Analyst predicts Big 3's E3 gameplan

Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter explains what Sony, Nintendo, and Microsoft need to get out of next month's trade show, speculates about new Twisted Metal, Starfox possibilities.

by

Earlier this week, Electronic Entertainment Design and Research analyst Jesse Divnich laid out his expectations for the 2009 Electronic Entertainment Expo, set to take place at the Los Angeles Convention Center June 1-4. Today it's Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter's turn. Pachter laid out a game plan for each of the big three, starting with Microsoft.

Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter.

"Microsoft has to focus on exclusives," Pachter said. "They have Mass Effect 2, Splinter Cell Conviction, and I'm sure some undisclosed stuff up their sleeves. At the end of the day, they have to just keep plugging away and minding their business, growing the installed base and broadening the offering on Xbox Live."

He added that the deal to allow Netflix subscribers to stream movies directly to their Xbox 360s "worked exceedingly well." As a result, that might lead Microsoft to set the stage for customers to consider its console as a multimedia device as much as a simple game player.

As for Sony, Pachter addressed the rumors of a redesigned digital-distribution-focused PSP without a slot for the system's UMD discs, saying it would make a lot of sense.

"The PSP has been at a disadvantage because its disc drive was not only a power hog, but the UMD caused the device to be somewhat bulky," Pachter said. "Without a UMD or disc drive, they can make the device thinner, and the battery should last longer. They also should be able to apply some kind of digital rights management to limit piracy. They also are likely to spend some time showing off PSN, which appears to be working extremely well."

Pachter added that success stories from Sony's ancillary businesses (like movie downloads) are likely to be highlighted and guessed that gamers might be treated to a new version of Twisted Metal. However, one thing Pachter doesn't expect to see at the show is a price cut on the PlayStation 3. While he believes one is coming, Pachter said Sony is more likely to announce it later this year at the Tokyo Game Show.

Wrapping up with an assessment of Nintendo, Pachter said the Wii and DS maker needs to--and likely will--make an appeal to the core gaming audience.

"Last year, they focused on Wii Music, and this year, they have to focus on the hardcore," Pachter said. "It's been three years since the last Zelda game, and two years since Mario, so they have a lot to work with. Maybe something from the distant past, like Starfox or GoldenEye. Who knows? E3 is clearly the right venue for them to cater to the hardcore, as the entire hardcore fan base is paying attention."

Finally, Pachter came down alongside Divnich with his appraisal of the job done by the Entertainment Software Association in reorganizing the show.

"I think ESA is getting it right this year," Pachter said. "They are incredibly gracious, have really tried to be all-inclusive without allowing the show to be poisoned by 'outsiders.' [ESA president] Mike Gallagher really 'gets it' and has shown a lot of courage to address the issues of the small format he inherited and change back to something splashier in just two years on the job."

Discussion

212 comments
SSBFan12
SSBFan12

They are making so many prediction for E3.

asian_pride69
asian_pride69

Man I just hope Nintendo won't disappoint next year...then again...they could...:?

PSFreak1
PSFreak1

predictions are always correct (not)

gmax
gmax

Predictions. Yay!

Gamer4Iife
Gamer4Iife

I get the feeling Nintendo will do the exact opposite and repeat last year's mistake. :| Hopefully, they'll prove me wrong.

borninvincible
borninvincible

i think some major stuff is going to be dropped this E3.

Strife88
Strife88

Last year for Nintendo was a little weak, hope they do announce a new Star Fox game.

dth_dlr
dth_dlr

i highly doubt Nintendo will capture the interest of hardcore fans. They failed to produce at last years E3 and i would be highly surprised if they don't do the same this year.

shinian
shinian

We will have great fun laughing at those misshot predictions after the end of e3.

hhap52
hhap52

new Starfox looks interesting

Zartan3000
Zartan3000

PSP piracy...hot damn! First I've heard of it!

neoand12
neoand12

With FPS now-a-days do we NEED Goldeneye again? no even more, Do we NEED to play goldeneye on a Wiimote? knowing it won't be in HD idk guys I hope they make something good this year cuz I can't take anymore Wii-don't give a crap games.

