Kinect will be 'big winner' in holiday 2010 - Study

Market research firm Ipsos says Microsoft's new Xbox 360 motion controller will top PlayStation Move due to uniqueness, believability.

Both analysts and Microsoft are under the impression that the Xbox 360's new motion-sensing peripheral, Kinect, will be a hit this holiday season. For Microsoft, its confidence in the system selling some 3 million units before the end of year is almost expected, considering a New York Post report indicating the software giant plans to spend $500 million on marketing Kinect.

Research points to Kinect as being the "big winner" this holiday.

Industry research firms are getting behind Kinect as well. This week, global market research firm Ipsos proclaimed Kinect the "big game winner" in the US during the holiday season, after a poll measuring market potential for Microsoft's system and Sony's own new motion controller, Move.

Ipsos' call is based on its assessment of market success, which is measured by purchase intent, price/value, uniqueness, and believability. According to its findings, Kinect boasts a market success score of 130 out of 200, while the PlayStation Move earned a 110.

The Xbox 360 add-on gained the majority of its ground in the uniqueness and believability metrics. Out of a five-point scale, Kinect scored a 3.6 in uniqueness (compared to 3.0 for the Move). Believability, which measures whether a consumer believes the device will actually work, stood at 44 percent for Kinect, compared to just 29 percent for the Move.

"Given a new usage experience, one might expect some level of skepticism among respondents for Kinect," the firm said in a statement. "Surprisingly, though, Kinect excels on both uniqueness and believability versus other tech products in the Vantis database. PS Move is rather weak on both dimensions."

Ipsos also found that Microsoft can exploit its advantage by keeping its marketing campaign focused on the idea of "no controller required" for Kinect. The firm found that when Microsoft promotes other features of Kinect, the system's "buzz power" drops from the top 20 percentile to "below average."

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386 comments
dead_EMO_poet
dead_EMO_poet

i recall m$ paying alot money for HD DVD development, putting it in their system blah blah blah..and we see how that went. i own all three consoles, and do plan to buy kinect (only when there is actually a game worth getting). i have MOVE, which on its release had multiple games that were either good or decent, as well as already released games that were compatible. would love to see kinect with resident evil 5...oh wait..i forgot...

steelmouth
steelmouth

thats what i have been saying all along

Latino1982
Latino1982

Kinect: No controleers, just a camera

Latino1982
Latino1982

@DDR_Midian: im not just talking about the camera, im talking about the general product. Wii: Wiimote + Nunchuk | PSMove: PSMote + Nunchuk (note that the PSMoveNunchuk doesnt have motion capabilities) | Kinect: No Controllers, just a camera

Latino1982
Latino1982

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

NND1
NND1

This Eye toy is definitly a lot Cooler than the MOVE and I own the MOVE...

DDR_Midian
DDR_Midian

@Latino1982 *cough*EyeToycamefirst*cough* I agree, Kinect will sell well, then the real gamers will realize it's terrible, and the children and grannies will flock to the dance and exercise games. I'm sure looking forward to that!

kavadias1981
kavadias1981

@Latino1982 Said with anger but completely true.

Latino1982
Latino1982

to the ps3 fanboys: at least microsoft came up with a new idea, not like sony and the copy of the nintendo Wii. I've been playing Wii from the time it came out and i really like it, and I think that to jump to a second generation of motion controllers Kinect will win. Also I still remember the HARDCORE gamers saying that they will never play a game waving their arms like in the Wii. What now? the PS Move is hardcore bcs it has HD graphics ... if you still going on about graphics then you are STUPID, as I said before: games are to have fun and not only to look at beautiful graphics, how many games for the Wii dont have HD graphics but are way better games that HD Games, take Super Mario Galaxy for example. nuff said!

kavadias1981
kavadias1981

@XanderZane I agree. Every new tech needs a settling in period and Kinect and Move are no exception. Right now they have nowt decent. Give them a year or two and we'll see. C'mon people, there is no sense in arguing over a pair of products that are still in their infancy.

