Analyst: GTAV could outsell Call of Duty and go next-gen

Rockstar's latest Grand Theft Auto expected to boast $137.5 million budget, sell 18 million copies in six months, and potentially release on next-gen platforms "in some form."

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Grand Theft Auto V's release date slip won't damage the game's profitability or stop it from potentially toppling Call of Duty to become the biggest selling game of 2013, according to Sterne Agee analyst Arvind Bhatia (via GamesIndustry International).

Bhatia used a "hypothetical probability model" to calculate his predictions, estimating a development cost of $137.5 million calculated from the belief that 250 people have been working on GTAV for five years.

Using that figure, and based on the game selling "only" 15 million copies with a modest marketing campaign, Bhatia reckons Take-Two would see over $193.6 million in operating profit for GTAV.

Bhatia, however, reckons 18 million copies of Grand Theft Auto V will be sold in its first sixth months, or the time between its September 17 release and the end of Take-Two's 2014 financial year.

Cowen & Company analyst Doug Creutz (via CVG) has also said he suspects GTA V to transition to next-gen consoles after its September launch. Talking about how the predicted next-gen launch this Christmas might damage the DLC prospects of GTAV on the PS3 and 360, Creutz said "Take-Two may have plans to eventually publish GTA V on the next set of consoles in some form to offset this."

Rockstar announced a four-month delay of GTAV yesterday, with its new September release date placing the game into closer competition against holiday heavyweights such as this year's Call of Duty and Battlefield 4.

For more information on GTAV, check out GameSpot's previous coverage.

Discussion

361 comments
blaskowicz
blaskowicz

Here's hoping they don't try to scam next gen early adopters by holding off the announcement until after the September release on PS3/X360.

SwiftusMaximus
SwiftusMaximus

It will arrive for this gen and next gen, i wouldn't worry.

Bully did the same, if people remember.

blaze_craze
blaze_craze

godammit--four months? iwas planning on buying it, then just saving it until summer...fk fkfk

bigtimemad
bigtimemad

This would be idiotic to put on a next gen system without being on a ps3 or xbox 360 because there will not be alot of the next gen systems sold for them to sell this so called 17-million units by the time predicted.. As for the next gen, the grand theft needs to be made from the ground up for the programmers to learn the nuances of the new next gen systems and give us a whole new experience and not be a rushed rehash of what was created on the current gen of systems.. As for the wii u, i dont have it (yet) and if they're going to make something, make an original new game that rocks and works well and is created for their controller ya know... Do what grand theft auto 3 did for the ps2... Im just saying lol

Midnight_Twelve
Midnight_Twelve

Think GTAV is a next gen game launching on last gen consoles. 
Meanwhile I want a p.c. version for no other reason than gtaV zero friction 

Devil_wings00
Devil_wings00

well even if they held it over it wouldn't really be "next gen" in terms of anything. They would just use some slightly higher textures and run it at 1080p most likely. Still a genius way to get consoles off the shelf like twilight princess did for the wii.

deathwish026
deathwish026

this will be why its coming out so late... itl be a launch title for next gen and what a brilliant and confidently well made game it will be... 8 months is waaaaaaay too far away to start pre ordering.. il wait closer the time and get a limited edition yup

JusXice
JusXice

GTAV hands down is king and will always be the KING i have brought all and i have played all Rockstar always I mean ALWAYS delivered a masterpiece among any game in history ROCKSTAR IS THE STARS OF GAMING you have to Admit that they are!!!!! now I must calm down my fanboy energy. go ROCKSTAR wooooooohh can't wait to get my copy :3 ASAP!!!!

Metronoid
Metronoid

I think we see everything in this gen, I playing both Max payne 3 and Farcry 3 in ultra graphics at 60fps, theres a need urgently to this game comes in next gen,

Lord_Python1049
Lord_Python1049

I also find it pretty cool that Gamespot referenced an ex-Gamespot employee

Lord_Python1049
Lord_Python1049

Bhatia is Bullshitting. There are some things you cannot predict.

CommandoVD
CommandoVD

on the consoles GTA V can easily  outsell CoD,but there will be somewhat of a competition for the PC,but release dates matter the most. next what matters is the system requirements.

jesuschristmonk
jesuschristmonk

...and then sadly next year's CoD will outsell this...

itchyflop
itchyflop

the new gta v IS next gen, there's too much going on for the current systems to handle, its too big and contains too much, and look at it. 

itchyflop
itchyflop

and will both systems be here for Christmas release of gta v, its hard waiting for this to b released, and the new systems. The anticipation of whether gta v will ensure theps3 goes out in style or whether it ll sell the newer systems. I still think Sony and Microsoft are behind the delay.

itchyflop
itchyflop

so its next gen visuals were seeing ???

