Analysts cool on Nintendo '09 outlook

Publisher expects sales up 7.6 percent to $17B next year--the Mario Factory's slowest growth in three years.

The resurgence of the yen, the floundering dollar, and the inflated euro have all amounted to a tumultuous stock price for export-heavy Nintendo. The past year has seen the publisher's ticker fluctuate wildly as analysts and investors alike doubt the publisher's continued ability to enthrall the masses with the Wii and DS.

However, as evidenced earlier today, Nintendo's star power isn't showing signs of wearing off. The publisher reported full fiscal 2008 results that saw net sales rise a dramatic 73 percent year over year to ¥1.67 trillion ($16.2 billion), while profits saw a similarly impressive 47 percent leap to ¥257 billion ($2.5 billion). The tally came in slightly above the ¥1.63 trillion (about $15.6 billion) in revenue Nintendo predicted it would earn in January.

As part of its fiscal year '08 results, Nintendo also outlined its projections for the upcoming financial year. For the six-month period ending September 30, Nintendo expects net sales of ¥760 billion (about $7.2 billion), a year-over-year rise of 9.4 percent, with profits actually dropping off 5.6 percent to ¥125 billion (about $1.2 billion). Nintendo expects the back half of the year to more than make up for initial dipping profits, with full fiscal year profits rising 26.3 percent to ¥325 billion (about $3.1 billion) on revenues of ¥1.8 trillion (about $17.2 billion).

With Nintendo anticipating full year sales up 7.6 percent over this year's impressive haul, analysts have responded in kind by essentially saying, "That's it?" Financial news service Bloomberg reports today that Nintendo's 2009 outlook came in markedly lower than many estimates, thanks in large part to the yen's continued strengthening. Surveying six analysts, Bloomberg found the industry watchers had arrived at a median consensus of ¥337.1 billion (about $3.2 billion). The financial service also noted that Nintendo's 7.6 percent sales gain would be the slowest growth for the publisher in three years.

Nintendo's stock slipped 1.4 percent to ¥57,900 (about $554) per share on the Tokyo Stock Exchange after its earnings announcement, with the publisher's stock down 13 percent on the year.

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Discussion

74 comments
rockstar_88
rockstar_88

I wish I got paid to predict the future, especially if those predictions sucked!

kavadias1981
kavadias1981

73 percent increase last year! I bet the analysts didn't see that coming.

subrosian
subrosian

Necroanux - You're correct but for the wrong reason. Nintendo is export-heavy, they're operating in a country where their money is gaining strength, while the countries they're selling to have declining monetary value. This results in decreased profitability. What's actually happening is a little more complex, but in essence until the US economy cycles back up in mid-2009, things are going to be a bit less glamorous for Nintendo.

anjul
anjul

I think that saying it's going to be Nintendo's slowest year in three years is a bit unfair, seeing as how the past few years have been phenomenal for them in general.

maxsteel86
maxsteel86

Casual games suck. I got no problem with Mario and Sonic (Sonic could do with some more games around him) and Resident Evil:-) but its the casual games that are killing everything! And those mini game things... Please, no more casual games! Just promote the ones already available if you must but no more!!!

twilight-X
twilight-X

maybe if nintendo would make more wiis all around and end the shortage this slow down would have been delayed(not prevented) but to each it's own Nintedo is at perhaps on his glory

necronaux
necronaux

The outlook on a lot of markets is 'cool' because the economy is in the toilet. Analysts need to chill (pun intended). Didn't Nintendo, on the same day as this article went to press release another article touting record sales... " ...the Wii and DS continuing to rule the hardware sales charts, and a multimillion-selling US debut for Super Smash Bros. Brawl, Nintendo has had plenty of good financial news lately. Further evidence of that arrived today, as the company reported "record results in both net sales and income..."

