Analyst: No clear winner in this console war

DFC Intelligence says Sony and Nintendo will be close, with Microsoft "probably a distant third."

by

Halo 3 has finally arrived, and Microsoft is touting its sales success to anyone who will listen. However, one group of industry watchers doesn't believe it will be enough to help Microsoft "finish the fight" against rivals Sony and Nintendo.

DFC Intelligence has released its latest forecast of the industry. The firm suggested that this round of console wars won't have as clear a winner as in the past, but that the battle might result in Microsoft clearly bringing up the rear.

"Under DFC's best-case scenario for the Xbox 360, the system is in a virtual tie with both the Wii and the PlayStation 3," the analysts wrote. "However, unless the Xbox 360 can kick it into gear in the fourth quarter and through 2008, the system will probably finish in a fairly distant third. A big challenge for the Xbox 360 is building a base outside North America."

As for who will win the console race, DFC said the Wii "could be" the overall winner, but also predicted that the PS3 will hit its stride in 2009, and could finish "a strong second." The firm said that Sony might even bring in more software sales than Nintendo by 2012, even if its installed user base isn't as big.

According to DFC, the lack of a single dominant system in the industry isn't just a matter of Nintendo and Microsoft doing a better job of combating Sony with the Wii and Xbox 360 than they did with the GameCube and Xbox, respectively.

The analysts believe that the gaming arena outside of consoles is also growing, and as a result will keep any of the systems from achieving PlayStation 2-like dominance. According to the firm, PS2 software accounted for 30 percent of the entire gaming industry in 2004. For comparison, DFC is predicting that even the best-performing console between 2010 and 2012 will at most account for 15 percent of the overall industry.

"One of the fastest-growing segments of the interactive entertainment market is actually PC games," DFC's report noted, a fact that points to the platform as an ideal place for developers to try out new genres and business models. "The PC game business is expected to grow over 80 percent over the next five years."

Discussion

598 comments
Humorguy_basic
Humorguy_basic

2007, a suggestion that PC gaming would grow by 80%. Maybe true, but here we are in 2009 and MONEY MAKING PC gaming is 28% down! So maybe more are playing retro PC games, maybe more are playing free flash games, maybe more are playing $10 indie titles, but in terms of income,AAA PC games, the money makers are coming out less and selling then when they do, as they are generally dumbed down console conversions!

jaredrichards3
jaredrichards3

pc gaming is cool but the only thing that sux is how expensive it is

Trathen
Trathen

Yay for PC. I'm glad that PC is growing since thats my favorite "console". I actually like most of the systems its just that PC can do the most and its unreasonable to buy all three consoles.

ChinoJamesKeene
ChinoJamesKeene

PC ftw! but man these analysts are abit optimistic about the PS3, sure the original PS had a steely reception until its big hitters arrived but i doubt poeple are feeling quite the same wow factor for 3D now. Though i have no complaints if they are right on the money.

john2054
john2054

I don't think they've got this right at all. I was a big fan of the PS2, but it seems to be that the 360 has taken pole position. And I seriously can't see that changing any-time in the near future. It's got both the games and and a well tuned hard-ware setup. I know what this report is saying, but I think they've got it wrong.

aramitz
aramitz

The part about Microsofts over-sea sales being terrible is more than likely true. Several industry publications (E.g. MCV) quote that the European Spain/France/Italy take up has been severely less then they wanted. Not to mention the all too well known failure in the far-east. But considering all the money to be made is in the US anyway I really doubt the Microsoft game division CO's'll have sleepless nights over it.

