IDC: Next-gen consoles won't match current-gen sales

Research manager at International Data Corp. says consoles as a product category have peaked.

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As Microsoft prepares to give first details on its next-generation Xbox in a matter of hours, one market watcher has spoken out to say consoles as a product category face an uphill battle.

"The next wave crest isn't as high as the previous one," International Data Corp. research manager Lewis Ward told Reuters.

Ward estimated that a combined 250 million Xbox 360, PlayStation 3, and Wii units were sold between 2005 and 2012. Microsoft has confirmed that 77 million Xbox 360 units were sold, while Nintendo has revealed Wii sales of 99 million. That leaves around 74 million for the PS3.

"I do think that consoles as a product category have peaked and the next-gen devices won't match those totals," Ward added.

Nintendo's Wii U is the only next-generation console on the market thus far. It has struggled, selling 3.45 million units worldwide since its launch last year.

Sony has confirmed that the PlayStation 4 will launch this holiday season, the same window that Microsoft's next Xbox is believed to be on store shelves.

Microsoft has invited media to its Redmond, Washington, campus today where the company will formally announce its vision for the future of games and entertainment. GameSpot is on location at the event and will have details from the presentation as they become available.

Discussion

132 comments
arc_salvo
arc_salvo

Well honestly, with the things Microsoft's said about their X-box "One" and with the Wii U being the way it is, and competition from Ouya, Steambox, and PC and Tablets/Phones out there, along with the fact that people still have books, TV, and Movies and other forms of entertainment, I wouldn't be surprised if next-gen consoles didn't do as well as this generation's.

Then again, if the next-gen products end up being very good and eventually fall to a great price point, I can also see them selling just as well if not better than the current generation.  That is if Microsoft doesn't flub things up with all their content restrictions.  If Sony doesn't do everything that Microsoft says it will, I'm guessing that we'll see them dominating.

XAF1
XAF1

I agree that next gen console sales won't be as good as the current gen but not because console sales have peaked but because the three console makers are not all in touch with their consumers and what they really want in their next console purchase. The Wii U isn't next gen but late to the last gen battle.  Once again Nintendo did its own thing but it's not going to be as lucky as it was with the Wii.  Many of us let the Wii slide but felt burnt and let down----not ever again.  Nintendo needs some excellent hardware to back its big ambitions.  It has always come up short after the Super Nintendo, unlike with Sega, now it has real competition and it needs to start acting like it and step up.  Sony may actually win the Next Gen if MS keeps making mistakes by under estimating consumers and over estimating brand loyalty.  Give your consumers what they want and most will always come back.

constrictor14
constrictor14

Wait wait wait... "IDC: Next-gen consoles won't match current-gen sales,"  so you mean to tell me that you're giving Nintendo crap because... you predicted that there wouldn't be as many new systems sold... and they are following your prediction... Really?

inaka_rob
inaka_rob

tell that to the iphone. or galaxy or smart phone market. Consumers are PROGRAMED to upgrade their toys. 

Iphone 4 and 5 sold more than the iphone 3. same with Galaxy! 

Give it time and the Xbox 1 and ps4 will probably outsell the ps3 and xbox 360. give it 7 years. 

I mean how can this boozo predict what sales will be like in 7 years??? 

Jyakotu
Jyakotu

The reason the Wii U isn't selling is because it just can't compete. Face it, it's nothing more than an updated Wii that's playing catch up to current gen console competition. When the PS4 and Xbox One are released, I guarantee that they both will do numbers because they're INNOVATING and giving what games want (Xbox One is debatable with this). Using the Wii U as a prediction to how next gen consoles will do is a fail because Nintendo has lost their touch. Pretty soon, they'll just put all their resources into their handhelds and leave the console market to the big boys.

thundercave01
thundercave01

Microsoft has confirmed that all Xbox One games will require mandatory installation onto the system's hard drive and, to install the same disc onto another user's drive, a fee must be paid.

Individual games will be tied to Xbox Live accounts, Microsoft said, meaning that the software giant can detect whether a game has been sold to a retailer and repurchased, or handed from one friend to another. In such instances, the second user must pay a fee.

"On the new Xbox, all game discs are installed to the HDD to play," a Microsoft representative told Wired.

The company added that, once discs are installed on the hard drive, games can be played without a disc being in the tray.

