Modern Warfare 3 could sell over 20M units - Analyst

Wedbush Securities' Michael Pachter says latest Call of Duty may eclipse sales of Black Ops; thinks Elite will cause some to "defect" to Battlefield 3.

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On November 8, Activision will ship its latest Call of Duty entry, the Infinity Ward-Sledgehammer Games-developed Modern Warfare 3. That game has large shoes to fill, as its predecessor--Call of Duty: Black Ops--is the best-selling game of all time not only in the United States but also in the United Kingdom.

Modern Warfare 3 is going to be a big hit, says Pachter.

However, Black Ops is not untouchable, according to Wedbush Securities' Michael Pachter. He believes Modern Warfare 3 could surpass sales of 20 million units, a figure he predicted Black Ops has sold to date in May. Officially, Black Ops has sold 13.7 million units in the United States. However, the shooter has likely sold many more copies than that, as it has graced the NPD's top 10 software list often since its arrival.

Pachter justified his belief that Modern Warfare 3 will break Black Ops' record "due primarily to the network effect created by the game's remarkable 17 million weekly active unique online players."

Pachter believes that Activision's introduction of Call of Duty: Elite--a stat-tracking and social application--could cause some Call of Duty fans to "defect" to Electronic Arts' Battlefield 3, which ships before Modern Warfare 3 on October 25. The beta for Call of Duty: Elite launches on Thursday.

Modern Warfare 3 outselling Black Ops is not a completely wild prediction. GameStop reported in June that preorder figures for Modern Warfare 3 are tracking ahead of Black Ops'. Additionally, Activision CEO Bobby Kotick has previously stated his belief that each entry in the series will outpace the last.

For more on Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3, check out GameSpot's latest preview of the game.

Discussion

351 comments
macpon88
macpon88

You see im not going to bother with crap everyone here seems to be spewing...im going to save up..im going to buy BOTH of them ( of god hes crazy! ) and im going to judge for myself which is better because im not going to be influenced by people who dont even know how these games are going to play out. I like battlefield! Its a great game to play...i like call of duty! Its also a great game to play... Im not going to boycott one in a stupid loyalty to the other..what do u expect to get a thank you note from the creaters about how cherished your loyalty is?...no your retarded. Im going to have fun on both.

Maddogtaylor
Maddogtaylor

@tonnfool23 awww im sure your just nervous, but yeah thanks for the tip i learnt not to with my parents...just play cod and ignore her :P

TonnFool23
TonnFool23

@Maddogtaylor Getting a girlfriend isn't everything...i'm engaged and I regret it. PRO TIP: Don't rush into things, and don't give into horrible demands.

nyran125
nyran125

1 thing call of duty does have with at least 3 + million gamers over Battlefield 3 is STEAM. Battlefield 3 will not be on STEAM. What makes you people think Modern Warfare 3 is worked on any less than Battlefield 3? Because its got more money? If it has more money. dont you think it has more resources to put just as much effort in and THEN some? All call of duty Modern Warfare needs to do, to beat or MATCH BAttlefield in gameplay, is add vehicles and big maps with loads of flags and yoove got a battlefield game. At least Call Of Duty puts a bit of effort into its single player game too. For all you people saying BF3 is going to own MW3, the games arent even out yet AND not everyone enjoys Battlefield gameplay. The Battlefield fanboys are really starting to turn me off wanting to even play BF3.

aesndk
aesndk

@nick1028 make that 19,999,998

SemiMaster
SemiMaster

Hey Mike P., I'll make your job easy, the next Zelda, Pokemon, Resident Evil and Halo are going to sell multiple millions of copies too. Seriously, this guy is famous for sayin big name games will make lots of money?