Miss_Wacy
Miss_Wacy

i bet lemmings dont like reading this

Spyder25000
Spyder25000

there talking about the future, the war just started The thing i hate about console wars, the comments people makes "Ps3 sucks" so because of some guy posting this means it sucks People need to get the facts right, here is a fact right here Xbox360 aka Microsoft has asked that Game dev's to down-grade the expericence This is so because HD DVD can only hold 10gb and games are getting much bigger. The games are gonna start taking up space on your 360's harddrive sot hey need 2 save room, by down grading the experience Imagine changing disk for every city in GTA

khaos_65
khaos_65

the ps3 still has triumph cards if they fall behind too much. Those triumph cards would be remaking certain games for example final fantasy 7. Now i do believe that the 360 market is mainly in the US and all over the world the other consoles are doing pretty good. I base that by looking at top games in europe and in asia. Yes the 360 has some amazing titles and amazing online support but if they step up and push sales over seas then it can become a dominate force

jimjam146
jimjam146

Now, just imagine u r Sony right now. You are dead last in console sales. You just released Lair which was crap. You just released Heavenly Sword which was a critical disappointment. Your rival competitor just released Bioshock, one of the best reviewed games of all time and Halo 3, the most successful game of all time. What do you do? You get some putzy business analysts to predict that, despite all these setbacks, you will still win the console war. WELL PLAYED SIR!!!

samtheauburnfan
samtheauburnfan

Sony said they plan for the PS3 to take off in the long run, I could see that happening. But for right now, the Wii and the Xbox 360 are the top contenders. Also, the 2012 prediction...didn't the PS2 come out in 2000? We may very well have a next generation console then but anyways, I'll probably pick up a PS3 when the long run strategy pans out

High_Contrast
High_Contrast

We have analysts that say one thing and other analysts that say another. At least there'll be one analyst who's right. The fact that analysts can't agree means that that no one has a crystal ball to predict the future and trying to is futile.

Johnthefighter
Johnthefighter

It seems strange that they are predicting 2012 when the games aren't even all announced at the moment? I mean I can understand even 2009 predictions but what if there are a few more really good games that are launched? Aren't these predictions a little flawed. I mean if you study business the further out the extrapolation gets the more uncertainty there is. That is just a thought, so for now I will stick with what I got.

mooseman721
mooseman721

[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]

jimjam146
jimjam146

Gizmo_logix - I don't want to get into a thing with you here buy I have to respond. Gaming is a business and a very competitive business at that. If you have a powerful "next gen" system that costs less to program (because it is more PC like as you say) and has a greater installed base you will inevitably be drawn to that system in order to make bigger profits. We have already seen this attention shift with Eleactonic Arts, the largest software developper in the world. If you owned a software company, you would do the same thing. My point remains the same, the most horsepower only wins if its accessible. If the most powerful system was always the best, the NEO GEO would have won the first console war.

JAREDJR
JAREDJR

I'm waiting for another price drop and MGS4 before I buy my PS3. As for Xbox 360, my brother has one with Halo 3, so I don't really see a need to buy one.

Unassigned
Unassigned

PS3 really needs to come out with something to make users what to buy it, aside from any DVR Function and HOME. Maybe some games would help.

NinjaMunkey01
NinjaMunkey01

themc_7 wow this stuff is crazy. Why do we need a winner? everyone likes what everyone likes, play the console of your choice and enjoy. best comment I think have heard for weeks. fanboys should learn from this. no one cares what you think is best. I dont care if you think the 360/ps3 or wii is best. I like my ps3. why should you care? just have fun with what you own, you bought it to please yourself. not all the people on this forum.

cikago
cikago

for storm1110 Modza ti je ovako lakse retardu jebeni. PS3 je jebeno najgluplja masina. -go translate rmf.

storm1110
storm1110

Hey cikago. Good Game. Go learn English properly. Then come back and try make a VALID argument rather than "PS3 IS MOST STUPET MASHINE" sums you up there mate.

cikago
cikago

Check gamespot home page and look how many PS3 games are in 10 most popular games....i understand you drop 700e on ps3 and how much hurts to look stuped xbox 360. Logic reaction is to be angry and unobjective.

cikago
cikago

PS3 is most stuped mashine i ever seen....cost in my country 700e (payment 400e) for what....stuped Lair,MGS4 who has textures like my old PC..BLUERAY aganst HD1 free on torentts!? Its real market, sony start falling on the big door... "buy today ,wait two years ha,ha " And for PS3 funboys who have ps3 logo and dont have anything to do and put minuses on whole posts and guide there self with emotions because they love sony....this is the proof thaT THEY ARE NOT OBJECTIVE!

farhannl
farhannl

I think Playstation 3 wil win the war, Like PS1 and PS2. Sony has prove it with PS1 and PS2 what gaming is, I think Sony has the most chance too the win.