evil_m3nace
evil_m3nace

137,500,000 / 250 = 550,000/ 60 = 9167 a month per person...but we know that people up in management take a larger salary and that does not include the cost of hardware, facilities and whatnot...

ioshilee
ioshilee

CoD and Saint's Row? They don't have a chance against GTA :)

Willam13_basic
Willam13_basic

It's going to sell like crazy. Your opinion is incorrect.

gen85
gen85

i dont think its gonna do as well as they think theirs alot more competition these days and saints row outright stole all the ideas that made san andreas the best sandbox game ever. and switching between 3 characters dosnt really appeal to me.

tgwolf
tgwolf

So, in practical terms, gamers want more garbage to satisfy their ever-sickening minds. They are now at the point of choosing crime sims and disreputable gaming options than even boring but violent shooters...This is a sick sick world and if I had the means I would start looking for another one to inhabit, because I am basically disowning this one. You guys, meaning those that make up this statistic, should be ashamed of yourselves and aren't, and that makes you DISGUSTING!

THM80
THM80

 If it comes to Wii U then it'll already be next gen.

Rocket2Uranus
Rocket2Uranus

sand box, open world... FPS.... with quests and multiplayer?
ofcourse.... it's gonna do better than COD

Pointzeroblack
Pointzeroblack

uh battlefield 4 is not coming out this year....

vincent_tai
vincent_tai

If it's so easy to "upgrade" a game to a next gen concole, we would have a HD version of FF VII long ago...

Frost71
Frost71

I can't see GTAV going next gen, If in fact they have been developing this game for the past 5 years. Why risk your profits and a game they are expecting to sell millions of copies on a next gen console? You can't sell millions of copies on a console millions of people don't own. They will go the safe route and go with xbox 360 and ps3, there isn't any reason not to.

heyhmk
heyhmk

yes you are right bully did the same . and do you have psp or xbox 360

Devil_wings00
Devil_wings00

@itchyflop Even if it comes out on the new consoles, it won't be next gen. It will just being running in native 1080p with some higher res textures. It won't look uber amazing because it has clearly been designed for the current gen. If it does come out new machines then I'm going to take a wild stab and say that was a last minute decision ;p

Herbaceous
Herbaceous

@tgwolf Lol... You might want to take a deep breath there, before you give yourself a hernia.

The GTA bashing bandwagon was a thing created, mostly, by the media (and in some form as a marketing strategy). For the most part, GTA has always been a fairly normal mix of driving/shooting/action, with a story to bind it. It no sicker than donning an AK47 and shooting your way through enemies in any other violent video game.

That's not to say there weren't some very sick videos of people playing the game (murdering hookers etc.) but that's down to the individual more than the designers.

It also just dawned on me that I think I smell a troll :P

thebeachguy90
thebeachguy90

@tgwolf Looks like someone just got out of the cave and realized this world isn't all butterflies and rainbows.

t3hninj4
t3hninj4

@tgwolf@tgwolf Umm, what? So any form of art or entertainment featuring morally dubious characters or violence is out, then? Because if you're morally opposed to the depiction of violence and immorality, then you're morally opposed to the chief subject matter of a huge percentage of books, movies, short stories, paintings, songs, poems, and more. Video games are not that different from other mediums, and your hand wringing isn't that different from the moral outrage over, say, Psycho, or 40's horror comics, or Rock N Roll, or violent western novellas, or any of the other scary new things that were supposed to be the downfall of human civilization. 


Crime and Punishment? Fargo? The fucking Fast and the Furious movies? Every Guy Richie movie ever? All of them feature violence and morally ambiguous protagonists, and as such are clearly "disguisting," right? For that matter, so do Morrowind and Baldur's Gate, two games that you (rightfully) praised in your user ratings. Or does the fact that they take place in a fantasy world somehow make it okay?

Devil_wings00
Devil_wings00

@DaneGamer lol you don't know much about tech then do you. Even if the new consoles support 4k, the horsepower these machines would have in them would make them cost thousands. Even modern PC gaming systems using top of the line GPU's or dual GPU's (which are 400-500 bucks a piece) would sweat at 4k. These new systems are rumored to be using APU's (last gen bulldozer apu's to boot) which is the second from the lowest of the low end in terms of GPU performance. They might have 4k video support but the games will never be running at greater then native 1080p at 30fps if the rumored specs are to be believed. Even if the system is a bit more powerful it won't be THAT much more powerful since they have to sell them at a reasonable price. I doubt Sony is going to be selling a system at 700 bucks and at a loss, like last time. Even if they did that and the loss was over a thousand per system sold it would still struggle with running games at 4k. So ya don't expect that to happen.

