Analyst: PS3 could be third

DFC Intelligence says Sony could "easily go from first to worst"; thinks brand strength, market position can't overcome $600 price.

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In the next-gen console race, there are three main competitors: Microsoft, Nintendo, and Sony. While many would love to see someone come out with some sort of "Everybody is a winner, hooray!" scenario, the simple truth is one company is going to be declared the loser. Though the finish line is still far down the road, industry analysts are already predicting who will break the tape and who will bring up the rear.

Sony has clearly been the favorite in recent years thanks to the unparalleled success of its PlayStation and PlayStation 2, but one analyst firm believes that the company may tumble down from the top of the heap. In a memo sent out today, San Diego-based DFC Intelligence explained how Sony could go from first to worst.

Though the memo contains the disclaimer that the prediction is "only one of several possible scenarios," DFC appears to be leaning towards Microsoft and Nintendo coming out on top through the next generation.

The main reason DFC sees a slide for Sony is the $600 price tag on the high-end version of the PlayStation 3. Though Sony has touted the machine as inexpensive relative to the hardware contained within it, DFC doesn't think consumers will see it that way.

"Sony has done very little to justify why the system is worth a premium price for consumers that don't care about raw hardware performance and are not hard-core audio/visual consumers," DFC said. "Unfortunately we believe that represents over 90% of the consumers in the marketplace."

DFC recognizes that software plays a large part in buyers' decisions, and points out that the PS2 was so successful because of its diverse portfolio of games and large third-party support. The broad range of software made the PS2 "a complete entertainment system for the family priced under $300," said DFC.

"With the PlayStation 3 the company is going after the high-end power user. It is almost as if Coca-Cola not only decided to go with a new formula, but also decided to exit the low-brow soft-drink business to go into high-end wines," DFC explains. "Of course, there is a market for high-end products but it is 1) a very different consumer type and 2) not nearly as big as the blue collar mass market. Wal-Mart sells more toys than FAO Schwartz and McDonald's sells more beef than Ruth's Chris Steak House."

There doesn't seem to be much of an easy way to right the ship, either. According to DFC, Sony may have drastically underestimated the competition and will have a lot of trouble cutting the price, particularly in time for the critical 2007 holiday season.

"A $600 price point is okay for launch but it will not fly in holiday 2007. If Sony wants to drive unit volume 2007 needs to be not only the year of price cuts, but the year of drastic price cuts. There is going to be a shakeup in the video game industry and even if Sony executes perfectly there could be a new market leader in two years."

Discussion

1252 comments
Jono789
Jono789

Its ridiculous how people can defend something which is only going to break down on them and make them completely bankrupt and then try and take that FACT out on a console which is no way shape or form even in the same league as it and trys to fob it off as being better . This whole console war is ridiculous how in hell can you say the 360 is better It is just beyond me! Oh and do not even try to go on the fact that people buy the 360 more because its cheaper. Yes its cheaper but look at what you have to buy to make it playable for more than an hour. It seems people are finally starting to realise this and thats why sales are rising.

Sony-tha-champ0
Sony-tha-champ0

Kat2003 R-tard ,how dare you say that PS2 wasnt powerful???its way better than X-box or 360 putted togther !PS2 was making games for8/7 years !Plus the PS and the PSP,Sony is tich. Nearly all the contries have a PS2,Quarter have a PSP,and X-box is like PS2,BUUUTTT,Sony is stronger than microsoft,it got all gaurantee from PS2 and PSP. Bad,you just hate Sony ,thats justs stupid,if i hated 360,i wouldnt said"its s**t or very bad.So plz STHU

Kera666
Kera666

This all very true. I don't really care how it has cutting edge BLU-RAY discs. I don't even know what the heck that is. I just want to be able to play the newer games. The consoles price is high, yeah, but I would be willing to pay $500 for a console assuming the games were cheaper. I can't buy any of the new game consoles because $50 is already killing my wallet. $60-$70 a game is almost my entire paycheck. Looks like this is where my gaming hobby dies. Farewell.

