Microsoft predicts 3 million Kinect-ions this holiday

Product director Aaron Greenberg says retail channel checks indicate Xbox 360 add-on will go triple platinum this year.

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Up until last night, Microsoft had largely considered only the casual and family-friendly crowd when announcing games for its camera-based motion-sensing Xbox 360 add-on, Kinect. As part of its 2010 Tokyo Game Show press conference, though, Microsoft offered first word on a number of core-gaming titles, including Grasshopper Manufacture's Codename D, From Software's Steel Battalion, and Sega's Rise of Nightmares, further broadening the audience of potentially interested gamers.

Microsoft plans on staring into 3 million living rooms via Kinect this year.

With Kinect set to make its North American debut on November 4, Microsoft believes that interest will result in a multimillion-unit performance by the peripheral before the year is out. Speaking to Gamasutra, Microsoft's Xbox product director, Aaron Greenberg, predicted that Kinect will sell 3 million units this holiday season alone.

"Our key indicators are feedback from retailers," he said. "I think you'd be surprised at how sophisticated they are, and they really have the pulse of the market. They're looking at preorders, they're talking to customers. We've also done our own research. We believe this will be the biggest launch in our history, for Xbox. We will sell more Kinect sensors than we did [systems] at Xbox 360 launch."

"Our estimates [indicate] that we will sell in excess of 3 million units this holiday," he continued. He also noted that Microsoft is spending "hundreds of millions" in marketing, a figure that exceeds what the publisher spent on the launch of the Xbox 360.

Despite its lofty goal, Microsoft's estimate is actually conservative compared to sales projections by Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian. Last month, the noted industry prognosticator raised his forecast for Kinect sales from 3 million to 4 million, due in part to his belief that Microsoft plans to flood retail channels with Xbox 360 bundles featuring the device.

Of those bundles, Microsoft has announced a $300 Xbox 360S-Kinect package that includes the peripheral, a new 4GB slimline console, and Kinect Adventures. A $400 variant featuring the 250GB Xbox 360S is also en route. Alternatively, gamers can pick up Kinect as a stand-alone offering for $150.

Discussion

170 comments
tauro125
tauro125

The marketing is not for us. It's for people that don't know anything about gaming, obviously anyone on this website knows enough about the gaming industry to form our own opinions through personal experience and reviews. They are spending millions to generate more interest from mums and young children (basically the wii's market). I'm looking forward to getting kinect around christmas when I get the money and am looking forward to what publishers come up with when they decide to fully invest in kinect titles

cayden175
cayden175

Kinect looks great, but are they able to tackle the first person shooter? I would really love to play cod and halo games on this!

DisturbedClown
DisturbedClown

I don't understand why they assume spending so much money on advertising will make their product seem better. Rarely have I ever seen a product on TV, and then went to buy it. Ads, personally, don't work. So, maybe Microsoft should stop cramming it down our throats, let us make up our own minds, and stop trying to treat us like sheep. That will just follow the trend, and be another number in their 'lofty goal'.

mlberube
mlberube

If I did my math correctly, after selling 3 million units of just the Kinect unit @$150, Microsoft will still be $50M in the hole from the advertizing blitz. That is an insane amount of money to spend on advertising. CAn't help but think of all the deserving causes out there that could benefit from that money. :-(

bandit7319
bandit7319

Looks like a lot of people aren't lookin forward to this one too much... and I'm with them lol. I think the premise of Kinect is cool, but I don't really see any good practical game applications. I remember seeing this same thing back in the mid 90's when I was popping bubbles on a big screen with my hands, feet, head, etc. The Move makes more sense to me since it actually has a controller. Seeing the application of the sword and shield kind of game looked cool. But, even the Move doesn't appeal to me too much. Neither one of these are for me.

fattass21
fattass21

i expect them to get a lot of money out of this. i want one, because, well, i want one. it seems cool to me and i dont really care what others think. i believe i will enjoy it so im willing to spend some money on it. the only problem is, i thought there will be left overs so i didnt preorder it. well that shows to show how many people just got owned. newegg, gamestop, and amazon, all sold out already. i dont know if they will hit 3 million this year, but i know they are going to get a crap load of money already.

