Halo: Reach to push September sales up 2.4% - Analyst

Wedbush's Michael Pachter projects $665 million in sales, boost from Bungie shooter tempered by $100 million slide in rhythm genre.

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After three straight months of declining game software sales, Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter believes Bungie's Halo: Reach finally pushed the industry into positive territory for September. The prediction was included in a note Pachter sent to investors today detailing his expectations for the NPD Group's September sales figures (set to be released Thursday).

Pachter predicts Halo: Reach will salvage software sales growth.

Based on the strength of Halo: Reach, Pachter projected US retail software sales for September to hit $665 million, a 2.4 percent increase over September 2009's total. That increase would be larger were it not for expected declines in the music genre. While top 10 sales performances by Guitar Hero 5 and Rock Band: The Beatles last year helped bolster the flagging genre, Pachter believes Guitar Hero: Warriors of Rock managed to sell only 100,000 units for the month. Overall, Pachter expected rhythm genre sales to be down more than $100 million for the month, from $116 million to just $15 million.

Beyond Halo: Reach, Pachter expects the month's best-selling new releases to include Dead Rising 2 and FIFA Soccer 11. As for Sony's PlayStation Move, he predicted "modest" launch sales for the PS3's motion-sensing controller.

Pachter also believes Sid Meier's Civilization V on the PC sold through 350,000 copies, although those numbers won't be included in the console- and handheld-only NPD gaming charts. September numbers will also benefit from continued strong sales of Madden NFL 11 and Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2, Pachter believes, with the analyst expecting EA's pigskin sim to have moved 725,000 copies during the month.

While Pachter didn't put a dollar amount on hardware sales, he did project the number of consoles and handhelds sold to be down 18 percent. He was particularly pessimistic on console sales for the near future, as August and September of 2009 saw price cuts for all major systems, driving late 2009's hardware sales up significantly. Sales of Sony's Move and Microsoft's Kinect Xbox 360 camera may compensate somewhat, but Pachter noted that only the hardware bundles will count toward the NPD Group's hardware sales total. The industry-tracking group will count Microsoft's $150 Kinect camera and Sony's $100 Move controller starter kit as accessory sales rather than hardware.

September may be as good as the industry gets for the rest of the year. Pachter said he expects October sales to be up "only slightly," with November and December sales both sliding year-over-year. For the full year, he predicts console and handheld sales to end up down, with those losses offset by growth in the PC gaming market thanks to Blizzard Entertainment's Starcraft II and World of Warcraft: Cataclysm.

Discussion

127 comments
Krystyan68
Krystyan68

Are these the same analysts that said the PS3 would overtake the 360??

killer690
killer690

And Bungie is now going to work for Activision, Bummer.

LindBergh2007
LindBergh2007

Colonel-Snake SEGA has pretty much all the top Japanese and Europeon publishers supporting the RingEdge based digital console. They've been sending out development kits all summer long. Games will be downloadable only ranging from $10 to $15 dollars. In addition to downloadable games there will be other downloadable streamed media availible with the service as well including television programs, family casual games and older SEGA titles from Master System to Dreamcast(SEGA CD and Saturn games are included).

blackace
blackace

@SicklySunStorm said: If the PS3 overtook the 360, then how would it still be 2nd? That doesn't even make sense.... and 1st position does indeed matter if you're talking about a sport maybe, but when comparing industries, not at all really. All it means is who has sold most - not necessarily at all does it reveal whether or not those in 2nd place and below are still making a good profit and therefore have a very valid business venture. And besides - if you use your own logic, and only first matters, then I'm sorry but the 360 is so far behind the Wii, it can't even see it.... it's just very flawed logic you're displaying to get your point across. *************************************** I think you're confused. First of all, I said "1st place is the only position that matters to be the winner." So yes 1st place matters. I said, "If the PS3 passed the XBox 360 it would only be in 2nd place and would still lose this generation anyways." 1st place matters to Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo and their stock holders. It also matters to many businesses who support and invest in the gaming market. So it may not matter much to gamers, but it does matter to the gaming industry and the companies who run it. Of course profits matter. You could be in fourth place and still be making a proft. The real difference is how much support will you get. I love gaming. As I've already said, it's more about the games then the hardware. I own a PS3, Wii, PSP and DSi as well.

blackace
blackace

@amaan4ever @ blackace why are u hattin on the ps3 so much. I am a ps3 fanboy but i respect the xbox360 . Ur just talking bulls**t about the ps3 for no reason ************************************************************* I don't need to BS. I've worked in the industry for almost 15 years. When I said M$ would release their own Slim after Sony launched their PS3 Slim, everyone on here laughed. Not too many people are laughing now. I'm not hating on the PS3, as I own one myself and have several exclusives. The Kinect also only has 2-3 games worth playing. I'm not expecting many people to buy that either. Most gamers, I believe, will just wait 8-10 months before buying the MOVE or Kinect.

