Modern Warfare 3 ignites November retail growth - Analyst

Wedbush's Michael Pachter projects 3 percent software sales climb in US last month, led by Call of Duty; Saints Row hurt by crowd.

The US retail industry has strung together back-to-back months of non-PC software sales growth, having posted 3 percent climbs in both September and October. And according to Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter, November non-PC software sales make three's a charm.

Modern Warfare 3 earned $775 million during its first five days of availability.

As part of his monthly NPD preview today, Pachter projected November software sales of $1.45 billion, up 3 percent compared to the same period in 2010. Unsurprisingly, the primary catalyst for this growth was Activision Blizzard's first-person shooter juggernaut Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3, which Pachter believes sold 9 million units during the month.

Modern Warfare 3's projected sales represent a 10 percent increase over last year's Black Ops, Pachter said. He also said that a strong release lineup in general helped the game industry beat last November, when Microsoft launched the Kinect for the Xbox 360. That competition, he said, drove publishers to increase their marketing spend, which also resulted in bigger sales figures.

Not everyone benefited from the competition, however. Of THQ, Pachter projected Saints Row: The Third sales of 800,000 units, a figure he believes was hurt by the crowded slate. Pachter also said that THQ's uDraw saw lethargic demand on the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3, while WWE '12 sales slipped year-over-year due to franchise fatigue.

Overexposure of a franchise is also proving to be an issue for Ubisoft's Assassin's Creed, according to Pachter. He believes Revelations sold 1 million units following its debut, which is less than last year's Brotherhood, due to franchise fatigue and lower-than-expected review scores. The game currently has an 80 Metacritic average, compared to Brotherhood's 89.

Pachter believes Need for Speed: The Run underperformed for EA, selling just 250,000 units. Meanwhile, he projected sales of Super Mario 3D Land at 700,000 units and Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword at 500,000 units. That Skyward Sword figure is likely low, considering Nintendo of America president Reggie Fils-Aime pegged Black Friday sales of the game at 535,000 units.

Turning to hardware, Pachter believes Xbox 360 sales topped the charts with 1.45 million units sold during the month, up 5 percent year-over-year. PlayStation 3 sales climbed significantly during the period, he believes, jumping 41 percent to 750,000. He also projected that Wii sales fell 17 percent to 1.05 million and 760,000 3DS units were sold.

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64 comments
dirtyvu
dirtyvu

Wii still outselling PS3. sad.

Infinity_Gauntl
Infinity_Gauntl

@LtLinkx360 You know that Activision left Atari b/c they were treated badly and so they created their own company. Activision isn't treating anyone poorly. They are giving the COD fans exactly what they want and if they weren't then they wouldn't have such huge sales. I think you are just on a COD hate bandwagon. I also think you are totally wrong that COD doesn't change things within their game.

LtLinkx360
LtLinkx360

Hey Nate_ Im a fan of MW3 and BF3 but i dont buy MW3 because is the same f*c sh*t of two last MW. I buy the next MW if only if have real new stuf. You like MW3 i understand that because i like tow, but Activision dont do beber because he have stupi* guys wo buy the same f*c game years after years. Activision dont respect the gamers like you, he just think $$$$. I never giver her my money if dont real change the game.

Nate_
Nate_

BF fans, shut up lol honestly I have a copy of Bf3 but I prefer Mw3 but I'm not hating on BF3 I just hate the fans, they're too immature in terms of judging Mw3 look I don't care if the graphics engine for mw3 is still the same, sure bf3 is better in graphics, but just seriously shut the f*** up and play your damn game, don't bother the CoD fans, you're the noobs who start these bf3 and mw3 wars. But for the record Mw3 sells better than bf3 so you bf fan boys can't top that.

ThyDavideth
ThyDavideth

A lot of idiots lacking in taste for anything great are missing out on Saint's Row The Third, THE GAME OF THE YEAR!!!!!!

MW2ismygame
MW2ismygame

@4514N_DUD3 both fan bases need to stop this stupid war because it makes BF(i am a bf fan more than cod now and no im not hating) and COD fans look like morons as well as the gaming community as a whole. its both not just one on BF articles there are COD fans trolling and vise versa.

MW2ismygame
MW2ismygame

i hate this man with a passion, yet want to be like him because hey getting grossly overpaid to make the most obvious predictions and failing at them at the same time but still getting paid sounds like lightwork not to mention easy, seriously the guy is a retard

Action
Action

I really love this guy. >Assassin's Creed is suffering from "franchise fatigue" coming out once a year. >Not Call of Duty though. wat??