Maddogtaylor
Maddogtaylor

@tonnfool23 nope i was trying to be as simple as possible because it is actually that simple no need to overcomplicate it with philisophical mumbo jumbo keep it simple haha, if you want to be clever you're in the wrong place these are just games to pass the time right? chill out get a girlfriend and be happy, life also is that simple apply it :P

bluedarrk
bluedarrk

@daemoroth I completely agree with you. BF3 will not get touched by the casual gamer. I don't think the hardcore gamers realize whats happening to the game industry. Its a casual game industry. It doesn't help that the critics support certain games that are the same thing. I'm not saying that BF3 is going to be a bad game and that I won't get it. I'm saying that people need to realize that CoD is growing because the casual gaming market is growing. I think EA needs to focus on promoting the game play not so much the engine and fancy graphics because BF3 doesn't look as great for consoles. The casual gamer might see those awesome BF3 graphics for computer then play it on their 360 or ps3 and be like this game doesn't look that cool. Then because all their friends have MW3 they will pick that up instead. At gamestop we are promoting MW3 way more than BF3 and thats because our corporate office says to.

Daemoroth
Daemoroth

@bluedarrk, I'm sure most of us looking forward to BF3 aren't naive enough to think it will outsell MW3, I know it won't. But that's what saddens me - the fact that quality and effort has no bearing on the outcome. Compare the amount of effort DICE has already put into BF3, with the amount of effort put into MW3 (You could probably combine MW3, MW2 and BO and still come up short) and then compare their relative (expected) level of success. It's just a really sad state of gaming really. The more the casual market is pandered to, the less innovative games need to be, they just need to provide instant gratification and all is well.

bluedarrk
bluedarrk

@mikees1 what charts are you looking at? I run a local gamestop and I see the midwest regions pre-orders its a 5:1 ratio. BF3 isn't even close. If you believe BF3 will outsell MW3 you don't have a clue how big CoD really is. Even the critics will say wait to MW3 comes out before buying BF3 just like with MoH. EA is pushing the new engine and amazing graphics but not game play. CoD sells because people love the game play if they cared about the graphics they wouldn't play it. I guarantee you prolly said that black ops won't sell that well also. Every year people bash CoD but it sells more and more why is that? So what's wrong if people only want to play CoD? That is their choice and opinion. The casual gaming market loves CoD and the casual gaming market is growing. BF3 is more of the hardcore gaming market and its not just a pick up and play game like CoD. BF3 is strategy and a lot more realistic. CoD is run and gun and your put in the action right away thats what the casual gamer loves, its easy to pick up and play. But keep looking at your charts I'm sure once both launch you will see BF3 get snubbed by the critics and casual gaming market.

nick1028
nick1028

yeah.... make that 19,999,999 i will never purchase from activision again

mikees1
mikees1

@bluedarrk At the end of the day someone below had the perfect answer which i am going to re-use as it is perfectly apt for the rehashed,repackaged garbage that is CoD, it is this......Justin Bieber probably out sells Beethoven it in no way makes him better than Beethoven though.

mikees1
mikees1

@bluedarrk Actually again you are wrong. BF3 currently has exceptionally more pre orders that MW3. Look at the pre order charts, BF3 sits firmly at the top, where it should be. It may not sell as much as CoD (but it will not be far off) but currently the buzz is more about BF3 as its a completely new game, with much more realism and alot less arcade. I do not mean to be harsh about your game (MW3) but the term that people use for CoD players is very very true to form......That word is sheep! They buy it because its all they know, does not change from title to title and thats why people stick with it. Theres nothing new in any CoD game other than the name and thats why people buy it as they do not have to improve their game or master new skills. Would be quite interesting if there was some sort of I.Q test of players of both games, i know whose players would top that test, it would not be the CoD ones lol.

spiky1994
spiky1994

[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]

x-2tha-z
x-2tha-z

I'm proud to not be part of the twenty million.

TonnFool23
TonnFool23

@Maddogtaylor "modern warfares are always going to be better because they are more fun lol its that simple, no over analyzing needed they just are most people agree since more people play the modern warfares for a long period of time." Really you're 21? Stop lying to yourself, only a 11 year old would make a comment stupid like that. Besides, sales/popularity doesn't mean anything its like saying Justin Beiber is better than Beethoven.

