Analysts expect big November numbers

Wedbush Morgan and The simExchange prognosticators believe last month's US retail game software sales topped $1 billion.

Few would argue that it hasn't been a fantastic year for games, and November was far and away the biggest month of the year when it came to new releases. Considering that the month welcomed the launches of Super Mario Galaxy, Call of Duty 4, Mass Effect, Rock Band, Crysis, Assassin's Creed, Need for Speed ProStreet, and Unreal Tournament III, a pair of analysts is expecting November's software sales to obliterate November 2006's game software sales tally of $804 million.

Wedbush Morgan Securities' Michael Pachter pegged November's game sales at $1 billion, up 24 percent from the previous year. In addition to the new releases and continued sales of catalog titles such as Guitar Hero III and Madden NFL 08, Pachter points to the NPD's reporting period as a reason for bigger numbers this year. Last November, the reporting period for the month cut off two days after Thanksgiving, the unofficial start of the frenzied US holiday shopping season. This year, the NPD's November reporting period ended nine days after the key holiday.

The simExchange prediction market paints an even rosier picture of November game sales, suggesting that the industry's software will actually be up 42 percent to $1.15 billion. According to the market, this month won't be a slouch of any sort either. The simExchange is projecting record-setting December software sales of $2.39 billion.

"Although consumer spending has slowed down this quarter with many retailers reporting disappointing results, video games are largely inelastic to consumer income," simExchange analyst Jesse Divnich said of the figures. "The market’s forecast for November and December confirms the belief that video games are a safe haven business in slower consumer spending environments."

On the hardware front, Pachter believe the Wii and PlayStation 3 both doubled their sales from the previous November, when both systems launched in the US. He expects Wii sales for the month to total 950,000 (compared to 476,000 at launch), while the PS3 improves on last year's 197,000 units sold to reach sales of 420,000. Pachter's projected Xbox 360 increase is closer to 50 percent, with Microsoft's system selling 750,000 units, as opposed to last November's 511,000.

The simExchange hardware figures were largely in line with Pachter's, although the prediction market expects that the Wii sold just over a million units in November, followed by the Xbox 360 with 728,000, and the PlayStation 3 with 410,000. On the portable front, the simExchange projected a whopping 1.3 million Nintendo DS systems sold, with 468,000 PlayStation Portables following suit.

NPD US hardware and software sales figures for November are expected to be released Thursday afternoon.

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Discussion

103 comments
Tremere1
Tremere1

Nice numbers. Next year going to 2 billion$.

nate1222
nate1222

@hbxclo You nailed it. Don't forget that dirty 'B' word that Sony and Microsoft don't seem to like lately: BACKWARD COMPATIBILITY. The PS2 got major sales on the fact that you could play your PS1 titles on it. Nintendo screwed up on the Game Cube by not having that feature. They seem to have taken a note on that with the Wii.

grafkhun
grafkhun

sooooo... many finance reports/news lately. but man 1.3 million DSes sold in november, holy crap.

V-Nine
V-Nine

So far all I've seen is alot of extra b***s***jammed on these new high-def formats and I have yet to be able to view a movie from any angle as promised since DVD heck even Laser disc. All that friggin' space and nobody knows what to do with it except jam more crap on it. Like I am sooooooo interested in seeing the directors interview in 1080p...oh wow look at the clarity of the pimples on his face, ooo look at the heat rise from his fart that he just silently let loose. Above all else I have yet to hear of PC's using a high def drive for games and yet they still output 1080p and 7.1 surround(yea at cost but its there). Where is the supposed line other than increased space. Its fantastic for archiving though.

hatieshorrer
hatieshorrer

response to: lucky-coins If your compressing theory is true then why do multi-platform games look better and have shorter load times on the 360 then there PS3 counter parts?

lucky-coins
lucky-coins

@andrew_ribbons: Sony on the other hand is using blu-ray for gaming. You can't compare these different policies, neither can you define what modern gaming is. This is also what I believe people mean when they say PS3 is much more powerful. Not that it's better than 360 at presenting the software, rather you'll have much more HD content to look forward too. While 360 that is using the DVD format developed by Sony, Toshiba & Philips that today would require a lot of compressing in order to present HD content on the already low space developers are required to work on DVD9 disks.