4514N_DUD3
4514N_DUD3

God wtf is up with all the trolling? I'm pretty sure they all knew what they signed up for when they bought the game. U guys kept saying its retarded n everything but I've seen all you people get it any way! Especially BF fans, u guys say ur more grown up and mature, well then STFU n just play ur dam game. If u really don't like CoD that much then you shouldn't really even bother post any comments about it at all. That tells me ur all pretty immature, plus wtf is up with u guys calling ur selves "real gamers?" that just tell me ur a virgin that's always in ur moms basement. Seriously, even when I'm playing CoD there would be BF fans trolling in there too. Seriously u guys can just say wut ever shlt u want, but the thing is... We don't give a FK! Get out of ur moms basement, and get a life. Sry for the long comment, but I just have to make a point. I'm not hating on BF I luv BF I try to play that every spare time I can find. I just hate BF fans and those annoying lil trolls always crowding up comments space with their spam.

inaka_rob
inaka_rob

@vanton619 the problem is it puts companies out out of business!!! or makes them comprimise. Look at the dev team that made homefront. It was a $$$$ good mp game! But it was competing with COD and HALO and BF. they didnt have the money to advertise like the other guys. and they dont put cash in the pockets in website like IGN and gamespot so they tottaly %%%% on them and gave them bad reviews. I dont care what gamespot says. Homefront was a good game. And look at Raven Soft. They have been making hardcore games for nearly 20 years. They have made a name for themselves making GREAT single player focused 3rd and 1st person games. Well all the money and causal gamers are only buying mp games... so what was Ravens last project they worked on? MW3... its sad. to see a company that stood by their awesome single player adventures to have to work on a %%%% fest like MW3 just to get enough cash to stay in business.

Unfallen_Satan
Unfallen_Satan

The overall increase of non-PC software sales is heartening news. It's a sign that consumer spending and likely general economic health is improving, assuming the increase did not come at the expense of other expenditures. Pachter has used franchise fatigue a bit too liberally though. Although some games, sports in particular, could not easily offer new content over the span of one year and would indeed appear redundant without significant gameplay improvement, others like Assassin's Creed probably lost sales mainly due to other reasons. Competition is certainly one. Franchise not living up to expectation could be another. MW3 succeeded precisely because it delivered what its fans expected. The fact it wasn't fresh in any remarkable way became a moot point. Or maybe Pachter used franchise fatigue to refer to the loss of quality on the developer side instead of loss of interest on the players. In that case I agree more. There is a slightly subtle but critical difference in the two usages. Any number crunching and subsequent opinion must clearly differentiate the two to avoid misleading the reader, including publishers.

LJELLZ
LJELLZ

Isn't this the same dude that doomed the 3DS?

Atheosis
Atheosis

Releasing Saints Row right after MW3, BF3, and Skyrim was monumentally stupid. Typical THQ unfortunately. And I'm sure they'll blame the IP and not themselves once again. THQ is going to go out of business if they aren't careful...

vanton619
vanton619

@inaka_rob I really don't mind where the industry is generally going. There will always be a "niche" market for hardcore gamers. If the industry wants to dump more resources towards causal games and uber popular titles like CoD that don't really change but sell tons of copies, then they will keep shoving those out to make a quick buck and put more time and effort into games that are actually good and original. I would rather only buy 1 amazing game that I'd want to play over and over again then dump money on 5-6 games that are good but kind of the same thing as last years model. There are more ways to keep gamers interested in games then tacking on a MP mode and giving it a new numerical notation.

gatsbythepig
gatsbythepig

I have a friend named Larry that also makes horrible predictions and sometimes reads wikipedia for 'accurate' information. - Why doesn't GS quote Larry?

Draken_Domingo
Draken_Domingo

*facepalm* No mention of Skyrim? No mention of Battlefield? I kinda understand why Battlefield wasn't mention, but Skyrim is actually on track to beat MW3 in sales...and 'He believes'? This guy is suppose to be an analyst yet he doesn't really seem to be up to date on his own information. AND constantly mentioning franchise fatigue? Have you walked into a Gamestop recently? The place is litered with used copies of MW3...I mean, out of the 9 million sold I bet 2 million of those were taken back within the first two weeks.

KrazzyDJ
KrazzyDJ

Wanna get a Thumbs Up ??? Write a comment showing hate for Michael Pachter !!!

PixelAddict
PixelAddict

Biggest surprise to me? 1 million Wii consoles sold. Didn't expect that.

corrus
corrus

There was many good games this year

Phatjam98
Phatjam98

Somehow the 2nd best selling game and possibly best selling game ever of its kind Skyrim is not even mentioned? Thats just silly

RippySLO
RippySLO

@snake2215449 Skyrim and BF3 sold really well on PC and somewhat less on consoles which this report is centerd around.

