Analyst: 30 percent of US Wii-equipped by 2011

Merrill Lynch's Yoshiyuki Kinoshita predicts 30 percent of American and one third of Japanese homes will contain Nintendo's new console in four years.

Yesterday, industry-research firm NPD Funworld reported that the Wii is the US' best-selling console at present. Shortly thereafter, the Wednesday edition of the Financial Times contained a bold prediction about the console's future--which he believes will be brighter than anyone previously thought.

A report in the The Financial Times quotes one of Tokyo's more prominent game analysts, Merrill Lynch's Yoshiyuki Kinoshita, as being beyond bullish on the Wii. He told the UK-based business daily that he expects the console, which has appealed to nongamers via its motion-sensing capabilities, to be in 30 percent of US homes by 2011. In Japan, Kinoshita expects a full third of households to have the machine in four years.

But while such predictions are the boon--or bane--of console-war partisans, they are just that--predictions. And, among analysts, those are in no short supply. Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter foresees the currently third-place PlayStation 3 as winning in the long haul due to its processing brawn and high-storage Blu-ray drive. Others predict any Sony surge will be undermined by an Xbox 360 price cut, perhaps as early as this year.

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200 comments
mpeg3s
mpeg3s

MS will be forced to lower the price soon. Either that or become number 3. Remember the PS2 is still outselling everything but the WII.

ert47
ert47

woah.... a third and 30%!!! Why dont you just say a third for both? or put them in the same unit? theres only a difference of 3.3%... Don't mind me... Im gunna sit here with closed ears... [sarcasm] "What is so intresting about the Wii? There aren't really any good games on it... if you say Wario Ware Smooth Moves, I will be avoiding it like the Plague [/sarcasm] as I already had the misfortune of buying Wario Ware Touched and getting bored of it in 5 mins [sarcasm] and I have no intrest in Zelda as it is the same rehashed storyline nicked from MP2 stuffed in a package with Zelda on the front...[/sarcasm] Super Mario Sunshine sucked, what will make Galaxy any different? Im just waiting for Smash Bros Brawl...

king_pin_87
king_pin_87

kavadias1981: Just remember that this is due to the games, not the controller! So all those that think the Wii is just a fad and will go away, take a reality pill, because this console is going to be the next PS2.

Right, the DS is selling because the games are different to console games while the PSP just has PS2 hand-me-downs. And metioning that the games selling the DS kind of explains to me why the Wii will go away, because it is ONLY suceeding because of the controller. Other than Zelda, the Wii is just a bunch of tech demos and mini games, when 3rd party developers have tried to make use to the Wiimote (Far Cry, Call of Duty, Tony Hawk) they have done average to poor jobs. The Eyetoy went away because it was a fad, and so will the Wii. When you love a fad, you will refuse to admit it is one (like many Pokemon fans did). It will not be the next PS2, I don't think any of the consoles this gen will match the dominance of the PS2.

And besides, appealing to the Casuals has its downfalls, mainly being that they are less likely to spend a lot on games and kids are probably only going to get games on there B'days and Christmas. The hardcore gamers will buy more games, more often, and while the wii may have a big install base, why develop games for it when the audience keeps there hands out of there pockets? Its like selling Jewellery to Ethiopia rather than australia, Ethiopia has 75 million people while Australia has 20 million, but more australians will buy jewellery. Developers will realised this and make more games for PS3 and 360, and the wii's sales will eventually suffer in the long haul.

kavadias1981
kavadias1981

Why do non-Wii owners assume that the Wii is selling just because it is motion sensitive? The DS is selling because it has software that appeals to the mass market and non-gamer. This is the reason the Wii is selling so well. When Nintendogs, Animal Crossing, Brain Age and other such titles appear on the Wii there will be a massive surge in sales. Just remember that this is due to the games, not the controller! So all those that think the Wii is just a fad and will go away, take a reality pill, because this console is going to be the next PS2.