mintvilla144
mintvilla144

the problem with the wii wasnt nintendos fault, its problem was the 3rd party developers. they all thought the wii wasnt going to sell so they all ran a mile, so nintendo had to do all its games, in house and bash out all its major franchises, and they had to do it very quickly to have a strong line up of games, so it wudnt get bashed like the ps3 did for not having any games. then once they sold a ton of systems, like they have, all the 3rd party devs come crawling back, which they have done now so expect to see alot more of diff games on the wii from now on.

markharris31
markharris31

This is a market saturation issue, not fanboy issue. There are only so many people who are going to buy a gaming console, period. What analysts are saying is that the sales GROWTH is going to slow, not that sales in general will regress, or that Nintendo sucks, or that people don't want their products. READ the article and try to comprehend it. It makes sense that sales growth will slow after a few years, it's a very distinct part of a standard product life cycle.

Varoennauraa
Varoennauraa

Someone need to take these ANALysts names and track them to remember them of these "analysises" when they have shown to be bull**** Remember how they made themselves clowns mocking Wii when it was announced. They are part of Sonys and M$'$ propaganda machinery for sure. Otherwice, who the hell would hire them?!?

Belgium_1830
Belgium_1830

Quit calling Nintendo the Mario Factory, please.

ObiKKa
ObiKKa

pencilpusher69 (Wait! Is that a filthy nickname? Just think...) "But if you look at the shelves, there 15 other games for every game that you're citing. Or is it just Nintendo that goes back to their core franchises like Mario, Metroid, Zelda, and Smash? I rarely see the detractors on here say "man, I'm tired of Halo 3, Jak and Daxter, Final Fantasy, Call of Duty, Grand Theft Auto and it's bajillion clones, GH3, Warhawk, Need for Speed, Forza, Gran Turismo, Twisted Metal, God of War"... Both of the other systems follow the exact same model that Nintendo does: When you have a hit, follow it up." Mate, you just don't get it, you don't get it, do you? It's all about the illusion, and the approach that Nintendo takes to making their so-called 'sequels' of their popular franchises. The illusion, both technically, & psychologically is that Nintendo's sequels are seen by many people, including myself, to be either rehashes, or almost rehashes of their predecessors. They're just so similar in gameplay style as their predecessors (Super Mario Galaxy may be an exception, but that one clearly shows that the developer was struggling to make it look 'new' - ie. being set in space & all, but that the core gameplay mechanics & the main characters & enemies are essentially similar & the same, respectively.). Of course, some improves on their previous instalments by having more additions to make them better, but more of the same, essentially, like SSBB. But, please don't point me to other franchises like Street Fighter, King of Fighters, and so on, please, don't. Sure, they're improvements on the past games, but it's all about illusion, and the Mario Factory games attracts far more criticisms for that very reason than any other franchises from other publishers. We just feel that they're very boring, and so incredibly wearying, because they're just SO similar to each other! OK, I would probably make an exception for Zelda, & Mario Kart, but man, (Zelda) very dumbed-down gameplay mechanics that aren't really RPG-ish - not enough weapons & so on. Who cares if it's an action-adventure franchise. Instead it's the way that Nintendo deliberately designs it, really like they just only care about catering to the under-10 kids, and some older gals likes them as their favourites, but who are they to influence us more knowledgeable gamers, huh? Lol, the weakness of the Wii's hardware is really showing itself in the latest Mario Kart. The Wii is reportedly said to lack the shaders capability that the OLDER Xbox had!!! I mean, how crazy is that!?! Look, all this is focused on Nintendo's 1st-party games & the kind of impressions that many of us are feeling & getting from seeing all of their games. Other franchises from other publishers hardly suffers this curse, coz they feel kind of to very unique on a game by game basis.

