GTAV to sell 'at least' 18 million units - Analyst

Wedbush Securities' Michael Pachter estimates Rockstar's still-unannounced game has already cost publisher $80 million to develop, puts Max Payne 3 creation cost on par.

by

Technically, Grand Theft Auto V isn't official yet. Neither Rockstar Games nor parent publisher Take-Two have announced any details concerning a follow-up to 2008's top-rated game. However, that's not stopping one analyst from going on record and prognosticating a rosy sales future for it.

Pachter believes GTAV will be a big, big game.

Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter today issued an investor note that stated his belief that Grand Theft Auto V will sell "at least 18 million units." The industry diviner also said the game could sell as many as 24 million units if it maintains historical attach rates.

Though Grand Theft Auto V has not been formally announced yet, the evidence of its existence is mounting. Yesterday, Take-Two reported its latest quarterly earnings, with its April 2012-March 2013 fiscal year to produce $2 earnings per share. This guidance is well above that of the publisher's in-progress fiscal year, and it led one analyst to ask whether it can be assumed that a new Grand Theft Auto will arrive during the quarter. (Take-Two chairman and CEO Strauss Zelnick dodged the question.)

A Rockstar source told GameSpot in June that development on Grand Theft Auto V was "well under way," with a 2012 release date seeming "pretty likely." The source also said the game was having the final touches--like minigames--put on it.

Also in Pachter's note to investors was an estimated development cost for Grand Theft Auto V and Max Payne 3, which was not addressed in Take-Two's financial report yesterday. Pachter estimates that Grand Theft Auto V has already cost Take-Two $80 million to develop thus far.

As for Max Payne 3, Pachter said that by the time it comes out, it's possible Take-Two will have invested about $80 million in the project. If the game launches in the publisher's current fiscal year, the analyst expects it will be able to post a modest profit with about 3 million copies sold.

Discussion

283 comments
Richy_G
Richy_G

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

szekiRobert
szekiRobert

gtaV it's gonna be with a modern day (2012) Vice City setting

aRealWalrus
aRealWalrus

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

aaronfhff123
aaronfhff123

@GeigerdolylWodd God of War was a borefest compared to San Andreas. I was amazed that game did so well with SA out. I was also amazed Halo 1 did so well when GTA3 was out for the ps2(GTA3 made Halo boring). Gta blows away all games.

aaronfhff123
aaronfhff123

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

samster97
samster97

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

samster97
samster97

@opmeteor419 You are absolutely right. What you have just said isn't an opinion, it's an actual fact, and the only reason you got your thumbs down is because of all the 360 huggers that don't like to hear the truth. People are saying they want next gen consoles, but what they don't understand is thst the PS3 already is a next gen console. If game developers didn't have to work on dumbing down games to fit the 360, then the PS3 would be living up to it's full potential by now. The only reason the gaming industry is moving along so slowly is because of the xbox. I'm sorry but that's just the truth. Everyone is saying they want next gen console. If you ask me, the best way to get much much better games in terms of graphics and engines is to simply get rid of the xbox. Now I know that won't happen, and I know I'll get loads of thumbs down from xbox huggers but I don't care because if every xbox in the world just suddenly exploded then you would realise that the games will be better. Look at all the PS3 exclusives, and just TRY and compare them to Xbox 360 exclusives. LBP, InFamous 2, Uncharted, MGS4, Gran Turismo 5, all games which have unbelievable graphics because the developers don't have to tune them down so they can run on the Xbox. The Xbox 360 has no chance against the PS3. Just watch when the 720 comes out and the PS3's graphics and performance still match it even though it was made the gen before.

lilhinkle4
lilhinkle4

To all you PC nerds out there chill the hell out! GTA IV wasn't announced on the PC right away either. PC didn't see GTA IV until a few months after GTA IV came out on consoles. If it takes a couple months after GTA V comes out on consoles for it to come out on PC, at least you're still getting it.

qqxLV
qqxLV

Ok what?! You rip off PC fans just like that? GTA on PC is way more better than on consoles - and mods complete it till this very day.

ratsinthesewer
ratsinthesewer

i cant believe it wont be out for PC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

aRealWalrus
aRealWalrus

A game Rockstar makes that does well? Am I supposed to be surprised?

aaronfhff123
aaronfhff123

@Nightrain76 GTA4 was lacking compared to San Andreas but it is still one of the better games to come out on modern consoles. The campaign alone is more intense, fun and epic than any COD or BFBC game. Gta4 is a great game all around.

nomorepain4u
nomorepain4u

@Nightrain76 you are 100% right man. gta 4 was a dissapointment. they stripped down almost everything you could do in free roam and made a fairly fun campaign and called it gta 4. to me gta is all about free roam and i hope they pack the city/map with tons of stuff to do. i want it to be exactly like san andreas, that map was so big and it had so much stuff to do.

