Kinect outselling Move - Analyst

Wedbush's Michael Pachter believes that Microsoft's motion-sensing system has overtaken Sony's; two platforms expected to have 8-million-unit installed base by year's end.

This week began with Microsoft announcing that the Kinect has sold 2.5 million units worldwide in 25 days. Sony quickly followed suit by saying that 4.1 million PlayStation Move controllers had shipped--not sold--worldwide.

Pachter believes that the Kinect has overtaken the Move in year-to-date sales.

Now, Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter has weighed in on the matter. "Interestingly, the higher priced Kinect controller appears to have overtaken the Move controller in the sales race, with sales about even notwithstanding Move's six-week head start in the marketplace," he said in his latest investor note. The Move starter pack retails for $100, while Kinect rings up at $150 in the US.

By year's end, Pachter thinks that the Kinect and Move combined installed base will be 8 million units. He also gave his vision of how the two companies' motion-control battle might play out in the near future. He thinks that Microsoft intends to drop the price of the 4GB Xbox 360 Kinect bundle from $300 to $250 in the spring. He believes Sony will then respond with a $300 PS3 Move bundle--the same price the console costs by itself right now.

If the aforementioned price drops occur, Pachter estimates the two devices' combined installed base could reach 20 million to 25 million by the end of 2011, resulting in 40 million to 75 million units of software sales. He predicts Move and Kinect hardware and software sales will total $500 million to $800 million in 2011, or around 2.5 to 4 percent of industry sales.

Pachter also mentioned that he believes the Move system--including the EyeToy camera and controller--costs an estimated $40 to make. A recent tech-analysis firm report pegged the manufacturing costs of the Kinect at $56 per unit, way down from the $30,000 the original prototype reportedly cost.

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Discussion

625 comments
torbjorno
torbjorno

@JusticeFromSeed If you truly work in retail you should know that the Nav controller isn't required. You can use a Dualshock to hold in your left hand. Unless you often play with friends, the starting costs are cheaper than Kinect. Worst case scenario; two players both using nav controller (not required again as you can stick with the DS3) and move controller + 1 game the Move is more expensive. The move supports 4 players while Kinect supports 2 players at the same time. There are positives and negatives to both control systems. I like accuracy and holding something with buttons. The Kinect isn't for me. But maybe you'll keep trying to sell the Kinect to your customers as a better value rather than the move because of your point of view but it's not really a balanced one.

COPMAN221
COPMAN221

IceJester45 I never called you a fanboy and I agree with your post 100%.At the end of the day, to each is own. It just seems like the one system owners here who can't appreciate a game no matter what system it's on will find anything they can to call all multisystem owners fanboys.. Like I stated before, I don't care for the Kinect but i do care for my 360 and PS3. Game on Gamers..

IceJester45
IceJester45

@COPMAN221, First, I am not a monson21502-style fanboy. I have a PS3, and I like it very much. In fact, all the games I plan to buy in January--SOCOM 4, LBP2, and Dead Space 2--are on PS3. Second, I'm not "against" the Move or anything. I just haven't seen anything that makes me want one right now. Sports Champions, Tumble, and Echochrome come close to sealing the deal. I'm always tempted when to plop down the cash for a Move when I go into a game retailer. However, without more from-the-ground-up games like Kinect's Dance Central, Project Draco, and Haunt, I'm not sold. I don't really care about playing first-person shooters and RPGs with motion controls. I've been doing that for years on the Wii, I don't necessarily prefer the wand controls to a standard controller (I will take a mouse and keyboard, though. Thank you very much.). Therefore, the patched stuff, while certainly not bad, is not enough on its own for me. Please don't take what I say personally. I'm just stating my point of view. I think both products are cool, and I don't blame anyone for liking the Move more.

emperordanger
emperordanger

kinnect is good for playing kids games, like kinnectimals, adventures etc..

