Analyst: Xbox One, PS4 to ship 5-6 million units this holiday

Robert W. Baird analyst expecting "slightly higher" Xbox One sales during launch window.

Total worldwide shipments for the Xbox One and PlayStation will reach 5-6 million units each this holiday, Robert W. Baird analyst Colin Sebastian said in a note to investors today.

Sebastian predicted that both consoles would ship 1.5-2 million each in North America, with the remaining 2.5-3 million coming from international markets.

Though he anticipates identical shipment figures, Sebastian gave an edge to Microsoft, at least in North America.

"While many forecasts still give an edge to Sony/PS4 in North America sales, we continue to expect similar or even slightly higher sales of Xbox One by the end of the launch window," Sebastian said.

Sebastian also called out the significant mark-ups both consoles are seeing on eBay right now as an indication of popularity. Xbox One preorder sales on eBay are close to $800, while PS4 orders are going for around $600, he said.

The PS4 launches November 15 for $400, while the Xbox One will debut on November 22 for $500.

Also in his note to investors today, Sebastian addressed this year's biggest game so far, Grand Theft Auto V. He estimated that the open-world game has shipped more than 22 million units globally to date, with an estimation for a total of 25 million by the end of March. Take-Two Interactive will report earnings for its latest financial period next Tuesday, October 29.

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Eddie Makuch

Eddie Makuch is a news editor at GameSpot, and would like to see the Whalers return to Hartford.
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205 comments
danielv123
danielv123

Really? This holiday? Xbox one will have an edge on PS4? Right because the Xbox one can be bought all over the world... Oh wait! Some countries need to wait till next year before they can get an Xbox one.

slainta
slainta

1.5-2 millions +  2.5-3 millions makes from 4 to 5 millions.  Not 5-6 millions. That goes with the Xbox selling 2.5-3 millions outside NA and ending up selling slightly more than the PS4 in NA. Not a chance. 

MooncalfReviews
MooncalfReviews

"We continue to expect similar or even slightly higher sales of Xbox One by the end of the launch window..."

Credibility lost.

randalmcdaniels
randalmcdaniels

when i read xbox one to ship 6 million units i just pictured hundreds of trucks just backing up to a 1000ft ledge and just dumping them into the ocean

benjimoola
benjimoola

Xbox one selling at profit ps4 at loss... Ps4 may have more market share like 1million more sales but xbox will be making more cash to improve experience and solidify their foundation. I know it may cost more to build the ps4 but selling it at loss is a mistake sony is making. North america and UK will likely be xbox zone as it is already.

B4RK3R
B4RK3R

"PS4 is more powerful than the Xbox One which makes It a better console" sounds just like :"PS3's cell processor is more powerful than the Xbox 360's processor"

When in all reality the Xbox 360 was a better gaming console for both single player games and online, with better exclusives and user friendly programming. I feel a repeat coming on with the Next-Gen console which will make a lot of Sony fanboys upset when they realize they were wrong.

joluvsrnb
joluvsrnb

Did xbox pay u much for this abomination of an article

moesuir
moesuir

but....but.....SonySpyStation has voice and facial recognition! Sony wins!!!

Breyant
Breyant

It's easy to disagree with these analysts but I actually agree with him this time. All that matters in sales this holiday is who can make more consoles available. It doesn't matter which is better or more popular, the console that has the most units will gain the higher sales, and I believe that will be Xbox One. After the initial launch rush, then we'll start to see which console more people are interested in.

19James89
19James89

I think this analyst is talking out of his ring piece.

Biotasticmeat
Biotasticmeat

Microsoft is going to rock this party. Keep up the good work Xbox! You'll always be number 1. Speaking of one, I cant wait for my day one edition of the Xbox One! LESS THAN A MONTH IM SO EXCITED! :D

b74kd3th
b74kd3th

They better release enough so everyone that wants one can have one and cut the low life scalpers out

Darnytoads
Darnytoads

I really hope they killed whatever animals they slaughtered in a humane fashion after reading through the stomach contents, seeing what the kidney and liver revealed about the future and then after boiling the bones investigated what those predictions revealed.  I also wish they would wait until all the body parts have told their various stories about the future so we wouldn't keep reading different opinions.  I sure hope PETA doesn't hear about this. 

AzureBonds76
AzureBonds76

My prediction is that Sony has picked up some market share in the United States after E3 this summer. I'm glad that MS have reversed their anti consumer policies that they were fishing around with earlier this year, but some gamers have long memories and won't forget so easily. I was actually planning on picking up a Xbone before all this stuff happened, since most of my friends now game on the 360.

I get the impression that most level headed adult consumers tend to lean towards Sony this next generation. Competition is good in the marketplace and I'm very happy that there was another option aside from the Xbox.