WizengamotX
WizengamotX

I am surprised that one can support a life as an E3 "analyst." Regardless, some of the article caught my interest: "... and this year, they have to focus on the hardcore," Pachter said. "It's been three years since the last Zelda game, and two years since Mario, so they have a lot to work with. Maybe something from the distant past, like Starfox or GoldenEye. Who knows?"

Junior_AIN
Junior_AIN

He's right, Nintendo must be ashamed about last year's show. Nintendo should release a new F-Zero! If they don't at least say "F-Zero" in their show I'm gonna be pissed! Star Fox too, also 1080 and Wave Race (which should be out right at the Wii's release). It's also about time for a new Mario platformer for the DS, an improved NSMB including Yoshi and other good stuff, all with Super Mario World-oriented physics. A new Zelda is now mandatory, if they don't announce it I'm gonna be extremely pissed! This Goldeneye thing is daydreaming.

hollow56771
hollow56771

How Long has it been since Conviction was announced!?!?!?

Iamsmee
Iamsmee

@ enragedrenegade He was probably talking about the concept that is Goldeneye, which was a revolutionary FPS that was made for hardcores and sold exclusively on a Nintendo console.

MagicOneUp
MagicOneUp

who's this wacko?! most of his infos are obvious, i'd expect more from someone in the 'know'. how about a glimse of the 'next' gen stuff like direct X-box 1080 or sony gone third party or ps3 will have better games, or the next Wii will be call Pii with mind control.

Glade_Gnarr
Glade_Gnarr

Sure, Pachter says all kinds of crap but a new StarFox would be awesome. But i mean the arwings and tanks goodness not the walking bs.

Razorbak1986
Razorbak1986

Umm - just a correction to JackHoleFace00 - Nintendo did retain the rights to Goldeneye along with Diddy Kong. So yes, it's possible. I'm not neccesarily saying this guy really knows what he's talking about, but yes, a new Goldeneye is possible.

CharlieFubar
CharlieFubar

i hope this guy doesnt make money at his job, as i crap out more intelligent garbage than that nonsence.

nappan
nappan

@JackHoleFace00: Pachter would like to answer you, but the gerbil wheel in his head needs oiling. The squeakig of the metal-on-metal is keeping him up, and interfering with his MAGICAL FORESIGHT. lol... Pachter... what a putz.

JackHoleFace00
JackHoleFace00

"Goldeneye"? You mean the one that was made by Rare? And is now owned by Microsoft? Idiot. Maybe they'll release a new Battle Toads too! But I digress... Does this guy really get paid for his "analysis"? Example: '"Last year, they focused on Wii Music, and this year, they have to focus on the hardcore," Pachter said. "It's been three years since the last Zelda game, and two years since Mario, so they have a lot to work with.' Umm... yeah no s**t. How about telling us something we haven't already known for months?

enragedrenegade
enragedrenegade

Again according to his prediction, there's still no mention of a PS3 price cut. Its about time that Sony realize that their console will suck even more without a price cut since they're facing increased competition from MS and Nintendo and I doubt that people will continue to buy the PS3 after seeing what Nintendo and MS has to offer them in the upcoming months and year.

Cabal23
Cabal23

Increased prices for bandwidth are already a reality. Comcast and many others charge when you go beyond a certain capacity. The writing is on the wall. First they need to find a faster and cheaper way to provide content over the internet if that is going to work.

RetroGamer34233
RetroGamer34233

Digital distribution may sound nice on the surface, but keep in mind experts are saying the World Wide Web is just about filled up, and online gaming shares some of this space/bandwith. Also keep in mind if EVERYONE is streaming/downloading content for a video game, it's going to create quite a bit of lag in a game, no matter how much horsepower the servers have. Some ISPs are even beginning to charge customers extra for using excessive amounts of space. So if gaming moves primarily in that direction, also look for your Internet bill to increase.

nappan
nappan

@Weddum: Apparantly all you need to get the job is a pic of you with the fakest smile (seriously, zoom the pic, the guy looks like he's having a prostate exam) and a gerbil on a wheel in your head instead of a brain. At least... that seems to work for Michael Pachter :)

Weddum
Weddum

I wish I got paid to state the obvious.

nappan
nappan

This just in, Ms. Cleo predicts that Michael Pachter is even less effective than her fake-Jamaican ***! John Edwards was heard saying, "I mean, I just throw out common nonsense to a crowd of people, and then edit it... but this guy, he's some kind of sorceror!". Who to believe... ;)

