The latest issue of Famitsu features comments from Japanese analysts regarding next-generation game consoles, many of which seem to echo predictions made by analysts from the US.
Daiwa Institute of Research senior analyst Eiji Maeda predicts the PlayStation 3 will be released in Japan between April and June, but the console will not have much of a third-party lineup until summer or fall. Credit Suisse First Boston analyst Jay Defibaugh (who's currently working in Credit Suisse's Tokyo branch) predicts a similar release period for the PS3, sometime between May and June.
While Sony still has its PS3 launch set for spring, the analysts predict that the console will come out a bit later since the console's games are behind in development. The PS3 is reportedly difficult to develop for, and while there are 71 developers currently working on 102 games, only eight titles have been announced for release in 2006, with just two slated for spring.
Daiwa's Maeda predicts the PS3 is likely to hold the top share in the next-generation console war, but he cites the lack of launch titles as one of the factors that may affect its sales in 2006. Maeda also says the PS3's Blu-ray drive isn't as strong a sales point as the PlayStation 2's DVD drive. Back in 2000, consumers were drawn to the PS2 because it was also a DVD player, eliminating the need to buy a then-expensive stand-alone player. Another point cited by Maeda is the system's price. Maeda predicts that the PS3 will be priced in the 40,000 yen range ($343) at the lowest, while Nintendo's Revolution will be 30,000 yen ($257) at its highest. He also believes that by the time the PS3 comes out, Microsoft will likely have dropped its price on the Xbox 360.
With regard to the Revolution, Famitsu turns to IT journalist Hiroshige Gotoh. Gotoh believes the Revolution has the possibility of succeeding in the next-generation game war because of its innovation and its unique controller. He explained that the console's uniqueness could still match up against machines with higher specs, much like the way the DS has been outselling the PSP.
So when will the Revolution come out? Nintendo president Satoru Iwata recently told Sankei Journal that his company will need to release the console by Thanksgiving in America to take advantage of the busy shopping season. However, Maeda predicts that the Revolution could come out in Japan as early as June. Maeda also said that the machine would still have a larger launch lineup than the PS3, even if it's released that soon.
Credit Suisse's Defibaugh commented that the Xbox 360's sales in Japan were predicted to be low, but its actual performance was even lower. He thinks that the Japanese market will be dominated by the PS3 if the Xbox 360 continues to see sluggish sales in the country.
Daiwa's Maeda says that Microsoft isn't out of the race yet; the company had released its console half a year before its competitors, which gives it an upper hand in mass production and cost cutting.
Defibaugh and Maeda both think the PlayStation 3 will have half of the market in the worldwide next-generation console war by the end of 2006, followed by the Xbox 360 at 30 percent, and the Revolution at 20 percent.
ROFFLE at all the morons claimign the Wii would never sell. What a wake-up call reality is two years later, huh?
LMAO Japan is the sole reaosn the GC had any success. I won't even consider a Nintendo product, and I don't know a sole who does or would. Nintendo doesn't do anything to get excited about anymore, and there franchises are dated. Nintendo doesn;t have a snowballs chance in hades of ever winning the console wars again..... ever !!!! I honestly don't know how any coul deven believe that for a moment. Nintendo doesn't have the clout or resources Sony has to design state of the art electronics. So unless everyone is all of sudden going to become bigtime Nintendo fans there is no reason to buy a revolution. the only reason to own a Revolution is for Nintendo franchises... which as mentioned above is just getting old an lame.
I think Revolution will sell more units than Sony or Microsoft...unless something bizzare happens (Gamecube 2 being the final design, for instance) most cows and lemmings will buy a Rev as a second console, and of course, sheep will eat it up. I vote PS3: 40%, Rev: 30%, Xbox360 30% worldwide. With Xbox 360 and PS3 competing for #1 in America and PS3 dominating Europe and Japan.
Those who can affort will get...
I think that the PS3 will actually be the let down. Not, enough concrete details, ? release dates. Of course Japan is going to back their boy, but, really. I'd rather have a REVO. As far as 50%, maybe, by like 2008 or 9. That is if the machine is what it says it is. With XBOX getting greater support, and being easier to develop for, plus possibilities of a price drop. I think its not gonna be quite the landslide they boast it will be.
