GTAV unlikely until 2012 - Analyst

Janco Partners' Mike Hickey bullish on Take-Two, believes next installment in series could sell 16 million copies, generate $750 million.

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Take-Two recently announced it was shifting its fiscal year to end on March 31 in order to better put it in line with other major game publishers. Today, Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey issued an analyst note, which laid out some predictions for the New York-based publisher. Namely, that it will remain profitable even if the next Grand Theft Auto doesn't come out during its next fiscal year.

Don't expect the next GTA until 2012…at the earliest.

Hickey believes that Take-Two's 2011 fiscal year, which runs from April 1, 2011, until March 31, 2012, will feature two major game highlights: Max Payne 3 and L.A. Noire. He thinks those two games will lead a software lineup--which may also include the long-delayed Duke Nukem Forever--that can make the company profitable in a year without a GTA or a Red Dead game.

When GTAV does come out, "likely" in Take-Two's fiscal 2013 (April 2012-March 2013), Hickey believes it will be yet another blockbuster, selling upward of 16 million copies and generating over $750 million by itself. He predicts that year will also see the release of BioShock Infinite, which he estimates will sell over 4 million copies and $182 million in sales.

One major reason for the high sales expectations is the increased combined PlayStation 3/Xbox 360 installed based in the US, which he believes will be 41 million units by the end of calendar year 2010. That compares to just 14 million in April 2008, when Grand Theft Auto IV originally came out.

Discussion

678 comments
Zoomer30
Zoomer30

2000 never the way things seem to be going at RStar. Makes me wonder why they even bothered to release the trailer, if thats all the game is at this point: A trailer and some ideas. Could be they just wanted to get a nice jump in the stock price and decided to create a little "vapo-hype" (bet the SEC just LOVES it when compaines do that)

vivalatour
vivalatour

by the time GTA5 comes out it will be obsolete to the gaming world Rockstar in my opinion should not report new releases w/o having a date ? just like my buddy Max Payne ! and they'll also be taking my money for AGENT and I don't know much about the game except Rockstar does it and I sure hope they stick with 3rd person ! I want them NOW !

false408
false408

Really idk what to say but we juzt have to wait untill it comes out.yez many of us would like for it to be kinda like San Andreas juzt kinda but really it should have a diffrent story that would really b nice. I dnt no where im going with wat im saying really dnt no but hopefully it would be fun. That kinda what we all want rite So hopefully rockstarhave it.The real truth is that rockstar never had let us dwn befor so dnt doubt them bcuz they alwayz come out with surprising us so yea.

Linuxas
Linuxas

I Wonder, i have question: Rockstar better uses joystick or mouse creating games?, so how human can play it to be hardened, learning moving character, I'm not talking about sniper shots in to head or something its high math to hit that with joysticks you know(ofc you hit head after half past dead 1 person), idk if Rockstar creates games with joystick so stick with it :P, but i played GTA 3, Vice city, San Andreas, GTA4 on PC version, i tried to play on PS2 maybe its old but its hard to handled, so my mean is why not are GTA5 on PC???, i dont judge Xbox360 or PS3 that platforms are good, but if you want accurate playing PC version all the way.

hombreg1
hombreg1

i just hope it's better than gta iv... i mean, the fames was good... but when compared to san andreas... the realism factor was improved in gta vi and the fun factor was... a bit worsened, why would i like to fall on my face every time a car passes nearby?

ishan316
ishan316

I believe there's no way GTA 5's coming out before June 2012, R* wouldn't wanna spoil it for Max Payne 3. Well it shouldn't because I just today pre-ordered Max Payne 3 collectors' edition! Damn. Not much of an analyst but I think October 2012 would the most favorable time for a GTA 5 release.

aaron25m
aaron25m

who cares it will come out when Rockstar are good and ready, period

lp4live
lp4live

@recvx_freak You should base on facts and not just your opinion. If GTA IV was downgrade, then why did it sell some million (i don't remember how many) copies the first month? It don't have ANY similarity to GTA III, because in gta 3 you couldn't phone your friends or your friends phone you and play bowling, darts, drink, eat and other activities, or buy clothes.. There are too many details as well that made the game really closer to reality. As for the map, even though it is Liberty city, when you play it you will hardly find any similarity to gta 3's map. You probably never played gta iv and you say all these you said. It ends that gta iv wasn't downgrade at all, but UPgrade, they only removed some of the features that san andreas had. Look at the facts first and then make an opinion, nothing of what you said is true. And "pure GTA fans will never like GTA IV " that's you opinion too. I've played all of the GTAs from GTA I to GTA IV and I like all of them and play them, because i like IV it means i am not a "pure" GTA fan? And there is no such crap, either you are a fan or not.

