Modern Warfare 3 to double Battlefield 3 holiday sales - Analyst

Wedbush's Michael Pachter predicts Call of Duty juggernaut will easily overcome EA shooter's two-week head start, selling 16 million copies by the end of 2011.

Electronic Arts has made a point of targeting Activision's Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 with its own heavily marketed Battlefield 3, but the DICE-developed military first-person shooter is expected to be vastly overshadowed in terms of sales. In a Forbes article today, Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter predicted that EA's effort would move millions but still be outsold 2:1 by Activision's blockbuster shooter series.

Pachter predicts Modern Warfare will easily retain the sales crown this year.

Pachter projects that Battlefield 3 will sell 8 million copies this year, while Modern Warfare 3 will move 16 million copies this holiday season. Battlefield 3 launches tomorrow, while Modern Warfare 3 will follow in two weeks, with a November 8 release date. Pachter estimates the two games will combine to generate $1.4 billion in sales for the holidays and represent about 15 percent of retail game sales for the quarter.

In addition to coming out of the gate quicker, Modern Warfare 3 is expected to have longer legs at retail, according to Pachter. The analyst pegged potential 2012 sales for Battlefield 3 at 2 million copies, while he could see Modern Warfare 3 adding 8 million copies to its sales total next year.

Although the analyst has sales of EA's effort being more than doubled, the publisher may still consider that a victory. In August, EA COO Peter Moore said the goal with Battlefield 3 was not to outsell Modern Warfare 3 but to eat into Call of Duty's market share.

"If you look at last year, you might argue that Call of Duty took maybe 90 percent of the market share," Moore told GameSpot. "We think we can knock that down to 70 percent this year. We don't have to outsell Call of Duty to have a very successful year. This is a long-term strategy to be a major player, if not ultimately a dominant player in this industry. But it starts this year."

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Discussion

499 comments
timoteo2k1
timoteo2k1

MW3 is a glorified arcade game, quality not quantity. i get a kick out of watching MW3 players attempt to play BF3, they run down the middle of the street... and die. Then figure they'll mix it up by running down the street... and dying. followed by throwing the controller and proclaiming that the game sucks... because they do.

giancarlod
giancarlod

These reports were conducted by an AnAl yst..... funny! BF3 is so much better and MW3 will not overcome sales for holidays! Besides all BF3 bugs are fixed now and for FREE! Burn MW3! Burn!

prince__vlad
prince__vlad

battlefield 3 it's a disapointment. They will lose agains MW3

smoke1125
smoke1125

mw is just more fun to play bf is not the game it use to be i still prefer to play bf2 modern combat over any of the bad company

GilberTron1
GilberTron1

If mw3 was out i wouldnt be bashing a BF3 article, i'd be playin my game. I like that MW has competition but to turn and hate on it is ridiculous. People just pissed that they paid 40 quid to get OWNED! But u know your gonna buy it anyway, and it makes you ANGRY!!!

pszone
pszone

Well MW3 not better than Battlefeild 3 so Activevision eip pp off and if you buy MW3 you dont see Activevison rip you off .

rohn13
rohn13

While MW3 will probably outsell BF3, that doesn't mean it is a better game. That which is the best selling and that which is the best quality are almost never the same regardless of whether you are talking about games or anything else for that matter. Hell in my opinion the Battlefield series and the Call of Duty series are so drastically different types of games they really shouldn't even be considered in the same genre. BTW this guy is a complete idiot saying BF3 will only sell 8 million copies this year when it shipped 10 million copies for the release. I know shipped isn't the same thing as sold but there is no way retailers would have bought that many copies if at least 75% of them had been spoken for with preorders, nobody keeps but a few copies of any given game on hand anymore. I know my gamestop had over 1000 preorders for BF3 and the next closest gamestop to it is only about 500 feet away. They had slightly fewer preoders for MW3 but with it coming out 2 weeks later they will likely have a few more preorders for MW3, but not that many.

Dullgarian
Dullgarian

In some ways, I hate to say it but I think MW3 will sell more copies than BF3... I really wished to see BF3 crushing the MW franchise because I'm so bored to see developers making cash by recycling their same old game assets made like 5 years ago that I've already paid 2 times ... BUT, the truth is that MW3 still looks more fun than BF3. Campaign AND multiplayer mode looks top notch! I like them both. BF3 is awesome graphically, but in terms of gameplay mechanics, MW3 appeals me much better. I'm gonna wait and see for the reviews...