Maddogtaylor
Maddogtaylor

@tonnfool23 well im 21 so you do the math, besides what has half life got to do with anything i was posting about mw3?

bluedarrk
bluedarrk

@mikees1 yeah CoD has been the same game every year we all know that, but the thing your forgetting is that each ones outsells the previous one. CoD isn't declining in sales its growing. MW3 will sell 20 million+ and BF3 won't come close. You say you will never play it again or buy another CoD and that's fine. But when one person quits and gets tired of CoD 10 new people pick it up and start playing it. Every year people bash say they won't buy the next CoD and that it won't sell blah blah blah but in reality it sells more and more. CoD is more of a social gathering than a game. People buy it and play it because their friends do. At Christmas time when parents come into a gamestop and ask the sales associate what game should I buy for my little brat the sales associate will say MW3 not BF3. Everyone here who hates CoD and wants it to die needs to realize CoD is getting bigger not smaller. The midwest region for gamestop has 5 MW3 reservations to 1 BF3 reservations. All the critics will praise MW3 so that will help it sell as well as a great marketing campaign.

Takeno456
Takeno456

I just hope BF3 is more like BF2 and less like anything CoD related.

vault-boy
vault-boy

im not buying it... CoD is the most overrated series in video game history

gfnx
gfnx

I must confess that I'm really keen on buying both... Let's just hope that I could afford it lol...

holtrocks
holtrocks

@coylenintendo you should really put all those in 1

holtrocks
holtrocks

CoD is for little kids and people who don't want to use anypart of their brain BF is for more mature people who like to use teamwork and win not to just score kills and BF actually has new things added to them not just rehash after rehash.

holtrocks
holtrocks

CoD is for little kids and people who don't want to use anypart of their brain BF is for more mature people who like to use teamwork and win not to just score kills

couchtater12345
couchtater12345

CoD has gone from a game that mostly only hardcore gamers played to something comparable to wii sports for preteens. Anyone who knows anything about games these days will grace the servers of BF3. That said, due to their being so many ignorant 12 year olds, Bobby Kotick will continue to be able to be his smug douchebag self

godtony50
godtony50

well i ant buying this!!!!!!!!!

Landsharkk
Landsharkk

The fact is, out of about half the people I talk to who all own multiple call of duty or modern warfare games(including myself), they are now saying they are done with the call of duty/mw series and will be buying BF3 instead. That right there is a guarantee that MW3 is not going to be nearly as popular as they hope. How can a game do even better sales than previous years if a good portion of the previous playerbase is shying away from the franchise? It doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that MW3, may sell well, but will sell less copies than black ops has.

mikees1
mikees1

CONT Even to the point that the click produced when firing with an empty clip is the same across the class, details that Battlefield is renowned for checking out and doing their best to produce. Sorry mate but Battlefields a whole new game, a total reworked from the ground up title and a different beast to its forebear. Why d'you think CoD is available every year to the day? Its because they do not have to do a great deal of work to get out a new title, nothing new to invent equals shorter development process.Prime example, GTA 4. The two mini games spun out of that were marketed at normal DLC prices or if you wanted it in box form half the price of the original, why? because it used the same engine with just new protagonist and a few more interior/exterior locations and some new vehicles and weapons.D'you think it would have been as big had they both been full price (and lets be fair, both had multi player and the single player of both were triple the campaign in any CoD) In my opinion if you buy a game that you know is just going to be the same as the last then its either your parents money or you're are just not financially astute.thanx and rant over.

mikees1
mikees1

@bluedarrk You are seriously wrong my friend! People are getting sick of paying 50 pounds for the same game they got last year,just re boxed and re-skinned. Then another 30 or 40 for DLC. Tell me, what new innovations has call of duty brought in the last year? Actually scratch that, the last 3 years? oh a few more kill streaks that are on rails and just let you point them to where you want it go also new destinations.Its an arcade game plain and simple very repetitive and boring after a couple of days (I have kept BO for zombies, modern warfare 2 was traded in after 3 months). Black Ops is defiantly my last CoD, if everything is to believed it'll be a lot of other peoples last too. Lets put it this way, why would I want to buy a game no different to last years except location/era when I still own last years? Certainly not for new weapons because the detail is not there, there's nothing really to distinguish between any weapons at all. Cont

Draken_Domingo
Draken_Domingo

I hate to say it, but noticing the trend of Call of Duty reviews thus far, Battlefield 3 is gonna fall short in both score AND sales...not because MW3 is the better game, but because (not to point fingers) but MW3 is just gonna be overhyped out the rear. They'll find some way to bash something about BF3 (like complain about the huge maps or the fact it actually takes skill to use certain weapons instead of just point and shoot shenanigans) and praise MW3 for "balanced gameplay and slick graphics" (pretty much the same thing being touted about every COD since MW1 discluding WaW) It's sad that the better game won't win, but that's what happens when a market begins appealing to the masses...and yes, I am indeed implying Call of Duty is casual, prove me wrong.