KingOfOldSkool
KingOfOldSkool

I see SO many comments with the same sentiment as towely62's.. and its not that I disagree completely with comments of that nature.. its just that I think people really need to take a step back and examine what they are really saying. Seriously.. most parents dont have $600 laying around for the PS3(which will be $500 any week now).. but they have the $450 range for the 360? Is it really that big of a difference in todays socitey of overindulgence, credit cards, and elitism? Yeah the PS3 doesnt have the games the 360 has at this particular moment.. but unlike many fanboys.. analysts are looking at the "longterm". PS3 prices are dwindling.. the 360's best exlcusives are basically already released while the PS3's are still yet to come.. the 360 doesnt have as strong a base outside of North America.. so and so forth. I'm not saying anything in either direction.. all I'm saying is nothing can be written off as a forgone conclusion. Hell.. the PC is the fastest growing industry, one were you have to spend a whole hell of alot more than even what the PS3 costs to have a viable gaming machine.. not to mention doing so in spite of the last couple waves of bullish console trends.. go figure. Bottomline.. look at the percieved difference between 2007 and forcasting of 2010-2012 to alot of fanboys.. dont you think what is actually going on right now would have been so obvious to them 5 years ago in 2002? Or is it an example of how various factors unnacounted for can change the normso greatly? The biggest example obviously being Nintendo going from a company losing money with the GC being its dead weight.. to being one of Japans most profitable companies thanks to the Wii in a matter of a few years.. things inevitably change people..

MetalZombieII
MetalZombieII

proximo642 "The fact is that the 360 is tapped out already on it's graphical capabilities. This is voiced by some of the biggest developers in the industry. The PS3 on the other hand has most of it's potential untapped as of yet and will continue to improve for the next several years. This is not a fanboy statement but a fact." Um... what? Where do you get your facts, none of these systems are anywhere close to tapped out. Oh, and as far as 1st, 2nd, or 3rd generation games are concerned the 360 has been out performing the PS3 since the first generation. Look at Fight NIght Round 3, 1st generation 360 Vs. Fight NIght Round 3, 1st generation PS3 (it even had additional dev time for the PS3), 360 wins. Want more games? How about every sports game to date or even Call of Duty 3. I could contiue, but I bored of this PS3 fanboy circle jerk. The fact remains that all of the systems have a chance and more than likely they are all here to stay until the end no matter which one sells the most in the end. and for the books I am not a 360 fanboy I play games on all platforms other than the PS3, in fact I own a Sega CDX, Saturn, Dreamcast, N64, PS1, PS2, Wii, 360 and a decent PC and about 300 games, spread across all of these platforms. Funny thing is if Sony can pull their heads out of their a**es, I'll eventually own a PS3, if and/or when they actually have more than 2 games worth buying.

towely62
towely62

i dont know. do to price range of the wii and 360 those r best bets to win, most parents dont have 600 dollars just laying around, thats y i think both wii and 360 might have a close race but do to ps3 price its last and will end up last in the war. YES i know the price went down for the ps3 but no good games lately and bad online play its not goin to make it. wii i dont know to much of the online play or even if it has any, but i will be getting it ,cuz if its cheap price and fun gameplay. 360 has got some good games out already and great online play and i hear devil may cry 4 is comin to 360 soooo..... ya sorry to break it to u devil may cry fans. i will also be buying the 360 because of its new games that r coming out and there current titles too Fable 2 , Mass Effect , Rock Band , Halo3 , Gears Of War , Gears of War2, Bioshock, PGR4 , HaloWars, Assassin's Creed, Call of Duty 4 :modern warfare, Half Life 2 orange box, Elder Scolls 4 : Oblivion , Forza Mortorsport 2, GTA4 , Devil May Cry 4, Lost Odyssey , Virtua Fighter 5 , Tom Clancy's GRAW 1-2, Etc. no really i could go on But im alot more excited about getting a wii becuase im soo close to getting 1. dont think i dont like the ps3 becuase i would get 1 just that the price is to high see this is wat i have to pick i either get both (360 and wii) or a ps3 sorry but some ppl got to admit defeat when they see it. that sounded mean .... sorry but ya -_-