As much as I'd like my favorite companies to win in next-gen war, I don't really give a crap anymore. If everyone else wants to buy the one console I don't want, then they can do that. I'll be having too much fun with my Revolution and Xbox 360 to care. SF
The way I see it, PS3 will be the obvious winner in Japan. NR will show a respectable 2nd, and 360 has absolutely no hope. In "everywhere else", once all the systems come out, I think PS3 will emerge the slight victor over 360, with NR in last. ps3/360/nr 45/40/30 is my final prediction... yes that's over 100% but mayhaps people will buy more than 1. In order for PS3 to win in the States, they just need a repeat performance of PS2, and they need to keep their system under $500. They have great 3rd party support... hopefully developing for it won't be an issue. More expensive than .5k and even I will consider getting a different system instead, probably NR. That's right, I'm going to get PS3 OMGFANBOYOMG111 Simply put, PS3 is going to have the games I want (!!!FF!!!, !!!Metal Gear!!!, maybe Time Crisis) Xbox360 will get ahead if the PS3 stumbles, either by coming out too late, being too expensive, or not getting enough games quickly. Of course, Microsoft needs to get their act together and make enough systems to meet demands. Hopefully they'll have more games than just a bunch of Halo's and GTA's... but that's what everyone who buys 360 is waiting for, anyway. Xbox is claiming to be pulling 3rd party support from Sony's camp... but I don't see it happening so much... they'll probably be getting the off and experimental titles (like FFXI... who cares about FFXI at this point, if they're not already playing on some other platform?) I predicted that 360 would go the way of Dreamcast... and though I'm very likely wrong, I'm just throwing that out there so I can say told-ya-so in an apocalypse scenario. Xbox needs games... I like DOA and Elder Scrolls, but I won't spend $500 to play them. NR will be a Revolution in hardware alright, but I can already predict their game lineup: Zelda a few Metroid Primes a 3d Mario game Mario Kart (which hasn't been good since SNES IMO) all the Mario sports titles, again... Mario everywhere more Mario another forgettable Star Fox Granted, some of these games will no doubt be good... but I'm tired of the same 3 characters over and over again. Gamecube had its share of awesome titles, and no doubt Revolution will have the same. I personally will refuse to buy NR if Nintendo refuses to make inovative games to go with their system. Everyone already relived N64 on Gamecube (with slightly better graphics) and there's no reason to do it again with another slight increase. I don't see the quirky controller carrying the system. Eyetoy and such didn't do much for PS2, and I love DS but very few games make good use of the stylus. /rant I have a feeling that NR has the potential to end up just like Gamecube, digging itself into niche audiences (kids, people who aren't tired of Mario yet). They'll always have the low price point... if they get their software act together and this new controller idea doesn't end up being forgettable, NR could break this race wide open. It is indeed the wild-card, as long as they don't rehash all over the place. Nintendo's got a virtual monopoly on the handheld market... I don't think that's an indication of NR's imminent success, but at least it means they won't end up like Sega just yet. Thats the gospel, according to igno at least ;)
I think that PS3 at 40%, Xbox 360 at 30% and Nintendo at 30% are more accurate predictions. Sony will have continued momentum from its current (PS2) fan base. The price will however be a deterrent to those who would have picked the system up in year two or three. A lot of analysts have also failed to notice one factor when it comes to the PS3. With the PS2 generation, there was a large variety of games to choose from; there were a lot of family games as well as bargain bin games which were mediocre at best, but filled the void for the gamer who wanted something decent to play without a $50 price tag. With the rise in development cost, many smaller companies won't be able afford to make games and some of the larger ones (ex: Disney) won't be able to develop as many titles to fill the all ages void that the PS3 will sure have. Simply put, the demographic who are willing to spend $400 - $500 on the PS3 aren't the same who will buy Winnie the Poohs latest adventure as good as it will look. With that being the case, I'm sure Disney is not willing to invest $10-$15 million on a product which won't produce a substantial Return on Investment. Besides the obvious, Microsoft has a few things in their favor this generation. 1. The early release gives them leverage on price and they will be able to drop the price of their console sooner than their competition. 2. Microsoft has excellent third party support this generation, with deals in place in the three major world regions. 3. The PS3 is technically stronger, but not by a large margin. For most of the titles release, people will not be able to see the difference in the games, especially since most of the target demographic still does not own High Definition displays. 4. Developers can reduce the cost of their next generation games in two ways. (A) By using Microsoft
The Revolution is still going to be the best system out there. The price definitly gives it a boost in my opinion.
Seems scstephens forgets that Nintendo's pockets are quite deep off their yearly high profits. Nintendo is far from a sinking ship. What made you thought that? Nowhere near last ditch. I sure hope that all three can maintain good competition to push out the quality exclusive games. I'm not going to feed my $$$ to no monopoly that will not care no more and shove crappy products down our thoats. I make $$$ so gimme the choices. They all look promising one way or another.
