Analysts expect April sales surge

Grand Theft Auto IV launch projected to spike retail software numbers; Sebastian pegs growth of at least 70 percent, Pachter predicts whopping 113 percent.

It's not uncommon for industry analysts to disagree when it comes to monthly NPD predictions, but they're usually in the same ballpark. However, when assessing numbers on the scale of the blockbuster release of Grand Theft Auto IV, those small disagreements get amplified.

Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian and Wedbush Morgan Securities' Michael Pachter have released their NPD predictions in investors' notes this week, and the pair's growth prognostications vary by 43 percent. While Sebastian predicted software sales growth of "at least" a sky-high 70 percent, Pachter projected growth of 113 percent.

Both analysts noted the obvious Grand Theft Auto IV as the primary sales driver, as well as Mario Kart for the Wii. Pachter also pointed to the two new Pokemon Mystery Dungeon games on the DS as strong performers in the new release category, while Sebastian expected the PlayStation 3 retail-or-downloadable racer Gran Turismo 5: Prologue to turn out a strong performance in stores.

The strength of Grand Theft Auto IV wasn't the only topic on which the pair agreed. Both analysts also expected dueling rhythm games Guitar Hero III and Rock Band to continue lighting up the sales charts. On top of that, Sebastian said the next few months looked promising for the industry, but added that growth comparisons will get more difficult later in the year. Pachter likewise warned investors to expect more modest growth levels later in the year.

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Discussion

47 comments
rynmls
rynmls

crisis core didn't sell that well? this will really be the end of psp...

DeltaSpirit
DeltaSpirit

mmmm.....prediction about April 2 weeks into May, expecting a sales surge only when the biggest game of the year was launched and was said to be a record breaker HOW DO THEY DO IT their predictions are better than Miss Cleo and their smarter than your average bear!!!

bourne2live
bourne2live

well obviously , they released a GTA title

nunes123
nunes123

GTA IV beats any other game ever!!!!! sorry for all the people who think differently but its just my opinion

Dagamemonkey
Dagamemonkey

GTA IV has owned, it is owning, and it will continue to own.

CageFury
CageFury

Screw this overrated piece of garbage that is GTAiV. GTAIV is awesome!

ashuncc2
ashuncc2

Hhmmm, I guess GTA did sell a few copies. ;)

metalkid9
metalkid9

screw sebastian who ever the hell he is, gta4 destroyed every single game in the market!!

ketsuatama
ketsuatama

A no-brainer but they still draw a salary; wish I had their jobs!

lextexrex
lextexrex

I predict high PS3 hardware sales in June. *cough* MGS4 bundle *cough*

Jebril
Jebril

No!!! GTA's gonna come out and nothing'll happen! >.

Evz0rz
Evz0rz

I like how they use the word "expect" as if it isn't completely obvious.

pencilpusher69
pencilpusher69

artson1966 "Will be an interesting month with the NPD numbers this week. I am really curious on how Sony and MS did on the hardware sales on teh back of GTA4. I see it sure helped Europe out with PS3 sales. If it helped Sony in the states it wont be by much. Either way more user base means more and better games for the black beast. Sure would make me happy. " PS3 Hardware boost for the month were less than 30 percent, if I recall right. Xbox360 under 70 percent. Wii 420 percent. (760,000 systems sold, for the second month in a row. Insane.)

Tremblay343
Tremblay343

If someone actually pays them to do this, tell me where i can sign up. Like come on, how obvious is all this?

DullBozer
DullBozer

How do i become an analyst?? its so easy and it doesn't really matter whether your right or wrong, its the perfect job! I predict that sales will drop in may. I predict they will go up again when Fable 2, Gow 2 and Gaiden 2 are released. I predict that one system will sell more then another in America but that doesn't even matter cos we will all have chosen our systems by then. God...

mysterylobster
mysterylobster

Gamespot relies far too heavily on these analysts, especially the ubiquitous Michael Pachter, in their news section.

ShastyMacNasty
ShastyMacNasty

How about this... When the next GTA comes out, it will break the records again, and guess what? That months sales will surge also. Can i Have a corner office with a 7 figure income now too? At least I'm doing it years ahead of time.

artson1966
artson1966

Will be an interesting month with the NPD numbers this week. I am really curious on how Sony and MS did on the hardware sales on teh back of GTA4. I see it sure helped Europe out with PS3 sales. If it helped Sony in the states it wont be by much. Either way more user base means more and better games for the black beast. Sure would make me happy.

