Analyst: US sales trends will remain negative until GTAV

Sterne Agee analyst does not foresee turnaround until Rockstar’s open-world game arrives in September, believes BioShock Infinite sold as many as 750,000 units in March.

The NPD Group will report United States industry sales tomorrow, and the results will not be pretty, nor will they turn around anytime soon. That's the opinion of Sterne Agee analyst Arvind Bhatia, who told investors today that March sales are expected to be down 10 to 15 percent.

Negative trends will continue until the release of Grand Theft Auto V in September followed by the launch of Microsoft and Sony next-generation platforms either in October or November, he argued.

Bhatia said BioShock Infinite is likely to be the best-selling title in March, with an estimated sellthrough in the US of 700,000 to 750,000 units on the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 combined. The NPD Group does not track PC software. BioShock Infinite will help publisher Take-Two Interactive see its March sales rise 70 percent year-on-year, Bhatia said.

Other "key" titles for March included Gears of War: Judgment and God of War: Ascension, which suffered during the month, according to Cowen & Company analyst Doug Creutz.

Tomb Raider was also called out as a high-profile March title. And though the reboot enjoyed the strongest opening week in franchise history, publisher Square Enix said this title failed to live up to sales expectations.

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Discussion

310 comments
DarkSaber2k
DarkSaber2k

And since last month saw a POSITIVE sales trend, we can dismiss this guy as yet another analyst that is full of shit.

RhayStrike
RhayStrike

Kenita siempre haciendo de las suyas..

franizarduy
franizarduy

nobody handles writing and dialogue like rockstar games, thats a fact! just take a look at the dialogues in gta vice city, brilliant piece of work , these guys know what they are doing.

Ovirew
Ovirew

Isn't it kind of sad that this group is only predicting good sales for the game industry whenever a violent game comes out?

I wonder what that says about society in America, if games like GTA and COD are really the most popular, and apparently the only ones 'worthy' of keeping the US game industry afloat lol.

JRLennis
JRLennis

Newsflash: The economy is stagnant and only one crisis away from dipping back into recession.  Unemployment dropped, but only because 500,000 people stopped looking for work and are not counted in the figure.  Americans are rightly worried about their pocketbooks.  Bhatia is being generous with his assertion that the US market will recover with the release of GTA5.  I don't see that as a sure thing.  Certainly it will outsell everything else, but where do you put the bar?  I think Rockstar may panic at the initial sales figures, no matter how good the game is.

tightwad34
tightwad34

Should have known a completely irrelevant article based on someone's opinion comes from good ole' Eddie.

grasshopper6
grasshopper6

they better release it for next gen consoles too if they want to make good money 

ejay_kain
ejay_kain

only if there is a hot coffee mod :P

bloody-hell
bloody-hell

Analyst says analysts analyze too much and tell falsehood.
Also analyses analyzed by analysts are often wrong.

More analyzed analyst announcements coming soon ...
I think analysts need to just shut the eff up, even though they may have one of the best jobs ever - getting paid for guessing and estimating and selling it as factual information.

steelmouth
steelmouth

the world have way too much faith in GTAV there is going to be way too many broken hearts when it dont live up to the high expectation, more so that dream that it will outsell COD

franizarduy
franizarduy

"Lives will remain negative until gta v arrives."

debryson
debryson

Tomb Raider sold 3.6 million, and Bioshock Infinite sold 750,000 during the month of march. Yet they say Bioshock will be the best selling march game?? 

Seems legit.

Gamer_4_Fun
Gamer_4_Fun

Hail Mighty Rockstar Games *bowns down*.

thermalmotion
thermalmotion

Watch out, the analists are probing us again!

sensei_hEnRY
sensei_hEnRY

GTAV will come and save the day! Kinda surprised that Bioshock: Infinite, God of War Ascension, Gears of War Judgment, and Tomb Raider are not enough to crank up the sales. Those games are AAA titles and except for GoW -which i'm not a fan of- are amazing games.

jagcivtec
jagcivtec

Highly anticipating this one.  I'm one of those who thinks GTASA was so superior to GTA4 in every way ( except graphics ofcourse ).

It felt like a huge downgrade, so just to know this one will be everything GTA4 should have been and wasn't really makes it a must buy.  

The information released has this game described as a larger world than GTASA and more focused in over the top action, not like GTA4 with a tiny repetitive world (compared to GTASA) and serious soap opera story ( introverted Niko Belic and his philosophical views) and simulation gameplay ( Boring long animations stealing cars, tripwiring alarms, etc ).

Compared to the truly funny CJ oneliners and crazy gameplay of GTASA, GTA4 didn't even feel like GTA anymore and this game is said to bring all the GTAness back.

fredyellowone
fredyellowone

GTA is GTA and will sell no matter what.  but do not DARE to say a single word against the game, even if you like it, because then legions of mindless fanboys will rage on.

Well, I'm going to tell what a lot of people do not dare to say.

LA, NY, been there, done that.  GTA series NEED to get outside the USA.  Period.

franizarduy
franizarduy

@Ovirew i have to say iim from argentina and the game is fuckin popular in south america so is not only in the us, its a worldwide fanbase.


punksterdaddy
punksterdaddy

@tightwad34 

So I am not the only person to notice this?

I said something similar in another of Eddie's Rumour Mill Articles.

lol.

tightwad34
tightwad34

@bloody-hell You are right, except for the very last part. But it's not factual information, it says it's based on opinion. Most of these articles are based on opinion, making them completely irrelevant.

