Analyst: Nintendo's $14.5B guidance 'conservative'

Wedbush Morgan Securities' Michael Pachter says game giant will beat expectations and reap $5.2B in third-quarter sales; expects 12M DSes, 7M Wiis sold globally for past quarter.

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In its half-yearly financial report in October, Nintendo gave investors what it thought to be good news, stating revenues of ¥694.80 billion (about $6.5 billion) on profits of ¥132.42 billion (about $1.2 billion), both of which were double over the year before. However, even the steadiest downpour eventually tapers off, and some analysts have become skeptical of the long-term staying power of the gaming-industry stalwart.

Such concern is for naught, according to Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter. The noted game-industry watcher today said Nintendo was tracking to beat its guidance for its fiscal year 2008, which ends March 31. Pachter believes Nintendo's ¥1.55 trillion (about $14.5 billion) full-year revenue projecting skews toward the modest, and believes the console maker will soon revise its guidance upward.

"Nintendo's recent financial performance has been spectacular and we continue to believe its 2008 fiscal year guidance is conservative," said Pachter in a preview of Nintendo's third quarter earnings report, which is expected January 24. "We believe that global DS sales were likely around 12 million units during the quarter, and that global Wii sales were around 7 million, placing the company on track to exceed guidance for the fiscal year."

While Nintendo has not provided predictions for its third-quarter revenues, Pachter believes Nintendo will report sales of ¥565 billion (about $5.2 billion) for the quarter, riding "continued strong demand for its Wii and DS."

Recently called "the belle of the hardware ball" by NPD Group analyst Anita Frasier, Nintendo has achieved stunning global success. According to the latest figures released by NPD, nearly 1.4 million Wiis and 2.5 million DSes were sold during December's five-week reporting period, which ran through January 5. For the year, Nintendo sold nearly 6.3 million Wiis and 8.5 million DSes in the US alone.

Discussion

73 comments
Toddbu
Toddbu

Where R all of the wii's? Still cant get one ,almost ready to buy a 360 instead.

CrushedGroove
CrushedGroove

"Most of those Wii's are collecting dust by now. All those non-gamers (parents) that bought it only plays for like 20 min a week and one software buy of Wii Sports was just enough." I keep hearing naysayer after naysayer spew this line, and I just have one question...can you back this up? Do you have documented proof, or any real evidence to support this statement? Have you gone to all the Wii owners' homes, or called them up and done a census? You say these things to try and convince people that the Wii isn't doing well (which the DOCUMENTED sales contradict). The truth is, so many people blew off the Wii when it was announced and claimed Sony had it in the bag before they had even touched a PS3, and now they have been proven wrong. And instead of just admitting you were wrong, and eating a piece of humble pie, you instead make up stories of millions of Wii's collecting dust because your pride and ego won't let you admit that you were wrong, and Sony is not the almighty god of the gaming universe. I am so tired of hearing fanboys continue to bash a system when it is outselling all the others by a considerable margin. I am not a Nintendo elite, I own other systems, and did not care very much for the Gamecube, and I said the Wii was going to fail, but guess what...I was wrong, and so was everyone else who said it would.

living_wmd_888
living_wmd_888

It's ironic. Nintendo and Sony have completely switched places from a decade ago. Back then, Nintendo's hubris over the incredible success of the SNES over the Genesis set it up for a fall. Hiroshi Yamauchi used to make outrageous press statements all the time (such as Japanese gamers being depressed and antisocial and wanting to stay locked in their rooms with RPGs.) The Game Boy line sold better than anything else Nintendo had. Now, Nintendo looks as ironclad as Sony did back then. Sony has fallen victim to its own pride, nobody thought the Wii had a chance in hell, and everyone thought the PS3 would hold a 60% share the way the PS2 did. But Ken Kutaragi made one BS promise after another (his statements about how people would gladly pay the PS3's sticker price actually echo those of the now-dead 3DO company), the PS3 was undone by its choice of format and being too expensive to develop for, in much the same way that the N64 was criticized. Heck, Sony's best-selling gaming product is even a handheld, just like Nintendo... the difference being, Nintendo ruled the handheld market then, and it rules it now. The PSP was supposed to bang the final nails in Nintendo's coffin, and there are now 3 DS's being sold for every PSP out there, even though the difference in price betwee n the two is negligible. Sony does make the best TVs though, screw Samsung. And Microsoft has hopefully been humbled from its own incredible arrogance over dominance of the desktop OS market, by having Google steal control of the search-engine market out from under them, by being thrashed in the digital music market by Apple, and by failing twice to dominate the home gaming market.