CageFury
CageFury

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

CageFury
CageFury

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

ctg867
ctg867

NO!!! YA ****ING THINK????!?!?!?! Biggest game in the last 10 years, by far, comes out for two platforms, breaks just about every record you can, and you say "we expect a surge" . Well no ****ing duh.

taj7575
taj7575

wow. these seriously must be the smartest analysts in the world. WHO in their right mind would think that in a month with one of the mot anticipated games out, there would be a huge surge in sales? who, i beg to ask; who? (sarcasm)

normsta
normsta

I can't believe this article is here. :D Anyone that knows anything about the gamming industry could have predicted this. Better yet i ain't predicting, i'm saying that it will have risen. those analyst should be shot. :P

nate1222
nate1222

I'm going to get thumbed down to Hell for this, but... I've played GTAIV and I actually like San Andreas better. At $60 you're getting a game that's not as fun nor large in scale as a $20 equivelant. GTAIV will sell on its NAME ALONE. That goes for Halo 3 as well. Nonetheless, one damn game isn't going to float an entire industry. I don't think GTAIV will sell like San Andreas did simply because far less people own PS3 or 360 than PS2 and XBox. And, of course, word's getting around regarding the 'disappointments' with GTAIV. I also don't think that the next GTA game will fair as well as SA nor IV.

pencilpusher69
pencilpusher69

The real story will be the 420% spike in Wii sales the week of GTAIV, versus the roughly 70% spike the 360 recieved. Can't wait until the time 2-3 years from now, when Mario Kart laps GTAIV in sales. Fun times!

Adam_the_Nerd
Adam_the_Nerd

"Grand Theft Auto IV launch projected to spike retail software numbers" isn't this really old new? why are these predictions and projections for April being posted now... in May? ahaha

Razzi65
Razzi65

very disappointing game.... i remember when san andreas was released we were saying that WHT ROCKSTAR GONNA PUT IN NEXT GTA?? IT MUST BE PETS OR SOMETHING HUGE... but u know.. they eliminate so many fun factors from previous gta's ....too bad

lordmarkitgs
lordmarkitgs

I think anyone who is old enough to hold a game controller in their hands could have predicted GTA IV would break records.. I think everyone has heard of the GTA series after GTA 3 was released.

darkride66
darkride66

I found a site before that listed Michael Pachter's predictions and, surprisingly enough, the majority of the predictions he makes turn out to be true.

AsianG0d
AsianG0d

This is great news for me after hearing about the tragedy in China

Phazevariance
Phazevariance

I predict that the sun will rise again tomorrow morning and set yet again in the evening. ... thats about how hard the analysts job is

IKRITaiNT
IKRITaiNT

sales up in April, really, do they pay these analysts to figure this out. I predict a surge of ps3 sales when mgs4 hits, now send me a pay check!

cooldude03
cooldude03

let me see GTA IV world record for sales. Now these analysts are predicting high sales. I wonder if they have job openings. Anybody can do that job. By the way Metal Gear Solid 4 and Gears of War 2 are going to have high sales. There you go, now where can I pick up my check?

SolidusHo
SolidusHo

Didn't that dumbass pachter say that gta4 would flop? and that it would be the downfall of taketwo?

gatsbythepig
gatsbythepig

Pachter is a fool, why does anyone listen to this guy? Of course the game will spike sales, but 113%... no freaking way. I expect to see a stagnation amongst all consoles soon. There are still great games coming out but now that next-gen has become this gen, the dust has settled, the excitement has waned and only big titles are helping they are not going to keep stocks rising. Christmas will help greatly but we won't have another year like this for a few years.

Pete5506
Pete5506

The game is good, I could see that happing

JGoWild
JGoWild

No...Not Patcher again, even though its a good news......

zeeshan810
zeeshan810

GOoooo GTA IV Iv ivvvvvvvvvvvv* :D :D :D

zeeshan810
zeeshan810

Because of GTA IV the April sale went up :D go GTA IV

bgres077
bgres077

With the recent blockbusters of SSBB, GTA IV, and now Mario Kart Wii, I would expect sales to slow in a few months.

Nineball2112
Nineball2112

I think that saying April sales surged is a pretty safe prediction. :P

okassar
okassar

Ya everyone's who didn't hear about GTAIV yet is probably going to decide to buy it if they have a 360 or PS3.That=even more cash than Rockstar already racked in.Plus,it's getting close to summer so people are figuring out they'll have more time now and are buying more games.And just so you who are confused about this know, when they expect surge in April,that means the results didn't come in yet and they are expecting what the data will add up to.

galerian86
galerian86

"Analysts expect April sales surge" How do you "expect" something that already happened?

darkride66
darkride66

"Analysts expect April sales surge" Ya think?