This is just Japanesse propaganda to keep PS3 in the race. 360 will be the market leader in the world at the end of 2006 because the PS3 will not launch until September/October. Revolution is a last ditch effort, by Nintendo, to stay afloat, but they will head in the same direction of SEGA and fall a part shortly after release of their product. PS3 and Xbox will share equal market share for years to come.
guys, you all know that the revolution is going to DOMINATE the Ps3 and 360!!!!! so why even bother arguing about it??? also, there's no WAY that the Ps3 is going to cost only $350!!! try, like, 500!!!!
that New confort my wallet
shrum91 how can people diss nintendo? i dont get that...you need to learn you're roots as a gamer.. Since the induction of the PS1 name a console that out sold a system from Sony.
Quite frankly, I don't think Microsoft has much to offer. I also had the Gamecube, PS2, and Xbox. I baught my Gamecube first, my PS2 second, and my Xbox last. I played my PS2 the most by far, next came the gamecube, and I probably played my Xbox for 3 months (now it's just collecting dust). I will most likely buy the PS3 after a price drop, and The Revolution at it's launch. Microsoft will release Halo 3, and it will sell like crazy, but I personally enjoy innovation rather then rehashes of games with better graphics.
I am pretty sure of this; the ps3 will definitely come out on top like it did with the ps2, it just may take more time for people to realize how much better it is than the other systems. Even though it is priced 400$, you are getting better game performance, including graphics and FREE ONLINE PLAY. remember that the 360 still has xbox live, which costs 50$ a year. Honestly , i dont know if the Revolution even has online play, but i bet it will.
Well, I had Gamecube, Playstation 2, and Xbox. I bought PS2 first, Xbox 2nd, and Gamecube third.. I hardly ever played Gamecube. I played Playstation 2 frequently until the launch of Xbox Live. From December 25th, 2002 to December 28th, 2005 Xbox was played about 98% of the time while I played Playstation 2 maybe three times in that span and Gamecube maybe twice during that span... That is why I got an Xbox 360 on December 28th... It's simply better in every aspect. Just think- Halo 3.... Halo 2 had awesome graphics on an Xbox. But think of the possibilities on an Xbox 360. I may get Playstation 3 when it gets under 350 dollars but, until then, Xbox 360 is just.... awesome.... Xbox 360 and Playstation 3 will be very comparable in terms of graphics. But, the online capabilities are not comparable.
i wonder if you all realize that you are on THE console. microsoft lose? look whos programs most of you are using! if sony or nintendo lose there audience they are shot, kaput, out of it! microsoft sells the programs to write there games to them! do you honestly think that microsoft will lose. i dont care if xbox 360 only has games like counting sand all the ywill do is make a laptop that plugs into a tv and can accept any format game. is there any thing else you need to know about the future?
how can people diss nintendo? i dont get that...you need to learn you're roots as a gamer..
It all in the numbers. Going by current gen and units shipped or sold, Sony with 90+ million units, Nintendo with 18+ million units, and Xbox with 20+ million units, the Next gen landscape will be pretty obvious AFTER you factor in the nature of the games being developed and the overall functionality of the systems. This is my prediction. from now till 2008 Xbox360 - 4.6 million units PS3 - 6.3 million units Revolution - 2.5 million units Xbox360 will hit a ceiling because of proprietary media formats but might gain the 3rd party developers. Revolution will hit its ceiling because of the game that are developed for it. All this being said I have not a clue as to what is going to happen in the next two years. I'm guessing. Sony and Nintendo KNOW markets and trends but Microsoft is literally bound by its own inability to accept widely accepted standards.
lol, the PS3 is gonna cost more than that, the revolution is just gonna have mario games cause thats all they make, and when RPG's and other Japanese games come out for xbox 360 it will sell like hot cakes when they see the price of a PS3 next to the Xbox 360
I think the Revolution is going to turn Nintendo around. People are saying that the controller is turning away 3rd party developers. But as it looks now the Rev is going to have a lot more 3rd party developers than the Gamecube ever had. I'de say Revolution will get some where around 35% precent of the market. while PS3 is at 45% and Xbox360 has 20%. And the continued success of the DS will bring more people towards Revolution. Apparently people do like innovation.
microsoft has definitely left the door open for it to be overtaken. but i don't know if 8 launch titles will be enough for sony to do it in 2006. if nintendo can get their stuff together and have a big launch like they did with the n64 and goldeneye, they could have a very strong showing. especially considering the revolution will most likely be the cheapest system. who wants to buy a $400+ PS3 with no games for it? not me.
go go sony !!!