98scoutgandia
98scoutgandia

there's still going to be a very good game called the conduit and it will have high voltage's new graphics engine!!!! just google it to look for vids...

ghost867
ghost867

Well rumor has it Wii and DS sales in Japan have hit, or are hitting a peak. I expect the same to happen at the end of this year.

yakkosmurf
yakkosmurf

I don't think the demand for the Wii is going to cool much. The Dollar is going to continue to lose value throughout 2008, and if the Euro stays at its currently inflated level, they will suffer in the profit department, since I expect them to keep their prices the same as they are now. So, they will sell the same number of consoles, but their profit on each one will be thinner as they lose to the unfavorable exchange rate.

saintsrowCS
saintsrowCS

so many different things, this is suppose to be the PS3 year, Nintendo has record breaking sales, analyst said the industries growth is peaking but expect Nintendo to do better am i missing something here?

osxgp
osxgp

After the release of SSBB, I don't know what Nintendo has in store for us as far as blockbusters go. I know Mario Kart for the Wii is coming, but it doesn't have the selling power of Smash Bros. I guess I should check upcoming releases.

Pete5506
Pete5506

Cant wait to see where they go

dr3b
dr3b

Publisher expects sales up 7.6 percent to $17B next year--the Mario Factory's slowest growth in three years. % increases are increasingly hard meet as it requires even greater sales just to make the same % The key is to make a greater profit or at least the same.

nate1222
nate1222

I'm not a fan boy: during most of the N64 and GameCube eras, I was pissed at Nintendo. Only recently have I kissed and made up. The Wii is the reason. But ALL console makers have mascots. PS2 - Ratchet & Clank, XBox - Master Chief, Nintendo - Mario, and sometimes Link or Donkey Kong. But these guys say nothing about Halo, Sonic, Mickey Mouse or that bland ass stick of gum in the gum commercials (I forget which brand-THAT'S how corny it is). Every major entertainment entity has a mascot of some sort. At least Mario has some quality material to his name.

jeffokiecorry2
jeffokiecorry2

Maybe we should tell Disney to stop using Mickey Mouse. Mario is Nintendo. Mickey is Disney. Sure there are other properties, but come on...no disrespect, but companies use what works.

Ike_Master
Ike_Master

there's all these people that keep hating on Nintendo, but the only reason they do is because they're ticked off that they blew $400 bucks on a system thats not even half as good as the wii...

kainthewild
kainthewild

I don't know why ppl bash Nintendo so much. They make quality games for everyone from 2 to 52. I have a Wii and I am getting my $250 dollars worth every day. As far as Mario comments as he is being used to much looking @ the other sequels (Halo , COD, Final Fantasy, GTA) they are using the same formula but improving on it. I agree with pencilpusher69 totally.

spike6958
spike6958

@ everyone complaining about Nintendo "over-using" there core games. There core games are they reason Nintendo survived the 2D era when all the other companys died (except Sega but they didn't last long in the console business), the fan's both new and old expect at least one new Mario/Zelda/Metroid game per console, and Nintendo are more than happyy to make them because they are why they are still here and why we have any videogames today, think about it God of War is prity much a more Violent version of Zelda, Halo is just a Violent version of Metroid, and as for Mario every other platfoming game in the world is just a bad attemt to copy it and most of the time add more violance, see a pattern there allmost all the games that have come from out on the PS1/PS2/PS3/PSP/Xbox/Xbox360 have happend because the company making them have copied from Nintendo in some way, but just because it's given a new name and an new charater and slightly altered storyline make them more violant, add foul language and shiny new graphics, it's classed as a completly new thing, where as the classic games that use the same charaters and just expand on there storylines and don't have/need all the violance and foul language there classed as repetitive and dull, also what is wrong with Nintendo using Mario charaters in there sport games,it's not like the only way you can play sport games is with Nintendo charaters, you can choose to play Golf/BasketBall/Football/Tennis with either Mario and his friend on a Nintendo console or play with real teams/players on any of the consoles you own because they allways come out on them all, and there is nothing wrong with been given a choice, i would much prefer the Mario version to be availble to play but deside not to than been force to play with real teams/players because there the only ones that are out.

xgalacticax
xgalacticax

Well, they know their business. They've been in the game longer than their rivals.