ladellb
ladellb

So many people, including myself (until now) have been making predictions about how well the PS3 will sell because of the price. Let's face it, it's all pretty much speculation. Unless we can all look five years into the future, no-one knows how things will turn out. The games are what sell the console anyway. After playing the MGS, Gran Turismo, and FF series on the PS2, I was already sold on the PS3. There's no way I'm missing MGS4 and the new FF. I'll be getting a PS3 "after" I get a HD flat panel, but not because of the PS3. If there was another gaming company out there that had similar game types as the PS3, but had a cheaper console, I'd get that one to save $$.

neilcollins
neilcollins

I don't have any empathy for Sony at all. But, in the past two generations, Sony Playstation (I and II) were my game plataform of choice. I have and love my Dreamcast and I also bought a X-box and a GameCube. I still play with them (and with the older consoles as well) but I almost always played Playstation more often. It was not because of the hype and popularity of either one (I remember really wanted a Sega Saturn at the time PS1 was lauched, being a SEGA fan as I am, but all my friends had Sony's new console and I wanted to play Final Fantasy sooo bad) neither because it had a "cool" design( wich btw, SONY tops itself buy making the ugliests cosoles EVER,PSP it's an exception, PS3 will not be), no. I bought them because of the great games. That's why I keep them and still play. Xbox had not much to offer to my gaming taste besides selected games (wich is a pity, because it was a powerful console), GameCube had more choices but mainly Nintendo games (wich is a good thing, but rarely enough). The new generation is still showing litlle in terms of games. Microsoft's 360º is very apealling but don't have any big groudbreaking game yet (although Live is a very interesting service and the console design is like... WOW!! 0.0), Wii show more games, good price and playability, but we have to see if it will work and be as interesting as expected. Sony is not showing much, chickened out changing the controler design and anounced a high price. To sum up... PAY ATTENTION TO THE GAMES! The games are what matter (unless you are only interested in wach movies but, if that was the case... What are you doing in GameSpot??? O.o''). If you can resist, don't buy any videogame at lauch. Wait to see the games working, try them first. If you can resist to the temptation of buying it at launch and wait a few months (unless you are in high school because, if you don't get it at launch, you will be a big looser and everyone going to get one before you and they gonna laugh! ^^) until you have a chance to try it and the compannies had a chance to do the recall on their defective consoles you will make a more reliable choice. But, if you can spare 250 or even 600 and you know you will not regret it even if the console flunks... Well... By any means, BUY IT ALREADY! XD I will have to wait beacause I don't live in USA and importing is expensive... And, as myself, not everyone can aford it right away or will have to choose wich console to get first. I know I will get all the three consoles eventually anyways...

benny_da_hudd
benny_da_hudd

Just a reminder to some people who post here. Please check your facts before you start blabbering on about how crap certain consoles are before they even released.

darksaber91
darksaber91

OMFG SONY, WHAT ARE YOU THINKING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

darksaber91
darksaber91

Already bought x360 for fps and racing, got the ds lite for wacky JP games. probably going to get the wii for its inovation. I don't have a big or good enough hd to justify a PS3 purchase(I would need at least a 720p+ 42+ hd in order for me to think about getting a PS3) I just can't see what the PS3 will bring to the table that is new and crazy enough for $600.

hammerofalan
hammerofalan

the PS3 will outperform the 360 so in the end to beat the PS3 you have to buy the 360 + the next console that Microsoft puts out

jofy
jofy

kat2003 you can watch hidef with analog,why dont you check with the bluray and the hddvdplayers,they are already in sale and working great with analog because the protection is not enabled.I cant wait to get a ps3.

pms81350
pms81350

I am a 55 year old die hard gamer and have been since I played a Duke Nukem beta demo on my home built 386 machine in 1990.As far as this gamer is concerned,absolutely all new technology and advancements in the video game industry is to the benefit of the gaming masses.No one system is better than the other and you are not a lesser person for owning and playing a particular system.I have always held that the most important ingredient in any game is fun.So if the bottom line is fun then all of this "my Dad can beat-up your Dad" nonsense is a waste of gaming time.Just like cars,nearly every make and model has their pluses and minuses and their is no "best" car made.The only conclusion that I can draw from this new era in gaming is,lay back,boot-up and squeeze everything you can from it while we can.