NeoEnigma
NeoEnigma

"Defect" to Battlefield 3? More like people will "come to their senses" and get the better game. BF has always been better than CoD....

BlackBaldwin
BlackBaldwin

I'm not gonna buy mw3 just because I'm picking up bf3 instead. Infinity ward will make a better cod then treyarch but I'm tired of doing the samething over and over again so I wish infinityward good luck and hopefully mw3 will be BA..

CTR360
CTR360

MW3 sells for months

TonnFool23
TonnFool23

@coylenintendo Rofl the douchebag even reported me, so what I've said about him must be true. And it's funny how he deleted his comment as well...very slick troll boy.

warhawk-geeby
warhawk-geeby

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jscapo
jscapo

This Is all speculation. You are all saying the same thing over and over again. Now I am doing it. Everyone knows how popular this series is at this point. You can put dookie in a box; label it MW3 anid still make a profit. But I do not agree with Kotick's last word on this article. He will ride this train until it falls apart, or until the next best thing comes out. For some of you, it looks like BF3 is a suitable replacement. Unfortunatley it's not for me. I will End up buying this game because it is the best right now.

YoungCardinal
YoungCardinal

So far both MW3 and BF3 are outselling Black Ops in preorders. BF3 is currently leading overall.

GameFan1983
GameFan1983

Sadly, MW3 will probably sell that much even all critics rate it 1/10, and BF3 will probably be 1/3 that even though it will easily score at least a 9/10.

thereal-15-cent
thereal-15-cent

I hope BF3 wins. Activision is greedy, they charge tons of money for things that should already be in the game.... Zombies mode was the main draw in Black Ops, and they only put like 2 non DLC maps in the game. And CoD hasn't changed in years... MW3 isn't a game, it's an add-on.

coylenintendo
coylenintendo

[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]

coylenintendo
coylenintendo

@Daemoroth I hope you don't think I called you a fanboy, I'm just talking about them in general. I agree with you though, I hate when bullets don't hit you in COD but your player dies anyway. I'll buy MW3 but that doesn't mean I won't like playing it more than a couple hours a week, at the absolute most. I'm actually buying BF3 too because there's no doubt it'll be a good game.

StingrayX5
StingrayX5

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Daemoroth
Daemoroth

@coylenintendo, true enough, but I don't consider myself a fanboy of either - I'll be waiting on the reviews. I do enjoy BFs destructive environments and the fact that bullets actually have to travel to the target more than the 'instagib' CoD matches, that's my primary reason for leaning towards BF3. An added plus is that DICE try to improve on the previous game, where it seems like Activision just reskins the same engine, makes a new menu and SP mini-campaign with some box art and releases it at full price.

StingrayX5
StingrayX5

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

coylenintendo
coylenintendo

@Daemoroth fine, I'll post calmly instead of stupid like I was. point is, no you didn't exactly strike a nerve. it's just you people are no better than COD fanboys. I barely play video games to begin with anymore. it's just sad seeing all these people cry about a video game being repetitive but then they repeat each other like little kids.

Daemoroth
Daemoroth

@coylenintendo, did we strike a nerve with a sledgehammer or something? You only have to post one message to get your point across: "If you disagree with me, you're a gay/pedophile/moron/sheep/no-lifer/uninformed dolt. If you agree with me, I love you and you speak the truth!"

coylenintendo
coylenintendo

@StingrayX5 also, I know COD is almost the same every time. oh well? it's fun. I play COD maybe a few times a month. now that's what people don't realize. any video game is gonna be boring if your playing time reaches 20 days within the first month. yeah sure, Battlefield has more to it. that's why people prefer because it fits their nerdy needs.

coylenintendo
coylenintendo

[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]