Analyst: Guitar Hero yet to peak

Slightly disappointing World Tour sales aside, Signal Hill's Todd Greenwald expects franchise to grow in 2009 with Metallica, Jimi Hendrix extensions.

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Sales of Guitar Hero World Tour have been lower than analysts expected this year, but don't label the franchise a has-been just yet. In a note to investors today, Signal Hill analyst Todd Greenwald said Activision's rhythm game series hasn't even peaked.

Has-been?

Greenwald acknowledged that World Tour sales have been "a bit soft," saying Activision is likely to miss targets for the game. The stand-alone game and guitar bundles in particular are trailing the success of last year's Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock, Greenwald said.

"Despite this 'weakness,' we disagree strongly with those who contend that Guitar Hero is a 'fad' or that the franchise peaked last year with [Legends of Rock]," Greenwald said.

In fact, Greenwald projects that total Guitar Hero sales will be up more than 20 percent in North America this year thanks to franchise extensions like Guitar Hero: Aerosmith and Guitar Hero: On Tour. Looking to next year, Greenwald expects those kinds of extensions to continue to provide significant growth for Activision. DJ Hero, Guitar Hero: Metallica, and the rumored Guitar Hero: Jimi Hendrix were among the spin-offs Greenwald noted as potential 2009 hits for the series.

Discussion

90 comments
MERC25547
MERC25547

still waiting for a Guitar Hero: Metal

ZABUZA16
ZABUZA16

I doubt theyll put the songs that Mustaine wrote. There the best n thrashier...

Ramix777
Ramix777

I think the songs are awsome!!!

Captyc
Captyc

i think gh 3 was a great setlist as there were alot bands i never knew and then like the songs there because they were sooo much fun like cliffs of dover and through the flames and fire but gh wt i didnt get that and i hope they dont bring track packs 20 songs for how much heaps and metallica should be one i can put on my hdd and play on wt sort of like a track pack i gt atleast 60 songs like aerosmith but i actully played frets on fire BION and then rock band that i dont own and played on medium then bought my first gh and it was ghwt and the guitar instantly made me hard and expert ;]

Gamminator
Gamminator

i agree that world tours track list was no where near as good as what it should've been it is still a fun game to play and i like it more then rockband. GH metallica will b insane and i'll b pissed if they mess it up

Chief_Kuuni
Chief_Kuuni

well the games aren't bad, fun seems like people love them

Mush_Mouth
Mush_Mouth

@ iBuSHiDo: Nope, you're definitely not alone on that one.

iBuSHiDo
iBuSHiDo

Am I the only one who thinks that the guitar playing in World Tour is really lacking when compared to Legends of Rock and that the setlist is huge, but no matter who you are or what kind of rock you like, you're bound to like about 10 songs and hate the rest?

misfitgamespa
misfitgamespa

Guitar Hero....should have a poll and let registerd users of thier game help in the song selection process.....(yes I know this is my third stright post) I would personally like to see a Guitar Hero : Queen...Some of Brian May's guitar solos are epic......

misfitgamespa
misfitgamespa

Guitar Hero should release a track pack like R. B.

misfitgamespa
misfitgamespa

I think they need to slow on the full sets....how ever a middle set like Rocks the 80's or something like that would be ok...then come out with big releases every other year......

cyznik23
cyznik23

guitar hero word tour was alright.. need 2 add more songs tho. like megadeth. iron maiden. etc. gh metallica iz gnna b bad ass.

destinyrider22
destinyrider22

i did like 6 or 7 songs on GHWT but i think it could've been better. they say that they take requests when they select like 3 songs and then make a totally crappy set list out of what they want on the game. i mean wheres Stairway to heaven or Ride the lightning. They REALLY need to pick up on some songs or the rest of the games are just gonna have some BS setlists.

deathcell731
deathcell731

(thedansandwich)are u dum!!!!Y would u help them exploit a ledgend like jimi hindex!!!

Media_Mind
Media_Mind

the ceilling is coming ever closer

dELIRIUM9
dELIRIUM9

@happyfatman021 Fact is, you actually did defect to the people who weren't the ones responsible. Yes, Guitar Hero was first, however, Activision bought out the Guitar Hero name, and then the people who originally put all the work into the first two Guitar Heroes (Plus Rock the 80s) went out and made Rock Band. So, as it stands, you're not supporting the people who got the bizz started, you're sticking with a name brand.

doctorwang12
doctorwang12

im only lookin forward 2 gh metallica!!!!!!!!!YEA!!

