Call of Duty: Black Ops could sell over 18 million - Analyst

Janco Partners' Mike Hickey says Cold War-era shooter could generate $818 million; Sledgehammer pegged as Modern Warfare 3 developer; Tencent as COD Online partner in China.

For months, Call of Duty: Black Ops has been preordained as a best seller, with GameStop saying in October that it was poised to break preorder records. Now analysts are beginning to weigh in on the game's potential, with one professional prognosticator saying the game could nearly match sales of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2.

Black Ops will be big…but not quite as big as Modern Warfare 2.

In a note sent out to analysts this morning, Janco Partners' Mike Hickey said he believes that Black Ops could sell over 18 million units, generating $818 million. That's less dollar-wise than the $1 billion-plus generated by Modern Warfare 2 and 2 million units shy of the 20 million units the game had sold as of mid-June.

Hickey also had some predictions for two other Call of Duty products. He believes the first-person shooter confirmed for the latter half of 2011 yesterday will indeed be Modern Warfare 3. However, instead of Infinity Ward developing the game, as it was as of May, Hickey believes that the project has been passed over to newly founded studio Sledgehammer Games. The Redwood City, California, shop had been billed as working on an action adventure spin-off of the Call of Duty series, but a job listing revealed in May that it was working on a first-person shooter.

The analyst also had some thoughts on Call of Duty Online, the massively multiplayer project being developed in Asia. He believes the game will launch next year and has the potential to generate $100 million during its first year alone.

He explained, "We're beginning to favor [Chinese Internet portal] Tencent as the eventual operator of COD online in China considering their relative expertise running an item based sales model, game genre expertise (Crossfire operator), the successful regulatory navigating of genre specific concerns and the apparent callous attitude from Blizzard developers on working with Activision franchises, which we believe eliminates Call of Duty code development cooperating for Battle.net integration."

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Discussion

691 comments
rahulgamer0007
rahulgamer0007

@rooster0567 thankx 4 aggryin wit me.i just completed the black ops.I can guaranty thak its never gona rest u 4 a 1 single moment.the story is awsome.grafix is good.environment is super cool,spacial y the snowy mountaints of rusia,and the jungle in viatnam.M in love with this game.

robayeit
robayeit

@MasonChaos maybe u should actually read what i said i have played them but not owned them, y cause they aint worth the money, and after what they did to MW2 by re-releasing old maps into new map packs and slap a 1200MS points on the tag is extortion, learn to read!!!

manu97416
manu97416

are you guys crazy youre saying that releasing this epic multiplayer paradise game every year is bad ?! man i love it keep up the good work activision

natenation87
natenation87

I like the COD games but slow down. Do they really need to release a new one every year.

godzillavskong
godzillavskong

Why stop at 18 million? How about .........1 trillion? mwahahah

MURDERAH
MURDERAH

[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]

xHawky
xHawky

4 CoD based games in less than 2yrs...I'm finished Activision, ciao!

MasonChaos
MasonChaos

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

MURDERAH
MURDERAH

bunch of people here need to drink some cranberry juice.... [.]

MURDERAH
MURDERAH

COD series >> your existence

MasonChaos
MasonChaos

I've been messing around on the multiplayer maps offline and I have one thing to say.. "they are huuuuuuuuuge." They seem like they would really be fun but I am worried about campers.

kobyjordan7
kobyjordan7

@themidgethotel Lol yep! Its something about those bad games that bring them back from the dead!

MasonChaos
MasonChaos

@robayeit Wow, could this kid flame any more? Bashing CoD games but says he hasn't even played them. And that Racing games take more skill..... Are you serious? When is the last time you've seen a racing game in a MLG circuit? Do you have trouble with which trigger is gas and which one is brake? Racing games are funs but unless you're playing a Simulation they are fairly easy. You're comment was so embarassing to yourself that I don't even have enough room to respond to what you said.

muppen
muppen

No thanks, I've had enough of CoD games now...

spocheld
spocheld

Midnight can't come fast enough for this game! Treyarch knows how to make a fun and addictive multiplayer game, I almost want to call in sick tomorrow to play it all day long!