Colonel-Snake
Colonel-Snake

@Shafe-man You're free to believe that. Although everyone with a brain knows Price difference always plays a factor in comparisons. End of the day most people here are talking about Consoles not the handhelds which is why I said it is a terrible comparison. If you wanna compare a DS do what most anaylist does compare it to another handheld in the same market which is called the PSP. Don't sit here and act as if the DS is affecting sales of any of the major consoles because its not honestly which is why its a terrible comparison. The DS plays no major role into the console wars so why bring it up ? Thats why I said its a terrible comparison.

iiIsSueZ
iiIsSueZ

Why do people even bother with listening to analysts predictions? They don't matter. How about we wait until the end of the month or whenever the OFFICIAL stats get released and then we have the facts. Seriously, no should give a crap about these pointless predictions.

shafe-man
shafe-man

@Colonel-Snake How is it that much cheaper? 360=$199. Wii=$199. PS3=$299. DS=$150. (Average). Ok, let's see...... oh, it's only $50 more for 360 and Wii? And the PS3 has blueray! Well woopdydoo, they're all gaming consoles. Wait, you're talking about the price difference? Well then PS3 should be compared to BlueRay players, the Wii to the Xbox, and the DS to the.... it doesn't have any competition. That's just sad. Just imagine how stupid you'd look if you said that when the 360 was $300, the PS3 $600, and the Wii $250. And PSP $250, and the DS lower than all of them. 360, PS3, DS no competition. PSP vs Wii. Is that fair? No. Because people don't compare prices. Or else there would be little/no competition in the gaming industry. And how the heck does that pertain to the current subject anyway? Seriously man, stop going off topic. DS sells more than anything else. End of story.

max_1111
max_1111

The slump was obviously due to all those damn PC users pirating software. /capcom.

Colonel-Snake
Colonel-Snake

@Shafe-man Its a handheld and its cheaper then all 3 of the major consoles. To be honest thats a terrible comparison.

shafe-man
shafe-man

@Colonel-Snake Dude it's really close. Give it about a month and it'll get higher (and beat it), since the Red DSi is coming out.

pest-x
pest-x

@shafe-man nope, I just said you can't really compare them.

Pete5506
Pete5506

This latest halo game is pretty good, I am enjoying it as much as I did CE

gbrading
gbrading moderator

I still don't understand why Michael Pachter's predictions are listened to at all. The number of times analysts have been wrong are too many to number.

PrimeLazarus
PrimeLazarus

I find Halo: Reach to be a very fun Halo game and a solid multiplayer game. Hope it sells well, haters aside

Colonel-Snake
Colonel-Snake

@LindBergh2007 Thats fine and good but what about the games ? Nobody will buy a console that lack games and most of Sega games aren't big point sellers or even mainstream. The only hope they have left is so called Vanquish I believe and I believe that will end up in the same situation as Bayonetta. Powerful Console doesn't mean anything if you have crap games and right now Sega has ABSOLUTELY NO GAMES to back up their console. They are basically bringing a Gun with no ammo to a gun brawl. If what you're saying is true then I wish them the best but still the odds are indeed stack against them. They would have to try and steal consumers from all 3 of their competitors and then make their console seem unique from the others, on top of that they will need some games to attract both the casual market and hardcore.

LindBergh2007
LindBergh2007

chingchow48 You obviously have no idea, don't you? Console sales and game sales have declined throughout the past two years, SKUs are to keep the maunufactures busy in development of thier next machines. People are getting sick and tired of paying $60-70 for boxed software and most small developers are moving toward digital content. The RingEdge is designed for digital software and runs at lower costs than the aging three systems. The reason why development costs are so high and expensive is because of PPU. This thing has made it difficult to sell a game at a proper markup budget. These are the factors why analyst keep predicting a slump in game sales. You don't have believe them, but in reality the proof is in the pudding.

im-a-roustabout
im-a-roustabout

@ LindBergh2007 The same could have been said when the PSP was coming out...One could have touted the LCD screen and all it's power and capabilities and it's still a bit of a flop. The Dreamcast was affordable and more powerful but it was a flop...Ringedge sounds good, but you never really know these days.