Saranis
Saranis

If anyone is leading the console war its Nintendo and not Microsoft, that doesnt mean they are going to convert all these gamers and developers over to the Wii, no HD means its really going to hurt, same with the 360 core system. The PS3 has the best chance to come in second in my opinion.

klactose
klactose

[QUOTE="gizmo_logix"]Reminds me of the early 80's when people said...carburetor engines are "mechanic friendly" and thus criticizing fuel-injected engines because they are "too complicated." Please... You can't stop progress. What is "hard" today is easier tomorrow.[/QUOTE] That reminds me of the fact that in the past the average joe could fix his own engine problems, these days the manufacturers have engineered in the need to take your car to the dealer. Not all "progress" is in the consumers interest, alot of it is just ways to increase profit.

mpeg3s
mpeg3s

The PC should win over all. Neither the PS3 or 360 will be updated for 8 years. By then the PC would be over 20x the power.

cantoclub
cantoclub

the fruition of success for humans is best translated through big profits and stock boosts and if someone loses too badly they will want to quit, that is why they all want to win. the world is competitive.

themc_7
themc_7

wow this stuff is crazy. Why do we need a winner? everyone likes what everyone likes, play the console of your choice and enjoy.

gizmo_logix
gizmo_logix

jimjam146, I sick and tired of this "developer friendly" argument. You act as though developers don't have brains and can't learn NEW things over time. By the way, "developer friendly" is just another way of saying PC-like. But here's a tip. The world doesn't have to revolve around Microsoft developer tools (MSDN). And Sony has the resources to create a console (Cell/RSX) that take console developer in a whole new direction (multi-core and multi-threaded). Microsoft's PC-like developer is short term for them. But Sony's Cell/RSX is long term. It just take some more effort. Reminds me of the early 80's when people said...carburetor engines are "mechanic friendly" and thus criticizing fuel-injected engines because they are "too complicated." Please... You can't stop progress. What is "hard" today is easier tomorrow.

jimjam146
jimjam146

proximo - u r contradicting yourself. Even if the PS3 is more powerful (debatable) that means nothing. The Xbox lost the first console war despite being far more powerful than the PSone. The 360 is more approachable and more "develloper friendly" due to ease of programming and a greater installed base. Furthermore, u keep talking about all these great titles coming out for the PS3 but so far they have all been critical disapointments. I am a fan of the 360 because it has the better games now and in the near future. I play my 360 on a Sony television because it has a great picture. My problem with Sony in this round of the video games is that they are trying to win with hype and fanboys are helping them out. How can anyone possibly claim that the PS3 will have twenty system sellers when they can't even muster one? STOP TALKING ABOUT ALL THE GREAT GAMES THAT ARE COMING AND RELEASE SOMETHING THAT JUSTIFIES THE PURCHASE OF YOUR MACHINE.

neogrunt123
neogrunt123

i have to comment on this console war here ... i won't say anything about the above post. One of my co-workers bought 360 a couple of days ago. It turned out that 360 broke down next morning. He left it turned on to download some stuffs overnight. ... I've been thinking about buying 360 myself, but after hearing this, i'm gonna wait till next year where strong ps3 games will be released.

