Analyst sizes up Wii, PS3

Lazard Capital Market's Colin Sebastian looks back at previous system releases to frame this week's big debuts; expects no more than 200,000 PS3s in US for launch.

They say those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it. But game-industry analysts often look to learn from history in the hopes it repeats itself.

In a report released today on this weekend's PlayStation 3 and Wii launches, Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian brushes up on his hardware history to give investors some insight on what to expect from the upcoming festivities. Sebastian notes that both systems will be hard to find for those without preorders and then gives an idea of exactly how hard he thinks they'll be to find.

"We expect Sony to deliver 150 to 200k units to stores in the United States for the launch," Sebastian said, adding, "We estimate sales of approximately 750k PS3s domestically by year-end. We expect a more robust launch from Nintendo, with at least 1.2 million units sold in the U.S. and up to 4 million units shipped worldwide by year-end."

Sony has stated that it intends to have 400,000 PS3s ready for the North American launch.

To put those figures in context, Sebastian ran down some previous console launches. According to Sebastian, the PlayStation 2's October 2000 launch boasted 500,000 systems for North America, with about 1.1 million sold in the US by the end of the year. The Xbox sold 1.4 million systems between its November 2001 launch and the end of the year, while Microsoft managed to sell 600,000 Xbox 360 systems from its launch last November through the holiday season.

As for which games consumers will pick up with their new systems, Sebastian said sports and racing games have historically dominated launch sales. He said sports games accounted for 45 percent of PS2 launch-game sales, and that launch editions of Electronic Arts' Madden NFL series were among the top five launch sellers for the PS2, the Xbox, and the Xbox 360. He also noted that launch windows give new properties a chance to establish themselves, due in part to a "disproportionate number of new consoles purchased in the launch window by 'hard core' gamers and technology first movers."

But for all the clamor surrounding the new systems, Sebastian doesn't expect them to be make-or-break affairs for the game publishers. In all, he expects the new systems to contribute between $350 million and $400 million in software sales to the industry's fourth quarter, or less than 15 percent of the expected total.

"The significance of the launches for the software publishers is largely symbolic," Sebastian said, "as the new consoles will not likely be meaningful drivers of software sales until later next year when we expect the installed bases of the PS3 and Wii to reach more critical mass."

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Discussion

190 comments
pencilpusher69
pencilpusher69

Myugenjin "pencilpusher You have no idea wut ur talkin about! I've invested in Sony on again off again since 2001 & have been mailed quarterly report books! For the last 4-5 years only SCE (PS2), Sony Pictures, & Sony Life have continued to turn a net profit year over year keeping the company's Mkt. Cap at 39-40 billion dollars at roughly 1 million shares trading at $40 each." SCE can make money, but the PS2, and PS1 never generated enough to cover the losses of to SCE. SCE's vaio laptops, and other products are what covered the losses of the Playstation brand. If you really have invested and recieved quarterly reports, then surely you understand that SCE is NOT just Playstation. Looks to me like you're just a fan who grabbed some market numbers, and has no idea what he's talking about. And I was going to go back and quote the moron who said that I was wrong about Sony's income, what with the news story today that validates the 60 billion income that I mentioned...but it seems the moron went and edited his post so that he no longer makes the ludicrous claim that it was impossible for Sony to make that, and that all the oil companies in the world couldn't make that much money. I love it when people can't just admit their wrong. The PS1 never overcame it's losses, and the PS2 never did either. Just how it is. http://www.gamespot.com/news/6161887.html

ranman1990
ranman1990

id like to say one thing ps3 is alot of money y go spending so much on sumthin that will be useless in 2 years . the wii is a good price and its fun so i wont be wasting money . im goin to get the wii for one reason i like it and it to me is a way more enjoyable system then the ps3 plus id like to add in 2 or 3 years the ppl that buy the ps3 will have no money left from buying it to purchase anext-gen system then while the ppl that bought the wii will be very happy knowing they can get a next-gen system

st1sk8er18
st1sk8er18

haha,im getting the feeling no one likes him...idk what it is...

jerm1403
jerm1403

stop posting tremblay!!!!!!!! ps3 fanboy

Tremblay343
Tremblay343

and its starts again. can none of you read. I don't hate nintendo, i actually prefer the Wii to the PS3, but im just sick of you bashing it for having the same functions as the Wii. Its just annoying.

st1sk8er18
st1sk8er18

wow,its like Tremblay343 works for sony or something. but hey,THE WII ROCKS!! PS3 SUCKS!!! YAY NINTENDO!!!! haha,hows that tremblay? now im not gonna go on and on about which one is better and why because there really is no point. basically i can sum it up right here: tremblay's an idiot,and the wii has my vote. thank you.