andrew_ribbons
andrew_ribbons

To theKungFool: Correct you are a fool. Microsoft didn't include the HD player in the 360 because it's not a required component to modern gaming. The 360 also costs HALF as much as a PS3 when comparing the two base units. Here in Europe, a PS3 40Gb model costs £300. This is the same price as a high-end Xbox 360 Elite 120Gb model. The pricing on the 360 is geared more towards choice, not forcing people to buy an HD movie player just so the parent company might win a platform medium war!

hatieshorrer
hatieshorrer

response to: thekodaman "Just to clarifiy the last few posts: The PS3 is more powerful than the 360 but not massively so, rather the 360 can produce relatively comparable graphics and framerates as the PS3 but not AS MUCH of it at any one time as the PS3 and this is the PS3's strength in terms of hardware over the 360." Such as how Madden08 on the PS3 runs at 30fps and, Madden08 on 360 runs at 60fps and, yet the PS3 shows the exact same detail as the 360. As the Microsoft reps. said at E3 2006 Screen shots of Multi-console games are usually taken from 360 hardware. These companies wouldnt do that without an obviously good reason for it.

HalfEVILmonkey
HalfEVILmonkey

ps3 is really not a good console. At all. Online is garbage. Even most developers admit that it is a pain to develop on.

TheKungFool
TheKungFool

All this jimmer jammer about the 360 vs PS3 graphics comparison thing gets tired. They're both great systems and they both produce great games with fantastic graphics. The only discearnable difference between the two is that the PS3 is significantly cheaper and offers vastly superior quality and reliability. Sony doesn't charge you $169.99 for your HD movie player or $50 a year for your online support, and you won't have RRoD fears every time you turn on the PS3. Aside from that, the units are both graphically capable.

soulsearch11
soulsearch11

thekodaman Just to clarifiy the last few posts: The PS3 is more powerful than the 360 but not massively so, rather the 360 can produce relatively comparable graphics and framerates as the PS3 but not AS MUCH of it at any one time as the PS3 and this is the PS3's strength in terms of hardware over the 360. Pretty much all of this is false. Not only does the 360 produce comparable graphics, but it can actually produce BETTER graphics than the PS3 due to having more RAM dedicated specifically to graphic processing, than does the PS3. Additionally, the 360 possesses a slightly superior video card to the PS3. I thought this was pretty much common knowledge by now. I mean surely most people have read the a consortium of articles from hardware specialist stating the same thing, by now. And the advantage that the PS3 has is supposed to be that it processes mathematical algorithms better than the 360. And of course the PS3 has many more ancillary functions out the box. (wi-fi, web browsing, extra usb ports, card readers, etc.) Regardless what is true about either console, the one unchanging principal is that superior graphics don't necessarily make a better console.

thekodaman
thekodaman

Just to clarifiy the last few posts: The PS3 is more powerful than the 360 but not massively so, rather the 360 can produce relatively comparable graphics and framerates as the PS3 but not AS MUCH of it at any one time as the PS3 and this is the PS3's strength in terms of hardware over the 360.

aussieboy911
aussieboy911

i thought this news piece was about how big the sales are for november, not for which console is best. there are a lot of sony fanboys who have been saying its more powerful- truth is they're not much different. a good looking a game is the result of clever programming to create beautiful images within the processing capabilities of each machine. therefore one game cannot stand for each console. i say stop the bickering and stand by your man by buying your console and its games dont hide behind petty hardware squabbles.

blackace
blackace

cryingfoot I agree with you Ianista, But for the same price u have twice the power with the Ps3 and a blue ray. I don't really care about the winner, but when u will see Final fantasy and grand tourismo 5, Microsoft will have to drop the price really hard. ******************************************** I've played the demo of Uncharted. The game is very good, but it's not leaps and bound better then XBox 360 best games. The PS3 is NOT twice as powerful as the XBox 360. Every developer in the business will tell you you're wrong on that fact. We've seen FF XIII and GT 5 and neither game was leaps ahead of what the XBox 360 could produce. I'm played the GT HD demo and besides the incredible car models, that game still played like GT3 and has poor background environments. If GT5 online modes are good, I'll be bored of GT 5 within the 1st week.

