Guitar Hero III, Rock Band battle handicapped

The simExchange's Jesse Divnich suggests Activision's rhythm-game champion will score a solid victory over Harmonix's upstart.

This holiday season's rhythm game rumble will see original Guitar Hero publisher RedOctane competing against original Guitar Hero developer Harmonix at the behest of their new parent companies, as Activision's Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock and MTV Games' Rock Band vie for headliner status.

With Guitar Hero III released in North American stores late last month and Rock Band not set to arrive until November 20, simExchange analyst Jesse Divnich today summarized the prediction market's expectations for each title's performance.

The simExchange allows users to invest fake money in games and consoles based upon their sales expectations compared to a market expectation that is based on other users' investments. Talented prognosticators are rewarded with more money to put back into the market, which means their analysis is given more weight in determining what the market expectation for each game will be.

According to the simExchange's numbers and Divnich's analysis, the Xbox 360 version of Guitar Hero III will trounce Rock Band for Microsoft's console, which has seen its stock drop in recent weeks. Divnich noted that the simExchange had been projecting Rock Band for the Xbox 360 to sell as many as 250,000 copies in the US during the month of November, nearly on par with the 287,000 sales first-month sales figure expected of Guitar Hero III for the 360.

However, when news broke that individual Rock Band instruments would not be available at launch, forcing consumers to either buy the game on its own or with every instrument in a $169.99 bundle, simExchange users began lowballing their estimates. Since then, the market expectation of first-month sales for the Xbox 360 edition of Rock Band has fallen to 150,000. Lifetime sales of Guitar Hero III are also expected to beat those of Rock Band, with the Xbox 360 versions of each pegged to move and 2.23 million and 880,000, respectively.

As for other platforms, the simExchange lists a cross-section of titles based on demand from its userbase, and as a result had no data for Rock Band on the PlayStation 3 or the PlayStation 2. On the other hand, the market is currently expecting Guitar Hero III to sell lifetime totals of 1.76 million copies on the Wii, 2.11 million on the PS2, and 799,000 on the PS3. Divnich said the performance expected of the Wii edition is particularly impressive, noting that Wii editions of multiplatform titles--especially those from American publishers--have met with little success.

Yesterday, Activision released its quarterly financial figures and discussed the early success of Guitar Hero III. While it didn't talk about the number of copies each version sold, it did say that the title accounted for more than $115 million in first-week sales on all platforms.

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132 comments
super_slonik
super_slonik

MSG-Deathscythe, I agree with you 100% here! The fact that the game has Fall Out Boy can be something that makes me not want to buy this game. But... I'm still getting it.

The_Weekend
The_Weekend

Rockband better come in a full package ... my buddy and me are waitng to play this!!!!!

dj_k
dj_k

I for one dont want to buy Rock band on 360 untill the wireless guitar is available for it. I dont know If I will be able to resist though, the game looks like its going to be a blast.

N8A
N8A

This whole sim exchange sounds like an interesting concept. I wonder what their track record looks like.

phantom4567
phantom4567

Ummm....why some are not getting Rock Band just because MTV is involved in it? Is that a problem or something?

redskinStu
redskinStu

Why can't they make extra instruments available at launch? Stupid.

Crazy_McGee
Crazy_McGee

For Xmas, I can see the majority of parents buying the cheaper game bundle for their kids, which would be the GH3 bundle. Don't get me wrong, I think that RB does breathe new life into its list of features, but then again, Kane and Lynch was supposed to be the next best thing since sliced bread, and look what happened there! Don't say RB is better just yet..wait for the reviews, play it urself, and then decide. For now, I'll enjoy GH3 for what it is, and hopefully, I'll be able to play both at Xmas. Oh, and for anyone who says "why don't you just pick up a real guitar and play that?", go onto youtube and look up SArmstrOng; he'll more or less sum up any argument I could make. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_QI4rCsgKHo&feature=related# and go to the 7:30 mark.

Amadpineapple
Amadpineapple

Rock band > guitar hero III ITs a fact Drums Guitar and mic for 170> guitar for 90 Plus i own a les paul in real life i dont even want GHIII's guitat

chrono_wind
chrono_wind

Due to the start of the Rock Band release, less people WILL indeed get lower sales than the Guitat Hero Bundle. Even though Rock Band offers variety, parents of children would rather get Guitar Hero due to its lower price with only a guitar. Kids will often find themselves with not enough money to fund their Rock Band hope. Due to the fact that they want a game NOW and not save, they tend to end up spending money on a game that's less expensive with similar game play. So many times have I have to ask the kid this question: "Why don't you save up....?"

JasonEllzey
JasonEllzey

Rock band will blow guitar III out the water. GHIII has no depth to it . It is mine on release day!!!!!!!!!