Rect_Pola
Rect_Pola

Too true, jmegasite. However like the DS, I'm afraid of 3rd party developers not balancing the controls, resulting in a troubled early phase of potentially good games done badly.

jmegasite
jmegasite

I can't really say who will win right now. Since I only played the 360 and PS3, and not the Wii. Though I hope the Wii will do well, even though the graphics aren't as good as the Ps3 or 360. But they have proved before that graphics aren't the only thing that is important. (DS vs PSP)

theKSMM
theKSMM

I've been having a great time building up my collection with great XBOX and PS2 titles that are now in the bargain bins for $20 or less. I need more expensive games to come out so I can finally play Call of Duty 3 next year when I can buy it used on the cheap.

Tremblay343
Tremblay343

Well if you people don't care about the Wii channels or extra funtions, then how come you hate the PS3's functions. It just doesn't make any sense. And i don't hate nintendo, just their fanboys. And theres no way i can be called a sony fanboy, i was just pointing out the stupidity of half the people on this forum.

zerox0409
zerox0409

and on that note, i take my leave.

zerox0409
zerox0409

I'm just surprised so many people are all hung up on the Wii's "Channels" does it really matter to you if the Wii has some actually useful functions?, i don't really care. the weather and picture channels won't take away from the gaming experience you disgusting little trolls... and Tremblay?, you are the single most vulgar Sony fanboy i've ever met.

Tremblay343
Tremblay343

[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]

Wickdisco
Wickdisco

Xbox360 / PS3 is targeting middle class and above ADULTS with a decent income who want the entire home entertainment experience (not just games, although that is the primary function). The Wii is catered more to the casual gamers and kids and the less tech-savy. It's two totally different markets that Nintendo and Microsoft/Sony are trying to sell to. All the systems are fun in their own respects. I'm not sure why some people don't understand that. or knock either side for who they're trying to market to. I have for one love the fact that the 360/PS3 offer HD movie support and other entertainment features (streaming MP3s, DVD/HD-DVD/Blu-Ray playback, streaming video, internet surfing, movie downloads) etc. I enjoy ALL of these things. I'm 25, college educated, own a home, a 50 inch DLP HD-TV/Surround Sound and a now a 360 because it had all of the cool kind of stuff I wanted in an entertainment device. $399 - $599 is NOT a lot of money for a console when you take into consideration inflation. A Nintendo in 1986 when it launched cost $200!! That equals about $400 in today's money. Nothing (relatively) has really changed in console costs. =)

Tremblay343
Tremblay343

austinite04, what you just said is one of teh typical nintendo fanboy statements. Now, don't worry, i myself have a wii pre-ordered. Along with my playstation 3. And this terrible BD, that is obviously the devil according to you, is essential for the PS3. You want to know why that is, because of the 54gb of space on the disk. Now lets think about that. Now lets think about how much more game you can put on there. Somewhere around six times more than what the wii or 360 can hold. Now think about how huge GTA:SA was. Now times that by six. Ahhh, yes, you see it now don't you. But tremblay343, what about the price! Oh, well i dunno, how about this little trick people do sometimes called "saving money". I go to university, and i have lots of money to pay out, but yet my job as a life guard, and reffing hockey, i can somehow afford this way to expensive machine. I hate it when people b!tch and complain about how "oh who needs blu-ray, its just so expensive. Plus, you don't have to even buy a HD tv. You can get one later when you feel its necessary. Im sure Blu-ray is there more for is massive amount of space than anything, cause im sure sony can figure out that not everyone has a HD tv. So im sure you'll have something nice and witty to say back to me. Just dont have anymore SPASMS like you had every TWO seconds last TIME.

X360PS3AMD05
X360PS3AMD05

No, I wish Wii would win, but it won't. Xbox360 has the prettier graphics so casuals will eat it up, not that that's a bad thing ;) It's already showing wider support with GTA:IV on day one and possibly MGS4 and FFXIII making it onto the console. PS3 is just too expensive, too late, and doesn't have any games that people are willing to pay $600 to play.