Kat2003
Kat2003

1st off PS2 wasn't even close to being as powerful as the DC. 2ndly Sony is banking on us being to stupid to understand what they are doing. If you think your going to walk into EB, GS or any major retailer and get a PS3 for $600 your sadly mistaken. The $600 tag is there so that they can't sell below that price point. As with the 360 you saw bundles ranging from $500 - $1000. just imagine what a PS3 bundle will cost. Also what the purpose of adding a Blue Ray drive in the $400 model when you need a HDMI port to access ANYTHING High Def? Sonys trying to pull one over on us.

skipyou
skipyou

I also would like to say i scanned some of the comments and i think we have winner it is... Wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

skipyou
skipyou

i agree that sony had better ideas but they probably will do better than microsoft, or at least tag behind a short distance. as for nintendo, I don't care if they do good.... I WANT WIIIIIIIII!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ff7cloudking
ff7cloudking

written by: Hikaru97 And maybe it is just me but I do not see the point of bashing any of these systems (sickpain01). The fact of the matter is each of them offer something different that makes them unique. You can't play Halo 3 or Oblivion on the PS3 or Wii. The same is true of PS3 and Wii exclusive titles. That is the benefit to having multiple systems, something true gamers would understand. (select an action below) ______________ Report Abuse To Moderator Posted Jul 7, 2006 11:09 am PT Well said, just like you can't okay any of the good final fantasy games on Wii or 360. Also you can't play Devil May Cry, Tekken, Virtua Fighter, or some others on Wii/360. No Mario, DK, Zelda, or Metroid games on PS or Xbox either

ff7cloudking
ff7cloudking

tjoeb123 I knew that the PS3 would be a rip-off of Microsoft's Xbox Live and Nintendo's Wii-mote since I watched Sony's E3 press conference. Too bad we won't have downloadable games on the PS3, will we? (select an action below) ______________ Report Abuse To Moderator Posted Jul 5, 2006 5:30 pm PT Oh, but PS3 will have downloadable games

ff7cloudking
ff7cloudking

The analysts really don't know anything anyway. Or when it comes to video games at least. I wouldn't listen to what they're saying

Briantb_2008
Briantb_2008

All we can do is wait and see. Even if it is true I'm still going to get a Ps3.

hiraku97
hiraku97

I strongly believe that the PS3 will be the better system and I intend to buy one (If I have the money). I already have an Xbox 360 and I'll get a Wii also. However, I think the analyst are right, $600 is a lot of money for the majority of gamers and this will hurt PS3 sales big time. I think Wii wins the next-gen console war, followed by the 360. And maybe it is just me but I do not see the point of bashing any of these systems (sickpain01). The fact of the matter is each of them offer something different that makes them unique. You can't play Halo 3 or Oblivion on the PS3 or Wii. The same is true of PS3 and Wii exclusive titles. That is the benefit to having multiple systems, something true gamers would understand.

Drizzle
Drizzle

Why not consider some of the reasons why the price is so high and how it could be lowered? Sony might tell us that in order to cut the price they would need to downgrade some of the features. Not an option Sony wants to take. It may fall from the top, yes. It also may stay there, because lots of people might still buy it at launch. These anylists are just that, anylists. You can look at it in evry which way you so desire. The fact is no one can judge how many will be sold and how many will not. Just wait and see how it goes.

MgunHunter
MgunHunter

Well, duh. Of course PS3 COULD be 3rd. So could the Wii or 360. lol.

akuma7703
akuma7703

Please note that I said "output-wise" in the processor comparison. Sony has a history of promising the world and under-delivering (Remember how the PS2 was "so powerful" it had military implications?). The extra cell's will definately be useful in other aspects (connectivity, dualHD etc) but I seriously doubt we'll be seeing full utilization fort he next couple of years, if ever. By then theprice would have dropped to more reasonable levels and I'll defiantely cop one (if I don't succumb and cop a unit beforehand).

