Analyst: eBay top holiday console retailer?

Lazard Capital Markets releases October NPD expectations, expects online auction house to do big business on new systems.

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In recent years, console launches have been predictably accompanied by a handful of stories. There's the "people waited in line for days" story, the "launch day theft" story, and the "console fetches ridiculous prices on eBay" story. That last story has become so common that one analyst today told investors eBay could be the biggest seller of new systems this holiday season.

In a note detailing his expectations of the industry-tracking NPD Group's US sales figures for October, Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian predicted that "eBay may emerge as the No. 1 new console retailer this holiday." Sebastian said his research had already found more than 2,000 completed auctions for preorders of the new PlayStation 3 and Wii, with both systems selling for about 250 percent of their suggested retail price. The $599 PS3 is fetching an average of $1,500, according to Sebastian, while the $249 Wii is typically going for about $550.

As for the NPD October tallies, Sebastian expects US console sales to be up between 15 percent and 20 percent, a more reserved point of view than that expressed last week by Pacific Crest Securities analyst Evan Wilson. With last October's game sales tallying up to $365 million, Sebastian's expected tally falls somewhere between $420 million and $438 million.

Sebastian also noted that retailers scaled back their preholiday orders last year as current-gen software declined in advance of the Xbox 360 launch. However, he hasn't seen the same caution from them this year, calling the handheld sector "healthy" and the PS2 market "resilient." He pegged Splinter Cell Double Agent, Madden NFL 07, Tiger Woods PGA Tour 07, FIFA 07, Bully, and Scarface as games among the month's biggest movers.

Discussion

42 comments
anamnawshad
anamnawshad

A lot of people will get owned there....:lol:

icym
icym

Well, if the rich and very well off can afford t hem, let them. They play games too and help keep the market going for more development of game and the next gen of consoles. The bottom line is, as long as they spend (wisely or not), our entertainment won't end anytime soon! Ahh... capitalism.

cjcr_alexandru
cjcr_alexandru

How stupid can people be? Well, it looks that they can be very stupid.

emitsu97
emitsu97

Ebay isn't a retailer...of anything.

GrimBee
GrimBee

good news for ebay, bad news for people who dont like to get scammed! Ebay are really cracking down on people this christmas, but I think the sheer amount of stuff being sold on there will be far too crazy for them to track.. Im glad Nintendo are trying a worldwide launch, it seems to be working!

chrisdojo
chrisdojo

wow. maybe just wait to buy the system yourself for retail price? just a thought.

KingofTrolls
KingofTrolls

People are just crazy. Why would you spend that kinda money just to have a PS3 right away when 90% of the games are on the 360 and nothing major is coming out until late next year. Ebay will be flooded with auctions but not all of them will cash out you wait and see.

TryMe01
TryMe01

this will highlight how desperate people will get when wanting to own a next gen console, shame really

wwonka666
wwonka666

This is sad, really really sad for gamers everywhere. Rich people are the only ones that get to beta test the PS3 this year. And those people paying ridiculous amounts of money for the Wii? They are out of their mind, Nintendo will have enough supply through the holidays to meet demand (at least I hope).

FormulaTroll
FormulaTroll

I sold my Wii preorder on eBay. Here's a clue for all of you who think I did something wrong: When someone is willing to give you $560 plus shipping for an item you paid $250 for, you go for it! I started the auction at $1 and had no reserve, so I gouged no one. The market set the price.

BigJ411
BigJ411

Cult_of_Cthulhu surely this is against the law, I know theres a free market economy and products will find thier own value but c'mon! $1500 for a PS3? I thought everyone was complaining how expensive it was, now you want to pay almost tripple the price? Im a 360 owner but I wasnt the hugest fan of that purchase I made 6 months ago the only game that has made my 360 move to the front of my entertainment system is Gears of War which by the way is amazing but the bottom line you fanboys lack a clear view on whether the Ps3 is going to be a sucess or not. I believe it will still outpace the 360 in sales in the long run but not as huge a margin as last generation (which stood at about 75 million more Ps2s sold around the globe than the original Xbox) and Cult stated a point already all I hear is you fanboys complain about how expensive the systems going to be.....well looks like people can afford it throws that arguement out the window no doesnt it?