Cobra5
Cobra5

Why does every analyst report, report something different? I don't trust these things. I do like to hear that PC games are moving up, though. I yearn for those golden days when Electronics Boutique (when it was still called that, instead of EBGames) had an entire wall of the store devoted to PC games, largest section of them all...

proximo642
proximo642

It's amazing how many fanboys are out there and in denial. Not about how good or bad their system is doing, but about being a fanboy. Halo 3 is great. That alone does not make a game system successful. The XBOX had one truly great game, let's see.... Halo 2. How did the XBOX do. They lost Billions. Both the 360 and the PS3 are great systems but if you read the article, they are talking about the long run. The PS3 will have 20+ system sellers as the PS2 did before it. This means that the PS3 with time, will have games worth buying the console for. This is where Microsoft falls way short and the reason for their prediction. I don't have a Wii and don't really care for it. Not my style, but the fact remains that the Wii may very well win this round in the game console war. They have a low price point, market focus and they are selling like Hot Cakes. Sony has the potential to ramp things up with their 2nd Generation titles, but they need to pick up the pace. OH, by the way. The PS3 does not have any 2nd Generation games out yet. The 360 is on their 3rd Generation. So don't even go there. Wait for the 2nd Generation games to roll out for the PS3 and you will see amazing software at work. The fact is that the 360 is tapped out already on it's graphical capabilities. This is voiced by some of the biggest developers in the industry. The PS3 on the other hand has most of it's potential untapped as of yet and will continue to improve for the next several years. This is not a fanboy statement but a fact. The Wii is also tapped out but they have STRONG software sales and their numbers are wining things for their camp. In the end a true gamer will own all 3 systems. I will stick with the 360 and PS3 for my taste, but the truth is that Nintendo has done a great job and I respect them for a turn around that was never predicted. In the long term I see the PS3 at the top unless the Wii continues to sell as strong as it has.

jimjam146
jimjam146

So Halo 3 is the most successful video game of all time with a great single player campaign and incredible online and these bean counters decide that the 360 will end up in third place? Brilliant. Its about the games you morons, its not rocket science. I have been playing video games for 20 years now and believe me, it has always been about the games. You need a "system seller" and neither Sony or Nintendo have that yet. DID I MISS A FREAKIN MEETING HERE!?!?!

Laxlover816
Laxlover816

First of all, the 360 and PS3 are the only ones that can possibly compete in the next gen market because they have the potential. While I have a PS3 and I like it, I'd admit that Halo 3 was on of the best games I've played. Both systems offer cool games, so there really is no comparison.

cabose38
cabose38

Whocares the friek, the PS3 will win.

darren05r
darren05r

lifeshifter, stop trolling lol

duomtl
duomtl

@ chandler 360, wow so what, give it time, it's been 2 years for the 360 and 1 for the ps3, the wii shouldn't even count for one because it's geared towards another audience, and isn't even next gen

effthat
effthat

The 360 offers a lot of what has already been done with less hardware power than a PS3 and less innovation than the Wii. The exlusives are going to eventually port to PC because thats where M$'s bread and butter is. The PS3 has tried to take big of a step and isn't going to be cost effective until near the end of it's life and by then will be competing with newer consoles with better hardware and a similiar price tag. The PS3 doesn't have the install base to warrant a system selling game to come to the system and won't get any big increase in the install rate without some serious exclusives. The Wii is turning the industry upside-down. It's design nearly ensures exclusivity in any game worth buying. It's price point makes it easily accessible without picking up a dinosaur. It's controls bring in more players than the traditional button based controls. It IS the driving force in the current expansion of the video game market. I agree that the Wii is going to be on top in the end. The 360 will probably have a decent showing, but won't be able to compete at the end of 2010. The PS3 will start to pick up in 2009 with drops in price, but by then it will be too late to really make any real profits and that is going to hurt the funding and development for the PS4. The Wii will catapult Nintendo's development and financial backing. This generation will have the Wii on top after the dust settles and will bring about another golden age of Nintendo (for reference, see SNES). Now for those of you who say "but PS2 was top dog last time and look at the PS3", I will reply with "Sony took too big of a step and didn't design for the current market. Nintendo doesn't have the other aspects of their company to fall back on and has been the biggest innovator in the industry since the days of atari. With a budget and a clear game plan, they won't have a problem."