The Wired article then elaborates: "What follows naturally from this is that each disc would have to be tied to a unique Xbox Live account, else you could take a single disc and pass it between everyone you know and copy the game over and over. Since this is clearly not going to happen, each disc must then only install for a single owner."

It added: "Microsoft did say that if a disc was used with a second account, that owner would be given the option to pay a fee and install the game from the disc, which would then mean that the new account would also own the game and could play it without the disc."

Microsoft did not disclose what the second-user fee would amount too, and did not clarify further on the matter.

The article claims that there is no sweeping 'always-online' requirement for future Xbox One games.



its like they don't have enough money already.........

jsmoke03
jsmoke03

yea it isnt going to sell more cuz ninty isnt selling anywhere close to what they did. i dont even think it will sell 40 million

AlphaWolF_J
AlphaWolF_J

I would hope gamers would not sell out and say hey Microsoft you know all that dirty shit you tried to pull, well i wont support a company with cheap morals like that.

Instead of going hey i forgive you for being assholes ,im also very shallow and have zero integrity & a bit of a thicko, but please take my cash and screw me over again..

Let the stupid test begin

Buck_Swaggler
Buck_Swaggler

By using Wii U as a comparison this guys comparison has already failed.

Blue-Sky
Blue-Sky

But it also kind of baffles me that more people don't buy video game consoles. 

Tens of millions shell out hundreds for a new iPhone/Android every year. 

NeoBillbine
NeoBillbine

Its a pc son. not an industry first. 

NeoBillbine
NeoBillbine

amazing technology?????? AMD = Finished 

WingChopMasta
WingChopMasta

Well with their conference so far I think they are trying hard NOT to beat this gen. Skype, IE, TV BS? 

These are literally things NOONE wants to use, especially on an console. 

It looks ugly, the name is stupid and the Kinect is bigger than the original. How many eye sores are they going to add to this thing? 

PS4 it is. 

NeoBillbine
NeoBillbine

LOL xbox onez looks like a desktop pc. 

Pupchu
Pupchu

when the PS3 first came the "experts" called it to expensive and was doomed to fail. once more and more exclusive titles was released on the system, the more people found a interrest in it. take this guy's statement with a pinch of salt.

Black_Knight_99
Black_Knight_99

the wii u didn't sell much because everyone is gonna get ps 4 and the xbox infinty and ps 3 and xbox 360 now have better grachics then wii u and thats sad nintendo im thinking of getting a pc and beat ps 4 and the new xbox so yeah

Diablo-B
Diablo-B

This is correct. I don't see how the 3 console makers sell close to what they did last gen.

*cough cough* *Looks at Wii U* 

... I wouldn't be surprised if sony and M$ equal or slightly out sell their numbers from last gen. They won't be the reason why less consoles will sell.

*cough nintendo cough*

mr_squibble
mr_squibble

No surprise here. Even if the WiiU sells less than the Wii (which is very possible), total consoles sold could very well be less, even if more PS4 and NextBoxes are sold than in the previous generation. It's going to very difficult for Nintendo to replicate the success of the Wii.

ravenkiller
ravenkiller

thats because he's looking at the wii u as next gen I garauntee you that most ppl are skipping wii u for a ps4 or the new xbox wait until those two launch then make your assumptions

Avenger1324
Avenger1324

would this be the same type of industry "expert" that has been foretelling the death of PC gaming for the last 15 years?

still alive and more powerful than ever :)

Gegglington
Gegglington

has gamespot crashed on the comments on new xbox reveal page?

pspearman
pspearman

Im confused, Gamespot says 5pm BST, xbox.com says 6pm BST...which is it?

Dangerous231
Dangerous231

woooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooxbox reveal 4 mins away baby boy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

CharlesBurns
CharlesBurns

The Wii U has struggled because it sucks.


Graphics are almost as good as they're gonna get. Which explains why the next round of innovation is going to come from online social gaming and new connectivity features between consoles, the web and smart phones etc.

jhcho2
jhcho2

He does have a point. The Wii sold 99 mil units. Half of that casual market won't be returning for a second helping.

ShayaN7516
ShayaN7516

guys can someone tell me how much time is left untill the microsoft confrence begins?


malokevi
malokevi

They can rest assured that my money is theirs.