austinite04
austinite04

The Wii Handsdown will win the console wars!! 360 came out with a $200 headache add-on. Which brings it up to be JUST as expensive as PS3. I know the Wii will do better. With more games and no DVD BD support no chance a person will ever be distracted from what they need to do PLAY GAMES!! I don't care if I can't get a Wii on the 19th I am only 25 so plenty of years left to get one. My PS2 is now collecting dust. It has made me want to shoot it so many times with all the GTA: SA disc read errors and SLOW loads. Why should I keep the PS2? I have an Insignia DVD player from Best Buy and it out performs PS2's DVD anyday. Nintendo has kept true to it's roots and that's more important than any flashy new disc (BD) yeah I might, STRESS might, get a BD player when I can shell out $2,000 for a HDTV and have a yacht club and a playboy mansion. In other words there are more important things than having BD and PS3. Like rent,food, a job! BD will bomb like Beta max in the 70's remember I only heard of it never seen one , I'm only 25. I Was a PS fan but they have lost me. Most of there games at launch will never make me get one. Their too boring just nice LOOKING. Wii Rocks!!

nintendoAndrew
nintendoAndrew

The Wii will win. Why? Its not huge in both size, and price. Have you seen the commercials lately? I have seen commercials for Red Steel, Call of Duty 3, Twilight Princess, Wii Sports, Ant Bully, Cars, and DBZ: BT2. What PS3 games have I seen? besides talking mostly about Call of Duty for 360, they mention that its on PS3 but thats about the only game i have heard talk about for PS3. The gamecube was crap, the wii is not. The ps2 wasn't crap, the ps3 is. xbox was crap, 360 isn't. Nintendo and Microsoft are smart as in they focus on games more then extra features. The Playstation 3 isn't even a gaming system anymore. No cause they just talk about its amazing power and Blu-Ray feature.

that_guy12345
that_guy12345

Okay. PS3 (for now) is mainly for people who care all about the features and not the games. Have you noticed that's ALL they talk about? Blue ray disc this, blue ray disc that. its nice in all but u really need a lot of people who r crazy for high def. PS3 has a lot of nice features, but they're basically all distractions from the fact that they dont have any good games at launch. Having this software simply doesnt seem to make a difference to me and it just drives the price up a good one or two hundred dollars. Im gonna wait for the PS3 to come out with some good games and the priuce to drop a lot The Wii on the otherhand, is a very week system, but they focus on the reason people actually played games 20 years ago. the games. they dont care about how picture perfect it is bcuz i think most people dont really care abouit high def. people who care that much should watch movies on the all powerful blue ray. nintendo is focusing on the games which is the most important part! It is a game system after all, not a high def home entertaintment system. Xbox 360 i dont like the color green much so, no thanx

glitchgeeman
glitchgeeman

Well, I just hope I get my hands on a Wii this launch. I really don't think I can wait much longer.

hotplayer220
hotplayer220

Honestly, the PS3 is an awesome system, but there are far to many problems right now with the system its self and launch unit allocation. The Wii is a really innovative system that is poised to reinvigorate gamers aswell as draw in a new demo graphic. I myslef pre-ordered the Wii because of what it offered as a GAMING SYSTEM. I think the market share is going to change for the better of Nintendo.

Drummersteve
Drummersteve

That sucks for all of the people that had a preoreder. Even though I have a preorder with gamestop for the Wii I still think it sucks for the PS3 fans. P.S. I love how SOME people are already predicting who will win, when they have not even played both systems or at that ONE SYSTEM.

pencilpusher69
pencilpusher69

dell900 "I thought it was 400,000 PS3's ? for the northamerica" That was the "target number". It's no longer the number of systems coming to America on the launch day. No official numbers out yet, but it sounds like the shipment has been halved. Also, the new "target" for systems available by the end of the year is in fact 750,000 units. It's possible they'll hit that number, but I am way beyond skeptical. It took Sony 6 months to make less than 400,000 units (I'm including Japan's 80,000), so if they can magically pull out 1.6 to 1.8 million systems in a 5 week period, I'll stick my head up my own butt. I don't hate on Sony, despite what some of you may think. But I am sick of the execs at Sony to their fans, and investors, carte blanche.

linkdude777
linkdude777

i dont even know if its even possible to even get a wii on launch anymore....we all know it'll sell like crazy anyway even though it'll have more copys than the ps3

Pacrone
Pacrone

Gamestop had to inform Preorderers that the amount of PS3's were cut in half. Since they had alocated some for sale on launch day they were giving people who preordered a PS3 a choice to either get their system on launch day or give it up for a free used and a refund. Not one person at the store I was at was willing to give up their system. No suprises there.

eegeeg
eegeeg

I am so sick of people camping out 1-2 dayS before the ps3 launch and most all they will resale it on E-Bay for a High price so normal gameers caN'T BUY ONE BECAUSE THEY ARE BEING RESOLD ON E-BAY THATs WHY YOU CAN NEVER FIND A PS3 at lauch

dell900
dell900

I thought it was 400,000 PS3's ? for the northamerica

nestea_king
nestea_king

I thought we all already knew that the Wii and PS3 would sell out.....

ragin_massaih
ragin_massaih

Sony can just "meh" Wii IS AWESOME, CANT WAIT!