HamsterOfFury
HamsterOfFury

pencilpusher to add to dewd I would suggest that Mario as a character is overused. It's not just Lara Croft in Tomb Raider every couple of years, or all the FInal Fantasies it's the fact that along with MarioKart and Mario Brothers, or even Brawl it seems that Nintendo are far too quick to jump on the Mario characters to flog off as many cartoony games as possible...Is Mario's appeal really that high amongst long time Nintendo fans and owners that they'd rather have Mario Tennis than a tennis game, or Mario Basketball instead of a standard basketball game or Mario golf instead of a standard golf game? Mario's an all rounder, Luigi's a bit quicker, Toad is quick and agile, Bowser's slow and strong, Peach is skillful etc etc. I think it would be massively short sighted to bemoan Mario Brothers or Mario Kart incarnations on each console (afterall, Playstation has it's long term series' as do the Microsoft consoles and the Sega consoles did also...Indeed now it appears that Sega are whoring out THEIR characters at every possible chance just as the Mario characters are....Sega Golf now?! With the Sega characters as your caddies?!?! What?) Part of the reason I'm steering clear of a Wii (although No More Heroes would nearly be enough to win me over on it's own!) is this kind of thing..I want to play an Olympics game this summer...I'd rather play the official Beijing '08 on my PS3 than a Mario (and Sonic) themed official game on the Wii... So Kudos to Mario Bros, kudos to Kart and Brawl but for me, Mario and his friends are far far too overused by the Nintendo...However people buy them in their millions so clearly I'm wrong, but I'm happy to be wrong.

pencilpusher69
pencilpusher69

dewd4 Dewd "Super Mario this is my point. Arnet you tired of remakes of the same old franchises? Games like No More Heroes were better because it was original and a great game that isnt a remake. Im sick of things like Mario Galaxy...its different than 64 because its in space..yer " So the only difference was Mario Galaxy was in space??? Seriously? I thought it was that we were playing a platform game like NONE OTHER IN CREATION. I've played SM64 to death, and am completely at a loss for this. You can say there are similarities, but to say it's the same thing again is completely...well, it calls into question if you played the game or not. As for the claim that Nintendo doesn't make enough new games, and just does rehashes, I guess you have to ignore things like Geist, Eternal Darkness, Pikmin, Battalion Wars, Excite Truck, Professor Layton, Brain Age, Electroplankton, Hotel Dusk, Chibi robo, Animal Crossing, and a virtual ton of other games I can't think of in the last few years off of the top of my head. I guess it's easy to single them out when their flagships are as big as they are. But if you look at the shelves, there 15 other games for every game that you're citing. Or is it just Nintendo that goes back to their core franchises like Mario, Metroid, Zelda, and Smash? I rarely see the detractors on here say "man, I'm tired of Halo 3, Jak and Daxter, Final Fantasy, Call of Duty, Grand Theft Auto and it's bajillion clones, GH3, Warhawk, Need for Speed, Forza, Gran Turismo, Twisted Metal, God of War"... Both of the other systems follow the exact same model that Nintendo does: When you have a hit, follow it up.

x_SuperMario_x
x_SuperMario_x

no DLC, thats another complaint. i need more songs for GH3 =l

x_SuperMario_x
x_SuperMario_x

yeah, this summer looks bad too. hopefully small developers can keep us entertained with WiiWare. and Brawl being released several months after Japan's release.... thats another complaint of mine, why does Nintendo have a release date for every different country in the world? seriously, just name the same day for America, Europe, Australia, Japan, and others. i don't even live in the UK and i feel bad for them. but they got Mario Kart already, so its not AS unfair. =)

dewd4
dewd4

Yer i love those franchises but im annoyed because its brawl for europe, then this secret project nintendo has for christmas (i bet its animal crossing which is a great game:P) and then it looks empty from them on :/

x_SuperMario_x
x_SuperMario_x

my biggest complaint is storage. so fix it Nintendo =l the 360's and PS3's storage space can run circles around the Wii's.