joshboy101
joshboy101

Everyone is just in a cold sweat at microsoft with an hour of sleep a night hoping this thing will succeed. Cause if it doesn't....it equals less money....which equals debt....which equals less jobs.

guitarist1980
guitarist1980

500 million marketing budget... they have to sell a lot of kinects to break even on just the marketing alone. However because they invested probably close to a billion dollars on r and d and manufacturing and marketing, I have a feeling that Kinect will be implented on there future console as well.

just_nonplussed
just_nonplussed

of course it will. MS has paid for it to be a 'big winner'!

ClaudiusCaesar
ClaudiusCaesar

@XanderZane That technology can only give you jumps and kicks (with delay, appropriated light and enough room). Anything else will be a frustration. Even ping-pong does not work well (table tennis? totally impossible!). But, a family can have lots of fun jumping and kicking (oops, I forgot, dancing too).

XanderZane
XanderZane

@ClaudiusCaesar said: @XanderZane @sleepnsurf Don't get me wrong, I'm laughing from people saying they are "waiting for 'better games' ". That's NOT gonna happen. All Kinect games will be the same: jump and kick big balls. If is that what you want, just 3 more days. ********************************************************** You must believe the same thing for the MOVE then, if that's the case. Microsoft already said the Kinect will have games in every genre which includes RPG, FPS, Puzzle, Party, Music, Fighting, Action/Adv, Platform, Shooter-Rail, Sports, Driving etc..If you think none of these games are going to be good, your nuts. You're just being shallow or a complete fanboy. The MOVE only have a couple games that are good right now. Most of the games are crap, but Sports Champions is decent and Sorcercer didn't look bad. Everyone is going to have to wait for better games. Everyone had to wait for better games on the PS3. Took almost 2 years just to get a 'AAA' game. Waiting shouldn't be a problem. I'll get the MOVE next year, when better games are released.

ClaudiusCaesar
ClaudiusCaesar

@XanderZane @sleepnsurf Don't get me wrong, I'm laughing from people saying they are "waiting for 'better games' ". That's NOT gonna happen. All Kinect games will be the same: jump and kick big balls. If is that what you want, just 3 more days.

XanderZane
XanderZane

@ClaudiusCaesar said: @XanderZane I didn't mean right now. I meant Kinect will NEVER have a good game (for me), ALL games for Kinect will be for jumping or kick a big ball, nothing precise (Tigerwood is already on Move and will NEVER be on Kinect). Hey, but, if you are a preteen, that will be fun. Go for it!!!. I'm sure millions of little kids will be happy with Kinect. ******************************************************* Preteen? lol!! I'm a man with a wife and daughter. Kinect will be fun for the whole family (like the Wii), not just kids. If you're hardcore and don't like those type of games, that's your problem. I don't mind jumping around in front of the T.V. or swing my arms and legs. I need all the exercise I can get anyways. MOVE isn't going to be much different, as you will still be swings your arms around and moving your legs to play the games. Games like Killzone 3, Heavy Rain, etc.. that are being converted are not going to be great with MOVE. I don't think you can just tack on that option so quickly and expect the experience to be flawless.

sleepnsurf
sleepnsurf

@ClaudiusCaesar Stop trying to sell your crappy MOVE man. It is not working! I have played it and it is complete GARBAGE, you hear me, GARBAGE!!

DanteKilla
DanteKilla

The kinect looks good but it looks as if it would start to ache your arms after a while, for example the racing games you have to hold out your arms for the races. Also why pretend you have a steering wheel when you can actually get adaptable ones? Isn't that more believable than pretending you have one? But i dunno, i'd have to play one myself to be a true judge :) But tbf it looks alot better than move if you ask me, i've played move and thought it was terrible. "/

P0T
P0T

Some of the "core" Kinect games look pretty sick. Just like the Move, once developers get used to the Move and Kinect, the really great games will come out.