Omnislush
Omnislush

Business analysts are like psychics--they try to make you believe they know everything, when really they're just making simple generalizations. All he really said is that both systems will sell out and Madden will sell like crazy--something that we all could have guessed. Maybe they should go on the Mr. Obvious show...

mellowguero
mellowguero

If Japan only got 80,000 America's screwed. Lets go Wii ! ! ! !

cjcr_alexandru
cjcr_alexandru

As always analysts just express their opinion. I have an opinion too: 300 000 PS3s at launch :).

grey_98
grey_98

Meh... I wanted a Wii but the only decent games they have are Twilight Princess and maybe Red Steel.

Coolgamer
Coolgamer

It will not matter so much how many PS3 are out at first because It's going to be all about the games. I like what the Xbox 360 is doing, but in the long run the all-in-one PS3 has more staying power then the other system. If blueray takes off and more disk space is need AKA GTA then the PS3 will be a better buy. I like all the systems. I see nintendo in 2nd place just because of price and the ablilty to lower the price lower when needed to put it lower then everyone else when they need too.

Paul_TheGreat
Paul_TheGreat

[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]

zombidude
zombidude

Makes sense. Sony is going to struggle if it can't produce 1million PS3s by the end of the year. Wii for mii.

Eclipse83Lives
Eclipse83Lives

Its such a stupid question. Answer: Both will sell every system they make. This has nothing!!! to do with how the systems do latter. Holidays earning, and all that junk. Its all Bull. Next holiday it wont be. But this year its a simple as, every system that's made will be sold.

hennesit
hennesit

Still tihnk all three will do fine. If gamecube, Xbox, and PS2 are still out there, surely all three will probably be around at the end of this "war." Not much of a war if all three are still there in the end.

playwrite
playwrite

um...its gamespot, not gamestop.

Gamepro2421
Gamepro2421

this is going to be a rediculous launch weekend

Autolycus
Autolycus

ftjx 200.000!!!!!!!!!!! This cannot be...........(stares out the window from his office on the top floor) well do something! don't just stand there! Ohhh CHRIST! you're all fired..... Posted Nov 15, 2006 1:38 am PT ------ unemployeement and court hear i come. have fun paying for me to do nothing since you jsut fired everyone illegally

WESLY_SNYPES
WESLY_SNYPES

He also noted that launch windows give new properties a chance to establish themselves, due in part to a "disproportionate number of new consoles purchased in the launch window by 'hard core' gamers and technology first movers." ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ I think he is talking about people wanting to buy the PS3...

markshell
markshell

At least looks like this analyst did his homework... He's being reasonable, he might actually be right.

KingofTrolls
KingofTrolls

I'm gonna say this one more time Gamstop. . . WE DO NOT CARE WHAT THESE PATHETIC SO CALLED ANALYST THINK OR HAVE TO SAY.

ftjx
ftjx

200.000!!!!!!!!!!! This cannot be...........(stares out the window from his office on the top floor) well do something! don't just stand there! Ohhh CHRIST! you're all fired.....

konel01
konel01

Osxgp, power isn't everything. Look at the difference in power from the PSP and the DS. Sony little handheld is clearily the more powerful system, but which one is the overwhelming success?! This site had very good vid talking about what we aren't doing with our PSP's,... playing with them. The DS is now the undisputed champ in the handheld wars. Nintendo is taking the same strategy with the Wii. Much like the DS, the Wii is clearily weaker than Sony's machine. It's all about the Software not the Hardware. Nintendo still makes the funnest games in the world. 3rd party support is all over the DS, thanks to it's success. Wait till the Wii sell record numbers, like the DS. Don't get me wrong, I'm not a fanboy. I own both sony and nintendo products. I go where the games are. I have a PSP and a DS. My DS goes everywhere with me while I plan to start using my PSP next month when Metal Gear PO hits. I'm picking up my Wii this weekend and will sometime next year pick up a PS3. My choice for what system to get this year had to do with the games. Zelda is must while the PS3 launch line up looks lame imo. Next year though, there are a hell of lot of game I must have for the PS3. The DS beat out the PSP bcuz of it "different" games that gamers and non-gamers alike enjoy. I see the market being PS3 and the 360 batteling it out while the Wii enjoys it success to a completely different market.

pencilpusher69
pencilpusher69

Sydertoon- The main difference between the PS3 and the Neo Geo, is that the Neo Geo didn't have a previously installed user base from two console generations. Sony's blueray will also be a draw for some in the tech crowd, but probably not to people just looking to play videogames.