Gamebit257
Gamebit257

Microsoft is drugged????Omg!!! 3 millions just about years

ishan316
ishan316

I believe this will work, if not now, may be 6 months from now, when there are more games available.

wahyudil
wahyudil

3 million ... well thats logical ... but i'm not a buyer

turtlebird95
turtlebird95

I won't buy Kinect until there is an absolute must reason to own it. Sorry, but if 3 million people buy kinect, I'm not one of them.

pupaboy
pupaboy

I have gone to four local GameStops and they said that their preorder sales are LOUSY. Microsoft can't be serious about 4 million.

Waldkrieger
Waldkrieger

@JJMikhail: No one had any anger issues, certainly not me. I simply have my opinion. I do not agree with your assessment and your interpretation of X360 or PS3. It may do other things, but its main use is for gaming first and foremost. Motion sensing gimmicks are worthless and nonsense. Good day sir.

Xhawk2004
Xhawk2004

3 million sold ??? They are out of their minds. Cheap camera resolution + very high price tag + no 'must have' titles = 400k sold tops. I like MS, but they dont stand a chance with this.

coutcha__
coutcha__

motion stuff... there is no way this will work as they expected... fos a simple reason unlike the wii this isn't new... so it will fail

JJMikhail
JJMikhail

@Waldkrieger Forgive me but I don't intend to continue to discuss topics with those who have anger issues. On a more important note, the Xbox 360 as everyone will know, allows you to play music and watch DVD therefore, it is NOT a gaming console and neither is the PS3 for that matter. The Xbox 360, as per Microsoft's advertisement is "the xbox 360 gives you the ultimate gaming and entertainment experience" Which part of the above states the Xbox 360 is a gaming console ONLY? The aim of Kinect is to, as Microsoft state, bring "games and entertainment to life in extraordinary new ways". Not using the controller is exactly that, myself along with many out there like to experience something different, something new and not just the never ending of the same thing but in the words of Warren Spector, games are the same as before but with improved graphics, it's time to move forward a bit more in tech and instead of being lazy on the couch. I look forward to Kinect arriving in November (pending no delays).

anthonycg
anthonycg

I think Microsoft and Sony are way too optimistic about this motion stuff.

Waldkrieger
Waldkrieger

@JJMikhail : Funny, its called a Gaming Console, which means it plays games, so that is what it was designed for pal. If I want "social networking" or other things I'll use my PC. No, I am not worried about price. Why? Because I have zero use or care for motion sensing devices on any console. This is half the reason I do not own a Wii. Your picking the wrong person to have this discussion with. I am for games, NOT gimmicks. Jumping around a room like a hyperactive ape to play a "game" is about as worth while to me as picking lint off the carpet by hand. Worthless and nonsense.

JJMikhail
JJMikhail

@Waldkrieger Xbox 360 was never designed just to be a 'gaming' system, sorry to disappoint but it's true. If you are worried about price I don't think Microsoft spend a few 'pennies' to make such a new-tech device, a lot has been invested in design and it's creation. By the way, speaking of new tech if you were to get a full setup for PS3 move it would end up costing just under £130 and that's for about two players. Kinect is not defined by games but by the multimedia experience therefore things like social networking is to be judged in there as well.

eal-zubieri
eal-zubieri

Yeah,keep on dreaming microsoft.i am not going to throw 150$ out to the street with some party games.

S001-PRIMAL
S001-PRIMAL

wow if this fails, microsoft will have alot of explaning to do to all their fellow stockholders due to all the money dumped on zune. sony and nintendo must be laughing their asses off at this, they'll b lucky to seel 300 of these in europe after the "relatively low" preorder sales

Zloth2
Zloth2

Yeah, no more gimmicks! Why do game developers keep wasting their time with these 3D models, anyway? What do they add to a game that sprite graphics couldn't do just as well!? Seriously, that's what a lot of you folks sound like. However... 3 to 4 million!?!? I don't know who they are trying to fool with a statement like that. Maybe over the next five years they can hit that, assuming the prices come down a bit and more games get made for the system.

Waldkrieger
Waldkrieger

@JJMikhail : Motion sensing is rubbish. It's not my cup of tea, not even close. I do not play games to dance around the room like an ape. I am not into gimmicks, only games.

GONtheSKYLORD
GONtheSKYLORD

@raahsnavj It will sell no question. Microsoft has a real talent for tricking people into giving them more and more money. As much as I hate seeing people get swindled by them, I must admit, nobody is better at marketing. I mean, they could sell crack to Jesus.

raahsnavj
raahsnavj

When this doesn't sell well I wonder what MS next plan will be...

kunal1092000
kunal1092000

@ebookerd1 No game on a console I know of is truly 1080p. Only upscaled version of a lower res pic

ebookerd1
ebookerd1

I might buy the 400 I need a new 360 so that I can get my 1080P 360!! :)

tenaus
tenaus

Hope its going to be good

ebookerd1
ebookerd1

Good because the original 4 million seemed insane!!