ClaudeLv250
ClaudeLv250

I love Nintendo. Everyone said Wii would fail at launch - "it's not HD! Graphics mean everything! Motion controls are gimmicky! Nobody wants Nintendo games!" But then they went against all odds and trampled all those negative fools. Caught off guard, these same people then tried to explain this phenomenom they claimed would never happen. "The Wii sells because it's cheap." I thought it wasn't going to sell at all? "What happens when people get tired of motion controls and Wii sports?" Uh, they buy new games? "When HD is adoption rate increases, Wii is finished!" Um, sure. People buy their games based completely around their television sets, and not for the games themselves. When it became apparent that Nintendo wasn't going anywhere and that this magical date when Wii would stop selling didn't exist, the deniers went from mild annoyance to flat out moronic in their attempts to further explain and justify the Wii sales. "People may be buying all of those Wii's, but no one is actually playing them!" They cried in false hope, deathly afraid of the little white box, even if that didn't make sense. Nintendo continued to persevere, with record breaking holiday sales as they trumped both competitors in hardware AND sofware sales, with an insane attach rate for December. The naysayers responded with the same idiocy, "People are buying Wii's, but they're collecting dust. No one's playing them becausee I say so, I DON'T CARE IF PEOPLE ARE BUYING MORE GAMES FOR IT THAN 360 OR PS3. LALALALALALALA SOCCER MOMS LALALALALA STUPID CASUAL GAMERS LALALALALALA!!!" Even in the face of this stupidity, Nintendo continues to prevail. And as the naysayers scramble for a new anti-Wii argument, Nintendo does what they have always done, which has always made me love them: deliver good times for all who want them.

Ozzie234
Ozzie234

Most of those Wii's are collecting dust by now. All those non-gamers (parents) that bought it only plays for like 20 min a week and one software buy of Wii Sports was just enough. This sounds like a winner in the end? You bet your ass not.

Chief_Kuuni
Chief_Kuuni

well games will come and systems will hopefully come out faster this year. I still have yet to get one.

GtheMVP
GtheMVP

IF they had more stock, and better games, it's scary to imagine how much more profitbale they would be.

markd751
markd751

You can't beat nintendo!

Jshaw71
Jshaw71

no offense, but i wonder how much they would have made if they coukld keep wiis in stock at stories, i don;t mean to sound bitter but this wii shortage is insane...

BasementGamer
BasementGamer

@Dualmask: Great post. I agree. I hate people who claim they are a "real" gamer because they play 360 or PS3 games. So someone like myself is not a gamer even though I play action adventure, role playing and real / turn based stratgey games religiously on my Wii or DS. Poeple who claim they are "real" gamers are really just dumb gamers.

funky_muzic
funky_muzic

My son's birthday is 1/8 and we tried to get him a DS for his birthday. Due to Christmas being close NONE of the stores had any DS systems around his birthday (except for the one pink one at the GameStop). We finally found one about a week after his birthday. It's crazy that those things are still not sitting on the shelves!

kavadias1981
kavadias1981

@mishary85 - Thats rubbish. Since when has a console stayed on top with very good games? What about Okami? That was amazing but sold badly, but something like Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix had huge sales. What i'm trying to say is that quality games have absolutely nothing to do with the success of a games console. Also, what is a very good game is all a matter of opinion. I think Halo sucks but apparently it's a very good game.