Knutte79
Knutte79

[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]

chuckaroo27
chuckaroo27

Most kinect-haters fail to realize it goes far beyond its games. Does any1 else not realize this is the next big step in gaming! the video chat, voice commands, motion controlled dashboard and menus. i honestly didnt expect some huge game from kinect in the beginning (its probably a lil buggy and still needs fixes,patches,etc). The games tht r coming out now r more like a test of kinects basic gaming functions. imm sure there will be more games to come with various types of gamers in mind.

raghraghragh
raghraghragh

Does anybody think there will ever be a good game on Kinect? I'm not being a troll. I'm not even a fanboy. I just don't see how you could create an actual 'game' on Kinect. I'd get sick of standing up and jumping around VERY quickly, and I think most people would be the same. So how can any developer create a deep gaming experience with it? I don't want to drive using an invisible steering wheel, shoot an invisble gun or swing an invisible sword either. It's dumb.

PewPewNinja
PewPewNinja

@ClaudiusCaesar oh yeah PS Move is so "hardcore" im sure that you will have alots of fun with that "Hardcore" thing that is the PS Move, like all those 40 years old guys that will buy it..right..Damn those real gamer will sure have alots of fun with their wii oh snap no..Ps Move.. I'm sure millions of old dudes will be happy with the Ps Move. (Damn a golf game SO Hardcore)

djtim_3000
djtim_3000

@Io_ACE_oI What? Are you serious? All I said was that the technology didn't exist four years ago for Nintendo to deliver precision movement control - which it didn't. And FYI the NES resolution was 256x240, the Wii has 852x480. School or be schooled? wtf - loser, its not all about graphics, everyone older than 10 knows this by now.

inferno394
inferno394

About as exciting as watching water boil in a pot.

ClaudiusCaesar
ClaudiusCaesar

@XanderZane I didn't mean right now. I meant Kinect will NEVER have a good game, ALL games for Kinect will be for jumping or kick a big ball, nothing precise (Tigerwood is already on Move and will NEVER be on Kinect). Hey, but, if you are a preteen, that will be fun. Go for it!!!. I'm sure millions of little kids will be happy with Kinect.

madSomnambulist
madSomnambulist

I find it sad that even in the middle of boasting/"commenting" on the estimated sales figures that at no point in the article does it mention if anyone thought the thing was FUN OR NOT. It's certainly not compared to a Move or Wii "fun" score. Not only if it was fun, but would they consider it a good value? That's what actually sells. The study seems little more than a pre-release blind taste test that Microsoft wants to turn into a popularity contest. Let's just cover the obvious conclusion after the holidays: Each will sell "well", over 1 million units certainly, each company will pick and choose numbers that look to be in their favor, and NEITHER of them will have stopped for a minute to think about if people actually liked it or not. Get them both to price a full kit for $50 and we'll have a fair popularity contest, perhaps.

Dominicobaggio
Dominicobaggio

It will sell like hotcakes for sure. I still dont get though how everyone thinks its unique... Eye toy? Hope it does well for xboxers though!

Son_Jazrin
Son_Jazrin

We'll see. I wonder if the study was conducted by the same group that said that FF14 would trounce WOW.

warcraftfan234
warcraftfan234

This is what the first day of getting a Kinect will be like: Person: Xbox, Play Game. (does nothing) Person: XBOX, Play GAME. (does nothing) Person: XBOX, PLAY GAME. (dashboard loads up ESPN) Person: GAHHHH!!