hbxclo
hbxclo

"After playing Uncharted: Drake's Fortune, its clear that the Ps3 is way more powerful than the 360. I'm not a sony fan body ,in fact i'm a 360 lover, but the hardware is really crappy compare to the ps3. I know that sony have make a mess with the press, developers and also the design that is so ugly; But for the machine u could only praise them." And you base this on one game? Read the articles: http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=17934 http://www.itvidya.com/playstation_3_vs_xbox_360 http://www.hardcoreware.net/reviews/review-348-1.html ------ I wouldn't call the 360 or the PS3's hardware crappy at all...both are quite ahead of their time technology-wise. I praise both companies for their hardware. However, its folly to believe that the PS3 is twice as powerful as the 360. Most technical minds agree that the Xbox 360 is in fact more powerful in many aspects, particularly when it comes to the GPU. Does this mean that the Xbox 360 is really that superior to the PS3 or vice versa? Frankly, no. Where Sony dropped the ball isn't in their hardware (again its an impressive piece of hardware)...nor is it a matter of their financial planning (which people love to pick apart). The problem lies in their marketing strategy. The PS3 is a public relations nightmare...its the system people love to hate. They misread the market and their own consumers. They underestimated their competition and the price sensitivity of gamers. They screwed up with brand positioning and pricing. They leveraged the success of the playstation against their ambition to push blu-ray. If they can't overcome the hole they dug themselves into, they'll have a hard time catching up to MS and Nintendo

leapfrog91
leapfrog91

Uncharted plays awesomely - I wouldn't say it's anything special compared to Mass Effect or Assassin's Creed though.

cryingfoot
cryingfoot

After playing Uncharted: Drake's Fortune, its clear that the Ps3 is way more powerful than the 360. I'm not a sony fan body ,in fact i'm a 360 lover, but the hardware is really crappy compare to the ps3. I know that sony have make a mess with the press, developers and also the design that is so ugly; But for the machine u could only praise them.

hbxclo
hbxclo

"The Ps3 will show them next year what is a next gen machine. I own all of them but came to a conclusion that xbox360 need more power and wii need more...more." Thats if you really believe the PS3 is more powerful: http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=17934 http://www.itvidya.com/playstation_3_vs_xbox_360 http://www.hardcoreware.net/reviews/review-348-1.htm That being said, Sony's own track record with the Playstation shows that superior hardware doesn't equate to market dominance. Both the PS1 and PS2 captured market dominance with inferior technology relative to their main competitors. What allowed the PS2 and PS1 to dominate was an early entrance into the market with favorable pricing, which led them to holding the largest market share of hardware. This in turn led to more support from developers, a more robust library of games...and yes, even more market share for hardware. Sony lost sight of what made them successful with the PS1 and PS2 when they developed the PS3. I blame their ambition to use the PS3 to push blu-ray. Blu-ray is doing well as a result of the PS3, however the PS3 suffers because of Blu-ray. Microsoft looks quite a lot how Sony did with the PS2 and PS1. Nintendo used their creativity to segment the market to find a new route to profitability (and kicking ass in the process)

cryingfoot
cryingfoot

I agree with you Ianista, But for the same price u have twice the power with the Ps3 and a blue ray. I don't really care about the winner, but when u will see Final fantasy and grand tourismo 5, Microsoft will have to drop the price really hard.

lanista
lanista

"The Ps3 will show them next year what is a next gen machine. I own all of them but came to a conclusion that xbox360 need more power and wii need more...more." Xbox (and Gamecube) were more powerful than the PS2 last time and many cross-platform games suffered slowdown on the PS2 So I dont think power is everything unless you're an extreme gamer. And most people aren't...

lanista
lanista

Today DSs are completely sold out across the UK - I keep going to the retailers everyday and there's not a sniff of any anywhere and same story with the Wii Xbox360 seems to be doing okay Loads of PSPs and PS3s around - big deals on the PS3s to get em shifting...

General_Lee45
General_Lee45

Good sign for the PS3 I know it;s coming a day when PS dominates again.

Netherscourge
Netherscourge

Even with the price drop, 360 outsells PS3 almost 2 to 1

CrazyAzza
CrazyAzza

Surprising the amount of wii's sold

PolkaStripe
PolkaStripe

Nintendo sales never sies to impress =]

HalfEVILmonkey
HalfEVILmonkey

The New Accounting Treatment of Goodwill SFAS 142 made two major changes to goodwill accounting: Amortization of all goodwill ceased, regardless of when it originated. Goodwill is now carried as an asset without reduction for periodic amortization. Companies are to assess goodwill for impairment at least annually. If goodwill is impaired, its carrying amount is reduced and an impairment loss is recognized.

exterminater123
exterminater123

@ Crying foot the only reason masseffect and lost odyssey lag is because they werent properly optimaized because they rushed it out to get in on the thanksgivings week shopping frenzy.

cryingfoot
cryingfoot

I personally think that this is the last big time for wii and xbox 360. They both show this year what they can do and what they cannot do ( Mass effect lag and lost odyssey running at 20 FPS ). The Ps3 will show them next year what is a next gen machine. I own all of them but came to a conclusion that xbox360 need more power and wii need more...more.

sperr54
sperr54

what happened to atari's numbers?