Takeno456
Takeno456

I really hope Black Ops is more like World at War and less like Modern Warfail 2. WaW was my favorite of the series.

OSJ-1987
OSJ-1987

We know all of you Halo fanboys will be in line tomorrow to get your copy of Black Ops. Don't pretend.

Johny_47
Johny_47

I'm sure I'll probably get ALOT of thumbs down like I usually do =P but I honestly don't like Call of Duty anymore, very... generic but I think this does look better than Modern Warfare 2 and I'm sure it'll sell even more than it too. A couple of friends are very excited for it's midnight release here in the UK =/

campbell153
campbell153

My Bro is on XBL, when i spoke to him earlier about me not caring about Black Ops and he was all like "why?.. its gonna be sick" i was like " coz it is just another CoD... it aint nothing special anymore" I would rather spend my time getting more achievements from diffrerent games than waste my time on CoD... sweating it out coz of some camping fool quick scoping you as soon as you pass wind! and yes... there will still be camping and all the other rubbish!

azurik15
azurik15

Save money.Crysis 2 and Rage coming.

SbT16
SbT16

there is technically not much wrong with mw2, its more the community. black ops will be interesting, i bet a lot of people here say they arent gonna get it but will end up getting it. Nothing compares to cod4, no, but it should be interesting to see how the game is accepted, and everything ive personnally complained about so far, has been fixed or at least somewhat justified. And wager match looks sick

rando22
rando22

I may not buy but will be sure to rent.

LondonGamer986
LondonGamer986

I won't be buying, haven't liked a COD game since COD4, all the releases after that have been a dissapointment to me.

A_RandomGuy
A_RandomGuy

@TheDere No I was talking about the new COD announced for 2011

Ladiesman17
Ladiesman17

Activision released COD with different studio(s) aren't they??. Sledgehammer, Treyarch, & Infinity Ward. each studio(s) released COD title(s) every 2 years (like most studio(s) do). ;) but when it's failed ex: "short single campaign", "no dedicated server for PC", Activision get all the crap, but when this IP succeeded ex: "get all the hype from users" or "become market leader & got huge profit" Infinity Ward get all the praise, am I wrong?? :evil: what the hell with you people. Infinity Ward & Activision is ONE.. both doing sucks decision but at the same time they could make amazingly overhyped FPS and It's become huge success. very unfair if you judging / treat them differently :evil: now it's about Treyarch Black Ops they need proving their quality.

MasonChaos
MasonChaos

@casey_mcqueen They prob won't donate their earnings from the game but they did earn a bunch of money last thursday with the big Metallica concert. I think they earned it for wounded soldiers.

casey_mcqueen
casey_mcqueen

$818 Million?! Wow, I hope these guys donate a portion to charity or a cause that helps people a tad bit less fortunate.

MasonChaos
MasonChaos

If you say this game is just MW2 then you're simple minded. There are only a handfull of similarities like that it's a FPS or acouple weapons and perks. Otherwise, prove me wrong and support your whinning.

pdfanboy
pdfanboy

I've NEVER bought and played a Call of Duty game, and this one is no exception.

MehowPwned
MehowPwned

I could care less... Black ops is crap just like Modern warefare 2 I love CoD 4 It felt fresh... but this doesn't BF 2 was the best FPS and will still be

fmos9
fmos9

Copy and Paste? New Setting, completely overhauled progression system, more unique yet still realistic weapons, care package weapons, new killstreaks (RCXD FTW!), sure the core gameplay may not be drastically different, but Treyarch is doing a hell of alot more to push the game forward than Infinity Wards embarassing sequel.

StarlightHunter
StarlightHunter

I don't understand why anyone would spend £40 for a copy and paste attempt called a game. It looks exactly the same as MW2 Personally it's a waste of money. COD games are overrated, simple as.