akuma7703
akuma7703

Well, actually Mdot has stated that a premium X360 bundeled with the HD-DVD/BlueRay add-on will still cost much less than a premium PS3. If you're a PC gamer (which I also am) you may already have an extrenal Wi-Fi adapter lying around if you don't want to cop M$'s. Still, most people won't have a problem just pluging a cable in. Personally I'm not too big on wi-fi because of the security issues (other people stealing my bandwidth for one). The bluetooth controllers on thePS3 are great... and were one of the reasons I was really considering copping one. Also, Wi-fi and Optical Drives are not an indication of power. Those are accessories. Processor wise and GPU-wise, technical specs show that both systems are actually quite similar (output-wise) and quite close in power. Because the PS3 is using an unorthodox architecture it's a little harder to gauge output so we'd just have to wait until it is released. Look at the screens for Motorstorm- it's not what Sony lead us to believe is it? In actual fact it looks very much on the level of X360 Project Gotham. Don't forget the PS2 release- Sony overhyped the cell-processor in much the same way and the system was actually just marginally more powerful than the DC. The PS3 can do a lot more than the 360-such as interfacing with other devices and ish. But for straight gameplay all indications point to little if any improvement over X360 (as actual screenshots attest)... and that's what a lot of people want- a game system. Personally I intended to cop a PS3 but I'd require a few things to justify the extra 200 beans +taxes: for one, will it allow me to watch my *cough* legally aquired *cough* DiVX movies? Until it's released I can only go by the screenshots and tech specs and what I see is graphically identical and spec-wise, only marginally better (more colorful explosions anyone) than the 360. I have my PC and Xbox to keep me happy till I can do a real 'apples to apples' comparison ofthe two systems strengths and weaknesses.

mrX225
mrX225

the ps3 looks and sounds 10 times better than the other consoles and $999 aus isnt that much for what u get and defenitly getting because i preorded 1 a couple of days ago :)

dubhe
dubhe

I got two words: Gran Turismo

diefreak
diefreak

meh...people fight over cuz they can only afford one thing so they pick and support that system because its a huge investment. *rolls eyes* by the way for those who think nintendo is selling WII for 300 bucks is wrong. Nintendo said it will usually be $199. i will get myself Xbox360, nintendo wii and ps3 because i love video games.

Septwenty5-88
Septwenty5-88

Hhmm lets see the big picture X box360 is about 350-400 dallors, PS3 is 500-600 dallors, Nintendo Wii is about 300-350 dallors or something like that the point is the more you pay for something the better it is Nike shoes cost about 35-40 bucks a pair but they are better shoes than a cheap 15-20 fake brand shoes, so in the end the ps3 will come out on top as the best next Gen console becuase you get what you pay for so for me 600 is reasonable compared to what other next gen console sell for.

sickpain01
sickpain01

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA i knew this website would dog on the PS3!!! think about this microsoft junkies.... in order for the 360 to be HALF as powerfull as the PS3, you would need to buy a WI-FI connector for 100$ which the PS3(60 gig) has ALREADY IN IT!!! you would need to spend another 350$ on three 20 gig hard drives for the 360 just to match the PS3 in SIZE not only that but 360 has to have another EXTENTION to play HD-DVDS which the PS3 ALREADY has IN IT!!! HAHAHAHAHAHAHA 360 BLOWS its the worst system i have ever seen and or heard OF!!!! hahahah and NINTENDO well they are 10 times better than the 360 and 10 times worse than the PS3 thats it for this class...... DISMISSED!!

Landeron
Landeron

$600 ( about 750 canadian) for the ps3 is a decient price for what you are getting. just take a look at what your getting: 1) the cell processor is the Fastest retail processor you can get on the market. the next best is intels dual-core Pentium Processor Extreme Edition which runs for $1300 ( canadian dollars) alone. 2) The Ps3 is running a BRAND NEW RSX GPU which has the power of 2 Geforce 6800 video cards. Plus to even match the physics power of the ps3 you will need to have a physics card as well.The 2 cards are worth a total of $1100 (canadian) and plus anotuher $300 for the physics card. 3) The ps3 also uses 256 rambus xddr memory (512 if you include the video card mem) which prolly runs for about $250-300 All in all, The ps3 runs more power than ANY retail computer and has ALL next-gen tech. X-box 360 is barely better than my computer and will never and i mean NEVER even be close to the ps3 in power. $600 dollars is alot to pay for any single item but as i listed above, to match the power you will be paying $3000-4000 dollars for a PC.. $750 looks alot better now doesnt it ? Anouther thing is the PS3 uses all next-gen tech so your ps3 will be just as good in 6+ years as the day you bought it... As for long term success of the playstation, i believe sony will remain at the top for console gaming, the blue-ray dvd holds more than double the info of the regular dvd and is faster to load, so expect ps3 games to be fully detailed and ALOT more voice scripting. as for X-box takeing over, i doubt it the 360 is running on out of date hardware since its release. microsoft will need to put out a Xbox 720 in 3 more years which will cost you anouther $500 while the ps3 will still be "up to date". If interested read gamespots full review on the PS3 Hardware.