kavadias1981
kavadias1981

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

FallenOneX
FallenOneX

I think the problem people have here is the definition of the term "hardcore gamer". It does not meant that all of your games must include sex, violence, 300 hour gamplay, or online options. It doesn't mean you own XX system because it has YY game. It means that you play numerpous games across numerous systems. Just because you play Halo, GOW, RE, or any other games that feature a lot of guts, guns, and gore doesn't mean S***! That would be for the more "mature" gamer, and I used that term very lightly. A true "Hardcore Gamer" , IMHO, has more than 6 consoles (still operational) at their house, with at least 4 of them hooked up at any given time. For the sake of the younger gamers PS2, PS3, Wii, and 360 can count as two systems. NO, I will not allow you to count your PS3 as three, adding your PS2 and PS3 together to equal 4 systems, or counting the emulators on your PC. One of those systems has to be at least 10 years old, unless they pulled a Big N and rereleased the hardware a few years back. Not going to argue PC vs Consoles, it's a matter of preference, but HG's have favorites spread across both formats. Another requirment is a handheld that you actually use for gaming, not a portable movie device. HG's can play Pokemon for breakfast, Halo at brunch, some sports game at lunch, C&C for dinner with RE for dessert, and FF as a midnight snack. A hardcore gamer may have a favorite console maker, but he won't deny great titles on other systems. Now if you follow my (misguided) logic here, you'll see that the Hardcore Gamers Club has no room for fanboys.

Tenjikuronin
Tenjikuronin

I think a common mistake that many people make is assuming that a company's main audience are the "hardcore" gamers. The fact of the matter is, the target audience for most companies is actually the casual gamer. "Hardcore" gamers are always a plus, but they usually are not the driving force in a console's sales. That honor goes to the average consumer, as shown by the popularity of the PS2 and now the Wii.

anarchicgoth
anarchicgoth

Maybe- put me in the percentage though lol

ragek1ll589
ragek1ll589

well with a cheaper price and wider audience to appeal to, this doesnt suprise me

crills
crills

what all you nonbelievers in here need to remember is the wii is realy a big ds for your house so just like everybody fell in love with the gameplay on the ds they will love the gameplay even more on the wii just cause its a bigger screen better looking games and the fact that you can download the classics witch ever way it will sell just like the ds if any thing better.the wii is truly the only real next gen console not for its graphics but for its controller cause it changes the way you feel when you playing games and the gameplay the days of aiming your little cross hair with sticks are gone now its just like in the real world and even if its only in 480p i still would rather play a fps on the wii before any thing else beside a pc same goes for raceing games and trust me metroid prime 3 will be the best console fps this year just like smash brother will be the figther this year just like mario galazys will be the best platformer this year . so yea i think nintendo will reach that number way sooner just look at the ps2 it was not that great but it sold more then 100 million and i do remember it being more then 250 when it came out so the wii all ready got that head start so when the sony and ms lower there prices we will see a 200$ WII

rjs927
rjs927

Before Wii Nintendo (GC) was the underdog. First PS@ and Xbox had their day and now many are realizing that Nintendo is far superior.

gatsbythepig
gatsbythepig

Undoubtedly one of the best console makers proves it again.

luigimario_64
luigimario_64

Nintendo is preparing a lot of flagship titles for the Wii: SSBB, Metroid Prime 3, SMG, SPM, etc. Since TP came out right at launch, there will likely be another Zelda title in the Wii's lifetime, and they have yet to tap into Kirby and Star Fox. I'm sure F-Zero will make an appearance, and there is a lot of third party support for the Wii right now. I don't see any lack of sustenence for core gamers.

theKSMM
theKSMM

Frankly, I have a strong concern about the long-term viability of the Wii to hardcore gamers. My guess is that while it may continue to appeal to casual gamers, the already-low-end graphics will really start to look long in the tooth toward the end of the cycle. Any price cuts in the 360 or PS3 could shrink the price differences greatly too, diminishing the appeal for core gamers. Still, I think the ease-of-use and fun party games will contribute to the continued growth of the system. But in a couple years, core gamers may be looking for more firepower than the Wii can offer.