COPMAN221
COPMAN221

@ mrzero1982pt2, monson21502, and IceJester45 First off I am no Sony plant or fanboy like monson has proven himself to be countless times here. Second, maybe that dance came IS something special but that about it. Lets compare the fighting game that is on both systems. The move Light Out blows that Kinect fighting game out of the water.. and 3rd the move is compatible with most ps3 first person shooters. MS already said you would need the control and the kinect to play FPS which kinda defeats the purpose don't you think? Than you.. Move along now..

Serious
Serious

We all know that casual gamers love to dance and jump about. but they grow tired of the novelty and don't purchase later titles. I don't own a move yet but when Killzone 3, Socom 4 and Sorcery and other AAA Move titles start to hit the shelves I expect the move to sell. You can't judge by launch titles. Many said that the PS3 was going to fail cause Xbox and Wii were outselling it. but its still here and doing better than ever. Trust me.

suprsolider
suprsolider

Also the PS3 is better than the Xbox 360. - FACT

DLobotomist
DLobotomist

I don't want either in my house yet... I dont wanna break my $3000 3d tv I just got two months ago... I'm staying safe and use my regular controllers for now... until there are better games fro it then I might reconsider... so far Dance Central is the only good one IMO... so I'm not rushing to buy either peripheral yet...

jmalo1
jmalo1

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Auction_Sniper
Auction_Sniper

As an owner of both consoles, I'll be happy to avoid buying either - heaven help us if we have to be jumping, strafing and in front of the tv to play a good old fashioned shooter.

AceCometh
AceCometh

Won't buy either. I just have to have that controller in my hands! It's an emotional attachment.

iluminat23
iluminat23

[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]

rolla020980
rolla020980

karmasbeeoch Where have you personally experienced lag with Kinect? I have had one since launch and have never experienced lag. As far as Kinect being expensive, how much does Move cost for 4 players? As far as I am concerned, they are both expensive. The only issue I have experienced with my Kinect so far is room size. You do need a fairly large room to use it.

KuRf
KuRf

Both will make holes on my second level floor if I use it.

Vengeful_Angel
Vengeful_Angel

Fanboys need to chillax. Your speculation as to what will outsell the competition means nothing. The figures calculated on what actually sells is what matters. Get real if you earnestly believe the 360 can surprass the competition until the next generation; that's insulting to Sony and Nintendo.

k1ll8_saurav
k1ll8_saurav

[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]

NND1
NND1

I am not surprised I own all 3 systems w/ move and Kinect... Kinect Rocks... I sold my move and Ps3, I just don't play that system more than my box and I just can't stand the ps3 controller compared to the box.... And exclusives aside, the games are pretty much the same graphically...

AirBizkit89
AirBizkit89

i think move will be better for shooters and kinect for fighters and 70ish percent of gamers i see got a potato chip stuck to their ass when they get up those people i don't see wanting any of these. atleast kinect doesnt have to compete cuz how can it? ppl make it about 360 n ps3 when it should be wii vs ps3 unless your talking about regular controller games then ps3 vs 360 would make sense. fan boys are losers and they act like if they powder ms or sony sack they get gifts from them.

HarDcore_RpG
HarDcore_RpG

I find both the 360 and PS3 fanboys completely ridiculous with their "This generation belongs to xbox, hands down" and "ps3 failed in every thing" stupid comments. The only facts in the above article are, "Kinect has sold 2.5 million units worldwide in 25 days.4.1 million PlayStation Move controllers had shipped--not sold--worldwide." All the analyst says is I believe this and I believe that, what the hell does he know, consumer spending habits change so frequently you cant know which will out sell the other until it happens. And all you fanboys crying over your console need to relax and enjoy whichever one you have for whatever reason.

buying1999
buying1999

@shahabgb You're absolutely right!!!!! If you want to play games then get a 360. If you want to pay for an overpriced blu ray player then buy a PS3HDWii. This generation belongs to xbox, hands down.

shahabgb
shahabgb

[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]

Vengeful_Angel
Vengeful_Angel

Honestly, I wasn't expecting either one to get too far of the other; they're both pieces of garbage.

coylenintendo
coylenintendo

blahh enough with the motion sensing gaming already. I really wish they would have just left that to the Wii. it was nice going to the Wii for motion sensing games and then going back to Xbox 360 for regular games with a wireless controller. who cares how much they have sold? like other people said, I don't know anyone that has one.

