Analyst predicts October NPD sales up 15%

Pacific Crest's Evan Wilson thinks Medal of Honor, Fallout: New Vegas, Fable 3, and Force Unleashed 2 combined to push game sales to their biggest increase of the year.

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Pacific Crest analyst Evan Wilson today released his predictions for the industry-tracking NPD Group's October US retail sales figures, and they included a rare bonus: optimism. After seeing software sales slide in seven of the first nine months of the year, Wilson believes October's numbers will be up a healthy 15 percent year-over-year to $660 million.

Wilson believes Medal of Honor defeated all Opposing Forces on the sales charts.

Wilson said the gains will be made thanks in part to a relatively easy comparison against October 2009, when sales were led by the PlayStation 3-excluisve Uncharted 2: Among Thieves, with 537,000 sold, followed by Wii Fit Plus (441,000 sold) and Take-Two's multiplatform shooter Borderlands (418,000 sold). This October, Wilson believes a number of the best-selling new releases topped Uncharted 2's performance, estimating that Medal of Honor sold 1.25 million copies, with Fallout: New Vegas moving 850,000 games and Fable III another 700,000. Star Wars: The Force Unleashed 2 was pegged at 500,000 copies sold, while the Michael Jordan-fronted NBA 2K11 took advantage of the benching of EA and Sony basketball sims to sell 800,000 copies.

If Wilson's predictions pan out, it would be the most significant software sales growth of the year to date. Monthly software sales have only been up twice so far in 2010: in March, when new releases God of War III, Pokemon HeartGold and SoulSilver, Battlefield: Bad Company 2, and Final Fantasy XIII spurred 10 percent sales growth, and in May, when Red Dead Redemption topped 1.5 million copies sold in its first month and pushed software revenue up 4 percent.

Looking a bit further ahead, Wilson projects software sales for November to be flat year-over-year or up slightly. He expects Call of Duty: Black Ops and Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood to post roughly the same number of combined sales as their predecessors from 2009, with upside potential from stronger second-month sales of this year's October releases, as well as a boost from Kinect titles.

Despite possible gains in October and November, Wilson expects the fourth quarter to finish down overall, suggesting a disappointing December for game sales. The analyst pointed to a decline in sales for Nintendo platforms (both in first-party and third-party titles) as a driving factor for his prediction.

NPD's October sales figures are expected to be released Tuesday afternoon.

Discussion

53 comments
Jebril
Jebril

They were wrong...oh look at that. Lol.

wiidsduelpack
wiidsduelpack

Doubt it. Can't beat Black Friday sales this year/ MGS4, Tekken 6, and Killzone 2 for $10 in a store Halo Reach, Fable III, and Super Mario Galaxy 2 for $35 in some stores 360 and Wii bundles will be better than ps3, but remember this is the U.S where ps3 sells the least so don't panic fanboys

lamprey263
lamprey263

I think it's quite possible there'll be growth but I don't think it's all that significant, after all what games are released in a given month are the real reason whether there's growth or not when comparing sales to the previous year, and October had some good releases that may outsell the previous year's, and to be honest the last quarter of 2009 wasn't nearly as strong as the last quarter of 2008, but given that sales this year were strong in the first 3 months, died in April, picked back up again for May, remained stale until late August and having more releases onward, I think sales will be stronger this October. Guess we'll see.

BARRICADE_28
BARRICADE_28

BOLD prediction!: Nov will outsell Oct. $60k salary please...

JohnisGodd
JohnisGodd

I love. Going to analyst sales figure pages on this website. Because everyone talks about how stupid analysts are. I love it.

ash2197
ash2197

My dream job is to be an analyst.

irishscott99
irishscott99

Isn't "analyst" the politically correct term for idiot?

itsTolkien_time
itsTolkien_time

Is there really any point in predicting figures that will be officially released in only a few days? It's speculation about something that has already happened anyways. You don't have to predict this, just wait for the NPD results a few days later.

nparks
nparks

Borderlands should have sold more. That game kicked.

DS_fan_atic
DS_fan_atic

The sales decline is just a natural part of the boom and bust of the industry, especially as time goes on through a console cycle. Initially big excitement and hype when a console launches, which means big sales initially. However, as time goes on people already have the consoles, and the games they want, there is also a bit of consumer fatigue when buying games for the same system/s. Also the publishers may be working on titles for the next big console release, and therefore spend less money on big AAA titles for current gen consoles, look at the DS vs. 3DS example.

Wiplash4elpres
Wiplash4elpres

HOLY S**T!!!!!!!!! R U SRS?!?!?!?!?!?!?!? THIS WAS TOTALLY UNEXPECTED CONSIDERING ALL THE CRAPPY TITLES THAT CAME OUT!!! (hint of sarcasm)

nightshade869
nightshade869

I tink December sales will be higher than last year. Tons of games for gifts. Not to mention GT5 sales will continue into December and Kinect will probably sell like mad in the holiday rush.

LinusBlue
LinusBlue

Man I wish I had that job. It sounds easier than being a senator.

robram9
robram9

Anyone who is into gaming could've "predicted" this...

theMirrorsTruth
theMirrorsTruth

Most of us should be analysts, because we could have told you this in January.

