Analyst: Xbox One may have 3x more launch units than PS4

Robert W. Baird predicts Microsoft's console may be more readily available, though supply for both likely to be "constrained."

The Xbox One may have two to three times more launch units than the PlayStation 4 this holiday, according to Robert W. Baird analyst Colin Sebastian.

In a note to investors today, he said this superior launch allocation would give Microsoft an initial advantage, but noted supply for both next-generation systems will likely be "constrained," leading to potential shortages. His estimations are based on supply chain checks.

Sebastian also said the tides are turning for Microsoft, following its dramatic policy reversal last month that saw the company roll back various controversial features.

"Despite losing the headline battle at E3, we believe that Xbox One has regained some momentum in recent weeks, in part due to modifications in policies related to online connectivity and used games," Sebastian said.

Sebastian also discussed the prospects for the Wii U, saying its suite of holiday titles will make or break the system.

"Nintendo's Wii U remains challenged, needs a price cut, and the fate of the platform will likely rest on the popularity of Nintendo's holiday software lineup," he said.

High-profile first-party Wii U games due out this year include Pikmin 3 (August), The Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker HD (October), Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze (November), and Super Mario 3D World (December).

Written By

Eddie Makuch is a news editor at GameSpot, and would like to see the Whalers return to Hartford.

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Discussion

1617 comments
justerthought
justerthought

How does this guy know there will be more XB1 launch units. Truth is he doesn't. He is an analyst. Analysts make intelligent guesses not issue hard facts.

When your console is trailing in the pre-orders due to a failed launch and you're up against a console that looks far more powerful, what do you do. You try to steal sales by paying some analyst a back hander to speculate that there will be PS4 shortages, hoping stragglers will switch to XB1 to make sure they can get hold of a next gen console at launch.

Dirty old MS is at it again. If you cannot run fast enough in a race, smack your apponent in the knee caps ...lol

SOUL-ST4RR
SOUL-ST4RR

The article says that they will have more launch units. It doesn't say if they are sold units or shipped. Let's not make more to this than what it is....

blue_shift_91
blue_shift_91

lol. people are suddenly concerned with the credibility of the article when it's not just a sony compliment.

G-Legend
G-Legend

I love how this analyst came out of no where with this. Seeing as I read a rumor earlier in the year about the X1 having issues with their eSRAM and APU (some credible sources) that would mean that M$ is gambling on pushing out as many units as possible to compensate for this.

vackillers
vackillers

People are still stupid enough to believe MS has changed their policy and wont re-enable ALL the DRM and online crap later down the line when people are stuck with the thing.... I'm not convinced on this article that MS have 3x the amount, I call that bullshit to he be honest, there HAD to have been some MAJOR financial losses in order warrent that absolutely massive change in their policies.

A lot of people figured MS deserved a reward for doing that... sure, absolutely and have got some sales back, and it would make sense that they might have sold x3 more since that announcement then sony, but overall.... there is no way they have outsold sony in its TOTAL sales... thats fucking laughable at best, they've been playing catchup since febuary.... AT BEST they've caught up to sony sales... not over-taken... thats media fucking hype running a muck...........

I'll always be a PC gamer, but there is so much bullsh!t coming out about the next gen consoles.... the media just needs to get REAL.... there is basiclly next to NOTHING to back this up at all....... lol

Deathsmiles76
Deathsmiles76

Yeah seriously look up directx11.2 it's not just a slight update I seen a video of what it can do compared to directx11 don't cut it short because your a Sony loyalist

OldKye
OldKye

Another "may have" first the PS4 has 3 times the Xbox one units now the Xbox One has 3 times the units of PS4 lol

*November comes* Well looks like they made the same number of units go figure.

Why do I feel like these articles are deliberate trolls by "Analysts" so they can stir up fans and see how they are feeling in order to write more articles.

dmastor
dmastor

If this is true PS shot themselves in the foot again it seem like every launch they are short by a big number when Christmas comes and parents need to buy the next thing they not going to wait for sony they will by whatever is in stock if you have kids you understand saying we signed up on waiting list to your kids not going to work nor most adult wouldn't bother they just by the xbox one because both system are similar and store will more then likey explain it's 100 more because of kinect and tv features with will appeal to adults. I'm getting both but I wait until new god of war and uncharted before I get PS4

19James89
19James89

This analyst is making a brazen prediction and yet people are taking this as fact. The Xbox One may have 3x the times the launch units than Sony's PS4, but that means little if those units are still sat on the shelves months after the launch.

myungish
myungish

Of course they would have more launch units. They have NSA funding.

Bellum_Sacrum
Bellum_Sacrum

It doesn't take a genius to realize Xbox Ones will be more readily available. People will be getting PS4s instead.

feleas
feleas

Xbox One more reason to get a PS4.

TenraiSenshi
TenraiSenshi

I wonder what he's basing this statement on. Does he have a detailed understanding of Microsoft's and Sony's manufacturing detail? Or is this just pure speculation based on little evidence? 

It would be nice if we got the "why" and not just the "what", otherwise how are we meant to buy into what's being said? These analysts need to explain themselves more.