Krystyan68
Krystyan68

Kinects have sold out everywhere in my area, but you can still pick up a Move bundle, so it must be doing alright.

wwlettsome
wwlettsome

In a month Pachter will find some reason to announce the sales ending apocalypse of gaming due to his inability to actually review and analyze information.

mrzero1982pt2
mrzero1982pt2

@COPMAN221 as an xbox owner, and a fan of the move, i seriously A think you are paid by sony, or B, a sony plant because you have seriously been on a sony slant since you "won" a playstation move. dance central could never be on the wii or ps3 (well possibly ps3 if they got rid of the move controllers) because dance central wants you to use YOUR ENTIRE BODY! i played just dance, i got a perfect simply by moving my arm. dude, you need to come off your sony love, and just see things in a balanced way because you are really annoying now.

mrzero1982pt2
mrzero1982pt2

i am sick of patcher, if you want to know the truth about move or kinect, get up and go to your local gamestop, wal mart, heck any retail store. the kinect is always sold out, while the move has a few on shelves. not saying it because i own an xbox(i have no reason to buy a kinect, it seems fun, so does the move) but the thing is microsoft wants a cut of the wii market. many parents are in their 20s, and if some had the kids as teenagers, those kids are in the double digits now, or nearing them, so its a good way to keep the gaming within the family. the wii has GREAT games, but bad marketing. the move is out there but suffering from the year 1 playstation mistake of "we are playstation, you will buy it because of the name" no. microsoft was just smart with this. but 8 million? i hope he means worldwide.

MrHatnClogs
MrHatnClogs

Who wants to bet how long it will be till everyone gets tired of Kinect or Move and the sales start to drop like Nintendo's did?

godzillavskong
godzillavskong

@lazycomplife Just like( 4.1 million PlayStation Move controllers shipped worldwide) on a earlier news topic was a part of Sony's advertising campaign?

lazycomplife
lazycomplife

Is this article part of the $500 million advertising campaign?

xpudy
xpudy

BORING...BORING

mrhagane
mrhagane

i don't like to buy any of this new motion sensing system, you see most of motion games are casual gamer for. So, this motion system soon will destroy the hardcore game, you see i hate sport, racing, dancing or some game that casual game for play, i just don't see something value on it. You see, what are they play for? they just play for fun, they don't know what is "game" for, they don't care about story, the don't read any important words that attach in the game, they just "play" but not "gaming". What are they doing in game was "endlessly" finding fun in game, anyway what so fun with endless fun that's no ending. Playing game such like rpg, action, fps are a true "game" that hardcore gamer for, they have great story, beautiful graphic, great ost, and great gameplay, and they have "ending" that make people feel have value for playing game. wow, hardcore game was so great, it's just like "magically" make people feel inside of it.

IceJester45
IceJester45

@Fred5107, "Shipped" refers to the number of units purchased by retailers, but it doesn't necessarily reflect the number of units sold to consumers. "Sold" refers to the number of units purchased by consumers. Sold numbers are difficult to check because the NPD no longer provides weekly independent tracking of them. Bear that in mind when Microsoft says it sold X number of something.

wookie560
wookie560

@SociopathicBox Oh they are selling alright, this is coming from a retailer.Move sold out day one. Kinect has more interest and sales at the moment. This article is accurate.

Fred5107
Fred5107

What is the difference between "getting shipped" and "sold worldwide?"

godzillavskong
godzillavskong

@karmasbeeoch I haven't noticed any lag. Not many games are out yet I'll give you that , but I haven't experienced any lag, and the price is comparable to Move, especially if you already have a 360.

SociopathicBox
SociopathicBox

I seriously dont believe that any of these are selling, I dont know a single person that has either.