NND1
NND1

I already have my kinect pre oredered, its too awesome.. You haters need to stop.. Did I mention I am also getting the Move???? they are both awesome...

chingchow48
chingchow48

IM also very amused how people are calling the Wii stupid? I mean come on people its outsold the PS3 and the Xbox 2-1 obviously there is a much higher "family video gamer" market then you thought or are you guys just too "hardcore" for those games, True hard core gamers like video games, to bash a whole system and a company that practically started the home console and hand held console craz you are idiots

chingchow48
chingchow48

I was predicting 5 million but i guess i was a little off do people still no understand this is microsoft? The company that has sold a flawed xbox 360 system to beat the more advanced and free online PS3? Its called marketing people Microsoft knows how to do it and they do it damn well, ill still hold my 5 million sold estimate, I wont be buying it but i know about 7-8 people who are getting it on the first day

hotdiddykong
hotdiddykong

I'm not convinced till I see more better games, sonic free riders is good but I need more. @ArMnD9 kidy? They have more family games, they still make bloody,action and other games and games that doesn't need violence or sex to be great You FAIL

monson21502
monson21502

@zequex, there is 2 kinect system bundles. one for 299 and the other for 399. im getting the 399 one its the better start off deal imo

monson21502
monson21502

ok. if you could have a dollar for every ps move bundle or kinect sold. which one would you pick?

kvan33
kvan33

3 million sold???? How many will MS be buying back to inflate the numbers?

DeViLzzz
DeViLzzz

for the price they are charging I have no interest

zequex
zequex

I might get it. I already have a Wii and we have a PS3. I've been thinking about getting a 360 and if there is a bundle with Kinect it might be cheaper to get them together. I will have to actually try Kinect first though. I play games with friends so I actually use the Wii more than PS3. I like the idea of motion capture with HD graphics. ....also no recharging controllers. Yay!

ArMnD9
ArMnD9

@ FonikhSoupia If you want casual games, i suggest you get a Wii. Those games are kidy and fun for the whole family. Thats casual. But Xbox is and always will be hardcore. Id hate to see them go towards the family side. If they do, goodbye game industry.......

ArMnD9
ArMnD9

I cant wait to see this fail. Wii is already stupid enough to play (its just a way for fat ppl to exercise), so this is even more stupid cuz theres no controller. I mean, who wants to be seen talking to their xbox and jumping around like an idiot? Nobody i hope...

Wish01
Wish01

Common sense tells you get a Wii instead for nearly the same price if you don't have one already. What awful pricing Microsoft!

JJMikhail
JJMikhail

@Waldkrieger Garbage? So you currently own one before it's release? I'm a, how do you say it, 'hardcore gamer' and still like Kinect because it's a change, not to mention how any 'hardcore gamers' can be satisfied when the newer games aren't much different to the older ones. I see this as a positive, should sales drop for those who like to use the controller then it might cause those developers to have a rethink since we all demand more rather than the usual.

Dekanis
Dekanis

Meh. Wii is my motion sensing console, 360 is for my... non-motion sensing needs lol. I like a lot of the games on wii with motion sensing, people said how ridiculous people would look using the wii remote... I reckon it is going to be very strange to not have a remote at all... @Jimbobthon I agree, they should keep the motion sensing for party games, etc. not so much the hardcore games... I guess we will have to wait and see :)

Jimbobthon
Jimbobthon

Just don't force all Core gamers to buy Kinect, not everyone/most people i know and have played against don't want to look like an arse playing games this way. I'm not critizing sales figures, i reckon they could get the sales they need. Families mainly, because this is what i see as a party/casual accessory. It will bring the family together, just like how the Wii did.

FonikhSoupia
FonikhSoupia

Why so much hate? It was about time that MS stopped thinking only about hardcore gamers and gave casual gamers a chance???

SpedKnight
SpedKnight

i might think about buying the kinect if there were some games for it. the only real reason im buying the move is because of the hardcore games comin. and i cant wait for all the wii re-hashes to go away....because for the most part they are all going to blow. off topic i know...aplologies.