I look foward towards playing certain games on my 360 (Dark Souls 2 anyone) after the 15th of November, but my Live membership is going to expire for good.

dnmt
dnmt

Is it just me or has Gamespot been really pro-Xbone lately, and without good reason?

GreekTheGeek
GreekTheGeek

Let's see sony had beyond, the last of us, the puppateer, journey, rain, god of war ascension , ni no kuni tales of xillia all released exclusively with gt6 to come, Microsoft seems to have abandoned Xbox 360 bar gears of war judgement so unless they release Alan wake sequel or lost odyssey I know I'll get more exclusives on a sony console, so far I'm waiting for Santa Monica studio the developer of this generation Naughty Dog and quantic dreams to release info about their upcoming games, sure dead rising 3 looks interesting but didn't the first one that was exclusive to Xbox finally made it to ps3, titanfall has me bored so no thank you xb1

Grenadeh
Grenadeh

@danielv123 Some countries have to wait till next year to get a PS4 or they have to pay 2000 dollars. 

Dresden05
Dresden05

@ducktalex it's more a cost return and how much that is worth to you 

PS4  is $400 at launch

which is going to be minimum 7 year console = $57 per year (already not that bad)

then split that to weeks = $1.10 per week

then divide that into gaming hour/ enjoyment for example 10 hours gaming per week = $0.10 

so every hour of enjoyment on the PS4 is $0.10 so for me the new console and the upgraded graphics is not about money but enjoyment

Grenadeh
Grenadeh

@B4RK3R Wait wait wait, wait. Okay. I'm on your side but let's not be dishonest. PS3 exclusives were better than 360 exclusives. Let's not kid ourselves.

God of War sucks balls but it is definitely worth one playthrough of all six games, for the story and experience. The same goes for Uncharted and TLOU. Heavy Rain and BTS aren't games so they don't really count. That leaves you with Warhawk, StarHawk, Infamous, Killzone, Resistance, and LBP. None of which are particularly good at all. 

But, let's look at Xbox. 

Alan Wake is a very good game, so is the stand alone. Halo 3, 4, ODST, Reach, CE HD remaster - are solid shooters and make for massively fun LAN party experiences. Gears, which I don't like much at all for multitudes of reasons - including my 10+ year hatred for the clunky unreal engine - is a great franchise if you like that type of game. Crackdown, Ninety nine nights, Dead Rising, those are all quite good as well. Last Remnant and Lost Odyssey, sure we'll even call those good.

I hate Sony kids as much as the next guy but when it comes to graphically beautiful exclusives with decent stories, MS doesn't have those. Other than Alan Wake, and Halo.

If you mean Xbox One, yea, I'm with you there. Titanfall, DR3, Ryse, Forza, Project Spark,  Sunset Overdrive, and probably Quantum Break will easily trump any Sony exclusives that come out within the first year, including The Order. The Order may turn out to be good but it's going to be Sony's Gears, so be real.

The problem is whether or not MS continues to provide quality exclusives through the console's life-span, something they admittedly did not do with Xbox or 360.

MooncalfReviews
MooncalfReviews

@B4RK3R 

I've been an xbox 360 fanboy all this generation, but come on, better exclusives? Where?

angrycreep
angrycreep

@B4RK3R  I think it will be a close race, and Microsoft will pull ahead, at least here in the states for sure. Another thing with the PS3 and the 360. How many times did we saw games that would look better in the inferior console than what they did in the superior PS3? People seems to think, that just because the other console has  a few more bells and whistles than the other one, that games will look and play better. Probably 80% of the times the games would look identical to the one in the other console. I do believe that other than first party games, I think the games will look just about the same in both consoles. You should make your decision based on what console will have the games that you would like the most, and not because who's more powerful than the other.  I pick the Xbox one, because of that.

19James89
19James89

@B4RK3R Better exclusives? Nah bro, you're chatting bare breeze blad.

Grenadeh
Grenadeh

@Breyant I think that's partially due to parents, and multi-plat owners, who may not be 100% in their convictions about which console to purchase. As the 15th creeps closer, I'm starting to have a hole burn through my pants where my wallet would proverbially be - Sure I can wait an extra week for my XBO pre-order because it's the one I actually want, but I only cancelled my PS4 pre-order a couple days ago. I could be turned.

wrexness
wrexness

@Breyant  That's but all real world signs point to MS but producing nearly as many consoles as quickly as Sony. All you have to do is ask the retailers how many of each console they've been allotted, and it's at least 3 or 4:1 in favor of Sony.

