Analyst: The Bureau: XCOM Declassified will come up short

Cowen & Company's Doug Creutz believes new game from 2K Marin will sell fewer than 250,000 copies in US through end of the year.

A long development for The Bureau: XCOM Declassified won't be rewarded with strong sales, according to Cowen & Company analyst Doug Creutz.

In a note to investors today, Creutz said 2K Marin's game is "unlikely to generate any significant sales." This will be fewer than 250,000 units in the United States through the end of the calendar year, he said.

Creutz's estimation is based on the results of an internal analysis of upcoming titles stemming from the number of preorders for the seven weeks since E3.

The Bureau: XCOM Declassified was originally announced in 2010 as a first-person shooter called XCOM. After numerous delays and years of silence, 2K Games announced in April that the game would be released August 20 under its new name for the Xbox 360, PlayStation 3, and PC as a full-price, third-person shooter.

Written By

Eddie Makuch is a news editor at GameSpot, and would like to see the Whalers return to Hartford.

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Discussion

231 comments
BoydofZINJ
BoydofZINJ

I just started playing it and it seems pretty good. Maybe not a game of the year. The problem most people have, I think, is when they think of XCOM they think of turn based strategy. While UFO defense, Terror for the Deep, and Enemy Unknown are exactly that - there are other XCOM games which are not.

The level designs are no different than Mass Effect - and if you do not like retro looks and feel and not into third person games - then obviously this game is not for you. However, you do have to take care of your units allot more than in other games - since death can be perm - and in a game like Mass Effect - I often hated the AI and let them die half the time.  Since your just needed to kill anything - even on the hardest difficulty - so far - I need more team work to win in this version of XCOM.

It tells the origin of the XCOM organization, but I only scratched the surface.  The one thing I do like - is the feel that your NPCs are needed and you need to make sure they stay alive.  In most third person games - the NPCs are just thrown around and if they die... you just wait until the mission is over to have them recovered... this is XCOM and you can lose your agent that took several missions to upgrade.

AJRiley
AJRiley

I'm kind of torn here: Last year's Enemy Unknown was refreshing and fantastic to play! Why change it? There is no game like it in a market oversaturated with FPS and other shooters... I wish them well; I hope the risk taken pays off. I hope The Bureau truly brings out the magic Enemy Unknown delivered. 

norabbitnofun
norabbitnofun

I'll give the game a fair chance. aiting for it to cime out!

DrowNoble
DrowNoble

I'm not going to buy this XCOM game when it comes out, waiting for the reviews.  My main issue is that it's not turn-based strategic combat, a defining aspecto of XCOM games.  Enemy Unkown was fantastic (imo should of been GOTY).  This game seems like someone trying to capitalize on the renewed interest in the franchise.

Iason Skullsaber
Iason Skullsaber

I watched the video, and think it looks awesome. so, I'm more than satisfied with what I said there Svenny Sven...Tight? LOL

ux107
ux107

This game remind me of Brother in arms series, instead of Germans, add aliens.

Nothing groundbreaking here, and the news it will come up short  is no surprise for people been following it.

Daniel Adams
Daniel Adams

I don't think people know too much about it.It looks fun, and it only recently was available for pre purchase on steam, so they need to wait a little longer before they can really say anything.

Svenny Sven
Svenny Sven

everyone knows this game isn't at all like COD tight? i mean its a generic attempt at a faster paced version of the amazing xcom that came out about a year ago. but watch a video or two before you spout your mouth off

Michael Roza
Michael Roza

XCOM is a pretty damn old series of a tactical turn based shooter. They rebooted it fairly recently (XCOM: enemy unknown), and it's pretty awesome.

Elbin Cenisev
Elbin Cenisev

That's his point. Bad games often sell well because of strong marketing, and good games often sell badly just because they don't get as much press.

Elbin Cenisev
Elbin Cenisev

You don't need to be an analyst to know that this game may not see strong sales. Most people that like XCOM as a franchise are active players and have played more than enough 3rd person shooters, so only a small portion of them might be interested in the game (which is not to say that it lacks creativity or anything, its just that the genre needs to hide for a while). The group of players that are still really into 3rd person shooters are probably not interested in the XCOM brand and will only pick it up if it gets a lot of buzz. It'll all depend on the marketing and the press I would guess (but that can be said about every game).