Nightrain76
Nightrain76

After the disappointing GTAIV, Rockstar has one final chance with me to put out a high calibre GTA that has just as much content as San Andreas. They skimped so bad on GTAIV. There is no way that game deserve a 10/10.

GeigerdolylWodd
GeigerdolylWodd

@SiLenTWarrior29 Actually you could switch to a firstperson view of the world in GTA IV but only if you were riding a motorcycle or scooter.I found it out accidentally while I was riding one. I wonder why they wouldn't let you keep the camera perspective when you got off it. And no I was not referring to the any of the mods. This is in game and its not a hack. From what I've seen there are mods to always be in firstperson. To be clear that's not what this is its firstperson in vehicles only but not to the extent of the mods because it was always coded in game this way.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vsyhlGR1SG0

GeigerdolylWodd
GeigerdolylWodd

@Jakeslikescakes The main reason I bought a PS2 was so I could play GTA:SA. I never bought another game for it. But I seem to remember renting God of War 1.

KILLEDbCRITICAL
KILLEDbCRITICAL

@reavin81 Really,gonna have a Blue ray drive?no 3RL?I just hope they fix the total lack of contrast of x360 because every f**ing game looks like a damn cartoon.

reavin81
reavin81

@opmeteor419 the 360 came out two to three years b4 the ps3 when the new one come out next year its going to smoke the ps3 once more

Kooken58
Kooken58

@rigzzsy ps3 maybe....360 definitely not. Sure being able to put a lil more on the DVDs will help....but that doesnt mean the visuals will be any better, or really the size of the game will be much bigger.

psycho75
psycho75

@opmeteor419 indeed,nd u have been thumb downed...i guess the truth hurts.

opmeteor419
opmeteor419

j0abell if you think ps3 is ever remotely close to its limits you obviously know nothing about ps3, it was designed to outlast 360 and the next xbox. gta should be ps3 exclusive once more so they dont have to keep dumbing it down for the 360 and make the best game they possibly can

alexnollent
alexnollent

I'll be buying 17 million of those copies

Jakeslikescakes
Jakeslikescakes

Ur_Daddy_711 I couldn't agree more! Back on PS grand theft auto was so fun. Then GTA III came along and it was groundbreaking and amazing. To me Vice City had the best plot and coolest city design. San Andreas was also sweet and had a lot of new stuff. GTA IV was great, but different than the others in many ways, like driving, etc. I'm curious what this one will be more like.

KaizerJinn
KaizerJinn

i'm looking forward to this game. i'm a HUGE GTA fan. ^_^

Ur_Daddy_711
Ur_Daddy_711

2 years ago, all I heard was "Grand Theft Auto IV sucks monkey b@ll$!" Now, that V is closing in, all the haters come crawling back. Never dog my favorite franchise!

rigzzsy
rigzzsy

all these people calling for next-gen, we haven't even seen the full extent of what 360 and ps3 can do yet, give it a break

Maleek2K8
Maleek2K8

Rockstar is crazy, great developer! And you gotta love take two for giving them the time and money they need to make a quality product instead of rushing them like activision or EA would do.

Nightrain50
Nightrain50

Rockstar is the ****. Can't wait for GTA V and the next Red Dead game.

bradocki
bradocki

Just finished playing GTA4 yesterday morning 08/10/11, and amazingly it was the first game i got for my ps3. Like a bunch of people i thought the game was too long and i had lots of other games to play...What a mistake!!! I couldn't help but feel sad. That work of art was coming to an end, the gripping story and the characters i developed such love for them would be in my days of playing no more. Let this be a lesson and a statement for me, to never let a GTA game sitting on my collection again, and to thank everyone at Rockstar for creating such a piece of heaven... Gonna cry now and wait tight for the next one...

psycho75
psycho75

@warhawk-geeby right on,very well said too...

survivor9712
survivor9712

it would be awesome if they put some RPG elements into the game . A sense of progress in games is addicting .

j0abell
j0abell

Thing is, with next-gen consoles, even if they announced them tomorrow, it'd be a year before they hit the stores, and then another year before they'd be a reasonable price and have a good number of games to play on them. So do we need next gen consoles now? Maybe not. but another two years from now?

