Analyst sees solid September stats

Wedbush Morgan Securities' Michael Pachter expects September 2006 sales tally to exceed last year's figures by nearly 20 percent.

The steady stream of double-digit year-over-year percentage increases in US software sales will continue through September, according to Wedbush Morgan Securities' Michael Pachter. After June, July, and August all ended with annual percentage increases in the high teens, Pachter expects September figures to be up 19.6 percent over the figures for the same month a year ago.

In a memo released today, the analyst said he expects console software sales in the US to tally $415 million for the month, a figure that roughly matches up with Pacific Crest Securities analyst Evan Wilson's overview, which he issued last week. Wilson predicted an increase of $412 million in sales, or 19 percent over 2005. The industry-tracking NPD Group's numbers for the month are expected to be released later this week.

Like Wilson, Pachter expects September revenue totals to rest on two new releases: THQ's Saint's Row and LucasArts' Lego Star Wars II: The Original Trilogy. He said the fresh-faced pair will share the spotlight with steadfast EA Sports titles NBA Live 07 and the ever-popular Madden NFL 07. According to Pachter, 10 games will move more than the 100,000 units for the month of September, a significant increase over the seven that topped that figure during the same month last year.

According to Pachter's report, $168 million of the predicted $415 million total revenue for the month will come from new platforms (Xbox 360, PSP, Nintendo DS), a sector of the industry that has shown year-over-year growth of $130 million. Sales of previous-generation software, however, are on the decline; Pachter expects sales for the aging consoles to be down 20 percent from September 2005, bringing in $247 million last month.

In Pachter's view, the overall picture for the industry is stable and, in fact, fairly healthy. The new arrival of the PS3 and the Wii will help fuel the industry's growth, with Pachter expecting the pair to bring in $432 million in software sales from their respective launch dates through the end of the year. For the full year, he expects overall game sales in the US to be up 4 percent over 2005. The full-year growth was one point where Pachter and Wilson diverged, with the latter analyst revising his growth expectations from 3.7 percent to 9.6 percent.

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Discussion

46 comments
Strike_Zer0
Strike_Zer0

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

HXCDEW
HXCDEW

[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]

faridmon
faridmon

"According to Pachter's report, $168 million of the predicted $415 million total revenue for the month will come from new platforms (Xbox 360, PSP, Nintendo DS" ahm, when was the PSP helping the total revenue, PSP is good and all, but it doesn't FREAKING sell, Analysys are way over thier head.

JeTGoDLiKe
JeTGoDLiKe

Xbox360 is the best consel off all time when the nooby WII and PS3 comes out they will get crushed by the xbox360 game titles the xbox360 sales the 360's hardware and also Blu-Ray suckz it takes up to much graphics power and 2 much processin speed it ur wanting ps3 then u will b getting it for shti games and good dvd's if ur wanting xbox360 ur geting all the major titles such as Halo3, PGR4, Gears of War, GTA4, Half-Life2 and many more it has been proven that the ps3 have the same RAW graphics power as the xbox360 so if u want the some consel for less and with better games and the best online play go for xbox360 if u want **** games rubbish gameplay and good dvd's go for PS3

JeTGoDLiKe
JeTGoDLiKe

Xbox360 is the fastest selling platform off all time beatin the PSP, DS, PS2 and the Gaming Pc's

oxymoron1331
oxymoron1331

360 has already shipped 10 million units world wide. It's just a matter of time before they are bought. That sounds pretty good to me for the first year.

d-suhiti
d-suhiti

Um, Rhubarb9, what are you talking about?????? The 360 has been selling well for MS. Do you think that the PS2 has like 75% of the market???? Any link???? I laugh at Fanboys :D