Aphyosemion
Aphyosemion

@steelmouth Has GTA ever not lived up to expectations?  It seems to me that they have all been pretty popular and successful.

boarwar
boarwar

@steelmouth as long as they dont water it down to fit on one tiny xbox disc like they did to GTA4. Graphics...sure theyre nice, who cares. I want content and story.....the leap from GTASA to 4 was sooooo disappointing  especially since i was told blu rays hold something like 16 Gb of data. Being that gta was a ps original and ported to xbox months and months after the release of SA, i would sure hope they just cram everything onto a blu ray and try to squeeze the rest onto 5 dvds for xbox users

ddoggbritt16
ddoggbritt16

@jagcivtec Sanandreas is the best in every way i grew up playing that game for countless hours, that game revolutionized any game today by allowing you to change any aspect of your character i still enjoy playing it and prefer it over gta 4

Ovirew
Ovirew

@fredyellowone Well, I disagree.  They should do GTA Albuquerque.  And then you'd have desert to run around in as well as the city, and there would even be illegal immigrants and members of the drug cartel to deal with!  And you should play as a high school chemistry teacher who has cancer and turns to a life of making crystal meth and discovers he likes the excitement of it, so the game actually has a good story.  And forget calling it GTA, just call it Breaking Bad.  Easier for fans to type, BB, see they'll get used to it.  Hell, I might actually play the game if they do all that.  XD

Ovirew
Ovirew

@franizarduy I'm just curious about what makes GTA so popular.  I get that sandbox/open world games are appealing, so maybe that's a large part of it?  I just don't get why so many people are attracted to playing as a criminal.  I liked Red Dead Redemption a lot when I played that, so maybe it has a lot to do with just the sense of freedom and being able to do whatever you want that appeals to people?

stev69
stev69

@punksterdaddy @tightwad34 Articles like this stimulate debate, especially when Eddie cherry picks the choice quotations without printing the full story. Its just a way of using sensationalism to generate interest, its not really a big deal.

tightwad34
tightwad34

@punksterdaddy You are not the only one. There are a few out there, but they are hard to find.

JamesHetfield89
JamesHetfield89

@tightwad34 Do you truly believe his opinion is completely irrelevant and his firm is wasting the surely hundreds of thousands of dollars they pay him in salary to generate it, or do you just not understand at all what finance is? I'm going to go with the later.

Ovirew
Ovirew

@faizanhd @sensei_hEnRY Well opinions aside, I think sensei raises pretty much the same thought that I have.  It's something that none of these other releases are enough to do the trick.

I think this whole insight is kind of laughable though, because I've always been under the impression that consumers are more likely to spend money on big games later in the year, as the Holidays approach.  I guess what they mean is, they are unhappy because they aren't getting Holiday game industry sales year-round.

Ovirew
Ovirew

@AphyosemionI guess the sandbox element itself must be what makes GTA so popular.  Sandbox games are decent, I can agree with that.  RDR really changed things up and gave me a setting and a story I could appreciate.  I had a lot of fun with the 360 game Crackdown too.  I guess GTA will always be the king of sandbox games since GTA 3 was the first really successful one.

Ovirew
Ovirew

@made_u_look I understand that, but I guess I don't understand why that particular 'fantasy' is more popular than the worlds presented in other games.  You can do anything in video games, so why does being a criminal have the most appeal?

I can't go around killing demons in real life either, but I enjoy doing that in video games.  Maybe it's just that people who play GTA tend to enjoy realism and over-the-top stuff more than games with a lot of imagination and fantasy.

Aphyosemion
Aphyosemion

@JRLennis @Ovirew @franizarduy For me it just has more to do with how fun the game is than anything.  Driving around and crashing into things, taking odd jobs, surfing the game's internet, dating, and just generally doing whatever you want is really just plain fun.

JRLennis
JRLennis

@Ovirew @franizarduy I've given the question some thought over the years, and I've concluded GTA's popularity isn't so much about the violence as its sheer outrageousness.  The games are so over-the-top, they're actually pretty hysterical.  Especially when they try to act all gangster.  No sane person would think this a murder simulation.  It's just a virtual form of satire.  I mean, listen to the RADIO!  "We can afford to give you more because we pay our employees less!"  That GTA3 line still leaves me in stitches.

made_u_look
made_u_look

@Ovirew @franizarduy Because it's fantasy, it doesn't represent who you are in real life. People play criminals because they never will or never want to in real life. But in a virtual world doesn't matter there are no consequences to your actions. Don't understand why people can't comprehend this.

franizarduy
franizarduy

Imo it has to do with the production values, perhaps you dont like it but you have to admit it is well developed, to me its all about the world recreated as a whole, where you can play as an alter ego, i find that very appealing. And, of course, you need a great story ( red dead is magnificent, it even has a better story than a lot of hollywood movies) so i guess the core of a good game is in the ability to make you care about the caracters and the story, and all things considered rockstar games are fun to play.

JamesHetfield89
JamesHetfield89

I'm not talking about balancing your check book, chief. You certainly are talking about finance when you dismiss his analysis, he's a friggin CFA. His job is to inform investors and his opinion is factually not completely irrelevant...he's incredibly well paid for it.

tightwad34
tightwad34

@JamesHetfield89 Well, thanks for putting words in my mouth. If I didn't know the last thing about finance I would probably be flipping burgers at some hole in the wall. Nowhere did I say anything about finance.