Kinect to sell 4 million in Q4 2010 - Analyst

Lazard's Colin Sebastian believes massive marketing campaign and Xbox 360 bundle emphasis will lead to a big debut for Microsoft's motion-sensing system.

All the way back when Kinect was called Project Natal, Microsoft was saying it would promote the motion-sensing system's launch as though it were a new console. However, initial reports in the media were skeptical, with industry-research firm DFC intelligence saying its impact on the console race would be "negligible." A British retailer went one step further, saying preorders for the controller-free, camera-based peripheral were "very low."

Analyst Colin Sebastian believes 4 million people will Kinect worldwide before year's end.

Today, though, a major game analyst came out with some bullish comments about Kinect. Citing a massive ad campaign by Microsoft that will target the casual audience so successfully exploited by Nintendo's Wii, Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian believes the Xbox 360 add-on will go quadruple platinum by year's end.

"Our checks indicate that the Kinect build is on a pace of ~2M units per month, and we now believe that the mix of Xbox 360 shipments for the holidays will be more heavily weighted toward the Kinect bundle," he said in a note this morning. "As such, we are increasing our Kinect unit sales expectations for Q4 to 4 million worldwide, up from 3 million units previously."

Sebastian went on to say that Kinect is a tad pricey and won't really begin to sell until its cost is lowered. "While launching at $149 as a stand-alone device, we believe the better value is the Xbox 360 bundle for $299. We continue to believe that $99 would be a 'sweet spot' for Kinect, and production quantities suggest that Microsoft may be leaving open the possibility for price promotions on Kinect next year."

Written By

Want the latest news about Kinect Joy Ride?

Kinect Joy Ride

Kinect Joy Ride

Follow

Discussion

114 comments
ffviiifreak
ffviiifreak

If I have the money I'll get one but I am not really planning on it because why get Kinect which will suck for whats likely a year instead of getting more games or a PS3 to fill out my collection.

ffviiifreak
ffviiifreak

It could sell 4 million this fall but then the sells will go as cold as Ice because I believe that they are willing to sacrifice our love...lol.

robertcain
robertcain

No one will buy this cos you have 2 pay upwards of £370 over here to get the most out of it, I'd say less than 1 million units in 6 month

seriousplayer_d
seriousplayer_d

4M? No way I believe that. In the near future (I think), 3D gaming will sell. And X360 is NOT capable to do that, not without a blu-ray installed in his console

kusanagi_san
kusanagi_san

4 million? Maybe it's an objectively optimistic forecast if for some reason US Army and fitness clubs decide to preorder this device. But I'd really be surprised if M$ succeeds to sell half a million stand-alone Kinects by the end of this year. And given its relatively high price tag for an improved Eyetoy (sorry M$ but it looks a lot like this), I think this analyst is a part of that "massive ad campaign" he cites above, being a major analyst paid in good old M$ currency.

mr_squibble
mr_squibble

I love my XBOX 360, but I can easily say with 100% certainty that I will not be one of those four million.

zMd113
zMd113

4 mil? Yeah right, maybe 1.5 mil at years end. Stupid analyst.

mpeg3s
mpeg3s

The only way this would happend if MS produces many new games featuring this device in the Japan. They could sell 4 million units there, as the XBOX never sold even a million. It could be in the form of a Japan bundle. It won't happen, as MS is a failure in investing in software content.

leeko_link
leeko_link

Unless there are more motion gaming idiots buying the thing when it launch, I don't see those sale numbers happening.

Inconnux
Inconnux

I'm not sure who their market is supposed to be. Those who want motion control already have a Wii. A Wii also is much cheaper... I see this working on the next gen console, but it will not sell well for this generation against the Wii.

steelmouth
steelmouth

i predict that x360 is going to sell more units after the realease of Kinect than it have already sold, yes kinect is going to be big way bigger than video games

blasterchief
blasterchief

While the control of the 360 interface is really cool, I refuse to purchase Kinect until there are enough AAA games on there which I would play. As of now, there are none.

joeborg14
joeborg14

I have mixed reactions (still) about this move. Of course from a hardcore gamer's perspective, this will undeniably be crap, the same crap that made the Wii so successful. We all know it, and Microsoft certainly isn't foolish enough to deny it. But to nearly everyone who commented on this article: I hate to say it because it applies to me too, but in this case, Microsoft doesn't give a flying flip about any of our opinions. We're not who it's marketing to this time around. So it's pretty bittersweet for me. I want to see the Kinect cater to the hardcore, but we're just not what it was made for, and it will all come down to how the "Wii crowd" takes it (or leaves it).

AssassinJul95
AssassinJul95

Boring Kinect launch titles [except for Dance Central, which looked decent]...crazy analysts...over-priced hardware...ain't life in Microsoft land grand?