x_SuperMario_x
x_SuperMario_x

dewd4: Nintendo does tend to overly-milk their franchises instead of designing new ones, but somehow i still enjoyed Brawl, TP, Galaxy, and Metroid. in a perfect world, Nintendo would release fewer, greater remakes of old franchises, while making new franchises that are equally as impressive. oh, and in that perfect world there is also 3rd party support =)

dewd4
dewd4

Super Mario this is my point. Arnet you tired of remakes of the same old franchises? Games like No More Heroes were better because it was original and a great game that isnt a remake. Im sick of things like Mario Galaxy...its different than 64 because its in space..yer.:( Zelda Twilight Princess was literally oot and if you deny that then you must be blind. Brawl is the same (but then again it has to be) and same with Metriod. The games are good but just nothing is different or makes the franchise feel fresh.

x_SuperMario_x
x_SuperMario_x

yeah 3rd party still sucks. but High Voltage is making a FPS called The Conduit, which looks promising. and a MMOG is supposed to be in the works. and if you look at the Top 10 games "coming soon" for the Wii, only 2 are published my Nintendo. so sometime this year i think we'll start to see some good 3rd party support.

halosniper52
halosniper52

Well does not really matter gta is coming

x_SuperMario_x
x_SuperMario_x

if you haven't enjoyed Brawl, Galaxy, Zelda, Metroid, or any other popular titles, you might have to wait a while...

halosniper52
halosniper52

u named 4 good games Metroid sucks but thats only 4 and those games u cna beat in a day but ssbb thats a game u play alot of but the point is they really dont have that many great games 1st party pwns 3rd party sucks im out now work.

halosniper52
halosniper52

well mario I do have a wii im just waiting for the day a good game comes out lol

x_SuperMario_x
x_SuperMario_x

22 million people would say that the Wii has no games? well Brawl, Super Mario Galaxy, Metroid, Zelda, and Mario Kart are all multi-million sellers. so you'd have to argue with everyone that bought any of those games.

halosniper52
halosniper52

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

x_SuperMario_x
x_SuperMario_x

and halosniper. whats funny is, you hate the Wii, but yet i see you on every Wii-related update. i call shenanigans. you probably love your Wii.

x_SuperMario_x
x_SuperMario_x

i know you think it sucks. but 22 million people would disagree with you. so your opinion really doesn't matter. and don't they teach you how to spell in school?

blackie8
blackie8

thing is people dont know this the production of the wii has set records no gaming company has ever done mass production at this scale so beat that

halosniper52
halosniper52

mario not u aging and wht u think i care that wii is selling more no not really im just saying it sucks im done wiht u mario

x_SuperMario_x
x_SuperMario_x

halosniper: do you have anything better to do than bash consoles which are currently selling more than yours?

halosniper52
halosniper52

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

dewd4
dewd4

I used to respect nintento in their glory days of the nintendo 64 and i still respected them with the gamecube...heck i even respected them when the wii came out..then 2 months later i realised that this wasnt a game console it was just a gimmick :( I play the gamecube more than the wii now because im so sick of these casual games. Fine nintendo i dont mind you aiming the wii at casual gamers but im so sick of 1 decent game a year that is just a remake of an old franchise. Ninty sort yourself out please and make the next console(not toy)...better. And seriously im not a graphics whore or anything like that but if they dont make their next "console" more powerful then ill just give up on hope for them.. Rant over. Go zelda you rule! haha

Zerosumgame
Zerosumgame

The market is going to crash because of the loom possiblilty of a depression magnitude economic melt down on the horizon. Analysts will be very desperate to come up with something creative inorder to keep their jobs.