Cabal23
Cabal23

It has already been stated ad naseum, there will be NO PS3 price drop at E3. Sony is already leaking money like a sieve. Lowering the price of an item they will take a loss on in a time frame where there aren't a whole heap of Sony games(or any Sony product for that matter) on the horizon to recover the loss of profits from cutting prices of systems doesn't make any financial sense. Although you may think more systems = more game sales, it wouldn't be enough to help. Sony does a whole lot more than supply you with a game system. Their product line is thousands of items. The PS3 is just ONE of those items. PS3 is really not a priority when the rest of the company can't seem to get it together. The PS3 is not their their flagship item despite what you may think, The price point on the rest of their products creates way more profits than a gaming machine. So no , no price drop.

Superzone
Superzone

There better be a price drop for the PS3 or I'm gonna be pissed.

psychojosh
psychojosh

F**K MICHAEL PACHTER.The instant I saw his name mentioned I just closed the window, he's the king of stupidity and misinformation.

nappan
nappan

Ahh Pachter, gaming's own Nostradumb***. Either he's so wrong it's hilarious, or he's busy pointing out the painfully obvious. What next? Does he saw a lady in half or just drink a whiskey sour and cry into his ledgers for a while?

Cabal23
Cabal23

@minimario The "outsiders" like Paris Hilton and all the Hollyweird A list ruined E3. That is why they are reeling it back in. It started being about who was there and not what was being shown. It is not a big party but a trade show. Trade shows traditionally have a past of parties after the show. But E3 got waaay out of control. Companies like Blizzard, Sierra, Altus, NCsoft,Activison, and Vivendi don't feel it is as important as the gamers do. Save the money on "booth babes" and invest it in games. We will get great games with or without e3.

-ColinR-
-ColinR-

I want a new PSP from Sony. Hardcore games from Nintendo and maybe even Goldeneye and the Banjo Kazoies for VC. I wonder what Micro$oft will announce?

lightwarrior179
lightwarrior179

It might not be a bad idea for Nintendo to bring up some remakes of the older N64 titles like Starfox,GoldenEye (doubt that since Rare has gone with MS). Looking forward to the E3 though no matter what Pachter says.

will952
will952

I hope they announce a new PSP.

XboxGuyxx
XboxGuyxx

Keep in mind this is the same guy who said for the past two years it would be the year the PS3 outsold the 360, didn't happen. I remember reading alot more from this guy that was wrong that I can't remember off the top of my head. He doesn't know what he's talking about, search his name on gamespot and see how much he gets right.

nappan
nappan

@newb16: Given that, MS will insist on Live, or keep it in limbo. MS can afford that, Nintendo's only income stream is gaming, and right now they need more good games or the business of a few months only, could become a trend.

Aletunda
Aletunda

E3 should be good, gaming is becoming increasingly popular, as there where when tv's were introduced, first there was 1 in the living room, then it increased to each bedroom etc, same with computers, and now with home entertainment, with xbox and ps3 utilizing DVD and Blu-ray. hopefully the lineup for next year wont be as lousy as the 50 june releases heading our way. looking at Fuel and ghostbusters

nappan
nappan

Changed up the pic... now PAchter doesn't look like a John Edwards wannabe.... he looks like he's getting a mugshot and a prostate exam at the same time. As to his accuracy... even a broken clock is right twice a day. Morgan-Wedbush needs to fix this broken clock with a hammer, and let Divnich do the prognosticating... HIS crystal ball seems to have the right "wavelenth" lol. I'm sick of analysts... does it show? ;)

Calverz
Calverz

People who keep saying goldeneye for virtual console are idiots. It makes more sense for it to go to XBLA because they would add online multiplayer. VC would just port it. BORING!

deivis21
deivis21

I want see Halo 3 ODST game play

Mr_Fujiv1
Mr_Fujiv1

i have all the games that are going to be shown at E3 09 on my profile

endocrine
endocrine

I owuld love Pachter's job. Saying things everyone already knows and getting paid for it.

PS2Dude89
PS2Dude89

I would really like to see some exclusives for each system be announced at E3. I really hope that Nintendo plans to focus a lot more on the core gamers now because its been pretty pathetic recently.