SKOM34
SKOM34

It's funny the way fanboys use the NPD numbers to spark fights when they don't mean crap.

LittleYoshi
LittleYoshi

Wii60......never heard of it....but did heard about PS3Wii

Yuck_Too
Yuck_Too

Actually I think the 360 might be a bit more surprising. I was running around looking for GHIII and a Gold Zelda DS on the weekend and what really made me do a double take in EB Games and two (2) different Futureshop stores they were sold out of 360's. I don't know how many 360's stores typically get but the one Futureshop had two skids and both we're gone just from that weekend. I guess Sony will say that's more good news for them because if the Wii and 360 are gone then people will have to buy a PS3.

Rect_Pola
Rect_Pola

The fervor for these numbers seems a little out of place, as it hasn't really been the epic back and forth death-match fans make of it. With the natural exception of Halo 3 in September, most upsets reported have occurred during specific weeks, but ultimately do little to reshape the overall month. Even the November numbers, with Christmas season officially kicking off, analysts are saying the scale will be boggling, but still in proportion.

Mam00th
Mam00th

Well, I don't know what to say except: Duh?

LosDaddie
LosDaddie

[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]

spatan11711
spatan11711

The next gen consoles have had a massive impact on the look of games and gameplay improvements thats why i think its been the best year for games for a long time.

magicalclick
magicalclick

Don't know why people discredit those reports. They are pretty good estimates, especially for business investors. And please put that System War idea aside.

portej
portej

[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]

Puckhog04
Puckhog04

People are actually taking his hardware sales statistics as if they were true... They're estimations people. I personally think his hardware estimations are inflated (especially the Wii). Believe what you want though, i'll wait for NPD. and @ reactionsok: And i see Wii's and 360's at every store i go to...does that mean they aren't selling? No. One or two stores having a 360/PS3/Wii console in doesn't mean it isn't selling. Get a clue.

Darth_Tigris
Darth_Tigris

@portej Thanks for giving some perspective on the extent of what an analyst such as Patcher does. We are here exposed to such a small aspect of their job duties and, in the limited view many of us here would have on the subject, it often seems like their 'analysis' is more of a restatement of obvious facts. I know many here jumped on you, but I actually appreciated your enlightment.

hbxclo
hbxclo

We don't really need to apply complex finance/economic methods and jargon to figure out how this generation is going to play out. Talks of financial statement jargon are irrelevant, because the scope of the balance sheets of these companies span far beyond gaming systems alone. At any rate, Nintendo is clearly the hardware leader and Microsoft is the software leader. We can reasonably expect both game developers and consumers to perpetuate this trend..why? Developers are going to want to develop more games for systems that can push the most software. Consumers, in turn, are going to invest in hardware that has the best library of games, further driving software sales for that particular system, and *gasp* giving even more incentive for developers to focus their support. Even as Microsoft's sales start to slow and Sony's start to pick up pace, Microsoft still has a significant lead in hardware sales, and an overwhelming lead in software sales. No doubt developers and consumers are watching these figures. If Microsoft finds that their sales have started to plateau, they could just easily implement a price-cut, just as Sony did. We could very likely see one early next year, after MS has milked as much as they can out of consumers this holiday season.

rulo_rezn0r
rulo_rezn0r

lol, even with the price drop the ps3 can't compete with the 360 so sad, i use to be a ps1 and ps2 fan, but i was really dissapointed with the ps3

MrSickVisionz
MrSickVisionz

@Portej I think you took his quote out of context. Theres no way that you could take lessons or learn in the US and be fluent. Actually being in Japan, your only options are sit in a room by yourself with no communication to the outside world for 2 months, or make a go @ learning the language. And even then I have serious doubts about him being fluent. I'm sure he was more fluent than the average person taking lessons/classes in the language or fluent for someone who's only been doing it for two month, but was he really just flat out fluent?

portej
portej

[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]

portej
portej

[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]

ebookerd1
ebookerd1

Nice figures but personally I love when the analyst are totally incorrect!!! HAHAHA!! :)