Darkeus
Darkeus

Well, I hope it is good and out sales what the so called analyst say.  This actually looks halfway decent!

AzureBonds76
AzureBonds76

You know guys games like this could be more than viable if studios and publishers would START BEING HONEST ABOUT PROJECTED SALES FROM THE GET GO.

Not every game is going to be COD and sell 10 million copies. Hollywood has long had a good record with making lower budgeted films that go on to be profitable. Games like XCOM with long development cycles and that are scrapped and reworked are destined to not be successfull, and my take is that the studio and 2K both know this allready. A new take on an old IP at the end of a console's developement cycle that has been scrapped and rebuilt adding further cost is just not a good business formula. 

The sad state of affairs is that these guys aren't dummies and have the same knowledge base that you are I have. Must be a bummer working on something that you might love only to know it is not going to be a winner.

Krafty Pk
Krafty Pk

i could have said it wont sell well, is it really a surprise?

Thomas Harrison
Thomas Harrison

I hope that guy realises he's trying to shoot with the wrong hand.

Ben Davison
Ben Davison

The 3 games you just listed all turned out to be crap

Dell Goodman
Dell Goodman

The combat system looked different from the video I saw. That its kind of putting me off from getting this title. I'll have to see how it goes on its release or if there is an iPad release.

PodXCOM
PodXCOM

Good! I hope it sells nothing!

Where was the Research? The Base Building? The NonLinear maps? The Manufacturing? The Money Control? The HWP/Tanks? The Interceptors?

The cold truth is they never wanted this game to be X-COM. I mean, just look at how much it rips-off Mass Effect, and I don't even know much about Mass Effect.


Did *anyone* ever say: "Gee,  X-COM plays a lot like Mass Effect?" Because never once did I thought an FPS X-COM would ever play like Mass Effect. I have thousands of ideas for a FPS X-COM, and Mass Effect was never one of them. I was following this game from 2010, and it's sad that this is what they came up with.


Oh, and this game is said to have lots of day one DLCs. So enjoy playing an incompleted game.

jawslover
jawslover

No shit..It's got barely any hype..

NeOmeGamer
NeOmeGamer

Bullshit, i have pre-ordered that game and I only pre-order games that are best sellers. Mark my words, it's a sleeping hit. I know, im fuking in gaming longer than these so called analysts. 1-1.5 mln by the end of 2013 and up to 3 mln sold by the end of fiscal year in 2014(March/April) after price cut and new edition annoucements - with dlc included et al.

Boots Buchanan
Boots Buchanan

I also wished they had kept it as a FPS, but although it has been stated it is 3rd person because it will play better, I believe the decision was purely made to make the game more appealing to a larger audience!

Caldrin
Caldrin

Are they trying to let us know in advance that the game will suck balls ?


CMOTKarlos
CMOTKarlos

Hmm. New IP predicted to have weak sales huh? Shocker. 
They should have called it Gears of Creed: Bureau Zombies and watched those pre-orders skyrocket.

smokeandhush
smokeandhush

they need more advertise, positive one for sure.

Jestersmiles
Jestersmiles

Still getting it, gameplay seems good and I loved Enemy Unknown . Plus right now on steam and GOG is 44.49 with bonuses on steam.

So getting this game

Alex Filipowski
Alex Filipowski

Sadly it's not always the best games that sell well. Cases in point: Aliens Colonial Marines, The War Z, Citadels

Jesse Malabanan
Jesse Malabanan

casual shooters will buy it and then realize they cant run and gun selling it back, thats why it wont sell as good as enemy unknown

keyb0red
keyb0red

amazing how far we've progressed from reading tea leaves and goat entrails.

naomha1
naomha1

Just because he said that, I'm going to make sure I buy 750,000 copies so that every analyst for that company can do one thing. Kiss my ass. I love XCom games, I love the genre and I'm sure, based on what the newest XCom game did, that 250k is probably forecasting it a little short. There's probably that many preorders on Steam alone. 

Julian Jaramillo
Julian Jaramillo

I wish they kept it as the FPS it was in the early demos. It looked pretty sweet and scary.

chaosbrigade
chaosbrigade

I agree. I have absolutely no interests in this game. I hate most third person shooter and I have this time period. 

