Analysts expect modest growth for June

A trio of industry watchers offer their expectations for the NPD Group's US retail sales tally; software sales expected to grow between 8 and 20 percent.

The last few months have been a bit of a retail roller coaster for the game industry, with domestic game sales actually declining year-over-year in April, followed by a 33 percent sales surge in May, according to the industry-tracking NPD Group. With NPD set to release its US retail sales data for June 2007 on Monday, a handful of analysts have made their predictions on the results, and it appears they expect the roller coaster to even out somewhat.

In a note to investors, Pacific Crest Securities' Evan Wilson pegged software sales to be up about 10 percent over last year's $444 million take, bringing the total close to $490 million. Wilson names Transformers, Harry Potter, Pokémon Battle Revolution, and Resident Evil 4 Wii Edition as the best-selling new releases, with the DS and Wii leading the hardware pack with up to 425,000 and 400,000 systems sold, respectively. He expects the PlayStation Portable to have sold around 225,000 units, with the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 topping out at 175,000 and 100,000 respectively.

Wedbush Morgan Securities' Michael Pachter was slightly more pessimistic on software sales growth for the month, telling investors to expect a tally of $480 million, up 8 percent from the year before. He also warned that gaudy growth rates will be harder to come by, given that strong sales in the back half of 2006 will make for tough comparisons. As for the console wars, Pachter predicted Wii sales to have totaled 435,000, while the Xbox 360 will have sold 200,000 systems compared to the PS3's 100,000.

Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian was more upbeat than his peers, predicting a software sales bump of 15 to 20 percent. While his numbers skewed higher than consensus expectations, he acknowledged that hits from June 2006 like THQ's Cars and Take-Two Interactive's Grand Theft Auto: Liberty City Stories made for a tough comparison. As for hardware sales, Sebastian said the Wii and DS remained in strong demand, while the PSP is expected to see a bump in units sold.

The NPD Group released its Canadian retail game sales data yesterday, reporting a 31-percent jump in software sales, and a 60-percent spike for industry sales when factoring in accessories and hardware.

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Discussion

65 comments
delcidanddarth
delcidanddarth

@Ninjeti I know that list you are referencing about "exclusives" for each console. Unfortunately, the 360 list is bloated with many "console exclusives", but are also offered for the PC. If the point of an exclusive is to attract new gamers to buy your console, you have to take the 360 list with a grain of salt, since anyone with a computer could choose to play the PC version and not buy a 360. If you remove those, you end up with fewer exclusives than nintendo. Of course, none of this means anything because what counts is GOOD exclusives, not just number of games. I'd rather have 5 great exclusives than 50 crap exclusives (which is what I think of all the consoles' line-ups... a whole bunch of crap with a few gems sprinkled in).

ebookerd1
ebookerd1

That is good for the industry growth means more jobs and quality games. And that about raps up all my feelings toward this topic. no fan boy crap from thank you.

Humorguy_basic
Humorguy_basic

Cheap old gaming (that's what I call it!) is the fastest growing gaming genre on practically every gaming machine (except handheld and the Wii) People want cheap retro gaming cvomplilations, they want cheap retro gaming available for download. On PC they want casual games that are cheap and although not old are designed for older PCs. So with retro growing I would say that is a sign on console that modern games are now too shallow and with too little content for the cost, and on PC they go for retro and casual games because they run on their current machine and they are going down that road as they have no intention of upgrading their PC in the next 12 months. This all tells me something is happening in video gaming, whether PC or console. There is a very fast moving trend away from modern games to either older or simpler games. This is why retro is growing on the PS3, 360 and PC and why the DS and Wii are both doing so well. The bigger the retro market the more likely a large down turn in modern game sales. The roller coaster we are going through now with regard sales is just the start of it. I expect game sales for the PS3, 360 and PC to have half the total sales in 2 years time that the PS2 XBox and PC had in game sales 2 years ago.

Jaioxung
Jaioxung

@ Ninjeti Lets look at it this way; The last XB produced maybe 4 good exclusives through its entire lifespan, Halo 1&2, KOTOR and Fable. I'm willing to bet that of the 91 X360 exclusives coming up, 50 of them are going to be the same dull, FPS crap we've all played 900,000 times before, just with shinier graphics. 2 are racing game that came along as an answer to Gran Turismo. 9 games might be something new, but most likely will tread the same stale ground we've all traveled for the past 5 years. And 30 of them will be utterly deplorable, unplayable steaming turds. So I'd peg the "must-play experiences you can't get anywhere else" at around 0. Check out the hightest rated 360 games here on gamespot. You'll notice that only three of the top ten games are exclusive.

typester
typester

kid below me says lair will be great while halo 3 isn't. lol blind fanboys

ACbomber
ACbomber

PC gaming is dead: stealing a pc game is far too easy.... i think 1 in 10 of my friends actually buy their PC games... then again i'm in canada, which was threatened to be put on a black list.....