dj_b02us
dj_b02us

my nintendo stock already helped me get a new car (only a honda fit) and a house downpayment! keep it comin baby!!! XD

Get_Shorty
Get_Shorty

Is it too late to buy Nintendo stock?

guidedtruth
guidedtruth

Ever since the n64 i knew that nintendo would domanate. anthing is possible with nintendo

Dualmask
Dualmask

I'm just glad Nintendo's doing well now. They're making huge profits on the Wii and the DS, which all but guarantees they'll be around for generations to come, and like it or not, that's great for the game industry. Nintendo has always survived and thrived on innovation, and they know it's not always about being the most powerful. Haters pop out the "real gamers play 360/PS3" crap when they can't comprehend why their favored system isn't in the lead. I mean, seriously, define a 'real gamer'. Someone can be a hardcore Bejeweled player if they play hard enough to get their score in the millions. It's all about preferences. There are no 'casuals' or 'hardcore' gamers, there are only people who buy more or less, play more or less, but all who play games are gamers. Nintendo succeeded by going on a different path. I wholeheartedly believe that if Nintendo made a system with similar power specs to the PS3 and 360, they would not have done nearly as well as they have with the Wii thus far. So everyone who clamors for Nintendo to make a HD-capable console, just get or continue to enjoy the 360 or PS3, because Nintendo doesn't follow the crowd, they make their own way.

zennioparty
zennioparty

I think with games like No more Heroes, the Wii will continue to Rise. I just hope people conitnue to make games that appeal to all audiences. If its to violent for certain people, then those parents should let their children have it, Plain and simple.

Rect_Pola
Rect_Pola

This is great. I dare say their angle is too enthusiastically skewed to the other end, but if Nintendo can keep up the way they have good stuff without being mighty they'll be fine. This is where Nintendo's penchant for being different comes into play, and allowing developers do whatever they want does ultimately breed the different that becomes phenomenons. On that note, I wish people would stop going on about the shovelware thing. Yes, approving pretty much anything resembling a game concept does open it's doors to lousy games. On the other hand, every system has shovelware, which makes Sony and Microsoft look worse because their limitations don't stop it. I guess they only demand quality disasters. That is ultimately why we have sites like this and the advent of gamefly. It's not that hard to be readily informed of crap when someone makes it. Ultimately, the problem is universal and defenses are already in place. Nintendo decided to allow the many goods that can come from not fighting the inevitable bad and let the market make up it's own mind.

mishary85
mishary85

wii needs more ( very good games ) to stay on the top

02sfraser
02sfraser

its amazing that the DS has still got amazing sales haha. they are both amazing consoles though and i can see Nintendo having a few more years of big sales

hyder90
hyder90

Every body buy no more heroes

xgalacticax
xgalacticax

YEAH Wii is great and Nintendo has something solid for years to come. Even when the Wii sales finally drop, The mighty DS will still continue to prevail..... after all, the suckers have a new model DS ready to go but are just waiting for current Lite sales to drop.

