This week began with Microsoft announcing that the Kinect has sold 2.5 million units worldwide in 25 days. Sony quickly followed suit by saying that 4.1 million PlayStation Move controllers had shipped--not sold--worldwide.
Now, Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter has weighed in on the matter. "Interestingly, the higher priced Kinect controller appears to have overtaken the Move controller in the sales race, with sales about even notwithstanding Move's six-week head start in the marketplace," he said in his latest investor note. The Move starter pack retails for $100, while Kinect rings up at $150 in the US.
By year's end, Pachter thinks that the Kinect and Move combined installed base will be 8 million units. He also gave his vision of how the two companies' motion-control battle might play out in the near future. He thinks that Microsoft intends to drop the price of the 4GB Xbox 360 Kinect bundle from $300 to $250 in the spring. He believes Sony will then respond with a $300 PS3 Move bundle--the same price the console costs by itself right now.
If the aforementioned price drops occur, Pachter estimates the two devices' combined installed base could reach 20 million to 25 million by the end of 2011, resulting in 40 million to 75 million units of software sales. He predicts Move and Kinect hardware and software sales will total $500 million to $800 million in 2011, or around 2.5 to 4 percent of industry sales.
Pachter also mentioned that he believes the Move system--including the EyeToy camera and controller--costs an estimated $40 to make. A recent tech-analysis firm report pegged the manufacturing costs of the Kinect at $56 per unit, way down from the $30,000 the original prototype reportedly cost.