Analyst expects GTAV on Xbox One, PS4 in 2014

Robert W. Baird analyst Colin Sebastian says Rockstar's open-world game to hit next-generation consoles next year to "extend the value of the franchise."

According to Robert W. Baird analyst Colin Sebastian, Rockstar Games' open-world game Grand Theft Auto V will be released on the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One in 2014.

In a note to investors today, Sebastian said releasing the game on next-generation platforms would "help extend the value of the franchise."

GTAV launched on Tuesday and generated $800 million in 24 hours, setting a launch-day record for parent publisher Take-Two Interactive as well as the Grand Theft Auto series overall.

Sebastian called this figure today the "largest entertainment property launch in history."

"We are now modeling 13-14 million units shipped in F2Q. We believe there is still potential upside to our targets," he said. "However, given the possibility that sales of GTA are front-loaded, we will await further sales data before adjusting our expectations further."

The PS4 launches in North America on November 15, while the Xbox One is out on November 22.

GTAV's multiplayer component--Grand Theft Auto Online--will be released as a free update on October 1. For more on GTAV, check out GameSpot's review.

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Discussion

341 comments
stewilsonthc
stewilsonthc

XBOX ONE NEEDS THIS GAME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

therion_forever
therion_forever

By march 2014, there will be 5.5millions PS4 ou there... and around 3.5millions XB1.

Almost 10 million next gen consoles in march... I do believe Rockstar will release GTAV by this time... too early, and they can spoil current gen sales, and have a small next gen base... to late, and there will also be dozens of new games to choose from. 

So, get ready for GTA V on PS4 and XB1 in march30th 2014... And 6 months later, PC!

frigginjoe
frigginjoe

Analyst makes another obvious prediction the 11 year old who rode a skateboard past your house knew and collects another paycheck.

Spartan_418
Spartan_418

I imagine that pretty much all of the early PS4 or X1 adopters who might be interested in playing a next-gen version of GTA V would have already bought the current-gen version. In which case, they'd be asking all of their potential customers to buy it a second time.

Maybe they could do the $10 upgrade thing, but that would severely impact the profitability of a next-gen port

jgartland
jgartland

I imagine it's a very straight forward decision as to whether to adapt for the next gen or PC; is it profitable? Is the cost of converting sufficiently less than the expected revenue from sales? I imagine the PC revenue can be reasonably estimated from GTA4's sales, as for next gen, they'll probably wait and see what the initial install base is and whether GTA:Online still has legs or not..

slainta
slainta

So, if it comes out on consoles sometime in 2014, probably middle of it if ever, does it mean the PC will see it not before 2015.. if ever? Maybe some people should consider switching to console! 

justerthought
justerthought

I've considered the prospect of GTAV just appearing as GTA Online for PS4 but this doesn't stack up. The GTA Online map is the GTAV single player map. If you go to all the work getting the engine up and running on the map for online, you have already done all the hard work so it's silly not to add the single player to fill out the game offering.

If Rockstar just give us GTA Online, they can only charge a £10 upgrade for those who bought the PS3 version otherwise gamers are going to feel duped.

I believe GTAV on PS4 will be offering more not less. I predict we will get single player and multiplayer, plus some other goodies making it a special edition to entice players to buy it a second time as the ultimate version taking it forward into the future. My guess is free DLC additional story sweeteners and maybe more detailed content creation tools or the multiplayer.

If I was really optimistic I would say they will give us everything in the PS3 version, plus another island with another city such as San Francisco and additional stories.

Fine_TableLamp
Fine_TableLamp

I would totally buy GTA V on next gen after playing what I have on this gen, especially If it means less pop in while driving and stuff. Also, if they decide to make any DLC content for it in the next year and they release it as just extra content already bundled with the next gen version that would be sweet!

Micra-IRL-
Micra-IRL-

i'm not sure if GTA V will come out as a single player on next gen games, but i'm sure we will see that GTA Online for next gen consoles..

iampenguin
iampenguin

I think that the industry is just trying to get a last push of sales of current gen. I really think it will  come out.

francisjairam16
francisjairam16

Dan Houser said that Rockstar is interested in Next Gen but there is no chance of GTA 5 being on Next Gen. He said that the PC is still up for consideration. 

MrCoolGuy420
MrCoolGuy420

This year I'm saying fuck call of duty ghost.

For the price that I paid last year for black ops 2 and the season pass,I can use that same amount of money and get 2 games. Grand theft auto 5 and beyond two souls.

MrCoolGuy420
MrCoolGuy420

I'd rather spend 60.00 buying grand theft auto 5, instead of doing the whole call of duty thing every year having to pay 65.00 for a game, then paying an additional 50.00 for a season pass gets old. Grand theft auto online will be a free add on update, and people are lucky rockstar isn't charging for this mode.

I_Guess
I_Guess

"God has gifted humanity with analysts, so they can tell you what you already know.

