Bungie's next could sell 20 million - Analyst

Michael Pachter believes move to multiplatform could turn studio's Activision series into a Call of Duty-size megafranchise; next Call of Duty sales pegged at 13 million.

Last Friday, Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey predicted Call of Duty: Black Ops could sell as much as 18 million units--2 million shy of Modern Warfare 2's 20 million-unit milestone. The same day, one of Hickey's colleagues made an even bolder prediction for a franchise that hasn't even been unveiled yet.

Bungie's next game is all but assured to be a blockbuster.

In his note responding to Activision Blizzard's earnings, Wedbush's Michael Pachter outlined 2011's Activision lineup. In it, he addressed the faint possibility that Bungie's next game could be released next year.

Said Pachter, "We are especially excited about the new game from Bungie (not formally announced for 2011, but a possibility), as the studio has a long history of proven blockbusters. We think that a multiplatform game from Bungie has the potential to deliver sales on par with the most successful franchises in history and conceivably could sell as many as 20 million units." He quickly added there has been no sign that Bungie's next title will arrive next year.

When Activision and Bungie announced their 10-year exclusivity deal in April, they underlined the fact the franchise would be developed for "all platforms," including the PlayStation 3. Previously, the studio's Halo games were exclusive to the Xbox and Xbox 360, with Halo: Reach selling 3.3 million units on the latter platform in just two weeks.

Pachter also weighed in on the Call of Duty first-person shooter, which Activision confirmed will be released in late 2011. Though it is possible that two Call of Duty games could be released next year, the analyst believes that if there is only one, it "will be a challenge for it to sell 13 million units, particularly if the title is from [internal studio] Sledgehammer [Games]. While the staff at Sledgehammer are all veterans, they are unproven as a team, and the next game that they release will be their first together."

Sledgehammer Games was founded in 2009 when Activision hired away two top Dead Space developers from Electronic Arts. The shop was slated to bring the Call of Duty series into the action adventure genre but was revealed to be working on a first-person entry in the series in May. In his note, Hickey stated he believed development of Modern Warfare 3 is underway at Sledgehammer, although court documents had it being in the works at series creator Infinity Ward as of May.

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217 comments
hange
hange

It is going to be a MMOFPS. That is the reason Bobby Kotick wanted Bungie in the first place. To finally get his Call of Duty with monthly subscription fees. (It won't be a CoD game because the fans would go crazy, but he thinks people are stupid enough to buy the same thing with a different name. The sad thing is, he's probably right)

gotpwnage520
gotpwnage520

I could see Bungie's next game, Call of Duty: Futuristic Warfare. I wonder if Bungie is working on a CoD entry, if it will be the same gameplay style as Halo or like CoD

Maars_82
Maars_82

I'm normally a PS3 guy, but judging from their work on Halo I'd say that if Bungie would get a crack at working on a COD release it would be fairly epic.

togmkn2
togmkn2

Bungie is probably nervous after hearing this. I mean they have a good track record and all, but if Michael Pachter said the sun will come up tomorrow, it wouldn't.

ThAdEa82
ThAdEa82

Bungie is a great dev guy..good luck to him

ThAdEa82
ThAdEa82

@ Shadow_Fire41 - cod4 was epic so on that point alone your post is FAIL

Shadow_Fire41
Shadow_Fire41

FPS is starting to get stale...............and by starting, i meant back when the 360 first came out.

amaan4ever
amaan4ever

People have wings and they can fly- Analysts

FedCom
FedCom

Big name, multi-platform...yeah it could sell. Not sure why "analysts" get paid to blurt the obvious but sign me up!

Squall101
Squall101

Who won the Modern Warfare franchise rights? Activision or Infinity Ward ?

erix43
erix43

Yeah, and I predict that many gamers will lose their virginity soon too. You know why? Because this gaming crap is becoming a numbers game. What about the fun in games? Everything is a "rehash" of everything with an "update" in combat these days or a "prequel." More like a "pre-milk." Who cares... BOOOOOOOOOOH...

CassadyH
CassadyH

I guess activision will have another cash cow lined up after they run call of duty into the ground. Although, i understand bungie will retain rights to their new ip. Correct me if im wrong.

georgeorjose
georgeorjose

@CamoBullo or is that what they want u to think!!

sonicmask
sonicmask

@Warlord_Iroch Uncharted 2, mag, heavy rain and more... I didnt mean games, I mean people. Who cant see what a good game is and what is pure garbage who think halo and cod are better then uncharted and killzone... You know what a good game is.. the rest of the world is encouraging garbage to be made!

LT-Voltaire
LT-Voltaire

@GiantMing A First Person Slayer ehh! Well that sounds like a great idea. I think it would have to be rated M cause I'd like see some real blood and guts as you hack away at the body parts of your enemies. I want to see them really make a game like this.

packers91
packers91

Activision flash+Bungie quality will be win

vulturr
vulturr

if bungie games are going to be bungie style and even more then ROCK ON!!!

TWayne1020
TWayne1020

I'd rather ask a psychic than an analyst for a more accurate reading !!!!!

keg2kay
keg2kay

sooo you have pulled random statistics out of your ahole about a game that hasn't even been announced yet

giantming
giantming

Make Call of Duty: Medieval Warfare and i'll buy it. No, hear me out, make the game compatible to Kinect or Move, and then pretend you are holding a sword and a shield, run in formation toward the enemy and slay the hell out of them. I mean it will take more than that to make a good game but that's down right interesting right? First Person Slayer.