COPMAN221
COPMAN221

brendanhunt1 I have the move already and of the 9 demos I played none used the nav controls. Kinnect + game = $200.00 Way over the limit.

ebookerd1
ebookerd1

@mightEone You have a good point that I didn't even think of. If only 10 percent purchased it that would be 1.5 million. even if they don't hit their mark that will be a million sold. I want the media features but games sell an addon. No one wants a 32x repeat..... I don't want to sound like a fan boy but, Wii did started out with only one game at $300 price point. also PS3... well I have no clue what the launch game was but it is doing great now. I think it was the fact that it played Blu-rays actually. Sorry if you were offended they were a packaged at BBY with Sony TV's for free. Just fact not hating!! I wish I could have taken advantage for that deal personally.... :/

MOwens9512
MOwens9512

I probably would have been skeptical about the numbers they're throwing out if I didn't think that there would be enough XBox enthusiasts who would buy this. I actually work with a lot of XBox360 owners, a few who are extremist even. One guy in particular is the type that you'd have thought never would have bought into the Kinect at launch: hardcore, first person shooter fanatic who lives for deathmatching. Ever since E3 however, he insists that the Kinect is the most revolutionary piece of hardware ever created and will be buying it the first day. To top all of that off, this shoot em up fanatic can't wait to purchase Kinectimals to go along with it LOL. Now I could never get a rationalized answer from him as to why he felt so (and quite honestly I wasn't trying to ask because I don't argue with fanatics, they scare me LOL) but I think there are a lot of people like him, who are wiling to buy it off of its potential (if they can get it to work flawless with FPS and third-person action games, watch out) and brand loyalty. There are some cool features to the device and if they are able to get just a small piece of the XBox360 loyalists and/or fanatics to go in on it with the casual gaming market, 4 million could happen during the holiday season.

Solid_Monkey
Solid_Monkey

It could sell 4 million. I just wish Kincet would support more hardcore titles. Only game I see that intrest me in getting a Kinect is Child of Eden. I'll personally just wait until I see more titles that impress me.

ebookerd1
ebookerd1

if they lower the game prices they might hit half or at least a quater. anyother way would not be possible. besides I might get one but the games are killing me where the hell are they? Show me something... That starwars game had me hooked and Kinectimals... well I think my daughter might like it. She will be 3 by then.

cuchikapoor
cuchikapoor

So here's the deal . I spend 300$ on a XBOX 360 elite, 150 $ for Kinnect , 50 $ on a game and what do I get , block punching in "Your Shape: Fitness Evolved". No offence dudes Kinectimals,Forza Motorsport 4 and Star Wars Kinnect are brilliant.

brendanhunt1
brendanhunt1

@monson21502 Im not sure how much it will cost in total in the states but here in europe- 2 move controls 2 nav controls 1 camera 1 game Total= €167 1 kinect 1 game Total= €159 Not much difference unless you factor the cost that an xbox is cheaper than a ps3 or that move games are cheaper than kinect ones

cajunstrike
cajunstrike

Agreed. With a $150 price point, which does not include the cost of the Kinect-specific games, selling four million Kinect units in a single quarter, holiday season or not, is quite a tall order.

Hvac0120
Hvac0120

[quote="Colin Sebastian"]...Microsoft may be leaving open the possibility for price promotions on Kinect next year...[/quote] No duh. That's more likely when I'll purchasing Kinect.

SecularSage
SecularSage

This analyst is nuts. What is he basing his predictions on? What video game peripheral for $150 has EVER sold a million, let alone 4 million, units at Christmas? Even Guitar Hero, when it first launched, failed to sell a million copies initially. It went on to sell 1.5 million total, but only after Guitar Hero II caught on. Guitar Hero III sold 3.5 million copies. All of these games were cheaper and had a broader casual appeal than Kinect. Seeing as Microsoft just spent a fortune on the dead-on-arrival Kin, I think any analyst who's optimistic about the Kinnect is living in a fantasy world.

oKiRe
oKiRe

MS is all jokes.

COPMAN221
COPMAN221

monson21502 Let me educate you on the move since I already have it. first off the controllers plug into the PS3 and charge with the cable that comes with your PS3. Second I have played 9 demos for the Move and they all required one Move stick, 2 if you are playing with another person. Third why would anyone pay $150,00 for a obvious rip off eye toy camers when they can easily buy the real thing for $30,00.. With that being said don't you have to buy a play and chage kit for the 360 right out of the box? Your logic disturbs me..

COPMAN221
COPMAN221

My fellow gamers all this has been done already on Playstation 2 and 3 eye toy camers. I have NOT seen one thing that the over priced Kinect can do that hasn't already been done on the eye toy. I would like to know who the alleged 4,000,000 buying fools are so I can laugh at them. No self respecting hardcore gamer will waste their time or money with this..