MrDouglas
MrDouglas

Come the holidays, "Xbox One may have 3x more units left on the shelves unsold..."

orthodox1976
orthodox1976

@jinflorida First you call Sony customers "scum" and then you tell them to relax because you're getting a Sony console, too?

Sounds like somebody forgot to take their schizo-pills today! Don't worry, you'll be all better soon.

t3ero2zero
t3ero2zero

@Bellum_Sacrum funny as sony is the cheaper unit you would think there will be the one who need to sell more?

19James89
19James89

@t3ero2zero What country are you referring to here? I guarantee the Xbox hasn't sold out in Japan lol. 

t3ero2zero
t3ero2zero

ink about the wiiu it not sold to well over here but people still dont know its out yet lol.

but if they make a better model or a wiiu2 might save the wii platform oh and the 3ds and dsi are massive in the uk

19James89
19James89

@t3ero2zeroThe Xbox One is guaranteed to do well in the UK because the UK is the only other country that Xbox does well in. 

As for Japan, the PS3 didn't shift more than 7 million units, so I don't think the PS4 will do particularly well over there. 

I think the Wii U has the potential to out sell both the Xbox One and the PS4 in Japan. 

t3ero2zero
t3ero2zero

@19James89 the UK it looks like it doing ok over here but sony is from japan there going to pick what there make over in japan

WolfGrey
WolfGrey

@feleas @WolfGrey @TenraiSenshi  

The guy is a joke and is well known for these kind of articles lol

That and not using spellchecker...not proofreading....not researching the material...and so on...

dmastor
dmastor

@WolfGrey that is true but the UK and US is most of the market! that's why Wii and Xbox outsold ps3 they focus on the bigger markets. 

WolfGrey
WolfGrey

@SirNormanislost  

360 sold better in the UK.

However it sold abysmally everywhere else cept for the US.

feleas
feleas

@SirNormanislost it's more popular world-wide according to people who voted on that link I posted heh.

joyfilth
joyfilth

@feleas @onig1989 @WolfGrey @19James89  

The specs has nothing to do with. PS 3 specs are more powerful than 360 and it has never worked at its true potential. Also there are some third party games that looks better on 360 for example Skyrim. It will depend on how developers adapt to the console to unleash the real potential of them.

feleas
feleas

@onig1989 @feleas @WolfGrey @19James89 .... really? did you NOT read the system specs of the PS4 and Xbox One and compare? Xbox One is more comparable to the PS3 in terms of hardware, still stronger than the PS3 but that's the harsh reality of the PS4. When Sony moved into gaming entertainment, they struck a deal with the company that fabricates hardware for such entertainment. This contract prevents Microsoft and Nintendo from using the same level of tech that Sony is using. Reason why as you say, "a better game in graphics than Ryze" is because when game developers make games, they have to first make it compatible with the less powered system so that their game can be available for any (xbox, pc, ps, wii). it's how the market works. you'll find your answer when PS4 and Xbox One have their first cross-console game. Compare images, you'll find that the PS4 will have a bit more in terms of graphic power if you have a Xbox One screenshot next to the exact same PS4 screenshot.

Why am I defending PS4 when I've been a Xbox player for years? because I've always felt comfortable with sticking to Microsoft, and yet I always recognized that Sony's hardware has always been one step ahead of Microsoft for their consoles.

dmastor
dmastor

@feleas @19James89 @MrDouglas Most who voted at kids who can't even afford the system they wishing mom or dad will by it, PS fans have alot of online presents but lack buying power we saw that in last gen when Wii and xbox sold more then ps3 but Playstations fans filled up online forums. I guess Wii players don't care to defend and xbox fan have a life outside of games.

19James89
19James89

@feleas @WolfGrey @19James89 Graphics aren't important to a lot of people - and I doubt there will be any noticeable difference between the graphics of the Xbox One and the PS4.

19James89
19James89

@WolfGrey Yes very true, but then you have to take into account that Xbox is also geared towards non-gamers. People who want a hub underneath their TV's which will enable them to watch films, have a cable subscription, listen to music and chat to people on Skype.

WolfGrey
WolfGrey

@feleas @WolfGrey @19James89  

And faster Ram, more gb of ram dedicated to gaming...and so on

Almost half of Xbone's Ram goes to the OS...

7gb of Ps4's Ram goes to gaming with only 1gb going to the OS.

WolfGrey
WolfGrey

@19James89 @feleas  

But at the same time keep in mind a casual gamer will most likely will go for the cheaper choice.

Plus with PS4 with Plus you get Two free indies(including Don't Starve), Drive Club PS+ edition, plus Planetside 2 and Warframe launch day one f2p.

It's better deal overall for even a casual.

feleas
feleas

@19James89 @feleas I don't know, reading the terms of service with the section about the Kinect for the Xbox One made me go, "LOL NOPE! AIN'T SPYING ON MY FAMILY!"

19James89
19James89

@feleas Maybe so, but that doesn't take into account the non-gamers or casual gamers who will purchase the Xbox One.