GrimBee
GrimBee

Well, pretty much all you need to know is that the wii and DS absolutely triumph in terms of installed userbase, and its probably going to double by the time next january hits us. Demand for the DS and Wii is still amazing, and not even half of the good software is out for it. The hardware from both the Wii and DS are quite unique, so plenty of things can be released on it - and usually new things always win. For example, will need for speed pro street or fifa 08 sell well this christmas? Heck no, but the new need for speed game and a new fifa game will sell loads. Whilst the wii and ds will probably sell amazingly well at the end of the year, and throughout the year. Its still the same hardware, but its the software that drive consoles - or did all analysts forget this? Nobody bought a 360 over a ps3 for its blu-ray playback.. (lol) they got a 360 because of the games. Out of all the 360's features, i play games on it the most (same with ps3) but with the wii you play games on it and some other things too. All of the consoles are growing, each of them are growing in different directions. The wii is in the direction of simplicity and fun, the 360 is about introducing people to high-def content and online gaming with movies on the side. And the ps3 is all about the giant leap into high-def gaming. As you can see so far, each console is quite different to eachother. No longer do the menu systems allow you to just manage your save-files or change the internal clock - now each console does stuff without any discs in them. The future of the consoles is not determined by the hardware, but by the software. I mean, i know theres only so much brain training one can take.. but with all the FPS games out there, each console will have its stale-mate, no matter what the specs are. I like Halo, but 3 was enough... I like gran turismo, but after the 5th game coming out - it will be years for the next one to come out. Note# One of the ps3's most awaited titles is little big planet... now that game isn't really a high-def polygon powerhouse is it.. Unique and new software drives the industry, not the hardware. If analysts reckon that the wii will become stale, then they need their heads examined. I can think of hundreds of wii games that would be good. The definitive lightsaber duel game... there are loads of concepts to be done on the wii.

santiagochile
santiagochile

"am glad for Nintendo and I do respect there decision to make the Wii different from the competition but that being said, I hope the sales die down on this system soon. I personally own the system and enjoy it from time to time but at the same time I play my Xbox 360 alot more. The Wii is just a big gimmick machine and has no wow factor. Just a bunch of easy to play pickup games for people who arent really into games. Thing is if this kinda crapola keeps selling it will start a bad trend of shovelware and flood the market. Way too many budget games are already comming out for the Wii that are of poor quality. I love the Wii, but I just think it is so overated." Yeah, whatever. you obviously don't like the Wii. Why don't you just sell it and let someont who appreciates it buy it!

MatthewNintendo
MatthewNintendo

Yep I think moving SSBB was a good decision. Even if for some strange reason the sales of wii being to slow over the next two months, they'll shoot straight back up on the release of SSBB.

nintendog66
nintendog66

"or that the Wii's name would hamper its sales." They always "predict" something that's impossible to forsee like a number that needs to be exact, who would have known the Wii would sell 20 million units worlwide in two years? no one not even I did as as a Nintendo fanboy. Maybe if they were right then the would would have sold 40-60 million by now and nintendo would've made such profit that they would be making a Wii Fridge, Wii Tv and Wii cars already... Heck! they might have invented a Wii spaceship that you control with your mind and can cross the galaxy in 5 seconds with 40 people onboard ROFL.

vass86
vass86

i'm an old school nintendo fan (since the nes/snes etc) and i just feel i've seen it all before. metroid, zelda, mario kart on every console

kavadias1981
kavadias1981

I own a Wii and love it to bits. I have consistently had something to play on it so I really don't know what peoples' problem is with it. I started off enjoying Wii Sports and Play. Then I played Warioware, then enjoyed Zelda, then Red Steel, then Tenkaichi 2, then Corruption, then Umbrella Chronicles, then Galaxy, now Zack and Wiki and next month Tenkaichi 3 and No More Heroes. Plus the VC in between. This is all accross one year. So I dont get how the fudge people can post that "there are no real games for the Wii". Are you mental or something?

smeghead83
smeghead83

I find this funny....Sony PS3 BOMBS for its first 2 years and puts the company into the red with billions and under preforms on all predicted financial reports, yet people say that its going to be ok. Yet when Nintendo predict more then they actually get in their financial predictions everyone is saying its over for them...pathetic.

_Cab0ose87_
_Cab0ose87_

@ Jaredrichards3 . Uhh, No, "real" gamers play games which ALL the systems have. it boils down to prefference.

