Analyst: GTAV to net $1 billion in sales during first month

Robert W. Baird analyst says larger installed base compared to GTA IV in 2008 and "unprecedented pentup demand" means new game will outpace predecessor at retail.

Grand Theft Auto V will net $1 billion in sales during its first month, outpacing 2008's Grand Theft Auto IV, according to Robert W. Baird analyst Colin Sebastian.

"Given the significantly higher installed base of relevant console platforms at launch, greater sales concentration among the top video game franchises, and unprecedented pentup demand, we expect GTAV to outpace GTAIV sales, and generate roughly $1 billion in retail sales during the first month," Sebastian said in a note to investors today.

GTAIV shipped 3.6 million units ($310 million) on launch-day in April 2008, 6 million units ($500 million) during its first week, and 11 million units ($900 million) during the game's first month. The game has shipped 25 million copies to date.

GTAV goes on sale tonight at midnight across the world. Its online component--Grand Theft Auto Online--will be released as a free update on October 1. For more, check out GameSpot's review.

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Discussion

333 comments
yamisniper
yamisniper

the driving is abit icy but youg et use to it plus i think you can up your driving skill

FriendBear
FriendBear

Obviously not as many, but still enough console pirates out there to warrant the claim.  After all, all's you need is a modified console which again, isn't totally out of reach for most people assuming you don't 'chip' it yourself.   I wouldn't be surprised though if the number of console pirates is catching up though to the number of PC pirates though.

nastyhotpocket
nastyhotpocket

the game is awsome...everything feels tight its fun to drive just about a hour in but i love it

sorintitus
sorintitus

It could have reached $1.5 billion mark if it had been released on PC as well...

Aleksanian
Aleksanian

Doesn't make any sense. 1 billion would mean selling about 16.5 million copies of the game in one month. I somehow doubt this will happen. 7-8 million copies in one month tops.

morrispa
morrispa

After queuing at midnight in London (no pre-order) and walking out with a PS3 copy for £38 just 10 minutes later I'm a happy (but tired!) chappy. Not off topic, bare with me...

First impressions are mixed however, whilst I love GTA primarily for the parody of life, society, corruption and power, I do get the feeling GTA has fallen into it's own joke - having played this on PS3 for a few hours. It's very straightforward, PS3 clearly struggled to run GTA iV smoothly (remember blurring filter and frame rate issues)? Whilst GTA V is 'cleaner' and much improved graphically, low-res textures and iffy frame rate while driving (which you need to do a lot), spoil an otherwise awesome experience (even my Wii-U copy of NFS with PC textures is a smoother drive)! 

GTA V should have been a next gen only experience as this game demands 1080p and locked @ 60fps to truly enjoy. By going 'this gen' and guaranteeing mega bucks sales (because of zillions of current gen consoles out there), I feel a little let down by Rockstar playing it 'safe', especially as new consoles launch are a little over ONE month away! 

I'm surprised MS or Sony didn't try and do a 'deal', as this alone could win the next console generation. Maybe Rock* are anticipating us buying this again on next gen?! 

Can't fault the effort, can perhaps query the execution.


PETERAKO
PETERAKO

"Analyst: GTAV to net $1 billion in sales during first month"

If not already

GSGuy321
GSGuy321

"The discrepancies in the data beg the question of why different research groups produce different statistics.  In answer to this question, we should look at the patterns between the conflicting reports. Studies sponsored by corporations in the entertainment industry show that piracy has a devastating effect on sales, while independent studies show that piracy has little to no effect, and may actually help sales."

http://carpanatomy.earlhaig.ca/the-non-existent-threat-of-online-piracy-may-actually-help-sales

Mercaptan
Mercaptan

Its actualy funny how GTA5 got pirated on ps3 and xbox 360 from the first day or even earlyer and they said pc gamers are the biggest pirates .... i hope maybe  this year they will release pc version to , but not a crappy port like gta 4 was :) . And if it is a port then i'll pirate the hell out of it , if its made for pc and optimised i'll definitely buy it

tightwad34
tightwad34

I just want to know if it's going to knock COD off of it's underserving pedestal as the best seller.

19James89
19James89

It's a good job that I don't have a social life, I can play GTA V until I sprout a third nipple.

deathwish026
deathwish026

I love how analysts always take the safe bet.... I am now an analyst and I predict it will sell more the 5 copies!!

Aelfredus
Aelfredus

How many people aren't from the US. Know that a in the US a "billion" is actually a thousand millions, $1.000.000.000 (9 zeroes), not $1.000.000.000.000 (12 zeroes).

X-RS
X-RS

"new game will outpace predecessor at retail.:

You figured all that out by yourself did u now? -_-

inaka_rob
inaka_rob

its also going to come out on Xbone and PS4 and many people will probably buy it a 2nd time! 

jinzo9988
jinzo9988

The install base is bigger but -clearly- there are less and less overall game sales as the generation continues.  It definitely has the potential to outpace GTA4(and probably will), but with such a wildcard like that... who really knows?