NinjaMunkey01
NinjaMunkey01

the ps3 will pick up pace. I believe that developers need to take real advantage of the technology it offers. I have all 3 consoles (yay) and I can see that the ps3 will soon be on everyones wish list. Ido not see the great nee for the 360. It was just out first and everyone rushed to buy it. now the consoles just crash all the time having to be replaced. Cant wait for games like lair. 25 gigs of space was needed to create that game! 25gigs! sorry but all of the games exclusive to the 360 are limited to 9 gigs and that is a joke compared to the blue-ray. I cant wait for all the good exclusives coming for the ps3! halo is the only 360 exclusive I want but even that is not great.

Makhdoom82
Makhdoom82

Well a good reason for modest sales this maybe that consumers are all waiting for some kind of price drop on everything ... but for PC gaming it has been modest sales for about a year now .... good titles are very scarce and nobody knows when is that going to change !!!

Olly464
Olly464

Arthur470, You are right, thats what i've done too. But the actual building of it is actually quite difficult, and if you don't know what your doing you could end up in hospital! Didnt happen to me though. Oh and yeah nghtwlr821 is also correct, grow up!

Ninjeti
Ninjeti

stu_godd "it seems like every one is confused to why the ps3 is doing badly and paniking about it.and yea its just lack of games.i predict sales will dramaticly increase wen gta/mgs4/haze/asassins creed are released" the only ps3 exclusive there is mgs4 and i wouldn't be suprised if that went to the 360 too, like almost every other game. i'd rather get the 360 and have the exclusive gta4 extra content. i don't have a 360 year but i'm getting one when the new 65nm is released. Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell Double Agent,Alan Wake (from the makers of Max Payne 1 & 2), Halo 3, Full version of GTA4 (PS3 is getting a inferior version) Ace Combat 6, Mass Effect, Bioshock, Too Human, Eternal Sonata, Blue Dragon, Lost Odyssey, Gears of War, Project Gotham Racing 4, Forza Motorsport 2, dead rising, fable 2. they also confirmed ninja gaiden 2 for the 360 but not for the ps3. This year PS3 has 41 exclusives, Wii has 76, and 360 has 91

DiscGuru101
DiscGuru101

Until GTA:4 comes out, not much new software coming... Especially for the BS3 -@SonyRulzU: No, Sony rules you. Undeceive yourself kid.

nghtcrwlr821
nghtcrwlr821

All the fanboys (Nintendo, Sony, PC, and Microsoft) all need to grow up and realize that gaming politics is a waste of time. Play games on all systems. Until you do that you'll never be a true game player. ( I hate that damn "Gamer" word)

SonyRulzU
SonyRulzU

[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]

XBASX
XBASX

Predictions predictions. Tommorow I'l be rich

Arthur470
Arthur470

Just one thing for all you people out there who say PC costs a lot of money: PC GAMING COSTS ABOUT THE SAME AS CONSOLES, because if you know what you are doing, it is possible to build $2000 PC for half of that money. That's what I did last year, and now I have PC that will play any game I want. The key is to buy parts separatly, and then put the computer togeter yourself. It is really not that hard, anybody with a brain should be able to do it. Here is the breakdown of what i did/bought: Pentium Dual Core 3.4 Geg processor/motherboard combo -$340 G-force NX 6600 256 mb videocard- $150 DVD-ROM - $50 Soundcard supporting 5.1 channel sound- $50 2 GB RAM - $200 430 Watt powersupply - $70 Case- used one from my old PC, lol 80 GB 7200 RPM hard drive - $60 Total: $920 plus tax Then, there is also keyboard/mouse (cheap. $50 for both), and monitor, but if you already have a computer, you should have those too. And, if you are into online gaming, a network card- but those are cheap too, for $50 it's possible to get a really nice one. So, there we go - about $1000 for a computer that will play anything. Now, the consoles: One has to consider, that to experience next-gen console to its full capacity high-def TV is a must. Those TV's alone cost close to $1000, even some of the smaller ones. Plus, the consoles themselves- 360- $400 (I personally think that the Elite is not worth getting), PS3 - $500, plus the games are more expensive, $60 per game, vs $40-$50 for a computer game. That's at least $1500 just to buy a console and a decent TV to play it on. Except for Wii, of course, but Wii is the sort of thing that people ether love or hate- I've known people that can't put it down, and people who got rid of theirs within two weeks, because they were bored. I appreciate Nintendo for trying something new, though, I totally plan on getting myself one, ones they become available.