Lifeshifter
Lifeshifter

What idiots, Ps3 cost the damn company over 1 billion dollars with the launch of it according to gamespot in earlier postings which I cant find anymore but 360 and Wii have solid markets and wayyyy better games than the Ps3 has at all, there is no way that 600 buck console is going anywhere because parents want to buy something affordable for their kids not something that costs an arm and leg upon first buying it plus so far Xbox has the superior online capabilities with the nicest features and online gameplay is taking over the market with all games, people like being competitive and having that kind of expandability is definately nice.

kritztheman
kritztheman

why does gamespot keep posting "analyst" opinions when every other day they change there mind. One week its wii will win,then its ps3, then its theres no clear winner. Come on theres only 3 possiblitys and these analysts can't decide on one so why bother to keep posting them. Im aware they they may be different companys opinions but its not like any is more credable than the other.

juster25t
juster25t

Firstly, I like how everyone is all hell-bent over this 'system war'. Who cares which platform sells more than another, it is not like you guys own stock in these companies. Why don't you guys become more concerned with something that actually matters. Secondly, the organizations that analyze the video game industry does know what they are talking about, especially when they have solid figures to work with. These people, who are highly educated, use statistical analysis, such as Orthogonal Least Squares and Classical linear Regression Models (OLS/CLRM), to predict an outcome with a 95% confidence interval. This methodology used is a much more accurate way to make fiscal predictions than fan-boyism and observations based on personal beliefs and biases.

chandlerr_360
chandlerr_360

Lol, wow, this analysy is a moron. The 360 has sold nearly 12 million, the Wii 11.5 million, and the PS3 nearly 6 million...and he says that the PS3 has a chance! No way, the Wii and the 360 are the only competitors.

chinchilla16
chinchilla16

@ Deleken but the PS3 is doing awful in europe, in the uk around 55% of the PS3's that have been bought were bought during the first 4 DAYS since launch. http://www.gametab.com/news/1056993/ @ topic The main game that people would want from PS3 is MGS but that's not until next year. So its likely that the 360 still has a stronger line-up in this quarter through the holiday season into 2008. and i thought the PC gaming was meant to be declining? i don't see why though i love pc games

Deleken
Deleken

The wii might come out on top, however what they are saying about the 360 is true. Aside from 3 or 4 games/fanchises that the xbox has throughout it's lifetime, there is nothing else to substain the system. Remember that the vidoe game world doesn't revolve around the united states and even though the 360 is outselling the PS3 3 to 1 here, the PS3 is outselling the 360 13 to 1 in the asian market. Plus remember the PS2 didn't hit it's dominance until well into it's 4th year. So sing the praises of the 360 while you can, because it's only a matter of time before the PS3 overtakes the 360 and much like the previous generation (which PS2 outsold the XBOX 4 to 1 I might add) sony has a larger fan base. Sure sony is off to a slow start, but this next year will be a good one as all the franchise games are coming out.

thejok3r
thejok3r

Analysts were predicting the PS3 would have a bit of a hard start, then blitz past the 360. This has yet to happen. The PS3 does not enjoy the same recognition the PS2 had among the common folk. I don't meet people that think "oooo the PS3 is awesome," my point is the PS2 was thought of as the thing to have in the prior console war, this is no longer the case. Setting aside my personal experience, logic can take over. The PS3 has nothing to offer. Nada. Blu-Ray is not the clear winner by any means, there is no solid online community worthy of comparison to Xbox Live; and most importantly there are no killer games for the PS3. Developers are focusing on 360 games, canceling PS3 versions, decimating Sony's exclusivity; and complaining quite a bit about how the PS3 is hard to develop for, and more expensive. Developers are by no means loyal like fanboys. They want to generate revenue. This is capitalism. These analysts can speculate all they want. They have already shown themselves to be ignorant of the attitudes of gamers and the common folk. They have already demonstrated they are wrong. I hope Sony is ready to take it's place somewhat in the same manner Sega went under. They have invested so much money in this PS3, and it is going down in flames. 360 will most likely come in 2nd place worldwide, the Wii will probably take 1st. I think it's ridiculous, but the average person enjoys simple things devoid of depth or meaning. I dig the new control interface, but the Wii has nothing else to offer.