God's third best creation, after Internet and the mankind."

                                                                                                                             the Bible

Hal3x
Hal3x

I really hope so. Because My ps3 won't take discs anymore so I can get it by PS4. So please stfu PC elitists I know your anxious to get it too that doesn't mean PS4 and Xbone can't have it either. 

Heclogit
Heclogit

They actually want people to buy the game 3 times. So they will wait 6 months. Release a PC version that intentionally has some bugs and bad coding. Then around holiday next year release the all important PS4 version.

MJ-X
MJ-X

ANALyst says GTAV will be released for next gen in 2014 which also happens be the start of next gen..... *MIND BLOWN*

These analysts crack me up and what makes it even more ridiculous is them getting paid for saying things like this.

RussellGorall
RussellGorall

"Only Rockstar wants you to pay full price twice, so they have yet to announce anything"


There, finished the article.

JKeyz90
JKeyz90

i hope this is true hopefully not too long of a wait though it's bad enough i have to wait this long for next gen consoles :( 

negativeions
negativeions

The sun will rise tomorrow. I'm an analyst, give me money you f*ckers.

Gamer_4_Fun
Gamer_4_Fun

I will buy it again Rockstar, cause I fucking love mmkay? Also, wish you guys could give us a discount for us to upgrade to the next-gen version. I will be happy if the discount would be 50% :)

SuperDutchy
SuperDutchy

I've just about beaten GTA V on PS3 already, but I'm ready and willing to buy it again and play through it again for the PS4.  THIS GAME IS SO GOOD.

itchyflop
itchyflop

and again what benefits will ps4 owners have with this game, better frame rates, 1080 visuals ???

johnnylex
johnnylex

I predict the sun will rise tomorrow, does that make me an analyst?

Bigjoe1627
Bigjoe1627

I will not buy it on PS4 or Xbox One!

greenpolyp
greenpolyp

The Graphics are so bad its sad. Either that or I have been playing P.C games for too long and I'm addicted to Eye Candy.

blkgto
blkgto

Why are we paying attention to an analyst stating what we already knew to be true...

topeira
topeira

@Spartan_418 i think that about 6 months from now the amount of ppl buying GTAV on the current gen consoles will diminish significantly and a next-gen GTAV release wouldnt hurt the sales of the current gen so much anyways. if anything, the ppl who bought GTAV on this gen will want to experience it in a higher quality for another playthrough or for online and will gladly try it again. i just think that 6 months from now (a wild guess) R* will have very little to lose in current gen. it's a remarketing of a good product and they will make good money on it still. espceially if they release the PC version (oh god please, i pray of this) at the same time. they can re-market the game with the DLC in another PR blitz. 

justerthought
justerthought

@francisjairam16 

He didn't say that at all. He was asked whether he is working on GTA6 on PS4 and he said we have no other GTA game in development for PS4. Only the current GTA. Meaning they are only working on GTAV and that's being ported for PS4. People are adding words into his mouth and reading his answers wrong. Websites are mis-quoting all over the net. The initial question is being ignored, but that affects the meaning of his answer. Check the source interview on the Guardian website.

tjkraz
tjkraz

@francisjairam16 We'll see.  

GTA 3, Vice City and San Andreas were all backward compatible on the last gen.  Every single Xbox 360 console every sold can still play those games, and some PS3s.  

I'm assuming Rockstar plans to release DLC for GTA V.  If so, I wouldn't be surprised if sales lag with many gamers moving on to XB1 and PS4.  

Even if Rockstar doesn't have the resources to dramatically enhance the gameplay, I'll be shocked if they don't release a modest upgrade which runs on XB1 and PS4.  Bundle the game with one or two DLC packs for another $60 and many people will buy as they start to move further and further away from 360/PS3.  

tjkraz
tjkraz

@MrCoolGuy420 I hear 'ya.  Unfortunately a GTA V doesn't come around every year.  

The COD games can get expensive, no doubt about that.  But considering the amount of playtime received from that purchase, it can still be very worthwhile.  

With MW3, I bought the game and season pass.  And have spent literally hundreds of hours playing that game.  

Wasn't as into Black Ops 2, so I skipped the DLC.  To this day, I still play MW3 more than BO2.  

Ghosts is a Day 1 buy for me.  Will wait and see on the DLC.  Even without the DLC, I can pretty much guarantee I'll spend more time with Ghosts than many other $60 games I've bought over the years.  Still very enjoyable...hopefully even more so on Next Gen.  

Kracka2205
Kracka2205

@itchyflop If it's ported correctly, better lighting and shadows, higher-resolution textures, better draw distance and LOD, more AA and AF, and yes, 1080p, and possibly 60 FPS

JuanKing
JuanKing

@johnnylex definitely! The saying "No Sh*t Sherlock" came to mind when i read this article.