Kooken58
Kooken58

@Uesugi-dono I think the point im trying to get at is...It was a mistake for DICE to try and make a campaign and stuff...Since this is a Battlefield sequal and all and previous battlefield games did not have campaigns (I dont count bad company, they werent exactly battlefield sequels, just spin off games, still good games though) They could of used that time to make an even better MP. But really who buys games like COD and Battlefield now days for Singleplayer alone? If you want a great story and long lasting singleplayer....Go play Elder scrolls, or bioshock, or half life. These games have always been about their MP...so its pretty stupid how ppl are bashing games like BF3 just cuz it has some mediocre campaign.

LtReviews
LtReviews

Battlefield has been out for 5 days in America, but only 2 days in Europe. 2 days is hardly "about a week", it isn't even half a week Also, most buyers do not differentiate between Black Ops and Modern Warfare. Nor do they differentiate between who made it. If CoD 3 was being made by Nintendo, sales wouldn't be affected. So to say that Black Ops is only a fraction of what MW3 sales can achieve is just wrong, they are the same thing. You also need to look at the guitar-hero effect. They are selling to a casual audience. Alot of people who have CoD simply own only CoD and Halo, and seldom play often. It is going to become especially hard to re-sell with a blue-ocean strategy now that we are several years into the franchise's success. Nintendo is having similar problems. Battlefield 3 isn't a lame-duck, and I predict European sales will prove analysts wrong within a week or two. There is also the issue of the overlap buyers. People who buy both games. Chances are, after playing both, they will be playing Battlefield 3 more. The battle will soon be how many players are playing which game at any given time- which has the bigger player community. Review scores can't tell us that.

gameking5000
gameking5000

@blueguykisame So Battlefield 3 has been out for about a week, let's say. It's shipped 10 million so it probably sold like 6-7 million, let's say. Well in one day, in the US and UK, Black Ops SOLD not shipped 5.6 million copies. And that was Black Ops. This is Modern Warfare and it's going to sell hard.

Chavis02
Chavis02

@antoss: Dude I never got bored of BF3 and you know what you should buy the BF3 Game because, It's f@*king legit than MW3 and I mean no joke it's true. I don't know what you are talking about BF Players getting bored of BF3. I'm having a great time! Woooooooooooo!

antoss
antoss

Always funny to read comments on MW3 vids/articles, shouldnt all you haters be playing BF3 instead of trolling about a game you probably will end up getting anyway?. BF players man...look at them so s#&% bored and frustrated with the game already. See all you wanna be cool COD haters on the 8th aye?

ACESandElGHTS
ACESandElGHTS

[sarcasm]In related news, Michael Pachter, superduper video game analyst, successfully predicts that grass will continue to be green and the sky will stay blue.[/sarcasm] Oh, and anyone who thought BF3 was even meant to be a MW3 killer has apparently not paid attention to video game sales in the past four years.

Uesugi-dono
Uesugi-dono

@Kooken58 - Dont misunderstand me; I like the game. I'm enjoying playing it and I call it a 7.5, but there's a noticeable degrade to consoles, the campaign pales in comparison to Bad Company 2, and the small frustrations getting into a squad with your friends while also being able to communicate mean that BF3 is NOT the MW killer many people had hoped for. I think this game is the victim of a rush to market; to beat Infinity Ward to release. A step forward from BC2? No, I don't think so. BC2 had a great co-op mode for FOUR players and an enjoyable campaign. In MP they're much closer; hence the reason that BF3 IS enjoyable, but we were promised one thing and delivered another in terms of visuals. I love DICE; they won me over with Mirrors Edge, but I place this problem in the laps of EA. To do what they intended to do they just needed more time.

blueguykisame
blueguykisame

didn't BF3 already sell 10m units? lol, that throws this report off by a landslide.

Kooken58
Kooken58

@Uesugi-dono I really dont see why ppl think BF3 isnt that great...Is it cuz of the singleplayer??? FYI this is the first Battlefield sequel to come with a campaign...Battlefield series has always been about MP...Dice should of never made a singleplayer campaign imo. Is it the bugs that bother you? Personally i have seen very few or next to none...Keep in mind this is a brand new engine, nothings bound to be perfect....The game is great, and i personally think it is a step foward from BC2, not a huge step but its still a great MP game. Keeping the original BF formula.

Kooken58
Kooken58

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

nemesis9632
nemesis9632

I have enjoyed both series' games alot, I know that I will like playing these two instalments as well. CODMW3 will be an fast ride full of excitment in the single player, conversly I like the experiance that the BF games have to offer in multiplayer more. mostly for the maps, vehicles, destructable environments, etc.... i will be picking both of these up because it is too hard to choose and when you have two games like these how can you choose? I mean come on, from a point of view from someone who loves gaming, I know both of these will get alot of play. Just my opinion.