GTA-Like_Fan
GTA-Like_Fan

@recvx_freak GTA 4 wasnt a downgrade, yes they removed a few things but this game really was next gen.They improved every mechanics of the game while creating an epic realist world.If we follow your logic in GTA 2 they had Liberty city, Vice city AND San Andreas so was GTA 3 a downgrade too ?

mr_pink88
mr_pink88

@recvx_freak Fine I guess I'm not a pure GTA fan..... whatever the hell that is.....

recvx_freak
recvx_freak

@mr_pink88 If you found san andreas crap then you aren'y a GTA fan.....and thats whay my theory is....pure GTA fans will never like GTA IV cuz that game was a downgrade....not 1 but by 2 parts.......they literally took the game back to the times of GTA III....it was like GTA with better graphics....oh look. the city was the same too :)

kokihero
kokihero

i would love if they made GTA V Map : all the world ( all continents ) cars , airplanes , bikes , bicycles , helicopters , parachutes , free roaming , skates , skiing , snow & much more . with the best graphics . it will be the best game all over the world . ofcourse multiplayer game on games for windows live . i hope game like that .

ToyoGrip
ToyoGrip

I would love if they made GTA V like SA that big free roam, airplanes, costumize cars, parachutes... and much more. I dont mean a new version of SA with better graphics... but yes a new world with a new story. That would be awsome.

grasshopper6
grasshopper6

remake of SA sounds good with current graphics

generous473
generous473

how about GTA 5 has the storyline of someone breaking out of prison and going on a mission to find the person who got him in there? That would be great. They should bring back gangs (with good AI). Or maybe they should make a storyline of being a undercover cop and trying to infiltrate all the gangs in Brazil or something

Zero_Kull
Zero_Kull

@justicethemen Now! That would be a really badass game \m/

justicethemen
justicethemen

they should remake GTA:SA but with the ghraphics from GTA:IV

someGAMEcream
someGAMEcream

I don't mind the wait, I just want the best GTA ever. Il be plenty occupied with LA Noire and Max Payne 3.

xxpoo521xx
xxpoo521xx

I would love to see a sideways view of Chicago, there needs to be a completly new city. Instead of making the game map huge i think they should concentrate on smaller details like watching a football game at Soldier's Field, but one thing they should definatly stay clear from is having a ghetto protagonist like in SA. I think they should go more for an everyman living in the midwest with a going postal like story. Also i agree they need to put back in the level up system.

Amauris96
Amauris96

Bring back the San Andreas style with the RPG system (Running increases stamina or how fast you run, Building strength, car skill, gun accuracy..etc.) Also I loved the whole Gangster scene in San Andreas, maybe a modern-day gang story? Or something even better.. A serial Killer, Let's you perform executions and the more you train on muscle and skills the more you'll succeed.That'd be awesome.

huevosbenedicto
huevosbenedicto

My prediction is that it'll come out May 2012. I reckon it'll be in Vice City, or at a push Chicago, as if they're going to do San Andreas they'll wait until 8th generation consoles so they can put 3 massive cities and countryside onto the same map, which isn't do-able at the moment.

mimicus
mimicus

I don't know why everyone is limiting their choices to Liberty, Vice, and San Andreas. How bout a new city/state/country to explore? Wouldn't that be even better?

painterkilla
painterkilla

GTA IV should be in vice city. Just think about all them neons and flashy cars in HD. Wait, that's TBOGT without beaches...

Tazz707
Tazz707

I don't care when it comes out, as long as it's not in Liberty City. I've had enough of that god damn city. It should be in Vice, or San Andreas, but preferably Vice.

BossmanX
BossmanX

I would love to see a SA style game, but remember that GTA3 then Vice city slowly built on what was possible on the PS2 and then toward the end of the system life we got the ultimate that the PS2 could handle. I think that as long as the next GTA adds content and gives some new places to explore I can be happy, even if it isn't 3 full cities plus enough wide open space to add hours to exploration and free roaming. And then put it all together into an expansive multi-region map like SA

Ultra-Dms
Ultra-Dms

I think most of the ppl that are fans of GTA series like me would want a GTA San Andreas style, of course a new city and stuff GTA:SA was really good one of the best games i think. We would like a new kind of version of GTA:SA.