COPMAN221
COPMAN221

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

monson21502
monson21502

@brendanhunt1, what games did nintendo have in late 2006 and 2007? almost no good games, hell even now its only 2-3 good games a year... and the wii sold over 500 k systems every month easy. kinect isnt ps move thats getting almost no hype or press anywhere. move is labled a wii copycat. thats all. kinect is a new fresh idea to motion controls that has alot of buzz all over the internet... by the way. move costs more then kinect. maybe alot more if you count the gas money people are going to waste by thinking all they wil need is the 100 dollar starter bundle. when they get home and see that they need on some games they need 2 move controllers and some they need 1 move and 1 sub controller. very few will need just one move controller. and thats just for one player so be ready for another trip to buy even more controllers and while your out dont forget to buy a charge stations for your move conrtollers :P

monson21502
monson21502

@raahsnavj, i bet you didnt think the wii would sell 30 million in the usa alone in 4 years either.... its not that far out there to think that kinect could sell very well..

monson21502
monson21502

you know how you know ms is hated for no reason? first they are bashed as a fps only console.now they are getting bashed because kinect dont have any fps for it:lol: ms was the smart one here. make something that is a blast to play with motion controls and keep the wacky waggle controls out of your core games. maybe add some voice comands and some in game menu options to rpgs or what ever and thats all you really need.

vetookie
vetookie

Although I really want to love it, there's no way I'll be getting it on launch. Not a single game interests me so far (except Dance Central-which looks ok).... It's a really weak list of Launch games, seriously: Yoostar 2 and the Biggest Loser?

raahsnavj
raahsnavj

4M worldwide? Are we talking shipped or sold? I don't think the thing will sell 4M over its life. Or are you including the console bundles as part of the 4M?

DanteDelacoix
DanteDelacoix

thatll be 4 million unhappy customers then. Neither do I see 4 mil hardcore xbox fans buying it, nor do I see 4 mil cassi gamers going out and buying an xbox to use this. Try again lol

brendanhunt1
brendanhunt1

There gona have to show more games if they want to sell that much

pbutt77
pbutt77

I would love full body recognition in a firstperson shooter, as long as they use it sparingly and allow me to get back to my controller for most of the gameplay! It would just be a weapon switch!

pbutt77
pbutt77

Well, when they get rid of Flatscreen TV's and have surround view...kinect will have the super heads-up on the territory. So you could say that its future proof as far as investment is concerned. But "what can they do with it on flatscreens now?" you ask! (especialy in first person shooters) Don't be silly we are talking about full body recognition here my friend. Well lets think about a few subtle ideas. Remember in call of duty MW when you had that sniper sceen? Well picture yourself putting your controller down an picking up your air rifle aiming at multiple targets, but not only do you have to aim your hands at the screen, but you have to use your thumbs to line them up for accuracy and coil back to fire(or you could just use a bazooka). Maybe you don't like call of duty(yea right). How about giving your bravo team hand signals and designation points to move on in rainbowsix. How about driving a ferrari and being able to look around the cockpit just by moving ahead, and then changing the volume or track of the song playing on your cars stereo system. The ingame customization and interaction this would allow you is limitless. The use of the bodycontrol can be used sparingly thruout a game to increase intensity and drama. Some of these ideas might sound and look ridiculous in action but the immersiveness this would add to all your games is increased phenominally. The only thing to speculate is wether they are going to be creative and tap into its potential.

Deano
Deano

i'll probably buy. though I don't have any friends, will have to play by myself :(

King-gamer
King-gamer

4 Million??? Doubtful. It definitely sell, but 4 million seems to be overestimating it. Or maybe Kinect will prove us wrong like the Wii did and sell millions too? I'm still doubtful, but I can't exactly say whether it will be a total success or a flop, for now.

crystos
crystos

nobody cares if "hardcore gamers" buy this. It clearly is not catering to the "hardcore" so stop complaining

badtaker
badtaker

if that happen SW will explodes :P

shkar
shkar

I wonder how the expression on the face will be when the XBOX360 gets RROD in the middle of a KINECT game ,,,,duh !!!

NoDzombie
NoDzombie

there are a lot of big games coming out the end of this year, i would much rather save my money and get more of them, than buy kinect

grasshopper6
grasshopper6

lot of people will be disappointed when their 360 shuts down cause of being played for long time from people trying out kinect

ele975
ele975

But how many will that be in the hardcore gamer sales department?

Deathropracter
Deathropracter

kinect will sell well for a month or two and then dye out cause its a gimick and to damn too much $ plus with all the big games coming out in sep nov and oct .

langrisser2005
langrisser2005

4 million? No Dice. Sure it's cool about the wireless motion sensing but right now it's still in a Beta stage showing some basic stuff but it hasn't done anything to blow to us away. Right now it's like a early nintendo wii phase and they want to charge extra on top of the console? They really need to show it off more giving something basically worth buying 2 wii's for the service. Personally I think some hardcore retail titles using it would be one idea, and not cheaply used either.

DCUltrapro
DCUltrapro

heres hoping... your right though peeps... the games are lacking that something special. for all the Kinects bells and whistles its not being used to its full potential. lets hope they come up with some amazing stuff. And mind you, I won't pass full judgement until I see the games in action