MooncalfReviews
MooncalfReviews

@Biotasticmeat Keep telling yourself that you're still excited, despite the constant bad press and bad news. You might make yourself believe it, so you don't get sad over the wasted money.

b74kd3th
b74kd3th

You're imagination is astonishing

Grenadeh
Grenadeh

@AzureBonds76 Not really. Most hipster whining self absorbed bitches lean towards Sony. They were slighted by some imaginary offense from Microsoft and so, like childish bitches, they permanently give them the silent treatment. Except replace silent by "Go on a personal crusade of bashing and disinformation-spreading" against them.

"All of this stuff" didn't happen. Nothing actually happened. They had policies in place, and like ignorant children, the vocal minority of gamers on the internet cried relentlessly about it without asking any questions, without allowing any opportunities to explain, and Microsoft failed hardcore to try to explain because they A) didn't want to give it away or b) had no plan.

Regardless, nothing happened. They had a direction they wanted to go in, potentially in the direction of progress, and the immature majority of gamers stopped it from happening. Get over it.

Hurvl
Hurvl

@dnmt It's always been pro-console imo and before this "visual update" it used to put Xbox 360 at the top of the list when listing reviews of a multiplatform game, but I never put much weight into that. It's also been accused of being Playstation friendly and generally nerd rage/troll inducing. I don't personally think the news section has gotten better or worse or that you see any bias, except for hot topics that could stir up a shitstorm in the comments section.

Grenadeh
Grenadeh

@GreekTheGeek Except only 150 people have ever played Journey, Rain, or Puppateer. God of War Ascension was hands down the worst game in the entire series. Ni No Kuni amazes me in it's ability to actually sell - I keep hearing how good it is but every time I pick it up to bring it to the cash register, I'm immediately dissuaded by the lack of any description on the back of the box. It looks just like every nameless, anime-style animated JRPG on PS3, of which there are far too many. Does this game actually have any appeal? I WANT to buy it but I seriously see no reason.

To me, if an RPG is going to look remotely "old-school", it needs to do so by looking awesome like FF or Chrono Trigger or Xenogears or the Mana games did. Anyway end digression.

And no, Dead Rising 1 never came to PS3. It's not really  a win though, DR1 isn't that great of a game.

darklordpalin
darklordpalin

@GreekTheGeek Titianfall, dead rising, halo, Forza 5, ryse, beats killzone, knack, gran turismo, and infamous. Plus Ryse, and titianfall(and a couple more to be released later next year) are new titles that have promise. PS4 has only a couple of "New titles"

moesuir
moesuir

@GreekTheGeek Let's see PS4 has Killzone and Knack and ?.....and ? ...........and ???

danielv123
danielv123

You mean Brazil? Right? Right plural. In how many countries will the Xbox one be released in in coming November? Answer; 13. Ps4? Answer 32.

Grenadeh
Grenadeh

@wrexness @Breyant Somehow I highly doubt that Sony created more consoles than MS when MS easily has more manufacturing ability at their hands and all of the changes they made are software changes, so there is  no gap in manufacturing. 

Grenadeh
Grenadeh

@Hurvl @dnmt Is that why ALL GameSpot reviews have higher PS3 scores than 360?

GreekTheGeek
GreekTheGeek

Forza 5 yawn what was different in the trailer you ve seen here on GameStop shiny cars but nothing else. Titanfall is the greyest game on e3 dead rising prob will make it to ps3 in due time like below that was previously exclusive is coming to ps4 one too! You think that the powerhouse that is naughty dog will have nothing to rrelease for ps4 ? Let's see how many original titles that were exclusive and good were realeased in the last year for Xbox 360 hmmmm. Ps3 and ps4 have the backing of uncharted series the last of us creators little big planet creative team quantic dreams thirst for new approach in games. Everyone is entitled to their opinion and their choice at the end of the day if you go with xb1 enjoy if you go with ps4 enjoy both will have their exclusive games like this gen ps3 had heavy rain uncharted the last of us beyond two souls Ni no kuni puppateer rain journey tales of xillia infamous sly cooper ratchet and clank resistance kill zone mod nation racers gran truismo god of war Xbox had gears of war Alan wake lost odyssey blue dragon halo super meat boy fable forza crackdown apart from that I fail to remember any more games for me quantity and quality is sony all the way. If you are happy with Xbox stick with it but there's nothing wrong in people choosing other products based on their interests. If you have young kids they ll have a laugh with kinect if you play mainly shooters may be Xbox is the only console for you. But for the rest of us who desire more creativity and wider range of games sony has shown just this past year that it can wipe the floor with Microsoft when it comes to original fun games . I'm not a sony fan boy but honest. I had two Xbox 360 and I wouldn't re buy the console if I didn't like it but the last couple of years had hardly used it that is why I'm personally choosing sony ps4 because I know in the long term my tastes for different generation games will be better catered for.

GreekTheGeek
GreekTheGeek

Infamous second son shits all over titanfall and dead rising 3