Alaskan_Ninja
Alaskan_Ninja

for all those that are all xbox fan club members i hope ur not part of that 33% group with doomed systems and just so you know pretty much any game for xbox 360 comes out on pc.....you can even hook the controller to your pc......so i would never buy an xbox......just have a nice comp and a wii.....soon a ps3.....but an xbox.....i dont believe in buying things that a a 1/3 failure rate.....thats just dumb......nintendo might have a lot of quiek games but if you have real freinds that come over its tons of fun for only 250 dollars.....go nintendo

mustained13
mustained13

"Just a bunch of easy to play pickup games for people who arent really into games." Isn't that what the Wii is all about? I don't play my Wii every waking moment, but love to play it.

console-deity
console-deity

The Wii needs more good titles and less scat.

santiagochile
santiagochile

[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]

tbs76
tbs76

I am glad for Nintendo and I do respect there decision to make the Wii different from the competition but that being said, I hope the sales die down on this system soon. I personally own the system and enjoy it from time to time but at the same time I play my Xbox 360 alot more. The Wii is just a big gimmick machine and has no wow factor. Just a bunch of easy to play pickup games for people who arent really into games. Thing is if this kinda crapola keeps selling it will start a bad trend of shovelware and flood the market. Way too many budget games are already comming out for the Wii that are of poor quality. I love the Wii, but I just think it is so overated.

el_ken
el_ken

cant wait for mario kart! thats the only reason im buying a wii

bunyipbrown
bunyipbrown

well its good to see everyones packing on my PSone comment. Yes the PSone did win because of the cheaper games, although crappier graphics by far, they did have the 3rd party games going for them. And yes Nintendo did lose out because of their decision to stick with cartridges. Now, this can be applied to this current generation. Nintendo is using the power of money to win, (in the sense that people want to pay less) soo not as great graphics equal less money spent on software, but still gaining alot whenever they make a sale. Much like sony DID with the PSone.

_MEDUSA_
_MEDUSA_

Exactly that Theokguy! thats what true gamers are about! GAMES! he the games are good we get what it takes to play them! i't got a pretty decent pc a x360 and got myself a wii for xmas! now i cant decide where to spend my money on games! kudus to the true gamers and the games we play!

Zerosumgame
Zerosumgame

Analysts earn a living by writing reports that does not need to be written. HA HA HA! Who can predicts tomrorrow's number for Dow Jones index call my cell phone asap. We need to talk.

glitchgeeman
glitchgeeman

Well, never would've expected people to say Nintendo's expectations to be considiered conservative. Oh well, I usually try and avoid listening to analysts because they sometimes make up the biggest loads of BS, like that the PSP was going to dominate the DS or that the Wii's name would hamper its sales.

raghraghragh
raghraghragh

Hmm...with NiGHTS, No More Heroes, Zak and Wiki, SSBB and Mario Kart all out or coming out soon, i may have to pick up a Wii. Not too interested in Super Mario Galaxy or Zelda: TP (already have it on Gamecube), but that's just me.

Wonkyman
Wonkyman

theokguy- You said it. I play games for the games, not the system. If a system has enough games that interest me, then I'll pick it up. I generally own the Nintendo systems just because you can't get your Marios, Metroids, Zeldas, or Smash Bros's anywhere else. But that's not to say the PS3 won't yet win me over. You're an okay guy, theokguy.

theokguy
theokguy

Dont say real gamers go to ps3 and 360. A true gamer loves games for what they are FUN! Which a lot of u kids dont understand because you prefure your so call halo games and stuff . Iam in it because i love games for over 25 years so dont tell me about realy gamers.

power-baron
power-baron

Hey Musashi, just like Nintendo had the future during the PS1 and PS2 era? Geez. People just don't get it. Anything can happen, even THIS gen anything can happen.

Tylendal
Tylendal

over. I'd say five, because they're still selling.

doobs87
doobs87

Screw everything, I want ALL the consoles to be successful this year. Video games FTW!

KingKevo71789
KingKevo71789

over-under on when Sony stops making PSP's, 2 years. what do you think?