Anteraan
Anteraan

Ok, so these wannabe stock traders are basing value on number of games sold, and then they call it a "sales analysis?" Here's a factor for you, morons - price. Selling 287k units of GHIII @ $90 per yields $25.83 million, while the estimated 150k units of RB @ $170 per yields $25.5 million. That's hardly a "trouncing", or even a "solid victory." In fact, if you figure 4 players per copy of RB vs. 2 players (being generous) per copy of GHIII, RB has more players. So much for an intelligent "analysis."

bagumbo21
bagumbo21

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

playstation_wii
playstation_wii

there's no good reason why the controllers aren't out at launch.

gtrfreak182
gtrfreak182

no one wants to spend the money. not to mention that guitar hero is a very popular, well-known title. rock band is so much better though.

the_one_finn
the_one_finn

hate to repeat but some STILL dont get it.. Rock Band is NOT the 'newcommer', it was developed by Harmonix, the same group that developed GH1 and 2, while GH3 was NOT developed by Harmonix, but by Red Octane, who was the publisher of the first two (but not the developer)

SpareJesus
SpareJesus

"wytefang Both of these games are vastly over-hyped. They're in danger of becoming the Maddens of the console gaming world. Just more of the same, slightly tweaked. Seriously, how long can you be fascinated by the same game?" Ask Dance Dance Revolution players.

thrashunreal
thrashunreal

Rock Band will be better but I saw this happening, and it's to be expected. There are many die hard GH fans at this point that'll probably think that Rock Band is a rip-off, when it is merely an improvement on the original formula.

Chief_Kuuni
Chief_Kuuni

chickenhounk's pic is really freaky, almost scary

zami77
zami77

To BigDaveyDogz the guitars from both guitar hero 2 and 3 will be compatatble with rock band. also i think evantually ill get both but im way more excited with rockband. i think it has a bunch of cool small things, such as creating ur own character, single player campaing with all instruments (not sure about bass but i hope it does) and being able to have a band online or in person. personnally im getting the full edition because its really not that bad. its around the price of 3 games, but i think this will provide tons of entertainment. im still even playing guitar hero 2!

xfactorstl
xfactorstl

This game is going to be amazing!!! The game is going to be way better than guitar hero for one big reason. You can experience the fun of rockin out with FRIENDS..... and that is the best thing about playing music or even faking music. Plain and Simple!!!!

blindsided82
blindsided82

I still say ChickenHounk's gamer pic freaks me out. What is that, a convulsing Ninja Turtle?

4quarters
4quarters

HELLOOOO!!! Where is the small mention of Rock Band costing TWICE as much? If it sells half as many it's a huge success!!!! the guitar looks way more real, downloadable albums, more REAl artists versions of the songs, Guitar Hero 3 which I love , has too many lame unknown songs, kudos to the final set and bosses.

ChickenHounk911
ChickenHounk911

I agree Rock Band will own. Full album downloads, enough said. The best way to buy this is get 3 other friends, split the cost, each of you pick an instrument and enjoy. Then all your friends have to do is buy a copy of the game alone. Thats it! Now when you all get together, you should have practiced alone and be good. It's this or just get your won box. $169.99 is not a lot considering what you are getting. I mean a lot of you spent $129.99 for Halo 3 and a little helmet!

DarkS2K
DarkS2K

Personally, I prefer the song list in rockband but I'm going to own both so I don't really care. The whole no separate instruments for sale thing really bothers me tho.

majin_vegeta300
majin_vegeta300

DUH! Established million selling franchise vs. a newcomer, kinda obvious. In terms of fun though, I think rock band has it because of the variety of instruments and the not as linear career mode

BigDaveyDogz
BigDaveyDogz

question. I am getting GH3 for my 360 which comes with the wireless guitar...and I will be getting Rock Band, which comes with a wired guitar. Now...Rock Band consists of guitar AND bass but only comes with one guitar. So my question is this: Will you be able to use the wireless GH3 guitar for either lead guitar or bass on Rock Band?

ThrillhouseLive
ThrillhouseLive

I will wait ofr the reviews before spending any money on a guitar game this year.

Gruug
Gruug

I think both games are about the same. My only concern is with the quality of the instruments, particularly the drum in Rock Band. I happened to see them in use and was not impressed with the drum for RB at all.

blindsided82
blindsided82

All I have to say is look at the Rock Band website, check out the setlist (good god it's great, especially those 80's/90's songs), check out the customization, and check out the functionality of the instruments, then say Rock Band will suck. I dare you. Iron Maiden "Run to the Hills", Bon Jovi "Wanted Dead or Alive", Soundgarden "Blackhole Sun", Metallica "Enter Sandman", Black Sabbath "Paranoid", Nirvana "In Bloom", Weezer "Say it Aint So", Beastie Boys "Sabotage", Faith No More "Epic", Blue Oyster Cult "Don't Fear the Reaper" (I NEED MORE COWBELL!!!), etc. Not to mention downloadable content down the road. Who know's what else will come our way? ...Nuff said.