psycho75
psycho75

@aaroonfhff123 yeah totally agree,GTA games are incredible fun and stylish,i absolutely love GTA4 dark acid sense of humor,making fun of our society with a right dose of irony,and of course the extremely well constructed characters nd story...what is not to like?

aaronfhff123
aaronfhff123

@frankblack789 grand theft auto games are an art form too. I find people who hate GTA just rampage and get bored, they dont have the attention span to play through the highly entertaining and witty story of GTA games. Not only are the GTA stories fun but the missions are a blast to play. Having played through every GTA game since 3, I can safely say that GTA staff has the most intelligent game makers out there! Every GTA game emulates our screwed up society in a very funny and intelligent way that no other game has. To top it off, the gameplay and variety of gameplay is just so much fun. Play through the story of GTA4 or Red Dead Redemption and tell me these games are trash or not artwork!

aaronfhff123
aaronfhff123

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

warhawk-geeby
warhawk-geeby

@j0abell I've just looked it up on wikipedia.. you have just opened up a whoooole world of conspiracy to me! :o

frankblack789
frankblack789

@AuronAXE first of all, there is absolutely nothing wrong with the current generation of consoles. if anything, we should force console makers to find ways to extend the lives of consoles we buy so that we can truly get our money's worth for it & keep them out of landfills for that much longer. second, the grand theft auto series is a STAIN on the video game industry. it is because of horrible games like this that the video game community does not have the respect it deserves. video games are an art form & a beloved hobby of many gamers. the grand theft auto games are TRASH!

AuronAXE
AuronAXE

I just wish we had a new generation of consoles already. I mean, GTAV will be great, I already see it, but by now its obvious nearly everything being released today has to be streamlined so it can run perfectly on the 360. And that's a really small limit in todays hardware standards. PS3 fares slightly better but its nothing out-of-this-world in terms of multiplatforms. Exclusives, sure, they blow 360 away. PC remains on top, but again, crappy console ports. It's 2011, with the PC running games like The Witcher 2 with ubersampling, which simulates up to 100x anti-aliasing. The 360 came out in 2005, and has minimal DirectX support. That's a huge difference in performance and game size.

j0abell
j0abell

Is all that money they're spending on it going to make up for it being designed for 6 year old consoles? Do they even have much room to make it better than GTAIV on a PS3? Seemed like they were already pushing it to its limits.. @warhawk-geeby you type all that, but then call Niko Russian? :p

theo303
theo303

I hope they make this more like San Andreas. GTA4 lasted me about a month, then got boring. GTA SA lasted me years. There was so much to do, and the RPG element was great (letting your guy get really fat or trying to get him fit enough to beat the triathlons).

warhawk-geeby
warhawk-geeby

@Brokenhope69 That's fair enough, that's your opinion. But I'm agreeing with psycho75. Not once whilst playing on my Playstation did I encounter any problems.. not once. I don't know whether these glitches were popping up on the 360, but by the looks of some of these comments it must have been the case (not a console argument by the way.. just saying). And I bought the game on a midnight launch - prior to any updates. When I think back to GTAIV I think of all the small details - coming out of your windscreen if you have a head on collision, going for a drink at a bar and then playing darts whilst drunk with Roman. Cars spewing smoke and back-firing! The game both realistic and fun. As for the humour in the game I think the characters were believable (that's probably where your missing out on the 'fun' aspect). Instead of having some over the top ego who is larger than life Nico was a brilliant character and totally believable, his Russian wit often shining through. The time when you first met Vladimir in Roman's taxi company was hilarious! I've been playing the games since I was 10, way back in 1997 - and not once have the games disappointed me. If you don't like them then stick those you love, but don't go hating something which you seemingly don't fully understand!

Jettero-Heller
Jettero-Heller

@suikogaiden: Worked well enough for GTAIV didn't it?

Kooken58
Kooken58

I was hoping we wouldnt be seeing the next GTA until the next gen consoles...honestly there is really only so much they can do with the oudated hardware on these....Prolly wont be seeing much graphical improvement or increased map size or anything @datniccah187 On current consoles? i doubt that unless xbox has like 3 disks or something or they dumb down alot of stuff.

footballracer
footballracer

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

devrindare
devrindare

@trodeback thanks for information, & what do you think why do you get a negative point in your comment and who might give it?

solidsnake7882
solidsnake7882

GTA IV was not a failure on PC. It launched with tons of bugs yes but it runs fine on most PCs it is just a demanding game. I can run it at 50 fps solid with no issues. And this will come out for PC likely at the same time as consoles.