OSJ-1987
OSJ-1987

Halo: Reach better than this? I don't think so. Halo stopped being great after 2. Halo 3 was pretty good but a step back, and Reach sucks. Spamming DMR's, anyone? MW2 was extremely unbalanced, glitchy, and laggy as well, so both series have really taken a step back lately. That being said, I enjoyed WaW and have this game preordered. I hope it's great. If it's not, what can you do? All I know is that it will be better than sitting on Reach spamming a DMR against someone else who is doing the same and randomly winning/losing gunfights, being continuously TK'd for the sniper rifle on Hemorrhage, or having two guys sit there and shoot charged plasma pistol shots into your revenant so you can't move because you got to it first and they wanted to drive it. When I play online, I want to worry about working with my team to beat my opponents, not worry about having to beat both my opponents and my team at the same time.

random3905
random3905

this game could be worth 10 cents! thats a world record for cod! i dont see why a human would shell out $60 for this.

kargion
kargion

Buying black ops because MW 2 was utter garbage.

XanderZane
XanderZane

Maybe, but I doubt it. I have no plans on buying Black Ops anytime soon. Activision is flooding the market with all these CoD games. One every 2-3 years is enough.

robayeit
robayeit

@MasonChaos ah another FPS fan boy who thinks his a hardcore gamer, at least with racing you know what ur getting, with COD, and the majority of FPS games, u get the same game in another disguise, no story just shoot something, at least in a racing game u need some sort of skill. and before any1 jumps on the i hate activision band wagon i have not owned 1 of there games since Tony Hawk 2, which was rubbish, and why is that cause none of there games appeal. They are like one hit wonder get a first big hit then stick to that same repeat in another dress over and over again, and it bores ppl who actually posses a brain, and ppl who actually want to be challenged. They not even sorted out the cheats on the last 2 games so even if you have tried to play it, like i have at my mates u get bombarded by imbeciles who just play this garbage. So b4 calling urself a hardcore gamer maybe u should try a game with depth to it

Saije
Saije

More of the same... These done to death formulaic genre romps are getting so stale, even WITH the MP component, I just don't care anymore.

Hurvl
Hurvl

It would be nice if no one gets disappointed if Black Ops fail to live up to these overhyped predictions, but from experience I know that if reality doesn't meet the expectations of speculation, then reality is the one to blame.

Th3_Gray_Ghost
Th3_Gray_Ghost

Yawn........For me COD and all first person shooters got stale with MW2. I got it at launch and maybe put 10 hours into it total. This is maybe a rental like Halo Reach was for the campaign. Are any good games getting released soon like Marvel VS Capcom or Gran Turismo? Enough with this, I'm going to play some more Super Meat Boy. ;)

icehawk001987
icehawk001987

After watching the gamespot multiplayer preview I'm sure I'll get it just most likely not til next weekend.

spooky102
spooky102

Don't know, I'm gonna pass on this game. Not really interested.

PixelAddict
PixelAddict

Can't wait to see what Treyarch have done with the zombie mode. That was my favorite part of WaW by miles.

Ravenlore_basic
Ravenlore_basic

IT is on of the top selling shooters. Just saying. So peoples experience and opinions do not matter.

japanesegoth
japanesegoth

the only reason i'd buy this is because people will migrate away from the current call of duty to play the new one...though i'll probably pass on this one.

Neosword
Neosword

Sledgehammer developing MW3 would be interesting, but I'm not sure if that's a good thing.

gesloc
gesloc

Just bought it on Steam. Looking forward to it. I am still playing CODMW2 online and cant wait to play Black Ops online. Hoping for less run and slash kills.

eriktkire
eriktkire

@o0MrCheesy0o Why? Because the TV commands them to play CoD... and so they must obey. Casual gamers are just another flavour of the mindless consumer masses. As much as I hate what CoD has become, nobody can deny the fact that the marketing behind it is brilliant.