DiggityDoggie79
DiggityDoggie79

@greenpolyp  

The graphics are great, they're just covered in jagged edges.  I've been playn more and more and I'm havin a blast.  I can't wait for the PC version.

cuprashoe
cuprashoe

@greenpolyp I kind of know what you mean but It's such a dam good game I kind of forget about the horrendous draw distances and lack of AA.

Kickable
Kickable

@blkgto too much money lying around, need to clear up some space.

CiTizenMaSSaKre
CiTizenMaSSaKre

@justerthought You also are adding words into his mouth. Most people online add words into developers mouth. He NEVER said R* was working on GTA for PS4 he just said they were working on GTA, which means they can me constantly working on GTA Online to keep adding content to it. 

capper64
capper64

@tjkraz @francisjairam16 Their game just made a billion dollars in three days, I find it hard to believe they don't have the resources to dramatically enhance the gameplay. That said, I don't think they will. My guess is the game will just be straight up ported to the new consoles, maybe a few technical issues ironed out and any DLC included.

justerthought
justerthought

@tjkraz @MrCoolGuy420 

Although GTA doesn't come round that often, there are other great open world games that all come with 5 year cycles. They all jump in when there is a space. so you get a constant flow. Assassin's Creed 4, Red Dead Redempton 2, Just Cause 4, Far Cry 4 and the next Elder Scrolls.

They offer far more variety than COD. I gave up on the COD tread mill ages ago. I'm bored with FPS multiplayer. Maybe the new open world FPS multiplayer games will bring a breath of fresh air.

Open world will be big news next gen. COD need to change or they will be a dinosaur. They do what they do perfectly, but it's getting old.

justerthought
justerthought

@CiTizenMaSSaKre @justerthought

Exactly. GTA Online cannot exist without a PS4 version because it carries on forever into the future with new stuff getting added. When people move to PS4. GTA Online will die a death if PS4 does not take it forward. Pure logic.

There is a difference between claiming Rockstar have definitely said something, and reading between the lines and working out what they have omitted to say.

Example. Rockstar have had multiple opportunities to claim GTAV is not coming to PS4, but they haven't have they. You know that. Only websites have added the words 'GTAV not coming to PS4.' Why haven't Rockstar claimed it's not coming to PS4. Because that would hurt PS3 sales. Cancelled orders. If it hurts PS3 sales, why not just bury it once and for all and say it's not coming to PS4.

The reason, it would be a lie to claim GTAV is not coming to PS4. They have GTAV on PS4 waiting in the wings.

Notice how I am not putting incorrect words into their mouth. I have never claimed Rockstar have said GTAV is coming to PS4. I merely identifying inconsistencies and the reason why they exist by pointing out certain facts. Big difference.

Other reasons to support my 'between the lines' conclusion, such as all the screenshots include bokeh depth of field blur and smooth high quality anti aliasing. None of these are present in the current gen versions.

To include the features would need a major overhaul of the game engine. It would be too expensive to do that for just a few publicity screen grabs. Only the PC and PS4 have modern power GPU cable of rendering those features, but they have to be present in the game engine.

The current gen versions are not the lead dev platform, they are clearly optimised ports. Rockstar knew 5 years ago that the dev timescale would collide with the next gen launch, give or take a year. So they would have planned ahead before spending $170 million and have it locked to current gen tech.

GTAV was created using generic agnostic code, a scaleable game engine using high res assets put together on high spec PC's. That means they have the versatility to port high quality versions to PC and PS4.

Take all that with what they are not saying, and a picture starts to emerge. GATV PS4 will launch 6 moths after the PS3 version when sales start to dry up. Around April, the start of the new financial year. Perfect timing to relaunch the title and sell it all over again making share holders very happy indeed. Plus, it takes GTA Online forward with a platform having a 10 year life cycle. Each console overlaps by 5 years.

We may never ever see GTA6. It may all be DLC added to the GTA Online form now on. Even the new single player stuff. Everything being bolted on to the GTAV map, so the world grows in size rather than just a new isolated map. That seems to be the Rockstar vision. It tallies with everything they have said up to now.


topeira
topeira

@tjkraz @capper64 i think almost all games are created with a higher version of textures or even meshes than what is used in game. the higher res textures are created for best case scenario and then compressed. this is why most games have a PC version with higher res textures - no one re-does the textures from scratch nor consider a PC version from the get go. 

tjkraz
tjkraz

@capper64 What I meant regarding "resources to enhance" relates to graphics.  I can't see them redoing all of the models and artwork to bring it up to par with next gen consoles.  

However, it's possible that the base artwork created for the current versions is of higher quality, but was optimized at a lower resolution to run on current gen hardware.  

Given how Rockstar has ported older games to pretty much every console, computer OS and smartphone under the sun, seems very likely we will see GTA 5 on PS4 and XB1 someday.  Just don't know how long it will take to arrive and the areas in which it will be improved / enhanced (if any.)