GOGOHeadray
GOGOHeadray

WII U is not selling because of a myraid of reasons but chiefly two things: 1. There is a distinct lack of games to play for the system and Nintendo has not shown the ability to create new experncies on their home consoles; 2. The Wii U is marketed for a casuel audience which has left the home console gaming sphere. The PS4 and 720 will move numbers but we wont see it till around a year from launch when there is a compelling enough reason to buy the console.

teknic1200
teknic1200

@Jyakotu no, wii u is a tight little box, it's been unjustly bashed on but watch it's price point float it in on holiday sales.


wii u is selling better than the xbox360 did in the same time period.


The other consoles are saturated with games, of course they are going to sell will, this combined with discounts makes it perfectly reasonable for it to lag in sales.


I can tell you forced kinect integration that requires you to always have a listening seeing device connected to the internet in your house makes this new xbox a no go for me.


Yeah, the cool kids like EA can bash the wii u, it doesn't make it true and who wants to suck up to EA anyway?

constrictor14
constrictor14

@Jyakotu You can't play 5-player local multi-player with any other console, and the 2 screen thing is really cool when you want to watch tv and play.  It's all about the games, and Nintendo just launched without a 2nd heavy hitter.  They need that to drive sales.

WantYouBad
WantYouBad

@Jyakotu I dunno man, a new Smash Bros might get me buying, as long as they have a decent online feature with it.

lilcurt1978
lilcurt1978

@thundercave01  I have read this and I think I  understand what they are doing many people will not. SO if you go over to a friends house and he wants the game also instead of him going out to buy the game. the friend would just take your copy and pay the fee to allow them to download that game on to their system. thus giving that friend access to the game. in other words it just like buying a used game just cutting gamestop and other retail stores out . my only problem with this will be what will this fee cost. if the fee is 10 to 25 then that will be ok in my book. you get the same game for a cheaper price . but the down side to this is the used game market will be hurt. if you buy a used game from gamestop you then have to pay a fee for that game to play on your system. but if you buy halo you can then take that game sell it to gamestop and  you still have the downloaded game on your system to play.  so you make a quick buck and still have your game . I am not sure I am correct on all of this but I know I am close.

WantYouBad
WantYouBad

@AlphaWolF_J Gamers are already like that. They drove EA to power. And if people really felt that way then the next big undertaking would be to not buy/boycott The Last of Us for being the latest to implement a season pass, and do so with every other game that has ridiculous amounts of DLC.

But none of that will happen, gamers are like drug addicts, they need that next fix and don't care what it costs.

luqmanr
luqmanr

@Blue-Sky Because iPhone and Android are device of communication. They need them to do work, at least right now since it's much easier to communicate with smartphones.

flyingdutchdog2
flyingdutchdog2

@WingChopMasta well let the Sony fanboyism begin ... totally an irrelevant comment from some short sighted pig who wants to make love to his PS4.

Grenadeh
Grenadeh

@mr_squibble Uh well so far the Wii U is at about a 20th of Wii's sales, even the Wii's first 6 months were better than these first 6 months have been for U.

KristenVr
KristenVr

@pspearman Both are correct! GameSpot just starts 1 hour earlier with pre-show probably!

psycohideo
psycohideo

@GOGOHeadray Very soon there should be a major price drop for the U. It has so much bad publicity, and I think only nintendo fans and game collectors are going after it. I have not seen anything special from the U, it does not have groundbreaking mechanics as the wii did, so it looks like a pile of junk and will have a worse library than the 64 had, which is pretty damn bad imo.

 

WingChopMasta
WingChopMasta

@flyingdutchdog2 @WingChopMasta Fanboyism? That is not even a word, anyways I was an Xbox fan, have been since the first but not anymore.

From the tears in your eyes because of my comment and the complete hypocrisy of your comment..their seems to be a fine line of how you would define a 'fanboy'.

And don't be jealous that the PS4 will be pretty enough to have sex with and you are stuck with this beast of a mate.  


GOGOHeadray
GOGOHeadray

@psycohideo @GOGOHeadray TArget already dropped the price to 240 I believe for the basic model. A price drop this early is not a good sign for a healthy console. I also agree with everything you just said.

Addice
Addice

@psycohideo @GOGOHeadray I don't feel too bad for Wii U owners. It was foreseeable that this was going to happen.

The Wii U library is just pathetic and I don't see it getting any better anytime soon.

psycohideo
psycohideo

@GOGOHeadray @psycohideo yeah, nintendo looks to have dropped the ball, I feel bad for people who have a U, it's going to be dropped like the staturn/mega cd- leaving people hanging that should of had refunds or free upgrade to the new system.