stu_godd
stu_godd

it seems like every one is confused to why the ps3 is doing badly and paniking about it.and yea its just lack of games.i predict sales will dramaticly increase wen gta/mgs4/haze/asassins creed are released

R3V3N4N7
R3V3N4N7

This time is always slow with only one or two must buys out.

arbiter1024
arbiter1024

@rpgisforme, "Analysts don't have a clue and I bet none of these guys who predict the gaming sales even own a system. Ask the gamers and we'll tell ya how it's gonna go and that is simple" You should try playing the simExchange then. Its a prediction game for video games driven by gamers and developers. In the past three months, predictions from the simExchange have been more accurate than analysts for predicting NPD console sales.

tristangreer
tristangreer

Mixmasta, If PC companies could standarize their machines like consoles do to keep the average player from having to upgrade every six months to a year, then maybe PC gaming would be a bigger market. The fact is that the majority of gamers are not hardcore gamers, and are just looking to have a fun time with some good games. The consoles are delivering on this. Plus, casual to moderate console gamers don't have to worry about compatibility and such, which appeals to those who want to pop a disk in, play for a while, and call it a day. Hardcore PC gaming might be cool for those who have upwards of $2K to spend on a rig, but not everyone enjoys blowing quite that much money on a machine that will be obsolete in a couple of years.

dantesergei
dantesergei

i wish i could have BOTH consoles that way i can play all the best games i dont even have a ps3 or 360 :(

football_legend
football_legend

Just think the growth during the September and October when HALO 3 and GTA IV releases.

arbiter1024
arbiter1024

Looks like GameSpot missed the most important forecasts--those from the simExchange video game predicton market. The other game media had those last week, which are based on the wisdom of crowds. A prediction market is more accurate on average than individual experts.

Themilkman418
Themilkman418

Mixmasta consoles are not the fall of hardcore gamers, PC gaming is for people who are willing to shell out cash every year for a system that doesn't even have that many games. PC still markets towards casual or kids with games like putt putt, back yard sports (for kids.) The consoles are still producing games for the hardcore espically the 360 with games like Ace Combat 6.

rpgisforme
rpgisforme

Analysts don't have a clue and I bet none of these guys who predict the gaming sales even own a system. Ask the gamers and we'll tell ya how it's gonna go and that is simple ...when the PS3 has some games, sales will go up, 360's are still gonna sell cause they are affordable, Wii will continue to sell because it's affordable but I still say the gimmick will wear off, it's just taking a little while. There done! Go easy on me, I am entitled to have my opinion, and that's it. lol

Rockin_MixMasta
Rockin_MixMasta

OH. And need I remind anyone that it was ANALYSTS who said the Wii was a gimmick and that all of the hype would be over by earlier 2007. Hmm. I just recently purchased my Wii. And was the last one in my entire city at the time, I live in Canada for god sake. Analysts are no better than the teenagers who call everyone 'noobs' on FPS games. The know little, they are usually wrong, and everyone hates them. But as soon as they are proven wrong, they take their ball and run away. By the way. Hardcore games are not dead thanks to the Wii. Hardcore games are dead thanks to consoles. My proof? Look at PC games of the past compared to the games we see now that everything is being ported to consoles. Look at franchises like Doom and Quake, and how they have gotten worse and worse due to all of this 'revolutionary change' everyone tries to bring. The scores have gotten lower and lower. Consoles restrict games from what they can accomplish, it isn't Nintendo's fault they took a second and said 'something isn't right'. The fact that they managed to go outside of the box, and make their product look nothing like the same old crap we see in every Xbox and Playstation, is incredible. I guess everything must be a gimmick. The DS has been selling terrible, and so has the Wii. Keep your hate in the system wars, please.

Rockin_MixMasta
Rockin_MixMasta

I don't understand why GameSpot keeps posting these analyst expectations every month. I'll tell you whats going to happen. And I am just a gamer. People are going to cry because they can't afford a decent PC. The Wii is going to be impossible to find in stores. The DS is going to further prove to us that 2D lives. The PSP is going to sell, but be beaten by the GBA. 360s will break. Another exec will fall. The PS3 will continue to lack in games, cost too much, and beat the 360 in Japan (obv). It's the same trash that has happened for the longest time now, and I don't see why we need some analyst to tell us what we already know. I am a PC gamer, backing my 'funtime' with a Wii and a DS. I am happy. So is it fair for me to say "I believe the Wii and DS will succeed and PC gaming will always be the dominant force with it's keyboard and mouse functionality"? No. Because I am reasonable. While it may be true, it is not fair for me (or anyone) to go out and say it. Thankyou, Analysts.

