Analyst: Euro PS3 delay threatens US publishers

Sony's reduced hardware allotment could hurt the bottom line of companies that banked on the system's launch; may spur pubs to delay some games until next year.

by

UBS Investment Research analyst Michael Wallace assessed the PlayStation 3 and Wii launch plans of a number of US publishers in a note to investors today, and not all of the news was positive. While Wallace noted that software sales were already up about 3 percent for the year so far (matching his original prediction for the full year), he warned that the delay of the European release of Sony's system may have a negative impact on some companies' bottom lines this year.

Wallace had expected Sony to ship about 500,000 PS3 systems to Europe by the end of the year, but with the system not expected to release there until March of 2007, he worries about the impact it will have on US publishers. Aside from having 500,000 less consumers to sell their games to, publishers may decide to delay games that had been expected this year into 2007 to take advantage of what will be a larger user base. However, Wallace doesn't specify any particular titles that would be in danger of this and notes that if Sony can ship 1.5 million PS3s to the US by year's end, it would make up for the shortfall of systems caused by the European delay.

As for which publishers face the biggest downside as a result of the delay, Wallace said that Activision has built its quarter around the PS3 launch more than other publishers and could suffer the largest downside as a result. While he expects Electronic Arts to have four or five PS3 games at launch compared to Activision's three, Wallace also said that EA has a more balanced portfolio for the quarter.

Even the caution about Activision is tempered with a note that the publisher could make up any losses in other areas of its business. Wallace said that Nintendo's expected 2 million Wii units available for the US by the end of the year is more than he expected. As a result, Activision and THQ are best positioned to take advantage of that, with five games and four games expected for the Wii launch, respectively. (Wallace does not issue reports on foreign publishers like France-based Ubisoft, which has announced a lineup of eight Wii titles and is expected to offer PS3 launch titles as well, including Blazing Angels: Squadrons of WWII.)

Wallace's list of expected Wii and PS3 launch titles from the publishers he covers is included below.

Activision
Call of Duty 3 (PS3, Wii)
Marvel: Ultimate Alliance (PS3, Wii)
Tony Hawk's Project 8 (PS3)
Tony Hawk's Downhill Jam (Wii)
World Series of Poker (Wii)
Rapala Tournament Fishing (Wii)

Atari
Dragon Ball Z: Budokai Tenkaichi 2 (Wii)

Electronic Arts
Madden NFL 07 (PS3, Wii)
Need for Speed Carbon (PS3, Wii)
Tiger Woods PGA Tour 07 (PS3)
Fight Night Round 3 (PS3)
NBA Live 07 (PS3)

Midway
Ant Bully (Wii)
Happy Feet (Wii)
Rampage: Total Destruction (Wii)
The Grim Adventures of Billy and Mandy (Wii)

Take-Two
NBA 2K7 (PS3)
NHL 2K7 (PS3)
College Hoops 2K7 (PS3)

THQ
Cars (Wii)
SpongeBob SquarePants: Creature From the Krusty Krab (Wii)
Avatar: The Last Airbender (Wii)
Barnyard (Wii)

Discussion

147 comments
_Sam_
_Sam_

I'm sure they'll do well in the long run

Andron666
Andron666

Only the bad games will have trouble. The good games will get months of advance hype.

daqua_99
daqua_99

It makes sense .... Sony is really inconsiderate, telling people months in advance that the PS3 will be worldwide, making them publishers put in $$$$ investments and then stuffing them up by saying less consoles will be available .... don't worry, just make the games for the Wii and it'll make up for your loss, publishers ...

Mr_Bodywave
Mr_Bodywave

"(I honestly dont care about all this motion or tilt sensing stuff, im happy sitting a on a couch not moving" This I think is what is going to ruin the Wii. The motion sensing will get old and people will tire of having to hack their way through the 1,000 enemy with their sword. Or batting for every player, or throwing every pitch. It will be wicked fun at first--and get old fast. That is what I think will happen.

SilentHillX
SilentHillX

From an (imo) unbiased point of view on this particular matter: the classic Nintendo software insult-kiddie games: Take a look at Midway and THQs entire launch line up for the Wii. I mean its not helping. Stereotypes are usually created for a reason. Its nice to see some actual third party support (cough-Gamecube-cough) this time around for Nintendo. If only some of these companies would break the mold a bit ya know, and it doesnt have to be Soldier Of Fortune either, just something with a different kind of spunk to loop in more gamers (i.e. me) Point in case. Take the PS franchise Resident Evil. RE4 was one best selling games on that entire console, and it was one of the few games on the system rated M. So that obviously tells you Nintendo fans crave and can eat up some blood and guts, if done right, just as much as their Mario. All in all Nintendo might actually get me, and a lot of other people I know, to buy one of their consoles (I honestly dont care about all this motion or tilt sensing stuff, im happy sitting a on a couch not moving) if they start pumping out some new fresh IPs, and not just their classic 1st party games over and over. Cmon Nintendo you can do it! Until that time comes, ill be stickin with my PS360 Take it easy.

