XxSUPERSNAKExX
XxSUPERSNAKExX

EA bought NFL license so no one else makes NFL games, but 2Ksports made EA to stop making NBA games by just making the best NBA game yet!

Yunggdre
Yunggdre

man looks like 360 got updated create a player hope ps3 did too cuz im sick of them lame tattoos and bad hair and blonde looks like broly from dbz ...lol

Munstable
Munstable

I think the lockout may actually help sales. It will make a good substitution and pain reliever for NBA fans who miss the games.

THE_DZA
THE_DZA

Good point Taino1128, that's why I hate people btchin about how much players make. Those guys make a ton of money for a lot of people with their skills.

AuronAXE
AuronAXE

I think the game will be a success. If you love Basketball and Video-Games, it's obvious you'll want to get NBA 2K12, regardless of a lockout of the real NBA or roster changes.

taino1128
taino1128

Proof that lockouts in sports don't just affect owners and players. They affect the thousands of other people who have jobs related to the sport. Part-time workers in the sporting arenas, TV channels, and now even video game developers will all be losing a lot of money.

Baby0Shaq34
Baby0Shaq34

@Uberfinn fifa and nba 2k is as bad as each other yeah fifa got all that but fifa 11 had the defense as brick walls and when they came out of their positions they were like rockets. same with nba 2k on defense there a automatic cut off thats not real at all when your beat your beat. I can go on but these are the top issues in both game that I want to get resolved.

jonzilla_basic
jonzilla_basic

Personally I don't think there will be an issue with sales at all. NBA2k11 did so well that allot of people are ready for the next game! I am a huge NBA fan and if there is no season I will still get the game!

FallenOneX
FallenOneX

I like how the article doesn't even acknowledge that EA also makes NBA games. Or were they planning on sitting out this year as well? It is hard to make money on sports games when you actually have competition........

sahyland
sahyland

nba2k11 was so damn good that take two could easily sell glorified roster updates every year similar to madden. difference being madden blows and still gets away with the roster updates.

monson21502
monson21502

basketball is fun to play. but not fun to watch.... i know because unlike these analyst.. i played real basketball and video game basketball. and both >>>>>>>>>>>>> watching basketball live or on tv imo..... people wont stop playing it just because it wont be on tv and thats a fact....

Uberfinn
Uberfinn

I can promise you that sales won't be greater than 2k11. I'd be extremely surprised. The reason? Everyone knows sports games don't get revolutionary every year. This is the maintenance year for the 2k basketball game since 2k11 brought new features. There is little change between 2k11 and 2k12. They just added more players, but the core gameplay hardly changes in these games, which is why people still complain year to year.

Uberfinn
Uberfinn

@nyran125 Wow, fanboy much? Let's think about 2k11 for a second. Snapping into and out of animations, clipping issues with the ball going through defenders limbs, YOUR player going through the body of the defender, massive paint contact without fouls. 2k11 is a good game but FIFA is so much farther ahead you are kidding yourself. Fifa 11 has 360 degree dribbling, very minor clipping compared to 2k11, great commentary, better graphics without jaggy edges. Fifa 12 has real physics. 2k11 doesn't even have fake physics. You can travel and double dribble because animations don't work right. You clearly haven't played either game enough to know what you're talking about.

TerrorRizzing
TerrorRizzing

how? wouldnt basketball fans be wanting to get a basketball fix somewhere?

Blaiyan
Blaiyan

I honestly don't want to play as the greatest teams. If I can't get the current NBA then what I'd rather have is the Best or Greatest players in their prime on the teams they were most famous for being on. For my Knicks give me Monroe, Frasier, Houston, sprewell, starks and Ewing, etc. For the rest of the league guys like Olajuwon, Reggie Miller, Anfernee, Shaq (magic & lakers versions), Barkley and so on. You can see where i'm going with this. I mainly set-up my roster that way. Mix in past superstars with the current roster.

nyran125
nyran125

NBA 2K11 owns anything EA has ever brought out in a sports game. By a long LONG way. FIFA doesnt even match the absolute class of NBA2K. When i play it i really feel like im watching a real game. When i play FIFA i still know and feel its just a game still. Its not trying to be the real thing, only semi real, FIFA is just trying to give us USER friendly options that increase every year. Soon you wont even need to push a button in FIFA, it might just do it all for you if you just move the directional stick.

TWO1FIVE
TWO1FIVE

I'm gonna buy this because of the lockout I wont be able to watch real hoops for probably a whole season, I need a hoops fix.

grimmjow88
grimmjow88

despite madlen10 comment receiving a lot of hate I think he is on to something... wouldn't it be cool to have a bball game with all international leagues including the NBA... and also then be able to select countries as well, basically like the fifa of bball... definitely would play that!

grafficsak
grafficsak

[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]

godzillavskong
godzillavskong

Yeah, EA was involved in the CBA, working on getting a agreement between the NFL, and the players, so as not to cost them a penny! lol, jk. I'm not even going to pay any attention to the NBA lockout. If it happens it happens. Hopefully 2K won't suffer. I prefer college basketball anyways. How about putting more R & D into that for the time being?

madlen10
madlen10

How about a Euroleague game? I think European basketball also deserves a game

towely62
towely62

bugs bugs bugs .but u put a nba league on the cover of a game and it sells

BoltNinety
BoltNinety

[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]

bahamut_au
bahamut_au

It's ok...2K can make it up by making its developers leave more content out of games at launch and selling it back to the consumer as paid DLC.

MadGamer132
MadGamer132

i got a feeling it will give EA time for a "sim" game even with a Jam game, anybody want to play that?

bballabarry
bballabarry

even if the lock out ended before the game released, which prolly won't happen, I still won't be buying this game. 2k11 is doing just fine right now with me

thaflu
thaflu

With the lockout occuring, maybe it will give Visual Concepts time to make an NBA game thats actually good.

TheEnigma20
TheEnigma20

anyone who's a fan of basketball and a big fan of the 2K series knows that during the lock out they will definitely buy the game earlier and play it more, since there's no basketball on TV, i have to agree, i think sales will actually go up, especially if its anywhere near as good as 2K11

Triton
Triton

The economy is doing so great lets give all the sports folks big fat raises to play games. so then we can play them on our tvs...

pokecharm
pokecharm

not sure what to think about the lockout - based on what I've read, it seems like there is a 'rich' vs 'poor' group, but the trouble is both groups contain both players and owners...I fear the NBA will be in a worse state than the NFL at the 4-month point.

KaBo0m
KaBo0m

What kind of idiotic logic is that? People become more interested with the NBA because of what they see on TV. They want to mimic what they watch. If there's no NBA then the interest level will be drastically lower.

monson21502
monson21502

lockout will make the sales better.... how do u get a job to be a anayst? i think i proved my self worthy of a job for all the times i was right about stuff...