Humorguy_basic
Humorguy_basic

Generic information means nothing. DS game sales up 100%, PC game sales down 35% and what do you have? Headline shouting about 50%+ growth in 'gaming'. We need these figures broken down to really see what's happening, or we may as well not get this info at all!

Themilkman418
Themilkman418

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

CTR360
CTR360

wow dissapoing sales wii win again i dont understand why people buy a wii the graphics not better on xbox

DiscoBurn
DiscoBurn

I can understand John's point, and atleast he admits he's shallow. But here's the thing..the Wii doesn't have a crap for games, but admittedly has less then others. I personally have Zelda, Super Paper Mario, The Godfather, and Resident Evil 4 and am loving all of them. There's games there, they just don't have a large enough range to satisfy all types of gamers completly yet. I have faith that with sales numbers like these, developers will be willing to finally hop on the Wii train. I know everyone makes this reference, but everyone thought the DS was gimmicky, but when people finally saw it's potential, a ton of great games came out, and still are. The Xbox 360 and PS3 are still selling well enough that I doubt you'll have to worry about losing out on your eye candy. I think a balance will be found, and gaming will be better then it ever has been before, for people with or without large gaming budgets.

Super-Mario-Fan
Super-Mario-Fan

I wonder why they had the Canadian numbers up this week, but not the U.S. numbers. Anybody know?

lobobizarro
lobobizarro

Analyst can be defined by the first 4 letter of that word... Thats where they get their sources, from those 4 letters where their brain resides. I am sure these numbers are not off by much though. At this point we can assume this is how it will go for a while...

Navick
Navick

@ Ragincoley86... wait for the actual numbers. These are only predictions.

ragincoley86
ragincoley86

Another month the 360 outsells the ps3 and another month i cant find the wii in stores.

ketsuatama
ketsuatama

Watch the spike in software sales in September 07. Anybody can make an estimate and pretend to be authoritative but in reality they are only really punting and hoping to hell they sound smart to justify their existence!

onlineps2player
onlineps2player

each report shows an increase in the number of gamers too ;)

Taegre
Taegre

I'm afraid Johnny does have a point about his fear of the Wii beginning a budget trend and dragging future consoles down. It's already started a casual-gamer trend that has really screwed up games this year with developers abandoning some really cool features just to keep the game simple enough for people who normally don't play games in the first place. Other than that I'm glad they've proven that gameplay triumphs over graphics. That bad news is that a good amount of 360 games still have better gameplay than the Wii.

MOOKUU
MOOKUU

just accept it johnny boy...your exactly the type of gamer thats rapidly dying out (and becoming less important) in the gaming industry and i for one am glad to see Nintendo back on top. Graphics and Horsepower doesn't matter nomore...its all about fun and Nintendo is where its at....it only natural to be afraid knowing you dont exist nomore....lol

john1912
john1912

Seriously, the Wii is begining to scare me lol. I know it is still new, but the games suck. I would buy Zelda and RE4 at best, everything else sucks. I dont know why it is selling. The controller is novel and could be really cool if the right games are made for it, but either way I would just HATE to see it be the top selling system. It makes me worry that it will set a trend on budget systems and drag the whole industry down. WIth the lack of games I cant see the Wii as much of anything else then a pimped out DS, and even if it produced some of the best games ever I dont want it to becasue it isnt cutting edge, and doesnt offer the graphics I want. Shallow yes, but I want a console that is not only fun but pushes tech at the same time, Id just hate to see gimped consoles for the next 10 years, I like my eye candy!

android_M
android_M

Aint nothing special has happened in June that didnt happen earlier this year. Most likely the software sales are gonna go up for the coming fall and winter; what with all the games lined up to be released by the end of this year; as for the hardware, I would guess that the Christmas shopping season will help move some of that merchandise as well so thats some good news

gcps2master
gcps2master

Sounds okay for nintendo, but who seriously buys Harry Potter games?

AnFangs_Endes
AnFangs_Endes

lol must be casual's buying up the movie games, seeing as no self respecting gamer would bother to lose the brain-cells

getoconnection
getoconnection

HK-47-M4 I bet Mario Party snd Pokemon will be in the top ten. That's unfortunate since those games are AWFUL. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- So sayth you right....