IceJester45
IceJester45

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

karmasbeeoch
karmasbeeoch

Why are all the fanboys on here writing small books on here? Kinect is expensive, has noticeable lag, and doesnt have a handful of games worth the price of admission.

Ex-DarkBlade
Ex-DarkBlade

What's the point of this article? Gamespot loves to see fanboy war, don't they.

godzillavskong
godzillavskong

@x-2tha-z Well put. I still have my HDDVD player and about 60 movies. I purchased it when HDDVD was at it's demise for only 50, and it came with 4 movies, so I figured it was worth it for the 4 movies alone. I've since then moved on to Bluray, but I slowly build my HDDVD collection up due to the very cheap price of the HDDVD movies. Heck, you can buy some for only 2.00 on certain sites! As far as the failure of HDDVD, I believe the division of the movie companies, and the price of both Bluray, and HDDVD, caused consumers to wait to see which prevails. Some say that Microsoft should've incorporated the HDDVD drive in the 360, then it would've gave it a better chance of succeeding,but that would've also raised the price of the 360, therefore it might not have sold as well. A lot of people were on the fence about getting the PS3 at launch, simply because of the price, so I don't think it would've been any different if Microsoft decided to go the same route. You're right about the risk reward factor, with Sony, and it's Move, or PSP. They are %100 vested, and own the whole risk. Microsoft on the other hand, didn't really have to worry about the success of HDDVD, since they wouldn't be as impacted, although I would've liked them to incorporate it somehow, therefore giving us 360 owners a bigger storage format to use, instead of hampering some developers from what I've heard.

IceJester45
IceJester45

@noturfangirl, Have fun making stuff up? Dance Central does not lag. Your performance is skill-based. I have never had trouble with lag. I don't know anybody who has had trouble with lag. I have never read a review where the reviewer had a problem with lag. The performance is skill-based. I know this because when I play other people, the same small group of people keeps winning. If the game weren't skill based (if it were like Wii Sports, for instance), there would be no consistent winners. Still, if people want to divorce themselves from reality and pretend there is lag in Dance Central, I suppose I should just let them. This is growing tedious. Oh, and Kinect and Dance Central don't cost $300. Seriously, get your facts straight.

noturfangirl
noturfangirl

Yea, there is nothing like dance central. It got lag for days. Thats why they make the screen that show you dancing so small to try to hide it. It has lag like a mother. Regardless of what your moves are, it doesn't effect your points. You will have more fun turning your own music on, and dancing in front a mirror. Save yourself $300+ too.

Claytonicus
Claytonicus

Articles likes this only seem to propagate ignorance and dissention between gamers of different consoles. The technology for movement based controllers is completely new to both the playstation and the xbox, and you would have to be a complete idiot to call in favour of either console at the moment based on the range of games that developers have released to date. Hardware will never sell to the extent that it should , until there is enough software to attract the interest of consumers (ie, 3D TV's vs normal TV's). The one and only reason that Microsoft's sales figures "may" be higher, is because of the huge amount of money that they pump into advertising. Look at Call of Duty Black Ops, for instance... if you take the game apart, and realistically assess all of its pros and cons, then you should logically come to the realization that it isn't really that good, and that Gamespot should NEVER have given it a 9, BUT it was clever marketing by the dev, which sold units. Give it several years of game development, and then let the story be told on movement tech. With that in mind, and having owned both a PS3 and XBOX, i move in favour of the PS3 move. At least with the move, I don't have to move my lounge and tables back so that i can play it at the "recommended" playing distance.

isshiah
isshiah

i like the idea but the shovelware doesn't interest me at present.

monson21502
monson21502

@COPMAN221, dance central cant be done on the wii or move, your shape fitness evolved, and even old milked to death games that was on the wii and ds like brain age will be all new with kinect.... even if kinect gets wii ports in the future. at least there will be something new besides hd graphics. something you wont get from move:wink:. plus ms has alot of devs working on core kinect only games. what does sony have that can only be done with move????? yeah thats right:P thats why sony went the easy way out and just copied the wii.

IceJester45
IceJester45

@COPMAN221, Dance Central. Nothing else like it.