MasterAsh42
MasterAsh42

I'd be jazzed, but analysts also once believed the Wii's name change a wrong move. . . So, feh. . .

shaden79
shaden79

at least the wii is keeping some sort of game flow. SSX Blur in a few days, Wario ware a few weeks ago, and neither Mario nor super smash bros. has yet to come out of the depths. I'll admit i am slightly surprised by the wii's amazing success but if it proves one thing to the gaming community its this: try something different!! though i would like to see a drop in the ridiculously high VC prices

pencilpusher69
pencilpusher69

The future of gaming doesn't start, until Sony says so. Crap, I think somebody spiked Sony's punch... azwer "wii hasnt got a single good game on it so why are people buying it and everybody knows that ps 3 will win the war in the end " Please sell me some of your weed. Sony loves guys like you, the faithful, the ones who would in fact buy a PS3 even if there were no games for it, which there aren't, just because it's PLAYSTATION. Anybody who looks at the industry with any scrutiny can see that Sony have officially blown this generation. PS3, meet Betamax.

VegetaMaelstrom
VegetaMaelstrom

Why can't this analyst give a good, solid number like 41 million Wii's will sell in the US and 17 million Wii's in Japan by 2011? Why does he throw out a generic percentage of a constantly changing condition without any supporting facts or figures to let us know what he is basing that percentage on? Like how many homes does he expect the US and Japan to have in 2011? How did he come up with those predictions? Little common sense omissions like that force me to doubt the accuracy of these forecasts. For now I am going with possible but not probable.

wooooode
wooooode

Of that prediction the Wii will sell well over 100M. It sounds a little to high for me but I think it will sell great.

coldfire447
coldfire447

both the 360 and wii will sell great in yhe US and Japan in the upcoming yeasrs but as for the PS3, i think its doomed

TamaRed12
TamaRed12

How can no one see this happening this is gonna be so true theres no way (with the explosive sales of wii) that this is not feasable.

ChitoKiryoku
ChitoKiryoku

it's ridiculous how many people go 'there's no way they can sell that many' when the PS2 sold more than this guy's predicting. Do you really think the Wii will do worse?

moocow21
moocow21

lol I can't see this happening. Not even close to that percentage.

mysteriously
mysteriously

I have not seen any in Toronto, Canada since January and they are so sketchy about the actual supply for sale. I think that Nintendo should start shipping more Wiis and keep the momentum up or it's going to be bad loss for them. I have one and everyone that I have invited over to play is waiting to buy one (At least 25 people in my circle). So Nintendo start shipping please!

ArfenZard15
ArfenZard15

Come on! :D News makes me happy when it's good news :D

funky_muzic
funky_muzic

Even before the Wii (or Revolution as it was known) came out, people were under-estimating it. People still under-estimate the Wii, even though the systems still fly off the store shelves. First off Wii will be practically immune to any XBox 360 price cut. We know that Nintendo is already making a profit of each actual console sold, so it would be very easy for them to match any 360 price cut. Also, I really can't believe that some people think motion-sensing is a fad. Have you played the Wii? Tennis, bowling, baseball? The controller is amazing. Now if you do think it's a fad will you still feel the same when Nintendo comes out the the "VR" helmet (not announced yet, but it will happen at some point)? I'm sure the helmet would sense motion as well. Imagine playing a FPS and when you turn your head you actually get to see the game as if your character is turning his head. Look up, look down, and still use the Wii Mote to aim and shoot your competition. This is the first step into true "Virtual Reality" gaming. Motion-sensing is NOT a fad, it's the FUTURE.

JAREDJR
JAREDJR

I've got mine. My Xbox 360 collects dust right now. I'm getting bored with all of these FPS or 3PS. Once Halo 3 comes out everyone will love that, Xbox 360 sales will shoot up through the roof, and then everyone will wait for the next ultra-violent shoot em up, hose er down, rip off her clothes, chop off his head yadda yadda yadda Xbox Game of the Year. I prefer a little bit of something different, so Im glad I have my Wii, cause I dont know how much more I can take.

KoruKinshi
KoruKinshi

Azwer, you're a brain dead. Go play with your giant enemy crab, okay? This is a bit overshooting, if you ask me. I don't think 30% of the US will have a Wii. A large chunk will, yes...but 30% seems a bit too good to be true. As for Sony bringing up the rear, they're going to have to do some massive changes and quick if they want to keep up. Blu-Ray was one of their deathknells in this. Same thing with launch titles and sheer arrogance.

superjon6
superjon6

Hello i would like to buy a wii. Sorry, you won't be able to get one until 2011. Well that gives me a reson to keep my 360.

bgres077
bgres077

I want a Wii now! Not in 2011!

ookiig
ookiig

The best thing about articles talking about the Wii's success are the fanboys making fools of themselves. "Just a fad!" "It's for 1 year olds!" "Kiddie games!" Fanboys, remember what you were saying back when the DS and PSP launched? Stuff like, 'It's just a gimmick!"? Learn from the past and keep stupid comments to yourself.