AliRboy
AliRboy

if it was in tokyo or china people would speak chinese or japanese to make the game reasonable. it just wouldnt be if tokyo spoke english. SO does eveyone here speak japanese. maybe a"stories" spinoff for GTA:SAN ANDREAS i mean.......think of it "GTA:SAN ANDREAS STORIES"

TheMarkus182
TheMarkus182

and maybe like some jobs like u can be an airline pilot or train person and you can travel other countries or cities...

t14d88
t14d88

plane control , jetpack, train control, taller buildings( maybe make it dubai), attack dogs for police, flamethrower etc . and make a black character this time, no offense to anyone but they are the funniest people.

TheMarkus182
TheMarkus182

Ok Please make Gta V With planes which you can control like you get in the plan and fly anywhere with a parachute and get some more cheats plzzzz...

MrcMike
MrcMike

I know how R* can make more money than $750 million. REMAKE SAN ANDREAS PLZZZZ!!!

Giodude93
Giodude93

It wouldn't be called that though,right? Like GTA 3 was followed by Vice City. I thought the roman numeral only increased with the console generation. But before then I'm hoping for an HD GTA collection,like the Sly or God of War collection.

Re-Skull
Re-Skull

Hope it getting whole gta series cities , towns ... or ... i mean it contains a real big country like red dead redemption ... and a better mission lining , health lining , arrest lining ... * i mean it is not a exact good point you doing all missions as much as you want... * the health could be better than this ... going to hospital ... but not for ever. after a bunch of deads you must goin' six feet under !!! *** arrest could having a little game about to runaway or sneaking out of jail and i really thought about this one very long before :D*** also all of GTA series was my fave :ok:

RealOG615
RealOG615

make a hd verison of gta San Andreas.

Jshaw71
Jshaw71

IMO, R* forget about gta v, make bully 2, it's a great game, and deserves a sequel, do eet... plz?

Supperdude9
Supperdude9

GTA4 was a big disappointment for me. *cough*ITSYOURCOUSINROMANLETSGOBOWLINGEVENTHOUGH ICALLEDYOU5MINUTESAGO*cough* I mean, most of the game felt like a chore. Make no mistake, I did play though it, but it felt more like work than a game. Half of the game was training missions, each telling you one thing that you can do in the game....ugh. But I digress. Red Dead Redemption didn't have that problem. That game redeemed Rockstar for me, and I am looking forward to L.A. Noire. So I'm gonna sit and wait for how this plays out.

coylenintendo
coylenintendo

well if it's as good as GTA4 or even better then it's worth the wait.

pphatmat
pphatmat

GTA Antartica or GTA Canada or maybe GTA China

arun_pullat
arun_pullat

They should have a GTA Bangalore. Timed missions would involve getting from point A to B in 90 minutes and you would lose health every time your ride went over a pothole.

FidelSarcastro
FidelSarcastro

oh well I guess we will just have to make due with paying, sleeping with, running over and robbing the corpse of hookers in GTA IV until then. Oh you all know you all are guilty of it at one time or another.

Sendmn23
Sendmn23

wait wait I still havent finished gta 4...

firehawk998
firehawk998

If the mission structure and type of mission variety are like the BoGT and the old GTA than this is great news for me.

banana23man
banana23man

I want to go back to vice city! bring back the awesome 80s soundtrack and nostalgic environment :D They could do the same thing they did in GTA4, reinventing Libery City from GTA3 and LCS.

KrazzyDJ
KrazzyDJ

Grand Theft Auto is best when set in the modern era (80s and above). I don't suppose there's any need to go back to the 50s. Let Mafia handle it. Besides, if R* does make a game based on that era what will the makers of Mafia do ???

laltoofan
laltoofan

I keep thinking about cool ideas, stories and areas that R* should use for GTA, mainly places I know, which would probably suck to be honest considering I live in backwardsville! But I stop wishing now cos each time they bring a new game out it is totally outstanding (Story, Characters, setting etc. etc.)!

laltoofan
laltoofan

@vega13mv Haven't you played Mafia 2?

SPBoss
SPBoss

@Eman810 cops don't need to carry guns in the uk to have authority, unlike trigger happy cops in america, it would make for better unique wanted levels. 1* = Cops use melee weapons 2* = Cops call for backup and use taser 3* = Police Dog Units + Helicopter 4* = Specialist armed police unit 5* = Army dispatched 6* = SAS,SBS,SFSG (British Special Forces, Boat+Air) Extreme 7* = Parachute Regiment, Royal Marine Commandos, Royal Air Force Elites, Army Air Corps, Royal Navy Fleet Because right now the levels aren't too distinguishable and are pretty generic, its just higher level = more cops & fbi/swat. That's pretty boring and I have provided why somewhere like London could offer so much more variety.. variety = good