MSG-Deathscythe
MSG-Deathscythe

not regretting trading rock band for ghwt. the drum kit is much better and the song studio is really great. can't wait for gh:metallica and hendrix.

TheDanSandwich
TheDanSandwich

As much as I hate to say it: If they do make a Guitar Hero Jimi Hendrix, I would have to buy it. That would be too awesome to pass up, even if they did butcher it, I would buy it anyway. That's why I'll buy the Beatles game Harmonix is going to make. And if they ever get Led Zeppelin, I'll buy that too.

happyfatman021
happyfatman021

Regardless of which is better or worse, the fact remains that Guitar Hero brought this genre to the level of popularity it enjoys today. I just can't bring myself to defect so easily to Rock Band.

IIFoxmanII
IIFoxmanII

Guitar Hero is running out of ideas. DJ Hero? Please.

witide
witide

Guitar Hero sales will always be great in Australia, because those bastards at Harmonix refuse to sell Rock Band here.

coruscant
coruscant

I just don't like how much the band games cost, give my just a guitar game any day. Also, they need to stay away from specific band games and back into games with lots of good songs by lots of different artists.

Blockie123
Blockie123

Guys, GHWT and Rockband are equal. They both bring new ideas, and new innovations and the GHWT setlist does not suck. Rockband has a much better setlist, but isn't just a rehash from the last game? GHWT has a great drumkit and song studio but does it really beat out Rockband?

Jhedan
Jhedan

while i agree that GH:WT is good game personally i prefer Rock Band. lols ewmgreendawg you're right man!

jrdnsandwhich
jrdnsandwhich

ive bought GHWT and i think that the gameplay and making ur own songs on there is gd but setlist is terrible...s***t(except few songs(3 or 4))..activison went a lil too far on the decades of songs...so ima get RB2 on ps3 wen it comes out and il proberly sell my GH mic and possibly guitar or drums on ebay....

Hvac0120
Hvac0120

I disagree. If Activision (and MTV) continue to push out yearly (and tri-yearly) releases, then the market will be oversaturated. World Tour was too little, too early. Sure it's got some great stuff and they put a lot of work, but when it comes down to it, it's the same freakin game we've been playing for years. I don't think that RB or GH should be yearly releases. They should both be released every other year and not on the same schedule. It's dumb to have two games so similar release nearly the same time in the same year. Both games would benefit from this plan. I don't think the investors at either MTV/EA or Activision will agree with me, but just wait and see what happens if they continue to push out all of these spin-offs and yearly releases. You'll find sales will continue to decrease and then we stop getting any innovation because the companies think it's not a viable market any more.

Sweendrix
Sweendrix

Guitar Hero World Tour has the worst setlist ever. Sales are a bit "soft" because people who bought it (like me) tell other gamers not to buy it because it is so terrible. It seems that the developers of this game have decided to thow out a terrible set of songs....in hope that gamers will be so incredibly frustrated about paying 100 dollars for this terrible game...that they actually might pony up a few more dollars to download some good songs that might make it not suck so much.

ASG_
ASG_

Rock Band is superior, you just can't deny that.

Dos-Mos
Dos-Mos

Personally, I'm afraid that all of the Spinoffs like DJ Hero are going to kill the franchise. It feels like they're doing too much with the series and should slow down some. However, Guitar Hero Metallica and Jimi Hendrix should be interesting. Even though it would probably be very difficult, they should work on getting the rights to Led Zeppelin songs to but in their games. That would be awesome.

chickenfeed9
chickenfeed9

i know quite a few people who have bought this for various platforms, including myself. I think the only thing preventing more from being sold is the price, but theres nothing but time that can fix this.

MonkeyWrench127
MonkeyWrench127

I'm not sure. I have a feeling the fact that Guitar Hero isn't doing so well is because they brought out an expensive band game, and it's just too much for a christmas present, especially with the economic crisis...