DeVreez
DeVreez

This is good news but honestly I could have predicted most of this stuff myself.

tehepicpwnzor
tehepicpwnzor

Black Ops + Gran Turismo 5 + Kinect > everything else profit wise combined so far this financial quarter.

Nick_2266
Nick_2266

a wii is so cheap at black friday this year $199 with a 50 dollar gift card at several stores.....so now it's $150, plus it comes with a motion plus and wii sports resort on top of regular wii sports. $150 - $20 (motion plus) - $50 (sports resort) equals $80 for wii console and a controller and numchuck...that's cheap

wiidsduelpack
wiidsduelpack

A Wii is as expensive as a ps3 with its accessories. That's why people are now buying 360's and ps3's because they are affordable now

bakasmiley
bakasmiley

didn't wilson got lost a the sea when tom hanks was rescued by a cruise ship?

tko6070
tko6070

wilson is really just a volleyball with a handprint, its all a lie.

Waldkrieger
Waldkrieger

I will use my psychic powers to reveal that the Analyst doesn't know what a real job is, and that no one cares about reading this crap on Gamespot.

BetardxFoosier
BetardxFoosier

Kinda funny that he chose those games, since they all received sub-par ratings in their reviews.

MJ12-Conspiracy
MJ12-Conspiracy

This is rich, an analyst speculating on another analyst firm, I guess I shouldn't be surprised by this seeing as they've changed how they report their findings.

Javier
Javier

Pacific Crest analyst Evan Wilson a.k.a Captain Obvious.

MooncalfReviews
MooncalfReviews

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

MooncalfReviews
MooncalfReviews

No you don't say Analysts?! How did you ever come to this amazing and unexpected conclusion? Could it be that we've all been waiting for the big October releases for 6 bloody months? I want your damn job! You sit around making obvious predictions all year, half of which actually turn out to be total failures, and somebody gives you money for it! I bet you don't even play games. I hate you all with a burning passion.

NColdhardt
NColdhardt

I predict it to be 21.376% We'll see who's right. Bring it.

NoremaC-_-
NoremaC-_-

1) no one cares 2) find somthing better to analyse 3) good games sell good especially sequals to a good game 4) same goes for new things 5) common sence 6) im so negative : (

Leozt
Leozt

I love Medal of Honor! Good game... More realistic and love this sounds!!

anthonycg
anthonycg

This Analyst guy is pretty popular here at gamespot,

Krelian-co
Krelian-co

wow this guy is a genius, how can he guess that a month with titles like new vegas and fable 3 would have an increase in sells?!!!!

fLaMbOaStiN
fLaMbOaStiN

October was a good month.. I myself purchased Fallout New Vegas and rented both Force Unleashed/Vanquish.

Pete5506
Pete5506

Not that hard to predict due to the fact that big name titles came out that month

Zerosumgame
Zerosumgame

If analyst predicts, then they will never be analyst.

sonicmask
sonicmask

ps .. GOD DAM UNCHARTED WAS GOOD!!!... Nothing even coming close!

sonicmask
sonicmask

medal of honor is very good... Thank god its not call of duty.... it requries skil!!!!

mariokart64fan
mariokart64fan

ok so what if wii slipped a few months , dont mean it cant come back again analyst are so full of it some times nintendos holiday bundles and line up will be h ard not to buy lol

OmegaGear
OmegaGear

@Waldkrieger You're missing the point. These NPD releases are for investors, not consumers. On that note though, I really wonder why GS posts these.

Riverwolf007
Riverwolf007

i would not worry about npd not releasing info on sales since last month the companies spilled their guts as soon as they got the data.

kennythomas26
kennythomas26

@HaloPimp978 yeah but that is a whole new quarter with it being January and for most companies that is the start of Q1, and what I stated in my last comment from the end Q3 to the beginning of Q4 it is time for the blockbuster's of the fall and winter which is Christmas time and all the popular franchises drop the biggest Titles of the year and yes I do agree with you that from the end January to the end of march it's going to be a big Q1& Q2 and then it'll be slow untell the 3Q then it's time for the Blockbuster's again.

Waldkrieger
Waldkrieger

Analysts are idiots who set a in a room and get paid to "predict". I really don't care if sales go up or down, I still buy or not buy all the same.

Setho10
Setho10

@OJdaLIONKing - These aren't predictions by Pachter. You might want to read the article before commenting.

HaloPimp978
HaloPimp978

@kennythomas26 I wouldn't say December, I would say into March cause some bigger games come out in January next year like LBP 2, Dead Space 2 & Mass Effect 2 on PS3.

OJ_the_LION
OJ_the_LION

I hope he's right, but Pachter very rarely is. Of these analysts I only ever trust Divinich, but he isn't strictly a stock market-type analyst anyway. EEDAR is kinda tricky like that, but it was basically founded by developers, so they actually know the industry better than wall street types like Pachter.

daabulls23
daabulls23

@liam-G Yep. And if you're wrong, it's because of "unforeseen circumstances" and you keep you're job.