XanderZane
XanderZane

@ClaudiusCaesar If that's true: poor millions of Kinect buyers, they will be stuck with crap games. LOL *********************************************************** About the same as the MOVE games. Each system only has a couple of games worth owning really until better quality games come out.

digi-demon
digi-demon

Motion plus (ELF) needs games (FOOD) badly :D

ClaudiusCaesar
ClaudiusCaesar

If that's true: poor millions of Kinect buyers, they will be stuck with crap games. LOL

mr_squibble
mr_squibble

Poop in a can probably wouldn't score very high on uniqueness unless you eat some stuff that's too funky for yourself.

digi-demon
digi-demon

I'll be waving my arms around.... but in anger at the lack of decent core games on all systems this christmas period...

Io_ACE_oI
Io_ACE_oI

@djtim_3000 & raichou It may have taken Sony four years to copy the Wii and MS four years to create "social" based games but Nintendo has yet to create a game that has a better resolution than say the NES. MS has at least created something original, it may not be my thing to jump around in my video room but niether is taking a step back into the 80s and POS graphics. Maybe when you grow up and move out of mommy and daddy's house you will get what everyone else is saying. Until then, stay in school or be schooled.

buying1999
buying1999

Kinect is an origional idea. Something that Sony wouldn't know anything about. I mean look psn, trophies, and now the PS3HDWii pink ball wavey around Wii copy thingy. Kinect will dominate.

samuelcolbourne
samuelcolbourne

I pretty much forget the controller is even there when I'm playing a well made game that I can get into. The last thing I want to do is jump around like a jerk in my living room. Still hope it does well though I guess.

XanderZane
XanderZane

@kbaily Remember how well mid life console add ons worked for Sega? *********************************************************** Microsoft isn't SEGA though. All three companies have made bad add-ons or systems with problems in the past. Sega's 32X and Sega CD was just bad and not supported well. Nintendo's Virtual Boy was a disaster. Sony' EyeToy wasn't great and didn't get marketed well at all. M$ 360 had RROD on more then 30% of their systems. We'll see if Microsoft gets it right or not this time. Most people I've talked to who has had hands on with it, says it works great.

im-a-roustabout
im-a-roustabout

Could it be more successful than the Move? Possibly. Are there still crap games coming out for it which means I won't be getting it? All signs point to yes! What's weird though is I would have believed that the Move would work more so than the Kinect since it's newer tech and since everytime I hear Kinect being reviewed they said it didn't work exactly how you'd like it to.

Ansem_Rev
Ansem_Rev

XBOX iZ Da Best! ReckignizE!!!!

Hvac0120
Hvac0120

If I spend $500 million on advertising a device, it damn well better sell and be deemed a "hit." If people are constantly talking about the device it will sell. Advertising makes people talk about the device. I could sell poop in a can if I spend enough money on advertising. That's Microsoft's main strength with Kinect. The games aren't looking too interesting even for a broader appeal and the price is ridiculous for what you get.

kbaily
kbaily

Remember how well mid life console add ons worked for Sega?

kbaily
kbaily

Yeah because the Move did SO well here in the US and Japan. MS's marketing is trying anything to keep Kinect from being a massive failure putting out unrealistic price charts and getting journalists to write positive pieces on it but core 360 gamers want nothing to do with games that are just HD versions of Wii games and the casual crowd who likes motion controlled party games already bought a Wii. Sure they SAID they were making some core games but we've seen no gameplay footages or trailers plus originally they were saying it wasn't intended for the Core. Make up your mind MS and figure out which audience you want to appeal to.

HaloOverrated
HaloOverrated

@djtim_3000 Well, if that's the case, then why couldn't they just wait until the technology DID exist, like Sony & Microsoft did? And if they had to release the Wii when they did, then why did they charge $40 for the Wiimote? That was such a bad idea. They basically charged $20 extra because the controller had some form of motion control, regardless of whether it was accurate or not. That would be like charging $70 for a PS3 controller simply because it has Six-Axis.

jhpeter
jhpeter

I mad the fact Microsoft downgraded Kinect, its a shame, I will wait for the "Wii motion plus" of Kinect, if will be released one day.

raichou
raichou

@djtim_3000 I couldn't agree more.