I love how its always "obvious" how good the PS3 is going to be. 8 games confirmed for 2006. Probably going to be the most expensive system of the generation. No central online service. ... Fanboys.
I have a good feeling this generation will be ruled by Nintendo. They already have a formula that works with the DS and this will be ported to the homeconsoles via Revolution. I remember before PSP and DS were released everyone stated that PSP would kick DS's ass. That is far from the truth, as we all can see now. Don't knock revolution till you've tried it is all i'm saying.
Considering the excitement and support the Revolution already has even though we have yet to even see a game I am going to say that if Nintendo can show off a couple games that will certainly recieve a mature rating, games with graphics on par with what the PS3 and 360 will be releasing at the time, and games that properly take advantage of the new controller then Nintendo really will be poised to take control this generation.
I will joining in on all fronts. When i buy the PS3 and the Revolution. I already have a Xbox 360. The PS3 will have more of the market.
As much as i hate to see the beloved nintendo in its actual position i think they will take second place. lets beg for them not making the same mistakes again. controller?? well...lets see how that develops
damn 25 pages of comments, stop surfing the net and pay attention in class or get back to work
yeah i'm gettin' tired of analysts myself. it's jus confuses and confounds, but the demand/hype is so big and real facts are so hard to find, it's understandable why the analysts are comin' out of the woodwork. they're likely wrong about many of the things they attempt to forecast BUT they're a necessary evil so let's all be patient shall we?
i tihnk its going to iffy. i have no clue what to expect.
nice info..good points a view/arguments. thats a bummer ps3 will have so small a launch line up goin..revolution i think will be a revolution indeed, its playability for many ages whether new to console gaming or a veteran will attract many, at least in japan. excited to see how it turns out. imma buy em both
PS3 is gonna crush the 360 without a doubt and hopefully nintendo will stop being lazy and get some games not aimed tword kids!? cmon who plays little kids games anyhow...
am i the only person who's getting sick of hearing about "industry analysts"? where's the concrete info!? i remember when companies used to leak info, scfeens etc. about new consoles with the intention of increasing buzz. now everyone's so tight-lipped and it's starting to piss me off. bottom line: i want an actual price and an actual release date from Sony/Nintendo otherwise all of this analys crap means nothing to me. hell, in the 80's analysts said we'd all be dead from global warming by now
people that work for gamespot are getting payed by microsoft to say bad things aobut the ps3 you just al wait what the ps3 can do and the xbox360 can't do
people that work for gamespot are getting payed by microsoft to say bad things aobut the ps3 you just al wait what the ps3 can do and the xbox360 can't do
I don't understand how the PS3 could hold 1/2 of the market share by the end of 2006 since their console is predicted to be launched around the Fall.
LOL..... $343 at ps3's lowest???? i don't know what they're smokin. it will be 2 years until they lower the price to that.
In the end of this year PS3 maybe will have 50%, but in next year - MUCH MORE!!! PS3 RULEZ!!!
The DS Vs PSP war is foreshadowing the next-gen console war... the Revolution may win against PS3/360 with cheap price and great gameplay. I would say the Revolution will definitely have more than 20% of the market - 1st or 2nd place out of all consoles.
One of the only ways for the Revolution to kick the 360's ass by a lot is if it actually goes online. Games like Super Smash Bros. and Mario Kart and Metroid Prime are good line-ups for it to sell a lot more than the 360's crappy online games. I'll say PS3 is going to outsell both the 360 and Revolution everywhere and be in 1st place everywhere.
rodrigo_br, you've obviously missed the mark on Next-Gen medium. Everything is going online within the next few years. Many devs will jump on board with downloadable games due to the effective cost cuts with manufacturing and publishing. Couple that with the benefits of having the game loaded on the Hard Drive (Speed Benefits) and you've got yourself a medium no developer can refuse. Just because Blu-Ray can hold 4-5 times as much data than a DVD isn
Some of you guys are nuts sounding like you want some kind of monopoly by your fave company!?!? That kind of mindframe is so immature. You do realise that if any of the company (especially multimedia first type company like MS or Sony. Even Nintendo might go lazy if they become a monopoly) becomes a monopoly in gaming then the competition for quality would be none. They would be releasing lame systems and there would never ever be any innovation again in gaming. It would be like communism except you'll have to pay top $$$ for. Not to mention how much they would want you to pay for their system. SMH at these dumbass fanboys/girls. Just be a gamer and support all the good games. Does it matter what system gets what games? Each will have it's A+ title exclusives. Lastly pirating is lame and for bunch of cheapskates that need to get a real job....