OldKye
OldKye

@norabbitnofun This is based off pre-orders and I think it's right no matter how good or bad the game is it's not going to sell that well.

I'm looking forward to trying it but they have poured some serious funds into advertising and with this little in return it's clear people don't want them diverting from the classic XCOM formula this much.

I hope it's a amazing game and the sales number pick up because of it but I've seen plenty of amazing games fail and this isn't hitting the target audience at all.

SkyAboveThePort
SkyAboveThePort

@DrowNoble It all seems generic, it's true. But 2k Marin made Bioshock, so I'll keep an eye on it and wait for the reviews.

jonny_dutch
jonny_dutch

@PodXCOM Research, Base Management and Non-Linear Maps are all in this. Dunno about tanks, and interceptors would make no sense considering the setting.
This isn't FPS, its TPS, an FPS XCOM would be directed at the Halo market, (run, gun, repeat) this is directed at XCOM core and shooter fans.
I've seen no evidence of day 1 DLC, do you have a link?

Tseng
Tseng

@NeOmeGamer Firstly, it's 'Sleeper' Hit.  Second, how do you know you have been in gaming longer than these analysts?  Do you know them personally?  Third, what are you basing your projections on?  Unlike you they actually have data, trends and past experience predicting these things.  That being said, they are just guessing, and often analysts are off/wrong, but spouting profanity, false bravado and nonsense numbers out there isn't exactly a strong counter argument.

Winzent
Winzent

@Boots Buchanan They made it an fps to appeal to a larger audience, they made it 3rd person to win back the fan base.

SkyAboveThePort
SkyAboveThePort

@Jestersmiles I'm in the EU, I can wait for the reviews to drop in after Aug 20 and still pre-order it on Steam before Aug 23, with all bonuses =) Sometimes it's good to be the last in the queue...

naomha1
naomha1

@chaosbrigade However, there are still probably a million people that do LOVE this genre, and X Com games. 


DrowNoble
DrowNoble

@SkyAboveThePort @DrowNoble Yes, waiting on reviews here too.  I know they redesigned the game at one point, probably to make it more XCOM-ish.  That could be a good or bad thing, we'll see.

PodXCOM
PodXCOM

@Darkeus@PodXCOM 

I already did my research, thanks. But did you do yours? I know more about this game then you do. In fact, just look at the reply I did above.


PodXCOM
PodXCOM

@jonny_dutch@PodXCOM

Oy vey! Do *you* have a link to where they said this game will have Research, Base Management and Non-Linear Maps? Because....

1. Research:  From what I heard, research is going to be either A, where you *buy* alien weapon from crap (Elerium; tech; money; points) you got from the aliens (you know, like Dead Space or any JRPG.), or B, you just pick it up from the battlefield & use it.

2. Base: there is no Base Building or  Base Management. They said it themselves in an interview  at Gameplanet:


Gameplanet: Is base-building and character progression still a part of the game?
 
Bihary: This isn’t a base-management game, it’s a battlefield management game, so we want the player to spend most of their mindshare and imagination on how they and their agents are going to engage on the battlefield. [....] The offering the base presents is much more narrative structure, and what you get from the base is more passive, rather than you spending a lot of time figuring out where you’re going to invest credits or how you’re going to build out this space. That’s not the purpose of the base in out game. It gives you cool shit, but you don’t have to do a lot to get it from the base.

3. Non-Linear Maps: did you see the 20 or so videos?  because they are very very Linear. 

'This isn't FPS, its TPS, ....'


Whatever. This *was* a FPS, and it's still a shooter. I just didn't waste time on it.

'I've seen no evidence of day 1 DLC, do you have a link?'

Can you post links on gamespot? I'll link it in the next post just in case. But you can find it on gamespot,just look for 'The Bureau: XCOM Declassified DLC plans revealed', or just go to google and put 'Bureau: XCOM Declassified dlc'

Tseng
Tseng

@NeOmeGamer @Tseng If you say so, but at least I can post an intelligent, thought provoking response, as opposed to the vitriol you seem to love spewing.  Try and take something away from this discussion; don't post random nonsense on the internet.  Chances are someone is going to point out that you aren't as smart as you think you are.