LindBergh2007
LindBergh2007

SicklySunStorm. Hopefully it is. I can tell you that the RingEdge thing is REAL though.

LindBergh2007
LindBergh2007

Colonel-Snake SEGA launching two machines within 18 months of each other a digital RINGEDGE based On-Live like device for $150 that runs at 5X times the power of PS3 and $300 3D stereoscopic console(in development for almost 5 years) that has the upper hand in pricing,manufacturing costs, and uses exclusive OEM hardware inccesable to everyone else. Yeah, they'll probably get crushed.

chingchow48
chingchow48

[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]

Colonel-Snake
Colonel-Snake

@LindBergh2007 I already heard about the RingEdge a LONG time ago. Although supposedly RingEdge is designed for arcade games. I wouldn't be surprised if Sega launched a Console at all, but at the same time I wouldn't be surprised if they failed and got crushed again in the long run.

steve4123456789
steve4123456789

Why would you tell poeple if your failing, you only tell poeple what they want to here...

LindBergh2007
LindBergh2007

Colonel-Snake I understand that. But consider the fact that sometimes speculation is speculation. It's ludicrious to call it nonsense, when its just a rumor mill. And that's what I'm doing,calling it a rumor mill. Think about this, SEGA spent 2009 and 2010 issuing and trademarking dozens not filing,issuing patents. But GS and most of the game media ignored this. Yet Gamespot uselessly reported Sony filing patents when patents when patents are filed everyday. It's assinine to report on a filed patent since is probably likely not going to see light of day. Oh and one more thing: The RingEdge based device IS real and true fact. I keep telling everyone that an annoucement will take place at CES 2011 because I'm defiently sure that will be when it's unveiled.

Colonel-Snake
Colonel-Snake

@LindBergh2007 Prove your claims then lmao ? Last I checked the PS1 basically destroyed The Dreamcast even though it was indeed more powerful. Sega is going into suicide if they think they can compete with any of the Big 3. Not only do they lack games but they single handedly destroyed the Sonic image and the name. Its not that they can't get back into the Competition its that there is no room for it. What major games do they have that are console sellers ? The only game I can think that would push hardware in Japan possibly would be Yakuza.... and that won't even be enough. Sega going back into the "Console War" in my opinion is a complete suicide mission of no return. Not only do they lack in sales in most of their games alone they have no major titles to push hardware. Say what you want about Microsoft, Sony, or Nintendo but all 3 have games that can indeed Push Hardware.

LindBergh2007
LindBergh2007

It's easy to believe that SEGA is incapable of getting back until the hardware busis bunest few people know the real story on Dreamcast and don't actually realize that SEGA wanted to keep going and keep Dreamcast alive.(Thier CEO planned on giving OEM companies the license to manufacturer thier own Dreamcasts) Once you learn the story(a new CEO came in and ordered the company to stop making hardware with the entire company against it), you realize SEGA has been trying to get back in the game for quite some time.(They had a console planned in 2005 from LINDBERGH hardware that was scrapped.) And to everyone all non-mobile 3rd party software support and revert back to 1st party development 80%. else, FYI SEGA has no plans to support PS4,Xbox 3 and so forth and has set the year 2012 as the year they discountinue all non-mobile 3rd party software support.

SicklySunStorm
SicklySunStorm

I want all LindBergh's info on Sega to be true, but as someone else said, these are all rumour only, and until we have any official announcement from the company it means squat to speculate.

aahill35
aahill35

@Penpusher: Perhaps I was being a bit pessimistic about blu-ray's prospects (or those of hard format in general). In terms of streaming potential, I think the cable providers are in the strongest position, and that is where growth in streaming is likely to be greatest. 93% of US households are passed by broadband service. http://www.ncta.com/statistics.aspx A large and growing proportion of those households have HD access. If you have HD channels, then your set-top box is capable of viewing HD content on demand. But let's say you want to download an HD movie from an internet source and not pay for VOD from your cable provider. Even if you have an average broadband connection (3.9 mbps download for the US), you could download an HD movie in its entirety in about 2.25 hours. Streaming 720p HD content (I am using Netflix's numbers here) is within the capabilities of connection speeds of 8 mbps and up.