Fallen566
Fallen566

Saint Row:The Third is still really awsome!

botsio
botsio

people shouldn't hate on call of duty.MW3 was the best shooter this year.BF3.tried but could not match up to it after all the hype.so lets wait and see the shooter that can topple call of duty.for now its the best hands down!

smoman5000
smoman5000

Nothing about UC3 or skyrim....ohhhhh, this is a Pachter article nevermind. Article spoiler: he jumps CoD's bone for a while and sprinkles info about other titles that he doesnt get paid for mentioning.

f1elds
f1elds

what of uncharted 3 and skyrim how did they perform?

Spartan_418
Spartan_418

Fingers crossed that CoD will start to decline next year. Time to give other, better shooters a chance at success

tonyhawksP8
tonyhawksP8

NFS failing to sell I'm not suprised after all that they did to that series.

steelmouth
steelmouth

its great to see Need for Speed: The Run doing so badly welldone EA i see its realy really tough for the ps3 even after a 41% jump it still only did 750,000

CptRexKramer
CptRexKramer

@X_Colbert_X I agree. And as for THQ, well, they kind of deserve the soft sales. Why on earth would you ever release a shooter around the same time as COD and Battlefield is beyond me. Probably should have waited and released it closer to Christmas, or early 2012. SR3 never had a chance, no matter how fun it is to play.

berto64
berto64

hmm not bad for MW3 despte of "being the same".sold well.to say i enjoyed it and survival and the campaign made it a big hit. and to you haters if you dont like CoD go back t your BF3 and shut up.geeez jsut let the MW3 gamers enjoy the game.how hard is that.

berto64
berto64

@tarikm92f haha totally agree on that dude;)

X_Colbert_X
X_Colbert_X

Michael Patcher: Getting grossly-overpaid to make generalized predictions about obvious economic events since who gives a ****.

markcusdd
markcusdd

SR3 is excellent but I was wondering myself why they were releasing it a week after COD.

inaka_rob
inaka_rob

"Modern Warfare 3 ignites November retail growth" yeah and marks the end decent gaming as we know it. Just look at sony's annoucnment to aim at younger gamers now. Hard core gamers are getting left in the dust. causel gaming frat boys and little kid gamers are what propelled sales of MW3 and that is where the rest of industry is going. who can blame them. its a business. Hardcore gamers who made and supported the industry and made it what it is are going to get $$$$ on and always come 2nd from now on.

Vangaurdius
Vangaurdius

Yes, it sure did IGNITE the industry's PASSION and caused quite the retail GROWTH.

snake2215449
snake2215449

For some reason I can never believe this guy. How could he not mention Battlefield 3 and Skyrim in his report? I like how everyone says that EA is playing dirty by dissing at Call of Duty but Activision is the one paying these stupid analysts.

Tsuchikage
Tsuchikage

No mention of Skyrim in November sales? From my understanding, that game's been kind of a juggernaut.

godzillavskong
godzillavskong

Even Michael Pachter could've predicted this. lol

pycho22solid
pycho22solid

I don't mind the guy but...does every article involving sales or retail need to have Pachter's opinion crammed into it?

ash162
ash162

Didn't get mw3 but having a ball with the saints!! S*** on that pachter!

folklorico
folklorico

fatigue is always good, that means that devs will have to get creative now instead of just relasing the same game again (MW3) or take a step backwards in a series (ACR)

Mar044
Mar044

this was the first time i was diapointed in the cod game, i just found that the forumla hit a dead end.

XxKing_BlazexX
XxKing_BlazexX

MW3 just doesn't have that WOW factor like cod4, or mw2. The campaign is wayyyyy too short, and the maps just don't give you enough freedom like they used to. Oh well. Still got Bf3,(which offers more new things) Batman, AC:revelations, Sonic Generations and above all, SKYRIM. So I'm good.

JasPlun
JasPlun

Yep economic growth based on credit cards it will fix alot of things for sure.

nousername66
nousername66

So long as kids dominate the video game market, crappy games like MW3 will sell a lot. Franchise fatigue is an understatement with this crappy map pack of MW2.

lilflex1
lilflex1

Patchers just like ms cleo theres those thats smart enough to know everything she's says is fake while theres those calling in wanting information

HaloPimp978
HaloPimp978

Is it me or is Pachter in every "analyst" article.

Triton
Triton

Wow, MW3 started it all... and I didn't even buy it yet. But I did buy in November Fifa12, Panzer Corps on the PC, Batman and Forza4, but I guess it was all cause MW3 came out that I did this. Now I know, glad I know the reason now. Who comes up with this stuff...