Megavideogamer
Megavideogamer

Since their are 77 million PS3's and 78 Million Xbox 360's out in the world. Grand Theft Auto 5 is the last Hurrah of the 7th generation of Videogames. Grand theft Auto 5 will become the highest selling game of this generation. So another retail record will be set. It has been a long time since the last installment so people are ready. This should be the best selling game of this year and maybe of all time. What a way to end the 7th gen.

bigtimemad
bigtimemad

I really don't care if some of you don't get this game because im getting it tonight and I will enjoy every second I play it. As for the billion in the first month I believe it will hit that number in about 10 days just like call of duty does every damn year. If it takes one month to make a billion I think that will be quite disappointing

Urizen5
Urizen5

I'm starting to think open world games that give tons of content actually make big profits. Skyrim for example. wow. Who knew, content sells.

tommynj
tommynj

Never played GTA before. Think it is a good time to start ?

DarkElement629
DarkElement629

@Aleksanian Don't forget about Special Edition, Collectors Editions, GTA V Pulse headphones......It all adds up

Hardcore253
Hardcore253

@Aleksanian GTA IV sold 11 millions copies in the first month....what makes you think GTA V wouldn't do at least that?  Plus you have to account for the Special Editions and Collector's Editions.

o016945
o016945

@morrispa GTA is not a game that they build in a single year. This game has been worked on for 4 to 5 years. So expecting them to easily just move to next generation systems isn't entirely realistic. Regardless, it will most likely migrate over in the future, and the install base of current gen coupled with next gen, will get them the sales needed. The fact that a GTA5 can even exist in any way on systems that are 7 to 8 years old, is actually quite amazing.

19James89
19James89

@morrispa Cool story bro! Ping me the ending.

megaspiderweb09
megaspiderweb09

@Mercaptan You do realise it takes money to port these games right, so saying you would pirate it does not even help getting it to PC

MysteryJ0ker
MysteryJ0ker

@deathwish026 

I must be a better analyst than you because I think it'll sell 5 million more copies sometime in the future!

pug987
pug987

@Aelfredus A billion is one thousand million everywhere. Math is universal.

inaka_rob
inaka_rob

it was leaked on Amazon Germany. but taken down a few hours later. 

tightwad34
tightwad34

@Megavideogamer My god I hope so. I have been saying all along that this is the obvious choice to unseat COD as the all time best seller. We can do our best, but I'm still only buying one copy, my copy. I will buy more if I see a friend in need.

cratecruncher
cratecruncher

@bigtimemad I'll buy it when it comes to PC and the price drops to $9.99.  It took a while but that's how I did it with GTAIV.  You played one GTA, you've played 'em all.

anakvunky
anakvunky

@tommynj play GTA1 first (and i think its free)... you will appreciate every GTA games after that.... 

nate1222
nate1222

@tommynj Dude, you should've been hammering away on GTAIII (PS2/Xbox/PC), back in 2001. Vice City in 2002. San Andreas in 2004. Then there was GTA IV (7th gen).

You missed out on four great games by now.

packtop
packtop

@tommynj From what i heard everywhere on the internet, lot of reviewer said this is the best GTA ever made, so i would say yes this is a good time to start.

PaperthinTV
PaperthinTV

@GSGuy321 you know when music gets leaked? It's because artists leak it themselves. My brother's in the music industry and tons of artists say they don't give a fuck if people download their shit for free.

Mercaptan
Mercaptan

@megaspiderweb09  A port is a spitt in the face of pc gamers , its like buying a game that its half good, i remember what bad optimization gta 4 had for pc  , i had a verry good pc but i couldnt play because the laggs and texture poping , just horrible , so why buy  a badly optimized port , if they dont  give a *** about you?

tightwad34
tightwad34

@MysteryJ0ker And 5 million more after that. See, anyone can be an analyst but I guess you have to get paid for it to count. Which leads to my opinion that analysts should not get paid anything.

tfstone
tfstone

@pug987 @Aelfredus Of course Math is universal but in German for example the English word "billion" sounds very familiar to the German word "Billion". Here comes the kicker. the German word "Billion" actually means "trillion". The German word for "billion" is "Milliarde". This is the root of sometimes colossal misunderstandings and translation errors along this lines are even made by reputable media outlets sometimes.

19James89
19James89

@nastyhotpocket I agree, I love GTA V. Thankfully I don't have a girlfriend or she'd be getting dumped right about now.

pug987
pug987

@tfstone @pug987 @AelfredusHeh, it's funny what you can learn on the Internet. My country has always used the short scale and almost all English-speaking regions use it as well so I never even knew that there were long and short scales.