Kinect will be 'big winner' in holiday 2010 - Study

Both analysts and Microsoft are under the impression that the Xbox 360's new motion-sensing peripheral, Kinect, will be a hit this holiday season. For Microsoft, its confidence in the system selling some 3 million units before the end of year is almost expected, considering a New York Post report indicating the software giant plans to spend $500 million on marketing Kinect.

Industry research firms are getting behind Kinect as well. This week, global market research firm Ipsos proclaimed Kinect the "big game winner" in the US during the holiday season, after a poll measuring market potential for Microsoft's system and Sony's own new motion controller, Move.

Ipsos' call is based on its assessment of market success, which is measured by purchase intent, price/value, uniqueness, and believability. According to its findings, Kinect boasts a market success score of 130 out of 200, while the PlayStation Move earned a 110.

The Xbox 360 add-on gained the majority of its ground in the uniqueness and believability metrics. Out of a five-point scale, Kinect scored a 3.6 in uniqueness (compared to 3.0 for the Move). Believability, which measures whether a consumer believes the device will actually work, stood at 44 percent for Kinect, compared to just 29 percent for the Move.

"Given a new usage experience, one might expect some level of skepticism among respondents for Kinect," the firm said in a statement. "Surprisingly, though, Kinect excels on both uniqueness and believability versus other tech products in the Vantis database. PS Move is rather weak on both dimensions."

Ipsos also found that Microsoft can exploit its advantage by keeping its marketing campaign focused on the idea of "no controller required" for Kinect. The firm found that when Microsoft promotes other features of Kinect, the system's "buzz power" drops from the top 20 percentile to "below average."