Rhubarb9
Rhubarb9

x360 sales are non existant nowadays its like 13% NDS 5% PSP and 2% X360

Humorguy_basic
Humorguy_basic

With a 20% fall in current generation consoles (notice how they are called 'previous generation' - doesn't that make the new consoles 'current' rather than 'next generation' then? That alone show's the biaseness of this report.) and just a small rise in X-Box 360 figures, it is obvious that the vast bulk of this 20% increase is down to handhelds. It is not a general increase across the board which is what this article is trying to show. It's subtle use of the 'previous generation' phrase show's it will say what is needed to give you the buyer confidence to spend their money on new machines believing they will be a huge success and great games will be written for them. After all, if the market is 20% up, there must be some good stuff out there, right? With current PC and console game sales down between 12 and 38% and no guarantee that new consoles will sell as well as previous consoles did, I think all bets are off. After all, we have never had a £500 console, so how do we know it well sell as well as a £150 console? That's the assumption the industry is making, for obvious reasons, I would suggest you be more careful and be very cynical about reports like this.

SicsStringFreak
SicsStringFreak

360 will be prolly the leader when its all said and done, i have a feeling, sony won the last one, and got cocky, see what it has already cost them befor the system has lauched... but with that said i think the ps3 will do good, just not on top, i hope it does good anyway cause i plan on getting one.

HXCDEW
HXCDEW

PS3 will come on top. Mark my words.

Pacemen2
Pacemen2

The Video Gaming Industry is BOOMING. Make the Right Investment!!! the System you Side with in this GEN Will Make A Difference . . .

Poltergeist13
Poltergeist13

I don't care about all this, I just wanna play the original Ridge Racer on my PSP. Riiiiidddddddgggge Raaaacccceeerrr.

GearsOfWar890
GearsOfWar890

Why if my job was to predict stuff about what was going to happen after it happened then heck, who needs college.

hemakm3
hemakm3

You shouldn't predict the past while you're in the future.

Blazer88
Blazer88

October will be even better. And the flow of infomation that analysts use is probably slow and dependant on companies themselves. Don't know for sure though but this month isn't all that old. There are alot of opinions on this site, too bad most of them aren't all that well thought out to be worth listening to.

EPaul
EPaul

So they predict what will happening in september at the start of october

Fjnbk
Fjnbk

Stop picking on analysts. The people who make their job so difficult are gamers, the people they try to predict. People are just completely unpredictable. This is why economics is so hard and inconclusive. The way that you can improve analysts' predictions is to behave like robots.

milsvaard
milsvaard

A month too late it seems, Those analysts sure know their stuff.

caesarbites
caesarbites

I predict the analysts will realize it is now October, but they won't realize it until January.

Bathyj
Bathyj

If analyst have an opinion they should just post like the rest of us. Way to predict the past !

The_MrB
The_MrB

Well, I didn't even think about buying a game last month, but I'm glad to see they're predicting growth.

judgenxcutioner
judgenxcutioner

They also predicted October will come after September and then winter after fall.

sasuke55
sasuke55

NO it won't not this year.

DuviousKilla
DuviousKilla

someone just confirm whether or not the 360 will have a price drop!

daqua_99
daqua_99

Just another persons hypothesis ...

DS_fan_atic
DS_fan_atic

Good news for the industry we all love

TintedChimes
TintedChimes

First adopters always makes new systems seem really good.

faytal-ehtee
faytal-ehtee

How many analysts does it take to screw in a lightbulb? Three: One to prove existence, one to prove uniqueness and one to derive a nonconstructive algorithm to do it.

Oni
Oni

The PS3 would probably do really well this Holiday if they had enough of them to go around ... Europe having to wait till next year is gonna hurt. I can tell Wii is going to be the "must have" item this year, and I'm sure Nintendo will deliver.

AKGermany
AKGermany

Isn't it an analysts job to look into the future of the business and not so much to speculate about last months numbers?

YukoAsho
YukoAsho

Weren't these people predicting gloom and doom this time last year?

MrPuzzlez
MrPuzzlez

...I hate slow news day....-_-'

AA7
AA7

Saints Row owns.

ciryorel
ciryorel

little bear - Analyst...interesting...

thekey
thekey

The 360, the DS, and the Wii are going to dominate the charts this holiday season.

comthitnuong
comthitnuong

i have a feeling it might be higher than 4 percent