Blaze_Hrimfaxi
Blaze_Hrimfaxi

God, what is up with this website? All you guys do is argue and **** at eachother. Im getting a PS3 no matter what. And im sure the price is gonan go down sooner or later.

Harlequin70
Harlequin70

So let me get this right Sony will release the $600 PS3 (which wont be £300 but £450 in the uk) when all the other companies are just about to drop the price of their consoles. The PS3 has a Blue ray player which will only play movies on Blue Ray discs and only certain companies have signed up to produce movies on. Oh and the current line up for the games ofr the release date bar a few of them is crap. Yeah I won't be getting one when they come out. I'll wait unitl sony realise they cocked up and have to drop the price.

artson1966
artson1966

i see that several of you all state the price for the ps3 is to high but will end up buying anyway. may i suggest you just not buy any new games till launch date and purchase the darn thing. seeing that thier isnt any worth wild titles coming anytime soon anyway save your cash.. the smartest thing sony did was let us know well in advance of its price point so we wont be sticker shocked and could budget for this awsome consule. for all those that say x-box is such a good value how much do you spend for online gaming and accesories that didnt come with it. lets see you ended up spending far more then what you will spend for the new ps3 complete with the same extras. think about before you whine about it.

rabasu69
rabasu69

is $600 way too much? well, for a game console itself... yeah it is... But PS3 is not just a game console... remember that blu-ray disc? if you look around and search for a blu-ray disc player (try yahoo or google) ... you'll be spending a good $1000 bucks just for the player. Technology rolls on whatever happens, its just not going to stop. And sony put a step forward to take that leap... sooner those dvd players will be obselete and when it comes to blu-ray disc player, PS3 is really cheap. I really like to see my hardware to do far more than the other so I dont have to spend more in the future. And for the games, im all for PS3... sony may take the curves but in the end you'll see how far they've gone....

Game__Spy
Game__Spy

Hey ppls that live in America..... I live in Austraila! that suks ass big time cause its like $850 here the price for it should go down in a month or so cause no one will buy it........

Indianasasin
Indianasasin

just wait and see, sega will rise up from the dead and slaughter nitendo, sony and microsoft with a online mmorpg hedgehog game

link_ezequiel
link_ezequiel

I'm going to by one PS3 anyway because that console have the bests games and the best hardware

zaphod_b
zaphod_b

I just love all you guys who say $600 is no big deal, how it's totally worth it, and that those of us not willing to dish out the big bucks simply need better jobs. You don't even realize that you are part of that measly 10%. It's cute, really.

cardkid86
cardkid86

Its awesome cause people make such a Deal about who is gonna win the War but when u look at it we all win cause these companys are willing to go to the extreme. Though $600 is way to much even for my blood i have every almost every system in my Gamer room (dam u Famicom). I think Sony and Microsoft both need to take a good hard look at nintendo and realise it isnt about all the useless crap a system can do. Like hook to ur computer and watch movies though it or have the biggest hard drive or something stupid. They just need FUN games thats all it is FUN when it comes down to it Graphics sound all that dosent mean anything as long as ur haveing fun. james

ElHypno
ElHypno

PS3 looks sweet and I will probably end up buying one if I don't move. However, six hundred dollars is more than I think your average gamer is willing to spend. This is the NEOGEO all over again except not quite as bad because NEOGEO was six hundred dollars in 1990, which was a hell of alot more money back then. Some people may be willing to shell out six bills but not enough to make the sales on softwear add up.