JYoung103175
JYoung103175

Well, first I am not a fanboy of any console or any game, or anything for that matter. I own both Rock Band and Guitar Hero. I think both are great games, and had fun beating and playing both. Rock Band wins because of DLC, but GH is still an awesome game. I like playing with Billy Corgan, Hendrix, Ozzy, etc etc. Something about rocking out with real rock stars is kind of like playing with your favorite player on Madden or something. I think they both kick ass, and although I think Aerosmith blows, GH Metallica and Hendrix, be real, how are those games not going to kick a$$? I like em both, go play Rock Revolution or whatever it called if you truly believe these games are garbage

hhitman1
hhitman1

i think 3 is better also. and since i bought rock band for the xbox with drums i was reluctant to shell out another 200 on a game again.. and just got the single game. Its still been pretty fun.. though not as epic/hard as 3

yaya-d
yaya-d

i have 4 but 3 is much better

da_chub
da_chub

they just need to stop putting sequels out every year. I'm not going to buy a new version every year, like COD, im stilling playing 4, and im not going to get 5. Stop making "B" sequels every year, make 1 awesome one every few years. More people will buy it.

mp2531
mp2531

I think Guitar Hero peaked with Guitar Hero 2. I loved that game and then I got Guitar Hero III and Rock Band for Christmas last year and Rock Band was so much fun and Guitar Hero III was only ok. Now I bought Rock Band 2 and only play that.

jcloverboy
jcloverboy

the new iterations should either be budgeted titles and downloadable. if the old catalogue doesn't work on furute versions (like Rock Band), I could be done with the series.

raahsnavj
raahsnavj

Well, I know it has peaked for me. I won't ever buy another GH game.

rockstar_88
rockstar_88

Aerosmith made more money from Guitar Hero: Aerosmith than they did from any of their other million-selling albums. I'd get GH: Metallica, but Activision's Neversoft has consistently disappointed me with every offering they've made since GH III, and since they aren't willing to change their forced art direction or the oft-lack of fun, I'm going to stick with Harmonix until they decide to fix this.

finaleve
finaleve

MasterNinja101 > I believe it began dying with the release of the 80's version. It's not that it was a bad game, but the fact that they charged full price for a game that didn't have as many songs in the previous version is a bit absurd. I doubt GH is going to peak. It focuses too much on one band instead of releasing good track packs.

domppa
domppa

Might be old news, but Guitar Hero: Metallica will have an Expert+ difficulty with double kick pedals. :) About time I say.

tidyspidey
tidyspidey

I think the game will continue to grow, but they need to slow down the peripheral improvement and replacement. People would be far more likely to buy each iteration of the game if they had some assurance that the new fangled version of the peripheral they're buying with it will last for some time before being replaced by the next newer model with more features. I know you can buy the game itself without the need for the new peripherals, but many, myself included, do feel obliged to get the new periph as the new game has of course been designed around the new features on the new peripheral. Forking out £70+ for a game with guitar, for it to be replaced by a better model just 6 months or less later, hurts a lot. It's precisely why I haven't gone for the other instruments yet. I'm now looking at the drums for GH given that you can add 2nd bass pedals and such. I just know that as soon as I buy them though, there will be some amazing new set.... *sigh* I suppose it's like PC gaming, you can keep waiting for the next improvement forever as they come so thick and fast

Avenger1324
Avenger1324

Why should this "expert analyst" be any more reliable than the one a week ago saying Guitar Hero had peaked?

MasterNinja101
MasterNinja101

To be quite honest I think Guitar Hero dies when Guitar Hero: Aerosmith came out. Naming a game by a single artist will lower its sales if people dont like the artist, and its also saying that the franchise is starting to make games solely for single artists. I think they should have stopped at Guitar Hero II because that's when they started the DLC system. Instead of making more and more games, they should just enable them in DLC. That's what its there for, right? And as for Rock Band, I agree that its a great game, but they should also have stopped at the first one. Remaking the same game but with different songs is just pointless.

svaubel
svaubel

Guitar Hero peaked after GH-III

cdx00
cdx00

I love all of the posts wanting an Iron Maiden game, what, you mean the band that couldn't even afford a metronome? Their music is so... jumpy. Amateur at best. Anyone with an ear for music can hear how unsyncopated the 'blasts' and rolls are.

cdx00
cdx00

Guitar Hero: Michael Angelo Batio youtube him

drswank
drswank

Not to mention Air Guitar Hero, which I saw at a Hot Topic...groan.