Devil_wings00
Devil_wings00

@vincent_tai Well it really is that easy, PC ports are made all the time. It's easy to upgrade a current game made with current tech because all they have to do it run it at a higher native res and upscale the textures to that res...done. Fans do it through mods all the time, so it can't be that tough for dev's with whole teams at their disposal. 

 It's not easy to just HDify a 15 year old game since you know they would have to build it from the ground up from scratch. Just HDing ff7 wouldn't really make it look that much better. I know because you can already run FF7 in native 1080p (or higher) on the PC version. It just looks clearer but the game still doesn't look very good ;p You can mod the ever living crap out of ff7 replacing the textures/models for virtually everything and while it looks better, it still doesn't look great. The game is just to old to toss an HD paint job on it. It would need to be remade from scratch to bring it up to snuff.

Coseniath
Coseniath

@vincent_tai  Well actually the real reason is that they believe that Final Fantasy VII is a legend and a guarantee success. Its like their trump card.

If they want to make it with the last graphics engine (CryEngine 3, Unreal 4, FrostBite 2, Luminous) it will take 3,5 years to complete (that's what people from SquareEnix said) and I suppose over $50m budget (maybe over $100m, they already created a movie for Final Fantasy with budget $200m, they will probably spend a lot for the game that made Final Fantasy popular allover the world).

Maybe they are keeping Final Fantasy VII for a day that they will have financial problems and just a DX9 version (low budget obviously) of FFVII might save the company from bankruptcy.

I just hope that they will remake the Final Fantasy VII with the latest tech which many of the old players such myself will buy it and also it will attract new players too (it has already good gameplay, epic music, godly and huge story so combining it with last tech graphics is a win win).

flashflood55
flashflood55

@vincent_taiIf you haven't heard Square Enix's response they said that they will wait till another FF sells as well as FF VII.

t3hninj4
t3hninj4

@Frost71 If anything, I'd expect them to release it as a current gen and next gen game. It wouldn't be too hard to upscale things a bit. Just look at the PC version of GTA IV: all the same textures and animations, and yet it runs smoother, has a better draw distance, and generally looks quite a bit better than the Xbox version, even without mods/

itchyflop
itchyflop

@Devil_wings00 @itchyflop you think?? its very confusing, where  have rockstar said it was on ps3?? and i mean no disrespect here, weve all seen the trailer, u really think that the current machines can handle that, look at the size and scale of it. I find it difficult to believe rockstar would do all the work for release on the ps3 and not know when the new machines were arriving. So what ur saying is it ll be running like the pc would with high texture and frame rate of around 55-60 ?? somethings afoot here like the new star wars 1313, that doesnt look next gen, or star trek.

bladetarsai
bladetarsai

@t3hninj4 @tgwolf

I Second everything t3hninj4 said (Cyber Hi 5) way to kick (people trying to take the high ground by insulting everyone else to make themselves feel better but in fact have no high ground to stand on)'s ASS! - try saying that after a few drinks

JusXice
JusXice

@Coseniath I respect your insight in this, but let be realistic here why do many hardcore FFVII fans want a remake so badly? They can just make a HD edition with just high res-graphics and keep everything in the original to save them trouble and money and what if it does attract new players?  Perhaps a little, but not many I love Final Fantasy VII myself and i grew up with the game, but the idea of a Remake will destroy Square Enix and i think they know this for a fact and keeping it safe. 

YoungPrinceT
YoungPrinceT

@flashflood55 @vincent_tai The only way Square Enix will make a FF games that sells better then VII s if they remake VII.  Square Enix is full of shit with that statement.

vincent_tai
vincent_tai

Yes I heard that.  It was probably one of the worst excuse for procrastination. They are basically saying they are not doing it.

Frost71
Frost71

@DaneGamer , true but in the instance of lets say xbox "720" and xbox 360 your talking about a difference between maybe two million 720's and over 75 million 360's. I just don't see them taking the risk with such a large investment. They have zero reason to care about the opening sales of a console. That's MS and Sony's problem.

Coseniath
Coseniath

@JusXice @Coseniath There is a good HD remake bootleg (0040 atm) from Pitbrat at qhimm forums. (around 20GB+ of installation). 

A Final Fantasy VII remake will destroy Square-Enix? I don't think so. They can make it for PS4/PC (like the tech demo they did for PS3 and they created the hype for a remake). Final Fantasy the movie and Final Fantasy XIV destroy/ed Square-Enix. 

With your logic (and I would agree with you :P), they would't make a Final Fantasy XIV MMO neither would remake it. But they did. So I don't see a reason (from profits point speaking) not to make a low cost DX9 remake of FFVII. 

The problem is the rerelease they did. They shouldn't. I think they did it for some cash. But by releasing it its like they said: "Take this for now, and as for a remake we will discuss it again in a couple of  years..."