LindBergh2007
LindBergh2007

respessz. Most of the info reguarding Sony,Nintendo,Mircosoft is from industry insiders. Also info on SEGA is very hard to find and the normal game sites cannot get ahold of info because SEGA has a very strict policy regaurding its Amusment department. Keeping stuff tightly sealed and top secret. Employeers are NOT allowed to disclose anything and at the forum,you'll be presecuted for speculating on anything SEGA related. which is why this blog exists: http://seganewswire.webs.com The blog's job is to report anything that may or may not be going on at SEGA. The site admits that sometimes they're sources may not provide them with accurate info but does have a former engineer to clarify what's accurate and what's not. He has confirmed to me that so far this summer, the reports have been true. I understand the fustraitions with Sony fans about the fact that PS3 has been the loser this gen, but this is reality. PS3 has failed despite it being a decent system. And to Nintendo fans, does anyone seriously think that a "Wii 2" would capature the same success considering Kinect and Move will be very competitive against Wii? I personally think Satoru Iwata is making a very smart business move scrapping the project.

LindBergh2007
LindBergh2007

Part 2. Move was created to breath life until the failing PS3. Also Sony lost $10 billion on PS3 alone. Spending over 5 years on R&D for it having filed the trademark in 1999. SEGA has a 3D stereoscopic console codenamed "SEGADRIVE" which has been in development since 2006 in addition to RingEdge. I've been talking to a former engineer at Sega Away-27 about it( on both Sega's forum and on a SEGA blog) and he told me SEGA locked an exclusive deal with Imagination Tech for a high powered cheap GPU called "Power VR 6". Don't believe me, a europeon site confirmed this in June 2010: http://www.xboxic.com/news/6241 http://www.kaldata.com/comments.php?catid=4&id=55129 Both the engineer and I were banned from Sega of America's forum. They're admin restricts console speculation. Also SEGA locked a deal to use a modified version of Fujistu's HPC called "SPARC Venus 8" which runs at 4.0 GHZ, the console will sell for $300 and will launch in mid 2012. RingEdge will be annouced publicly at CES 2011 while SEGADRIVE will be unveiled at a press confrence in Toyko,Japan in April/May 2011.

Colonel-Snake
Colonel-Snake

@LindBergh2007 Nobody will get upset or shouldn't because that is nothing but assumptions and nothing more. Anybody can put anything that they want to on the internet. The internet is nothing more but a sea full of rumors and lies and assumptions. Only Sony, Microsoft, and nintendo knows their plans and goals for the future... Not some random person on gamespot who posted a list of stuff without any facts or proof to back it up.

respessz
respessz

@LindBergh2007 very cool info you have there but where did you find this information? besides that... cant wait til Thursday to see how the industry is doing!

LindBergh2007
LindBergh2007

To all the readers here, I've been doing some research and looking until the rumor mill pool(not just for SEGA) but for the big 3. To Mircosoft fans I can tell you this: Xbox 3 is early in development but is not expected until late 2012(Mircosoft is in talks with Intel and Nvidia for silicon.) "Kinect" was invented to give Mircosoft more time to decide whether they want to sell Xbox 3 as a console or digital device like SEGA RingEdge(Mircosoft just found out about RingEdge this year). Xbox 3 will sell for about $350. To Nintendo fans and fanboys, listen to me and listen to me carefully: There will be no "Wii 2". Satoru Iwata himself ordered the project postponed indefinetly and believes that with Move and Kinect Motion Sensor has run its course, Nintendo also knows about RingEdge and has been in talks with SHARP,Panosonic,Intel and AMD about chipsets hoping to launch a contender codenamed "GALAXY" in 2012. Also the big N is already abandoning Wii for 3DS. Sony fans are probably going to thumb me down for this: Sony is in serious trouble. They having a rough time finding a chipset for PS4, They planned on using Power 7 as a HPC(Sony wants a single core HPC) but it would cost $500! Sony is waiting for Intel to decide which HPC they will use for OEM either "Larrabee" or "Knights Corner" if PS4 sees light of day the system will launch for $400.

RSM-HQ
RSM-HQ

I'm a PS3 owner but I am happy Halo Reach is selling well, it's a great franchise. I'm also happy Starcraft 2 is selling good, awesome game.

penpusher
penpusher

@aahill35 I think youre getting a bit to enthusiastic about the power of digital downloads over physies HD cal media here. The physical disc is not on its way out its actually still going very strong because downloading still has a long way to go. For example, yes you can stream a lot of HI-def content but 7 times out of 10 that content is inferior to the disc equivilant and the main problem is bandwidth ... most of the people with broadband dont have one fast enough to download the stuff that physical media can store for a lot less cash (i'm thinking of line rental, ISP bills etc) and more importantly there are parts of the world that dont even have a broadband connection let alone a fast one. Until the world gets to a stage where everyone has a fast connection physical media is still dominant