Japster19981
Japster19981

piecake I know that we don't use proper punctuation on the Internet, but we do use some form of it as a standard. Notice the little dots at the end of each sentence, thus ending one Idea and beginning a new one with ease. As for the situation at hand, everything looks bleak for Sony. But then again it's always darkest before dawn.

Alday_316
Alday_316

For some reason, I dont like "Wallace" very much...lol

piecake
piecake

sandy4v well NAW xbox and game cube lost last time POWER DOES NOT COUNT for Bad word whos out first 360 whos got more games 360 n64 won does that meen the gc won naw sony can't bank on the suces of there last gen 360 has already won give up MON THE 360!!!!!

javajoe96work
javajoe96work

This is for all the fan boys out there. Ah, the clatter of the fan boys. It reminds of you grade school and dodge ball and yo mama jokes. Can you hear the pre-pubescent squeals of the boys screaming with blind fanaticism about their console of choice? But you know what; some of the funniest are the ones who claim they are not a fan boy. Ah, how great it is. Wait, what am I talking about? How is this great? This horrible racket of immature people plague every news post with them going back and forth with no judge to declare a victor. It is sad. I wish you all would look to see if yours have dropped yet and then act accordingly. Also listening to these arguments is hilarious. It kills me with calling the 360 xbox1.5 which apparently means that Microsoft only needs a .5 to compete with the ps3. Think people before you post.

Mr_Bodywave
Mr_Bodywave

Elite_Jounin--right--so this time Xbox360 has the advantage that the PS2 had last time. And just like last time the console coming out a year later (PS3) has a Nintendo console to dilute its demand. Except this time around it looks like the Wii is more competitive than the GC.

cjcr_alexandru
cjcr_alexandru

Bashing, bashing, bashing... "Sony is the best", "Nintendo has only kiddy games", " X360 has more powerful proccesors", etc. You should realise that if Sony, Nintendo or Microsoft wouldn't have made this consoles you wouldn't have had so many games to play. And we shouldn't forget the PC which, in my opinion, is the most powerful gaming platform (hardware wise).

j_vega07
j_vega07

"Elite_Jounin Nintedo has a few games that prove some gameplay just not enough, plus how many time are you going to re-make mario? " hehehe true fact...................but that goes for Sony How much are they going to explote Final Fantasy....so its basically bussiness

RahKayne
RahKayne

Arcad if you think rumble matters then you are in denial. I'm sure people played games without rumble before it came. What's more is that rumble is just feedback, it doesn't provide anything for your games. Tilt function can be used to enhance your gaming experience because it actually inputs information to the console, such as in flying games.

Elite_Jounin
Elite_Jounin

Nintedo has a few games that prove some gameplay just not enough, plus how many time are you going to re-make mario?

getoconnection
getoconnection

Elite- I have to say I disagree with you on the Kiddy Nintendo thing. Nintendo has not had 3rd party support from dev because they did not put in the work to get them. Remember when Nintendo was considered tame by Sega fans, did that affect 3rd party support? Plus whats wrong with selling a few million copies of a kiddy games with proven game play?

Elite_Jounin
Elite_Jounin

"Mr_Bodywave" I understand what your saying but realize this, xbox came out after ps2 which already gave it an advantage. Let s be serious if they made an equal system the xbox would not sell any units and the sad part is , is that xbox has a little edge over ps2 not a whole lot.....in others words would xbox release a system on a sony launch date???? Your better off trying to sell bill gates a MAC PC.

Elite_Jounin
Elite_Jounin

"Mr_Bodywave" I understand what your saying but realize this, xbox came out after ps2 which already gave it an advantage. Let me serious if they made an equal system the xbox would not sell any units and the sad part is , is that xbox has a little edge over ps2 not a whole lot.....in others would xbox release a system on a sony launch date???? Your better off trying to sell bill gates a MAC PC.