JollyJake
JollyJake

Hahahahahahaha... That is funny! Jolly Jake

mhder
mhder

It's not like a game console is a life or death product so the only party to blame is the e-bay seller

Concrete-Al
Concrete-Al

What is the highes anyone has seen somebody pay for a game console on ebay the highest i saw was 2,350?? ANyone seen higher?

ocdog45
ocdog45

so true. i'll be honest about it, and tell you your gonna get screwed auctioning for my ps3, for a tripple price.

paranoiasurviva
paranoiasurviva

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

saulabi
saulabi

you can watch blue-ray movies

blueflamedino
blueflamedino

One ebay is an auction site, not a retailer. Two, Sony should stop this unless the sales are done Sony unofficially then which it can't be stopped but I doubt it. And three, think about it. What are you gonna do with that PS3 after clocking 100 hrs on Resistance? Let it sit there all alone and while you hang out on forums all day talking about waiting for new releases? play old games on your new machine when it was cheaper to just use your old one? stare at it for periods of long times? Cry that there are not enough games? So my point is that anyone willing to jump the gun is a loyal dog or is just plain stupid, especially when you pay more for an already expensive piece of hardware.

chromium42
chromium42

Don't blame the ebay sellers for this phenomenon; the first guilty party is the console manufacturers, who used to stockpile prior to launch so that there was enough supply to meet demand. The second party to blame are the idiots who actually pay a 250% markup bidding on ebay auctions; if people didn't pay the prices, then the sellers wouldn't ask for it.

gametester1424
gametester1424

Grrr, you bloody eBay monsters! It never used to be this way. I have bought all of my systems day one without trouble. The only time I bought at a midnight sale was the Dreamcast and if I remember right, that was the first time that option was available at retailers. This just makes me sick to think of having to wait in line or paying more than SRP. I hope that all you people selling on eBay burn!

iamcool2121
iamcool2121

ebay is such a ripoff for game consoles i mean yeah i wanted a xbox 360 last year but i waited for the 360 supply to be steady and i wouldnt play 3x the ammount for one and look what happen im getting a 360 this year all you have to do is wait and you will get what you want...... like i am

ZabuzaR
ZabuzaR

Retailing consists of the sale of goods/merchandise for personal or household consumption... So the analyst is not retarded. Other then that Ebay does not surpirze me in these statistics. Ebay is the biggest online shop and auction site anyways.

wooooode
wooooode

Ebay is not a retailer so that analyst is retarded. But I could agree say a good percentage of PS3's will reach Ebay in hopes of profit. Sony should pay Ebay a decent sum to block all PS3 sales for the first month, they could give them like $50 grand and I am sure Ebay would do it.

darunia106
darunia106

This is becoming quite a serious problem. I'm aware that some people sell stuff on Ebay for a living but they should be selling other things besides launch consoles at inflated prices. It hurts the gamer who wants to play the system even though it's in short supply.

Spindoc_SEI
Spindoc_SEI

Who cares if you get the system first day or not? Both systems are going to be plentiful by the middle of next year anyway. Whoever will pay 3 times the price to get either of these systems first day or for Christmas is an absolute idiot.

goat2001
goat2001

I'll sell one of mine on ebay once I get it. That shouldn't be a problem considering I was first in line.

Natdaddy
Natdaddy

what a contradictory statment cthulhu....did you read your post?

jaredgood1
jaredgood1

I'm all for capitalism, but a person has to be lazy to spend that much for a PS3 or Wii. If you really want a console at launch, you shouldn't have a problem getting up early and waiting in line. I waited in line for 15 hours to get a PS2 on launch day, and am prepared to do the same for a Wii (and I'll still have money to buy things like... games).

Cult_of_Cthulhu
Cult_of_Cthulhu

surely this is against the law, I know theres a free market economy and products will find thier own value but c'mon! $1500 for a PS3? I thought everyone was complaining how expensive it was, now you want to pay almost tripple the price?

Gamepro2421
Gamepro2421

when do you think would be the best time to put the PS3s on Ebay? right at launch or maybe wait a week until people fully realise how limited they will be?

HasShah1
HasShah1

wait till the North American supply officially runs out, oh I can't wait to sell my two ps3's then, wonder what kind of money they'll fetch... $2k for sure, but the sky's the limit...

WolfSkill5544
WolfSkill5544

Of course Ebay is gonna be the #1 retailer, all those desperate gamers will get their ps3 and wii from there, I don't blame them. If I had the money i would too. Gotta love the new consoles though

soul_motor
soul_motor

I kinda get PS3 on eBay, but the Wii should be so much more plentiful. Even if you don't get in on launch day, you should get one before Christmas. Again I could be wrong...

Autolycus
Autolycus

considering, from posts i have read online and in forums, about 90% of the people that bought the PS3, bought it to sell it online for a profit, there arent going to be many people willing to buy it and if they are not a jacked up price...

Koroshiya-San
Koroshiya-San

Well, if you realy want your console you have to pay whatever they sell them for on eBay. It's not really a problem that these things are happening, because if people pay so much then people will charge that much.

Yuck_Too
Yuck_Too

Personally I'm setting the buyout at an even $2k for my 2nd PS3 And I don't think they are pathetic for doing so...just have more money. Pathetic is standingin line 9-days waiting.

Sociologist
Sociologist

Anybody who buys a marked up console on Ebay is pathetic. Bottom line.