123625
123625

The thing i hate is when people say that one console is crappy every one on this site who Who bags the wii Is saying ps3 is better which it may be but they refuse to see the wii is a good console. im not saying ps3 is bad im just saying open up ur minds a bit and if ur gonna say someting bad about a console give good reasons for it .

bloodyrooster
bloodyrooster

PS3 in comparison to the Wii is like Game Gear versus Game Boy. Sure Game Gear has color and better graphics, but it costs a fortune, nobody knows or cares what its capable of and it will probably never make good use of a high-storage cd rom in its existance. I thought it was Sony's trademark to have players use multiple disks when playing one game?

nplovell
nplovell

Huh? Have you tried a Wii before? Maybe by "good game" you mean a specific franchise that you play. Try Wario Ware, Wii Sports, Zelda or Rayman. I own all of them and find them very fun. People probably thought the same way about Nintendo vs. Sony back with the N64 and PS, since Nintendo dominated the field beforehand. I'm not saying that the PS3 won't win, but I don't take it as a foregone conclusion that they will either.

azwer
azwer

wii hasnt got a single good game on it so why are people buying it and everybody knows that ps 3 will win the war in the end

Tenjikuronin
Tenjikuronin

I can definitely see the Wii following in the footsteps of the DS, especially when it comes to Japan.

nplovell
nplovell

That's not right. They are predicting that 30% of US *households* will own a Wii, not 30% of the US population. I couldn't find the number of US households by a quick web search, but I'm betting that you should divide your number by 3 or so.

SoralinkGS
SoralinkGS

ChitoKiryoku: "According to wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population) America has a population of about 300 million and Japan about 127 million. So if this guy's right that tallies up to over 132 million units sold, and that's just America and Japan. That's already more than the PS2 has sold worldwide as of 31 dec 06 (115.36 million, according to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Playstation_2)" Thats the amount of people, not the amount of homes in the US and Japan. This article is talking about 30% of homes will have a Wii in the US and 33.3% of homes in Japan will have a Wii.

djayshaggy
djayshaggy

In my opinion, many anylists don't understand the appeal to non-gamers that Nintendo's new consoles have. That's why some are still insistant that the PS3 will win. The look at the wrong things in history to come up with their judgements, and they don't even realize that this race is different than any other, and new rules apply. Nintendo is appealing to both gamers and a new demographic, which means that this race is like nothing that's happened before, so there is no past to look to for your predictions.

XNbuck
XNbuck

I think 30% is plausible. I have only seen Wiis in a store once (during the big snow storm that hit the NE a couple of weeks ago when only idiots like me were out shopping) and know many people who are actively looking for them. My dad, who has not played a video game since the days of the 2600 wants one. And my father in law who has never played a video game is hooked (pun intended) on the Fishin' Hole in Z:TP. They are both 50+ and have the disposable income to spend on a new system, but dont want to spend $500+ for a "toy" (lets be honest, that is what all consles are). It is incredible how many people who have been turned off by the complexity of video games are willing to give the Wii a try. And to try it is to buy it.

killeryoda85
killeryoda85

You have to hand it to Nintendo, they have really come up trumps with this console. Even if these projections are inaccurate, its undeniable that the Wii is a huge success.

Konfusion
Konfusion

If Microsoft drops the price and/or releases a black-color version, they will pwn the market. In fact, I just don't understand why it's not happening yet.

crills
crills

i see that happening in like 2 or three years not 2011.its only been 4 months and look how many wii are sold.and theres not even that many great games yet just wait till mario g and metriod 3 the next resident evil and smash brothers brawl and sadness to name a few then we wiill see the wii realy sell

jknight5422
jknight5422

Complete _hubris_ without any data to back it up. Analysts do this all the time! I suppose we should listen & believe Pat Robertson's prediction about a massive terrorist attack in 2007, the religious evangelical priest turned futurist analyst...