Mr_Bodywave
Mr_Bodywave

sandy4v---remember the xbox was better than the PS2--didn't help it that much. Most of those things mentioned don't really help gameplay that much. Bluray doesn't much (most games have no trouble with 10GB limit). Motion sensing, but no rumble. 7 processors versus 3 more powerful/general purpose processors. The xbox360 will have a larger installed base than PS3 for sure in 2006, 2007, 2008 (very likely), and maybe through 2009. (could be that PS3 never catches xbox360). The wild card in this is the Wii. It looks like it will do well at launch--will it maintain that momentum or drop off? One thing is for sure--PS3 won't dominate like it did with PS2, it may not even be market leader. Come March 2007, the installed base will likely be about 55% for Xbox, 27% Wii, and 18% PS3.

sandy4v
sandy4v

whatever the rivals do and PS3 seems to lag behind right now in the war but if we say real next gen then its only PS3 7 proccessors Blu ray HDMI with motion sensing hard to beat these facts later when more games will be developed and developers come to know about the power of PS3 and 50GB storage on single Blu Ray disc neither 10GB of Microsoft or 4.2 GB of Nintendo will beat the performance that we can truly say "NEXTGEN" which will be from sony

robbie80
robbie80

yea rigth 500,000 for europe launch dont think so more like we be getting 1 million or 1.5 million like the american because were waiting to march sony cant just look after america and not care about europe

Mr_Bodywave
Mr_Bodywave

The PS3 has a significant uphill battle in front of it. It has teh Xbox360 that has similar tech but is cheaper (yeah yeah, Blu ray, etc.--but still they are close enough in features to not matter that much) and has about a 10mil unit lead. You have the Wii that has lots of games comign out, lots of hype, and is way cheaper. Plus the Wiii will supposedly have 6mil sold by end of March. PS3s are going to be 1/2 that probably. It is looking more and more likely that the PS3 will be outsold for some time, largely due to production problems, but that doesn't matter in the end. They are going to sell the fewest in 2006 and quite possibly the fewest in 2007. Plus with the loss per console, it will hit Sony hard in the Pocket Book. MS is sort of sitting in a sweet spot. They can compete somewhat on price with Wii (drop teh Core by $50) and can really put pressure on Sony with price too. Their games look great and lots of games on PS3 are going to be on X360 (GTA4 being a big one). in 2007 Xbox360 has Halo3 and GTA4--and they will have a pretty good sized installed base at that point, so more GTA4 will probably be sold for x360 than PS3. Publishers notice these things. If PS3 stumbles along and it takes until May-July to really get production to full capacity, then they will be very much behind the curve. It would be just that much longer before they have a price drop and would give MS that much longer to lower costs to make price cuts too. (Side note--I think MS is going to come out with a new Xbox--HDMI port, HD-DVD drive-movies ONLY, and a larger HD--and do those instead of a price cut. They could do that for not too much money most likely and then it would be "equal" to the $600 PS3. If they are selling the external HD-DVD for $200, then incorporating it into Xbox360 would lickly cost $75 or less. and upping the HD from 20GB to say 100GB would cost very little also--maybe $25.). Another thought--I think MS is playing it conservative on their estimates for xbox360 sales through June. Why? Just like the old days at MS--underestimate so you can exceed expectations and look good. "We estimated 13-15mil, but really sold 16mil--beating even our upper limit!". And the Wii. I am still not bullish on it. They seem to have much better 3rd party support than with GC, but too much of those 3rd party games aren't exclusives. That leaves the 1st party games. They are big, but they didn't save teh GC--and come out too infrequently. Plus, supposedly 50% of US homes are going to have HD by end of 2007--that is factor that hurts Nintendo and helps PS3/Xbox360. It shoudl be interesting. Plus should be fun to watch how xbox360 does this holiday. I am quite sure we will hear how they sold more in the holiday quarter than xxx console or of "any console" or "any next generation console" or whatever spin. Should also be interesting to see how they do in Japan (could they do any worse?)

Elite_Jounin
Elite_Jounin

OK FIRST AND FORMOST screw all the talk about the launch titles for ps3. Lets get down to the facts I'll make it short and sweet.....WII or I should say NINTENDO will NEVER I repeat NEVER HAVE THE THIRD PARTY SUPPORT THAT PLAYSTATION HAS it just wont happen because Nintendo is still around for the LITTLE kids not adults, and ps3 might not have the hottest launch games but the fact is ladies and gentlemen they will have the best games for any system.....and on yeah have you forgotten that this thing has a "CELL PROCESSOR"? NEVER BEFORE SEEN? nintedo doesn't even have the hardware to tackle ps3 I rest my case.

HeyzeusNYC
HeyzeusNYC

Idk All these games that are coming out are coming out for the Xbox360 or has already came out so why waste 600 bucks when I can just use the 600 to buy these games... Damn You sony U guys think your soo slick... oh ya By the Way EA u guys Know how to Port Games pretty good so that means all your games will be ported from the X360 to the PS3.. Another thing is X360 is already on their second generation of gaming.... if u notice a year ago the x360 looked ehh ok... a year later aka now the games look crazy!!! Remember when the ps2 games looked like Dreamcast Graphics... Look at the ps2 now their games look sick Sony and Wii are just starting!!!

aRcad33
aRcad33

all of those titles are on 360.....hmmmm....and already have rumble....hmm.... YEA RUMBLE DOES MATTER, AND IF U DONT THINK SO UR IN DENIAL...