the_one_finn
the_one_finn

'economist analysis' (of games) is bad enough, now we have 'fake' economy-anaysis? come on, how much further from the gaming community can we get? all that mattesr is 'is the game fun?' i say hell yeah. as for their analysis, GH3 probably will sell more because not everyone who wants Rock Band will be able to afford it when it first comes out (since the forced bundle deal), but when the game with individual instruments starts becoming available next year, just you watch, Rock Band sales will start to rise... big time. Rock On

blindsided82
blindsided82

As to all the complainers of Rock Band being un-bundled and pricey, just do what me and my friends are doing and split the cost. It's a game meant to be played with friends, so what's the sense in one person spending all that money on his/her own, unless they plan on playing all the instruments and singing by themselves...

kyo_tetsuei
kyo_tetsuei

Only gambling degenerates would look at 'handicapped' and think odds. Oh well. I think the one of the huge reasons that GH3 will get a lot of sales is because of Rock Band people purchasing it for the extra guitar. That's my opinion.

Zuul13
Zuul13

Good healthy compeition. That's what the consumers need! (NO SARCASM HERE)

Pedro7_2000
Pedro7_2000

I'm down with GH and will also be getting RB. Nothing like some loud music played by yours truly.

Da1ShrpSh0trGrl
Da1ShrpSh0trGrl

Timstuff, Don't worry about that. The game it's not out yet and the game itself will decide it's fate. Some people live to give negative feedback to comments that they do not agree with. Even if the person have a point. They feel they have the right to dictate what's right or wrong based on their opinions. The sad thing is that afterwards they will make a comment and give themselves thumbs up, just to make themselves look good. I am very trilled about the game coming out. As much as I was with GH3. Rock Band will do great. Plus they have the drums. :D

Timstuff
Timstuff

What's up with all the negative feedback ratings on comments that say anything even remotely positive about Rock Band? All the Guitar Hero fanboys who decided not to jump on the Rock Bandwagon are obviously a very sensitive bunch. Rock Band is a better game than Guitar Hero III, because it was made by the people who made the first two Guitar Heroes, and GH3 was not. That does not make Guitar Hero III a bad game, but it means Rock Band is a fuller experience. And guess what? You can use the GH3 Les Paul controller with Rock Band. You don't have to feel bad if you already bought Guitar Hero 3, because you can still make use of your investment if you buy Rock Band.

knightboat
knightboat

I find thiss whole rhythm game duel to be very ironic. On the one hand, I'm very underwhelmed by the tracklist on Harmonix's new game, but I'm impressed by the game's rock-conscious vibe (trademark Harmonix). On the other hand, despite the fact that GH3's initial tracklist is indisputably superior and flat-out amazing, everything else about the game is inferior to Harmonix's two offerings in the GH series. The whole game feels so.... out of touch with the music scene. I feel like the developers spent less time playing music and more time watching music videos. Even the quips on the loading screens are heroically unfunny and canned. And, of course, there is the one reason why I will never say I totally love Guitar Hero III: the Axe Body Spray guitar. That thing brought tears to my eyes. Horrible, horrible tears.

-HCMF-
-HCMF-

I'll put my "sim Money" where... Come on give us real news, not a story about some yahoo and his sim cash predicts the future story...

DanieltheDead
DanieltheDead

So some guy makes a prediction based on his knowledge of how to play with fake money, and for some reason that makes his ravings newsworthy. C'mon Gamespot, give us REAL, CREDIBLE news. Not asinine garbage like this.

southernzombie
southernzombie

to axel323.......... 1. Activision and Neversoft = same company 2. Red Octane is working with Activision on Guitar Hero now. Not harmonix 3. Harmonix is making Rock Band with MTV 4. Please get your facts straight before you "bless" us with your ignorant comments 5. Any questions- Please review 1-4

Sonicplys
Sonicplys

GHIII owns Rockband because GHIII doesnt have MTV or Fallout Boy.

axel323
axel323

Activion's Guitar Hero.. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHA That's funny. That's really funny. Harmonix Made Guitar Hero, Activision funded it. Now Neversoft develops Guitar Hero.. It's Harmonix's Guitar Hero, not Activision.

wytefang
wytefang

Both of these games are vastly over-hyped. They're in danger of becoming the Maddens of the console gaming world. Just more of the same, slightly tweaked. Seriously, how long can you be fascinated by the same game? Even worse they're nothing more than musical versions of that old 80's electronic game, Simon Says, if you really want to analyze 'em. LOL

dQuarters
dQuarters

Uhhh... so now a fake prediction market is news? This is a very odd post, and I bet this very article will end up in the simExchange and alter the prediction further. Then you can make it news again! Yaaaay!

keyser27
keyser27

guitar hero 3 plays like crap. huge disappointment despite the great songlist,

Ailius
Ailius

i heard rockband is getting delayed a month to canada cause of packaging, but i think gamespot should see if its bogus or not.

pinksandcocaine
pinksandcocaine

Let's just wait for some numbers instead of basing anything on this crap... I rolled my eyes every other paragraph.