"and they basically alienated more 3rd party developers with the controller" Nothing could be further from the truth. Nintendo's policy with this is: cheap system, cheap development costs, and innovation. At this point, not only have many many third party companies expressed undeniable interest in developing for the Revolution, but since the development costs are so much lower than PS3 and Xbox 360, expect to see pretty much every small development company that can't afford PS3 and Xbox360 development prices to put their games on the Revolution. That means games on PS3 and Xbox 360 are going to be 99% sequels since companies aren't going to spend that much development money on something they can't trust. Expect to see a lot more original games on the Revolution.
Boolow407, That's why Nintendo wins - It's cost's a crap load to burn the GC disc's. That's if you can even find a burner and blank CD's. People say the Rev will suck. Well, we'll just have to see. Atleast they are garenteered on atleast one sale from me :p
Pirating games is stupid, and hurts us all
rodrigo...Dude, your a little crazy giving your email out. There are alot of nuts on this site. Anyway, I never took into consideration from what other regions besides Japan,US and Europe will do for next gen gaming. I will say in defense of the 360, it has the room to expand and have either HD OR Blu ray where the PS will be stuck with blu ray. I will post a link for the original article if anyones interested. I will most likely own all three. I already have a 360, I will buy the Revo, but im iffy on the PS this time around. The PS has a weak launch line up and I wont buy it at its high price unless they bring more to the table. If anyone is gonna buy it just because they are banking on Sony's past sucess I say this-If we were to do that, everyone here would be playing Sega Genesis or Dreamcast as their main gaming rig. Whats successful today is gone tommorow in gaming.
If anyone have problems with borrowed games or rented games in the PS2 or any other plataforms it's because the console manufactures have a block system to prevent fake games, which are illegal on the USA but not illegal in Brazil(hehe). To solve that problem, in Brazil anyone can take the console to a store and install a chip that solves any problem, ANY. But here we just have this High tecnology stuff so we can play fake games (Copies of the original games made onto a blank DVD media). I don't know if that existis on the USA. Good Luck findin' a way to solve these kind of problems if they happen with the PS3s too. hehehe bye!
We can seesome X360 fans here... euheuh but we know that even tough that the X360 is good and may win in america... in japan the ps3 will be the first and if nintendo do make great games they'll be the second... but some say the BD drive isn't a advantage as it was for the ps2, but i believe it will be an advantage in gaming since it has a lot more space for game history, content and more complex programming... if the X360 had came with a HD-DVD drive for games then it may beat sony... but it doesn't... hehe microsoft was stupid on that... they forgot that next-gen gaming needs next-gen media... the real first-gen(PS1) used CDs... the second (PS2,Xbox) used DVDs... The third (Xbox360,PS3) shall use a new media... Right now in the beggining of this war the media for games makes no such great difference, but as the time moves forward it will be a decisive point... and microsoft will lose on that(so as nintendo if the rev uses normal dvd for games) and them the ps3 will have not just won, but will have destroyed competition... i don't know why the price is such decisive for you guys... I'm Brazilian (our capitol is NOT Buenos Aires, and most of amazonia is ours hehe) Here in Brazil, all of the plataforms are expensive(a PS2 costs 800 of our money, the real(R$)) at a point the prices are pushed togheter by those who sell the consoles, and here the PS2 have outsold ALL the others with a HUGE difference because here, we always find a way to to raise that money and buy the games and the consoles that have the best games(best third party support=SONY) and the best console... in the US it's way easier to buy a console, but here, it's so difficult, that, if we're goin to buy... we wait longer, but we buy the best... the only thing that may give the victory to the X360 in brazil is the price of the games... An original one costs up to R$300 but it's easy to find a fake that its exactly equal the original by R$20, that's on the dvd but on the blu-ray, we're not sure if we'll be able to make fake ones... that means that the X360 owners can buy a game for R$20 while the PS3 owners may have to buy it original by R$300... But i really believe that our friends from another third world coutries may find a way to give us complete games by R$50... Making the SONY consoles win with an even bigger difference again... If the games were being sold in the US by US$300 and the plataforms by US$700 and those who buy it were up to the best, not to the cheap, then, microsoft wouldn't had even entered this wars and nintendo would be makin games for the SONY... And, thinkin' a little, microsoft and nintendo may end up makin games for the Sony plataforms... You people gotta agree that if this happens may be great... Just one console that plays all the games is a good idea ;) Oh, i'm lookin to make this clear to everyone and maybe make new friends... please, if someone don't understand what i said, my MSN is pegou206@hotmail.com -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-Microsoft should have stopped with the PCs | |-Nintendo should have made games for SONY consoles | |-Everyone would be happy that way | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------