j_vega07
j_vega07

rdcarvallo I agree with you these are not the only titles coming out on launch date and that also goes for the Wii......I meab yea most of the games of this list are crap........ but there is also Red Steel, Trauma center also dragonball in like 2 or 3 days after launch and some others as for the PS3 C'mon we are missing Square enix on the launch I DON'T THINK SO!!!!!!

rdcarvallo
rdcarvallo

When people wants to complain about Sony they become blind to the fact that the list of titles here doesn't include the japanese developers; Namco, Capcom, Konami, SquareEnix, even Sony!! If you look and say that all of those games are coming also to the X360 is because US publishers(the only listed in the article) need to support the only "American Gaming Machine"!!

Maquis_UK
Maquis_UK

what aboot Wii Sport (FREE with the hardware!!!) the lovely Red Steel, Far Cry Vengeance, NFS:C, Trauma Centre etc etc? Zelda isn't the only important launch game. it's just the most important to Big N fans.

makingmusic476
makingmusic476

There are other ps3 launch titles than just these. Resistance: Fall of Man, Motorstorm, Rainbow Six: Vegas, and quite a few others are planned for launch as well. The launch doesn't suck just because the usual multi-plat companies are developing multi-plat games. :roll:

Oni
Oni

Slash_out: "I have an x360, but if I didn't have the money, just to play Zelda: Twilight Princess, i would be ready to exchange it for a Wii" Just remember how long it took them to come out with that game. Remember the Nintendo "delay" factor. Nintendo makes great games, but at the cost of many delays. I trust the Wii will have a 1:9 ratio of Great :Mediocer titles. So I guess that's good news you don't have to sell your xbox!

SavoyPrime
SavoyPrime

Wow, most of those Wii titles that will be available for launch are pure crap. The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess will definitely save that launch.

AceXdude05
AceXdude05

LOL. Who but rich people would want to buy a $600 console at launch just to play these games which are most also comming to x360 (for us who have one already). Sony is becoming notorious. No wonder Software is making armored core for x360, with so little shipment of PS3's it wouldn't make sense to lesave it on one console and make very little from it.

flip55flip
flip55flip

"pridex Who ever is buying a PS3 looks like they will just be looking at it for a while untill they actually get some games....Wait theres madden my bad. haha" ... unlike the PSP which had games at launch and then... oh, no more good games. (Except ...?)

pridex
pridex

Who ever is buying a PS3 looks like they will just be looking at it for a while untill they actually get some games....Wait theres madden my bad. haha

Slash_out
Slash_out

Yeah but if you add Ubisoft games, and Nintendo's games for launch. Everything changes. I have an x360, but if I didn't have the money, just to play Zelda: Twilight Princess, i would be ready to exchange it for a Wii :p.

chrisdojo
chrisdojo

that would be quite LOL if the ps3 only had a couple games at launch (all from sony of course) also, check out that list. MANY are on both Wii and ps3 (and probably x360 too). so..... why not just get the $50 version on Wii?

LosDaddie
LosDaddie

:lol: :lol: Devs just need to focus on the great Xbox360 and forget about the PS3 for at least a couple of years. By then the Ps3 might have proven that it can be a viable platform for them. Devs are definitely going to notice that their game(s) sell great on the Xbox360 anyway. Go, Wii60!!!:D

Mr_Bodywave
Mr_Bodywave

its even worse--all 11 of those titles listed above for PS3 are going to be on Xbox360 or are already.

GrimBee
GrimBee

The wii has 15 games, the ps3 has 11.. and out of that 11.. 7 of them arent already coming out for the wii. Man, that is a really bad lineup next to a console like nearly quarter the price of a ps3.

shizwill03
shizwill03

Whoa, what a crappy launch list. WAY worse than the 360s.

Hayabusa_san
Hayabusa_san

Overall mediocre games are always to be expected at a systems launch, for a multitude of reasons that have all been no doubt heard before, various times. So I'm not particularly worried with this. It's all a matter of waiting it out...

ftjx
ftjx

Nothing here beats the x360

faizali86
faizali86

i remember when people thought ps3 will have a good game lineup at launch(last year). lol

ewjim
ewjim

New games on new system ALWAYS less than mediocre...

2TrickedOut
2TrickedOut

Not a great set of launch games yet. Call of Duty 3,Need for Speed Carbon,Fight Night Round 3 will need a better set of launch games for me to pay my 600.00 right away.

GFofgaming
GFofgaming

Call Of Duty 3 looks good. Rainbow Six is also a launch title. Many so many titles r not listed which is available for launch and this just makes PS3 look bad, everyone smacks PS3 these days. I only want to say, u r taking on a company with 10 years of dominance.