Gusz2
Gusz2

Modern warfare 2 is the best selling game (FPS) of all time in the PS3, imagine the MW3?!...

decima1870
decima1870

Bread you dumb idiot shipped does not mean sold!

slicedbread117
slicedbread117

Lol BF3 has already sold 10 million. Nice try though Pachter

TheGrizz28
TheGrizz28

@olleost MW3 isnt even out yet so you cant really determine that yet...

Chavis02
Chavis02

@FROSTYxxPENGUIN: BF3 Fans doesn't get serious about it. It's MW3 fans are getting really serious about it because, our facts are true. :)

Uesugi-dono
Uesugi-dono

@Joester4Life Posted Oct 25, 2011 10:06 pm CT Obviously MW3 will outsell BF3. There is more kids online than adults. -- This man right here just NAILED it.

Uesugi-dono
Uesugi-dono

And that's really kinda sad. Battlefield 3 COULD have been so much more, but in their rush to market they stumbled.

gameking5000
gameking5000

@LycanBane People also love complete game packages. Meaning that the game is solid all round - no fail campaigns.

LAboy06
LAboy06

Well, I got BF3 and it is pretty beast! I will probably play BF3 alot and maybe get Skyrim. I might get MW3 when it is cheap really!

FROSTYxxPENGUIN
FROSTYxxPENGUIN

Y'all so serious. I love battlefield but if there's one game coming out that will reserve all my free time its Skyrim. I love me my dragons.

Chavis02
Chavis02

[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]

Chavis02
Chavis02

[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]

Chavis02
Chavis02

[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]

Shantmaster_K
Shantmaster_K

Ya I expected this. CoD will always beat out BF. BF is a good series, but in my opinion CoD is better so that's another reason why sales will always be higher

POTOCZAK
POTOCZAK

never got into bf but I think MW3 has more of a mass appeal so its no surprise that cod will out sell it. Either way I am looking forward to mw3.

unreal_master
unreal_master

@gameking5000 Maybe console wise but bf3 is a pc game where as Cod is a console game if you look at those scores on meta. bf3 has a 92 and cod has a 86 overall. I am sure all the reviews for bf3 arent out or tallied yet too. Nice try though Mw2 was one of the stupidest sequels plus world at war was out before it,so mw2 looked like gold compared to that game.

Chavis02
Chavis02

Whoever thinks MW3 is better than BF3..are bronies. :3

djforlife84
djforlife84

I love BF3 on my PS3. not even going to bother with MW3. to each his/her own I guess.

boogernator
boogernator

I went to my local best buy on launch date and they said all the PC version of the game was sold out due to pre-orders. First time seeing this happen.

RyoGTO
RyoGTO

PC gamers will choose BF3--while solely console gamers will generally choose MW. Not a surprise!

olleost
olleost

As a PC-gamer, and by what i have seen so far, BF3 takes the throne. And i really love the COD-MW games.

LycanBane
LycanBane

its obvious MW3 wins this, people love the fast paced quick death-quick respawn brainless qualities that is COD. Not to mention how the game does everything for you, all you have to do is pull the trigger.

steelmouth
steelmouth

no surprises here,we didn't need an analyst for this one

gameking5000
gameking5000

@unreal_master Modern Warfare 2 scores are higher than BF3's

unreal_master
unreal_master

Really people think mw2 story was great or amazing? Are you serious? The only good story for cod was mw1. I don't understand how anyone could care about that boring side track of an excuse to finish the real story in mw3. Sorry but Bf3 story is better than cod stories. If you want to compare bf3 to a story than mw1 would be the contender.

TigerRifle1
TigerRifle1

Sad how being a "dominant player" means becoming CoD. This is EA afterall look at what they did to Madden. Look for Battlefield: Bad Company 3 next year, Battlefield: Covert Ops after that, Battlefield: Hey didn't we make this already" after that.

blasterchief
blasterchief

Urgh. Just realised that EA statement's true meaning . . . 'This is a long-term strategy to be a major player' = 'This is just the beginning of what is to become a yearly milking exactly like our competitor'

bibonzo
bibonzo

Pachter is the same guy that went on record on gt and said he predicted the sales only once accurately in his whole life. Actually I would like to see anything this guy predicted that turned out right. I dont really get why is this guy is even given any media room in gaming market. Might as well pay me to make stuff up and "predict" sh!t.

Chavis02
Chavis02

@Kennedy3x: This guy has a name but, we can play that game and I didn't mistake anything on my list. So don't be so jealous because, it's true that BF3 has alot more stuff than MW3. :P MW3 Single Player Story is a good story but, not really interesting to me... BF3 Single Player Story has a great story and badass scenes! :D By the way...MW3 Coop is not entertaining just saying. :) Deal With It MW3 Fan! ;)