Sgthombre
Sgthombre

Chicago Cubs will win World Series and China will give back Hong Kong to England, analysts say. See? I can do it, too.

thanatosser
thanatosser

Lot of money in guess work these days...

MEDzZ3RO
MEDzZ3RO

This analyst is basing these figures on the fact that the PS3 version will do aswell as the 360 version.The fact is,PS3 gamers never wanted Halo but instead want Left4Dead and Mass Effect 2. I don't doubt the sale figures will be high but I don't think the sales on PS3 will rival that of the Call Of Duty franchise.

aaron263
aaron263

GIVE ME MASTER CHIEF BACK!!!!!!!!!!!!!

N0tYrBeezin
N0tYrBeezin

Yeah sure ... pink elephant could fly too!

amari24
amari24

Bigger than Call of Duty? Unfortuntley, that's unlikely. Those idiots enjoy getting milked out of their money once a new CoD game is released.

tsiper
tsiper

What ever Bungie does will be gold those people are awesome awesome genius's

CamoBullo
CamoBullo

@georgeorjose They're no longer developing Halo. Microsoft's 343 Industries will be developing the series from now on.

Ronnie_Rim
Ronnie_Rim

GS relies too heavily on analysts.

Dominicobaggio
Dominicobaggio

Bungie are releasing a hamster petting game newsflash. Wanna rethink that prediction? No really, how funny would that be, i want to be an analyst. What a job... I predict the next generation of games consoles will sell millions!!!

Scotterius
Scotterius

@sleepychicken Yep, there is Myth, Marathon, Oni...and Halo. Honestly Myth was pretty impressive. As a PC player Halo was surpassed years earlier by other titles before it was released on any platform. The title was fantastic on the XBox though. Bungi may be a victim of its success of one particular title, much like Blizzard and Wow. As Blizzard had a hiatus of half a decade with their other franchises, Bungi is probably also hesitant to step away from FPS. But, its "Bungi"...those Mac folks are kinda slippery. I would not put money on any guesses in regard to direction of story.

sleepychicken
sleepychicken

Agree with kvan33. Oni was a blockbuster? Marathon? Saying Bungie has a history of proven blockbusters is like saying Peter Jackson has mad several blockbuster movies. He made one, it was really long and split up into 3 parts.

kvan33
kvan33

"[Bungie] has a long history of proven blockbusters." What? One milked franchise is not a long history of proven blockbusters.

BLaZe462
BLaZe462

it might sell 20 million, but it'll probly still suck

Tokinblckgie
Tokinblckgie

To everybody wondering how this prediction makes sense, it doesn't. I don't know if this is to build hype for the project or just to keep Bungie's name out there, but there's almost nothing out there that leads me to believe that a brand new ip will be that well received.

Gruug
Gruug

Halo Reach was merely "ok". I had expect more. More that is in regards to length of the campaign and more variety in MP. While the maps were fresh and there were a couple new twists to gameplay, it was stilll pretty much same old same old from previous Halo's. Don't get me wrong, Bungie has a ton of potential. So far though all I have seen is a one horse show.

Ghost_702
Ghost_702

Obviously it has the potential to sell more since it would be released on more than one console. What kind of prediction is that? A monkey could have told us that.

Chaozi
Chaozi

Hopefully, their game will actually give some credibility to the PS3 instead of all the Halo stuff i could care so little about

rlune52
rlune52

I love bungie, but i don't know how this analyst can predict that bungie's next game sells 20 million copies when we don't even know what they are making yet.

kaziechameleon
kaziechameleon

I think we've all seen how their quality has soared as they've gained creative freedom. I loved the SP in ODST. One of my favorite xbox shooter campaigns.

M3tr4nk0
M3tr4nk0

I don't see the point of this prediction, since nothing has been announced about the game yet...

hotdiddykong
hotdiddykong

Firstly, we dont know what their making, predicting now is foolish but its bungie so who knows what their making, it might be good. Secondly, they really shouldn't predict sales, they dont want to jinx it. Nintendo didn't predict galaxy 2 sales and yet alone it got them more than triple the amount they lost back then,and that was allot. It really tingles me to know what bungies next project is, whatever it is,I hope its awesome. Personally I want them to do sonething that's not a shooter.

atopp399
atopp399

What if their next game is an MMO? Still 20 million then?

deathwish026
deathwish026

reach sold 3.3m on 1 platform modern warfare 2 sold 15m+ on 5 platforms bungie aint doing too bad there. definitly a main contender to kick Cod of its very high exagerated horse.

okassar
okassar

Comeon Pachter, there aren't even details of the game out yet...how can you possibly predict sales on it? Although I must say, Activision must've cut a deal with Bungie because of a predicted decline of CoD. If sales of CoD go down but they get another amazing income source, they're even better off than before. They must have a high level of confidence with their deal with Bungie, so it's probably good (until it gets milked over 10 years..). Activision $$$ + Bungie's amazingness might = Win. This equation does not work if Activision puts dumb restrictions on development, but I have a feeling they're gonna let Bungie do what it does best.

steelmouth
steelmouth

is 20mil the number to beat anyhow it ant gonna happen at least not with the 1st game, they need to establish die hard fans before selling 10mil+

bipolargamer
bipolargamer

Could "Pimps at Sea" finally be a reality from Bungie? Could this be the title that sells 20 milllion? PLEASE LET IT BE SO!!!!

Dasrasimus1
Dasrasimus1

The fact that Michael Patcher is still employed is beyond me. He gets nearly every prediction he makes wrong.. The only time he is right is when it is a no-brainer. He fails at life