JStanley4
JStanley4

Humm...kinda makes me think of the PSX, and where is that at now?

nappan
nappan

"BTW, top of the line video cards cost at around $600 and people buy those for their games. " Don't bother pointing out the obvious to the fanboys. You can hear the whistling of the facts entering one ear and roaring through the cranial vaccum before exiting the opposite ear.

exoforce
exoforce

Many are forgeting that the PS3 is not the be all and end all for Sony. Sony produces a wide vareity of electronics, so the worst that can happen is that they wont make as much money this year. The PS3 will sell, at $600 it costs about as much as a lowend computer that cant play half the new pc games while the PS3 can play all PS1-3 games. PS3 and Xbox360 target more mature gamers (18-24) and these people have more money than the ones the Wii targets so it costs less and has worse graphics cause the 9 year olds wont even know whats 780p. Each system has its own niche, and last gen Nintendo lost so they are sticking with the little kids with more affordable hardware and claiming not to be next gen. Xbox360 is more of the actual competitor with PS3. Although 200 dollars cheaper, Xbox360 offers less so the games will ultamitely decide the winner. BTW, top of the line video cards cost at around $600 and people buy those for their games.

Thestalker29
Thestalker29

Im really sorry but i dont mather witch console will be the best ... i got a Job ( an underpaid mecanic 8.65 $Can / hour ) and a car , iv got no more time and no more money left ... So the 600 $ is gonna go on the damm gas ( politician sucks !!! the price of the gas ( in canada at least ) is gonna ruin us all .... )

Mr_duong
Mr_duong

i dont care if its third or not that only depends on how many people would buy it or not. im looking for what the ps3 can do. i believe in its graphics capabillities and how it can render at 1080p (which is awesome). i dont think that 600 is a reasonable price but then again it will drop sooner or later. you know technology always advances which means it will be cheaper. i like sony's chances of actually selling it and what it can do. but i guess we'll have to wait and see. i own a 360 myself which to me is mediocre compared to like my cpu or something. the ps3's specs still look awfully powerful well at least for now.

2w-sephiroth
2w-sephiroth

I used my awsome money on that forghotten console called "dreamcast". To be honest I had my best time with that console, It was like... beautifull because games like grandia2, shehnmue and soul calibur will never disapear... but to spend the money on a release product is BS. The only thing I am going to buy at release just like any other Nintendo Home Console is... The Wii. I simply cant wait for a decent Zelda since majora's mask (I did enjoy a lot Winds waker but... cell shading really destroys the original epic legendary feeling) I would get the wii first, its cheap and fun and something new that everyone can get. Zelda will be at release, I am sure that more than 1 of you will not think twice to get the wii just because of that game WOAH! :)

nappan
nappan

So much of this talk is just... uninformed and absurd. From people who are totally unaware of past endevours into high end or breakthrough technologies, to posters who don't take the moment to realize that if 600 for a whole game system + bluray is too expensive, how is the ipod pic and video selling like hotcakes? HELLO?! So... I've decided to stop arguing, and instead post a disturbing Victorian era nursery rhyme about the UK's first female serial killer; Mary Ann Cotton. Lovely lady who killed 20+ people, mostly her children, relatives and spouses via arsenic poisoning. Why am I doing this? Why not. It makes as much sense as 99% of this fanboy nonsense coming from both sides of the debate, and it's kind of funny. "Mary Ann Cotton – She's dead and she's rotten! She lies in her bed With her eyes wide open. Sing, sing! 'Oh, what can I sing? Mary Ann Cotton is tied up with string.' Where, where? 'Up in the air – selling black puddings a penny a pair.' "

XBOXSUCKS847
XBOXSUCKS847

omgg gs wont let me type a censorsed word now my whole comment is gone..amazinggg thats what my comment was. anyway we all waste money on garbage like fastfood, bad games, ipods, computers, and a lot of other stuff. money wont matter becuase sony is ready for the future like the other 2 systems. they will all prosper

XBOXSUCKS847
XBOXSUCKS847

wow gs is so stupid, they didnt let me post my comment because i types s*****.. my whole message is gone yayyy!!!! too bad no one could have read the truth cause im not gonna type it again.price doesnt matter all systems will prosper.