Colonel-Snake
Colonel-Snake

@aahill35 I don't think it has been a lost honestly. Sony has always been known to push new formats. Tell me who helped moved DVD players mainstream ? Physical media isn't on its way out are you kidding me lmao ? There is a lot of people that rather have a physical copy then a digital copy. And when these Gaming companies are making some games mandatory that you have to have a internet connection to play it is not helping at all. I like to make sure what I buy is secured and I'm not talking about someone holding it onto their own personal server. These companies are not a bank and I don't trust them at all. Also a lot of people still lag online with terrible internet connections. You think someone with a bad connection wants to sit there and download what 20gigs of data for a game ? This has been a lesson to Sony in my opinion. 1 Don't ever launch a 500 to 600 dollar consoles and expect people to buy it. 2. Don't ever launch it with lackluster titles. Its a good thing it went bad for them now they have no choice but to keep pumping out AAA exclusives because last gen they didn't have to do anything most of their AAA were from 3rd party developers. I believe this is a good lesson to Sony.

aahill35
aahill35

PS3 or 360, a gamer should be happy. But it is clear that this generation has been an unmitigated disaster for Sony. They lost their dominant position to Nintendo AND Microsoft, and things are unlikely to change before the next generation.

aahill35
aahill35

A non-blu-ray PS3 would have launched earlier, at a lower cost, at a time when the PS2 was far and away the dominant choice. Was the blu-ray build-in worth it? No. Sony could have re-launched a blu-ray capable console at a later date. Their bundling strategy undermined what seemed to be an unassailable advantage on the hardware side. That is the too early story. And now that blu-ray is dominant, the next question is, so what? You can stream tons of HD content through your PS3, 360, and numerous other pieces of hardware. Physical media are on their way out. Through 2009, blu-ray disc sales worldwide were about 1.5 units per blu-ray player sold. They've picked up somewhat this year, but blu-ray's long term prospects look more like betamax than like dvds. That is a story Sony knows well.

aahill35
aahill35

Arguments over which console is best are fairly ridiculous, at this stage. Setting aside the Wii (a different animal altogether), it is clear that both the 360 and the PS3 have significant merits, and that most people, having chosen one, have plenty of reasons to be happy with their choice. But here are the facts about both consoles. 1) Total Sales to date (worldwide): 360, 43.7 million; PS3, 38 million. Sony has a big edge in Japan, but is behind by 10 million in the Americas, and about on par everywhere else. 2) Total software units sold to date (worldwide): 360, 419 million; PS3, 279 million. The tie ratio (units of software sold per console sold) is significantly higher for the 360 (9.6 versus 7.7). Sony sold the PS3 at a huge loss, only turning a profit per console sold in April this year. The feeling was that once blu-ray became the HD standard, the PS3's sales would pick up. This has happened, to some extent, as the PS3's monthly sales surpassed the 360's in 2009. But around the middle of this year, the 360 again moved past the PS3 in monthly sales. Since June, the 360 has outsold both the Wii and the PS3, the latter by over a million units. This has been driven primarily by Microsoft's launch of the 360 slim. However, a bigger issue for Sony is the "too early/too late" problem with Blu-Ray. In insisting on incorporating a blu-ray player into the PS3, they gave Microsoft a big head start this generation.

Colonel-Snake
Colonel-Snake

@Warlord_Irochi I agree. I don't believe any of the three will ever leave the gaming industry they all make to much money and also they have TONS of games that appeal to everyone. Besides The PS2 sold what over 120mil and the Gamecube and Xbox sold 20mil so yeah this is nothing compared to what happen last generation and all 3 of them are doing pretty good right now so I see a good future for the gaming industry. Well least in terms of them still making games and consoles. I just hate the whole DLC concept now with incomplete games.

Horusalis
Horusalis

@Warlord Irochi "Console wars is a ridiculous concept anyway...". I agree 100%. That and anyone who sticks to one console is missing out on a lot of great games scattered throughout all three.

Warlord_Irochi
Warlord_Irochi

Console wars is a ridiculous concept anyway... like any of the three systems was going to crumble after the "winner" was decided.

Warlord_Irochi
Warlord_Irochi

@mundus: Considering the amounth of real active players... easily

Bufta
Bufta

I could be an analyst its easy! However i think the way they try and predict games popularity like its some sort of stock market is way off. You cannot predict human thought on that scale, nobody knows whats gonna happen in the future, except perhaps Marty Mcfly.

mundus
mundus

I think WoW Cataclysm will be the most sold game this year.

King_Gamer19
King_Gamer19

It might be the best selling game on the 360 but CoD will be the best selling game mainly because it's a multiple system game